Darran Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 (edited) Last Saturday wasn't good, but it does seem to be one bad day followed by one good day at the moment so hopefully that means it will be a profitable weekend. I have 6 bets in the 3 National League's this Saturday. Maidenhead v Solihull Maidenhead have only lost one of their last 5 games, but they haven't played anyone as good as Solihull in that spell. They lost to bottom side Braintree, Got 4 points in their two games against Aldershot, beat a severely weakened Gateshead 1-0 and then on Tuesday night beat Maidstone. So they have played 3 of the 4 teams below them in the table and a one team who were struggling to put 11 fit men on the pitch. Solihull are now in 3rd place and are just 3 points off Leyton Orient. They did need a replay on Tuesday night to overcome Halifax in the FA Trophy, but obviously with Maidenhead also playing on Tuesday that shouldn't come into it. They also landed the max bet against Gateshead in their last game easier than the 2-1 scoreline suggests. They should be odds on to win this so 11/10 with Betway looks a big price. Maidstone v Dagenham & Redbridge I was half tempted to put Maidstone up as a bet on Tuesday night, but thankfully was put off in the end as they lost 4-2 to Maidenhead. That made it 11 losses at home in the league with just the one victory. Whoever comes in as manager has to improve that home form fast. It is often said that a 3G pitch is an advantage for the home team, but it clearly isn't in this case as Maidstone have won 6 times away from home. Dagenham caused us a painful lost a couple of weeks ago after coming from 3-0 down to go 4-3 up and then draw 4-4 with Boreham Wood. Since Dagenham scored two very late goals to beat Hartlepool I have put them up 3 times as a bet and they have failed to win each time. Fair to say they owe us won again and they do look a cracking be here. Their away form has been strong winning 4 of their last 6 and only losing 1-0 to Sutton and Orient. They performed with credit at Salford in the FA Trophy last weekend and they should be favourites to win this. At Marathons' 83/50 they look a really good bet. Salford v Gateshead Salford have certainly bounced back from their tricky spell where it looked like they may have fallen out of contention for the title. So on the back of 4 losses on the bounce they then went and beat Wrexham and Leyton Orient without conceding a goal, which was important for them as defensively they had looked very suspect in recent weeks. Gateshead might not be quite as weak as they were against Maidenhead or Solihull, but they have lost manager Steve Watson to York in the meantime. This could hardly be a tougher game for the new manager given Salford have only conceded 13 goals at home losing just one and obviously they have such an impressive team. I think this could be a fairly easy win for the home side as I don't think Gateshead are anywhere near to a side who are 8th in the table at the moment. I think they can overcome the -1 handicap which is 17/10 with Betway. Bradford Park Avenue v Blyth Spartans Picking up just 1 point in their last four have meant BPA have fallen from the top spot in the National League North table. It was a poor loss last week to FCUM as well given they are in the relegation zone and had a few players missing. This game should be even harder as well given Blyth haven't lost in 10 league games now. Strangely enough their last defeat was to FCUM. They were superb in the FA Trophy last week beating Boreham Wood and they have recovered nicely after a very poor start to the season. I would have these two much closer together in the betting than the bookies have them and the 23/10 with BetVictor is well worth taking. AFC Telford v Kidderminster Telford have very similar home form to Salford in that they have only lost once and conceded just 12 goals. Their away form looks like it will stop them being possible title winners, but they are obviously bang in the play-off hunt. The one team they lost to at home was Bradford whilst they were flying so there is nothing wrong with that at all and they really ought to be shorter than the 8/5 they are with William Hill. The prices make little sense really given Kiddie are 6 points behind their hosts having played a game more. As I have mentioned a few times on here in recent weeks they have been in awful form for weeks now. They have lost 5 of their last 6 games and a win over lowly Hereford was the positive result in that spell. Not surprisingly they sacked their manager last week, but they still lost to Boston and they really do look in free fall at the moment. In my view Telford should be close to even money to win this so they look a fantastic bet. Truro v Weston-Super-Mare Ignore the fact Truro lost 5-0 to Stockport in the FA Trophy last Saturday as they played a strong team in good form plus they were pretty much down to the bare bones. They had players cup-tied as well as injured and suspended and they will be able to put out a much stronger team on Saturday. Not only that but Weston are a million miles away from being Stockport. These two teams played each other in the previous round of the FA Trophy and Truro won 4-0. That was their first game back in Truro and they are now there full time. Truro are pulling themselves away from the relegation zone and I think they will be safe. They have won 5 of their last 10 games and their 4 defeats were against Oxford City, Torquay twice and Welling. Weston are nowhere near the level of those 3 and I would be shocked if they didn't go down. There is just enough in the price at Marathon of 53/50 to make the home side a play here. Solihull 2.5pts @ 11/10 with Betway Dagenham & Redbridge 2.5pts @ 83/50 with Marathon Salford -1 1pt @ 17/10 with Betway Blyth 1pt @ 23/10 with BetVictor AFC Telford 5pts @ 2/1 with Bet365 Truro 2pts @ 53/50 with Marathon So on Twitter and the message below people have been letting me know about the Telford drift. I have been told that Kidderminster were also heavily backed last Friday before the Boston game and we obviously know how well that gamble turned out! Telford were backed after I tipped them up so some people have got a bigger price on Kidderminster thanks to me. This is far from the first time it has happened to one of my strong bets and it will be Asian money. The Asians base their bets purely on data and I actually like it when they have a different view to me mainly because it allows us to get a bigger price, but also because I am usually on the right side of the result. One that sticks out is last season when I