3 Horse race

[Xtc12]

I was in my local betting shop over the New Year, actually, New Years Day as the missus wanted the Euro Millions done.

While there the 12.45 Fakenham race was on, in which Blu Cavalier was the 2\11 Fav .

He went on to convincingly be beaten by Cliffside Park @ 11\1 by 1 3/4 L. 

Someone commented something which I had heard before "Always back the outsider in a 3 horse race"

Can anybody check the outcome of 3 horse races when betting on

(1)the fav

(2)the outsider

and (3) the other

Thanks

[Xtc12]

Having internet probs here this morning, would someone delete the copy of this thread please or can I do it myself.

[BillyHills]

'Back the outsider of three'

Thats a saying thats been around as long as me, i dont think it actually works out

Quote

 

UK 2665 Races of which 12.25% or 326 were won by the outsider.

And would you have made a profit if you backed them all? Well the answer to that is unfortunately no, but you would lose a lot less backing the outsider in every 3 runner race than you would backing either the favourite or 2nd favourite.

Ireland level stake returns based on the SP price

• Fav -214.60
• 2nd Fav -143.14
• Outsider -104.25

 

UK level stake returns based on the SP price

• Fav -1,532.24
• 2nd Fav -481.46
• Outsider -311.92

So if you are going to bet in three runner races you will lose less money backing the outsider than either of the other two horses in the long term.

 

 

[Trotter]

cheers BH …….. that's interesting

I suppose it's one of those things where people always tap their nose knowingly and wink to their mate when the outsider of 3 goes in...…….. but when the favourite wins no one pays any attention so it doesn't impinge upon the consciousness

[Xtc12]

Any place where I could get the details BH.

[Valiant Thor]

On 1/6/2019 at 2:19 PM, Xtc12 said:

Any place where I could get the details BH.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/x42bj0moej9fwms/3 Runner Races.xlsx?dl=0

1852 Races from 12/1/02 to 6/1/2019 3 runner only races (UPDATED)

Ive  had to take down the spreadsheet as I needed the space for something else

Edited January 12, 2019 by Valiant Thor
update spreadsheet

[Xtc12]

Thanks VT will go through these and see can I come up with something to make a profit 

[Xtc12]

Just about finished year 1 2002 ...... Favs 9.46% ROI, 2nd Favs a disaster and the outsider 18.83% ROI.  

Highest Bet with the Favs  £12 or Pts

Longest Losing sequence for the outsider 13 (1 win in 23) which ran from 3rd October until 27th December. The above ROI includes this run and is still in a loss.

Edited January 11, 2019 by Xtc12
Add info

[BillyHills]

1 hour ago, Xtc12 said:

Just about finished year 1 2002 ...... Favs 9.46% ROI, 2nd Favs a disaster and the outsider 18.83% ROI.  

Highest Bet with the Favs  £12 or Pts

Longest Losing sequence for the outsider 13 (1 win in 23) which ran from 3rd October until 27th December. The above ROI includes this run and is still in a loss.

You obviously have too much time on your hands Xtc

[Xtc12]

Well with year 2 finished everything has turned upside down and the only one that is possible to carry on with is 2nd fav.

Favs had a SR of 59%, ROI dropped to -6.53%. The average bet rose to above the highest average I allow (20) to 21.11 and does not look like dropping. Probably a non runner but will check one more season.

2nd favs which was a disaster in year 1 (ROI -16%) has turned the tables around with a SR of 31%, ROI of 14,54% and a good allowance with the average bet, which stands at 10.28. 

Outsiders SR has dropped from 13% to 11%, ROI -25% and the average bet rose from 7 to 35. 

[Xtc12]

Well after year 3 2nd Favs : 276 Bets, SR 30%, ROI 9.33% with the average bet @ 12.15 

After 4 years  : 304 bets, 30% SR, ROI 9.76% with the average bet at 11.68.