was big on Aldershot to win at Dagenham in a teatime game on TV. This was the week when Dagenham announced they were in trouble and had sold a few players. Clearly the Aisian's took none of this into account as on Saturday afternoon all the money was on Dagenham. Aldershot duly won. Now I obviously can't guarantee Telford will win tomorrow, but what I can guarantee is they are huge value at 2/1 which is freely available with a few bookies including Bet365. I have had two Kidderminster fans on Twitter tell me they have no idea why anyone would want to back them and the fact they are even money for an away game at a team who have only failed to win 4 games at home season is just bizarre especially when you add into the mix their current form. What on earth the Asians use to come up with their bets I don't know but they would be better off doing more homework. I don't usually go in again when the price drifts, but plenty of punters do and there is nothing wrong with going against the crowd (given I often back the outsider it works for me) or in this case going against a few people in Asia! Based on the current price I am now bumping Telford up to a max bet. Basically if they had been 2/1 last night when I did my preview I would have put them up as a max bet so I am now adding a further 2 points on them. They might not win, but that price is a huge error and Telford should be the 11/10 shots. Edited January 18, 2019 by Darran Extra info on Telford bet atish29, buga00, CzechPunter and 5 others 6 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Resolvedtwo Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Hi Darran. Telfords odds hae shot up to better than 2/1 on a lot of sites, has anything changed? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neubs Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Like @Darran picks - as always... For me i will bet on Barnet. Baintree a weak Side and with very bad Home Form... Barnet on other Side with good Form and next Game is huge FA Cup Game against Brentford - but this Game is over a Week ago - so i don´t think Barnet will take this Game too easy... Odds for a Away Win are good... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yossa6133 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 6 hours ago, Resolvedtwo said: Hi Darran. Telfords odds hae shot up to better than 2/1 on a lot of sites, has anything changed? Weird, annoyingly I've already got my bet on as the prices usually go the other way! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yossa6133 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Actually made sense to cash out and replace the bet lol Upped my stake too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted January 19, 2019 Author Share Posted January 19, 2019 Yeah that is certainly one option especially if you can just cash out the stake amount which I know Bet365 do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Labrador Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I can endorse Darran's view about Kidderminster. There is no logical or sane reason why their price would have shortened. Their so-called marquee signing, Dan Bradley, has been bought back by Fylde. The only replacement is a loanee who failed to get into Brackley's team. Kidderminster are threadbare. Their decent loanee, George Waring, has departed, so their only forwards are Joe Ironside (recently returned from a loan spell at York where he couldn't make the starting XI) and Ashley Chambers who currently couldn't hit a barn, let alone a barn door. The only other striker, Kane Richards, has a three match ban for man-handling the referee last week. They have no manager - owner, football agent and chairman, Colin Gordon, has taken over the role aided and abetted by over-the-hill journeymen players Russ Penn and Jimmy O'Connor. They will struggle to fill the bench and have no players who can come on and make any impact. All things being equal, Telford should win at a canter - although this league is a nightmare to predict this season. Caveat emptor! yossa6133 and Darran 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yossa6133 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Prices come back the other way now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cc135 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Braintree vs Barnet (2) 1.90 1u Braintree played a verty dull game last game in which nothing was created, there was zero save made and they play the same lineup today. Barnet with the same lineup that won vs the Blades in the FA cup, should win... quality is much higher. yossa6133 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yossa6133 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Painful,football difficult to work out sometime. Asians have somehow picked that one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnmccain Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Late Solihull goal saving the day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted January 19, 2019 Author Share Posted January 19, 2019 Yeah thank god for the Soliull goal needed that. Asians got it right despite being very wrong. Listened to most of the 2nd half and Telford should have got 1 at least but it wasn't quite to be. Always hard when you go a goal down very early on though as it completely changes the game. That bet will win more than it loses but it wasn't to be today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnmccain Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 I've suggested it before, but surely there's a chance when so much money is wagered by foreigners, that foul play should perhaps be considered? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted January 21, 2019 Author Share Posted January 21, 2019 59 minutes ago, Johnmccain said: I've suggested it before, but surely there's a chance when so much money is wagered by foreigners, that foul play should perhaps be considered? I'm not naive enough to say that it never happens, but I don't think this is the case here. Telford tried hard to get back into the game and it didn't have the feel of one that had been fixed. Also if it was fixed highly unlikely that Telford would have ended up going off favs in the end. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Puntalot Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Fixed matches are incredibly rare, but it only takes one match for everyone to start thinking it's a much bigger phenomenon. It is miniscule though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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