jtw1 Posted June 22, 2018 Share Posted June 22, 2018 I have been following the predictions from Thestatsdontlie website [very good site imho] and have noticed quite a decent strike-rate with BTTS on games rated 70% chance or over. So i'll trial this strategy over the coming weeks and see how things pan out'' Game 1 - Singapore - YOUNG LIONS v HOME UTD - 72% chance - odds 1.57 [PaddyPower] as a wee aside i'll also keep note of the top 3 rated , whether rated 70+ or under ...2- Ecuador - DEP CUENCA v EMELEC [1.73] and 3- Jap 2 - YAMAGA v CHIBA [1.66] gs Xtc12 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted June 23, 2018 Author Share Posted June 23, 2018 2/3 Inc main selection YOUNG LIONS. 1-1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted June 24, 2018 Author Share Posted June 24, 2018 (edited) Todays over 70% selections - KONSVINGER. 1.53 REAL SALT LAKE. 1.53 HOUGANG. 1.50 GEYLANG 1.73 Sorry for late post [last 2 already into 2nd half and REAL SALT LAKE came in last night !! 1-1 Edited June 24, 2018 by jtw1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted June 24, 2018 Author Share Posted June 24, 2018 KONSVINGER 1-2 REAL SALT LAKE 1-1 HOUGANG 1-1 GEYLANG 0-3 Top rated match [Konsvinger] comes in again. Mon --- DEGERFORS v FALKENBERGS 74.5% odds - 1.57 [Sweden] 2nd and 3rd top rated are the games at BRAGE 69% 1.62 [sweden] and MARIEHAMN 64% 1.90 [bet365] [finland] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted June 24, 2018 Share Posted June 24, 2018 Good to see you back, JTW. Good luck with this trial. I always go for "value" - so, at 70% probability, any odds over 1.43 represent good value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted June 25, 2018 Author Share Posted June 25, 2018 Cheers Grex ..just need to find out the best way to caplitalise ... DEGERFORS v FALKENBERGS 0-2 Not too disheartened as Degerfors had 16 goal attempts and missed a 58th min penalty !! BRAGE 3-2 MARIEHAMN 2-1 So i'll try a few staking plans and see how they pan out .. 1- Fixed stake win on the top rated match rated over 70%+ 2- a rolling double on the top match provided both are rated 70% + over 2 days. 3- Fixed stake double on the top 2 rated that day 4- Fixed stake Treble on the top 3 rated that day Virtual profit/loss so far on all 4 plans 1- 2/3 with a 10pt win on each would have returned a profit of +1.00pt 2- 1 win , 1 loss for a virtual profit of 4.02pts 3- 1 win from 3 for a virtual profit of 3.41pts 4- 1 win from 3 for a virtual profit of 5.11pts Tuesday - Singapore - TAMPINES v HOME UTD - 70& - Odds 1.57 2nd top - INTER TURKU - 64,50% 1.70 3rd top - ORGRYTE - 61% - 1.80 Both Sweden only1woz and LEE-GRAYS 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted June 26, 2018 Author Share Posted June 26, 2018 (edited) TAMPINES v HOME UTD - 70& - Odds 1.57 0-1 INTER TURKU - 64,50% 1.70 2-3 ORGRYTE - 61% - 1.80 1-2 Strategy 1 = -11pts Strategy 2 = -5.98pts Strategy 3 = -6.69pts Strategy 4 = -4.89pts Weds - Iceland - KOPAVOGUR v FRAM 75% ODDS = 1.50 [PaddyPower] 2nd top - ZOO KERICHO [Kenya !!] 66.50% , 2.00 0-0 3rd top - GOIAS [Brazil] 58% , 1.80 2-1 Edited June 27, 2018 by jtw1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted June 27, 2018 Author Share Posted June 27, 2018 Waiting for the Icelandic match to finish [1-0 at present] Thursday - No bets Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted June 28, 2018 Author Share Posted June 28, 2018 KOPAVOGUR v FRAM 75% ODDS = 1.50 1-0 2nd top - ZOO KERICHO [Kenya !!] 66.50% , 2.00 0-0 3rd top - GOIAS [Brazil] 58% , 1.80 2-1 Disappointing wednesday ....heres Fridays picks - 1- Iceland - IR REYKAVIK 72% - odds 1.44 [mightly low but it's a trial] 2- Iceland - THROTTUR 69% - odds 1.44 '' 3- There are 3 games on 63% - POTI [Georgia] @ 1.67 , The other 2 are in Brazil ...CSA @ 2.1 !! and ATLETICO GO @ 2.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted July 1, 2018 Author Share Posted July 1, 2018 (edited) 1- Iceland - IR REYKAVIK 72% - odds 1.44 [mightly low but it's a trial] 0-4 2- Iceland - THROTTUR 69% - odds 1.44 '' 0-2 3- There are 3 games on 63% - POTI [Georgia] @ 1.67 3-6 CSA @ 2.10 !! 2-2 and ATLETICO GO @ 2.00 2-1 That was interesting as the 2 ridiculously low odds side both failed while the 2.00 and 2.10 from Brazil 2 both end BTTS . SAT 1 - Singapore - BRUNEI DPMM 85% - ODDS - 1.36 !! RESULT = 2-1 2 - Iceland - MAGNI 76.5% - 1.45 RESULT - 2-0 3- Sweden - DEGERFORS 72% - 1.57 RESULT - 3-1 SUN - 1 - NEW ENGLAND 73.5% - 1.53 - RESULT - 3-2 2 - SAN JOSE 71.50% - 1.50 - RESULT - 3-3 3 - LEVANGER [norway] - 70.50% - 1.33 RESULT - 2-3 Edited July 2, 2018 by jtw1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted July 2, 2018 Author Share Posted July 2, 2018 (edited) Monday - HAFNARFJORDUR [Iceland] - 74.50% - 1.53 2-3 2- VANCOUVER WHITECAPS - 55.50% - 1.70 - RESULT - 0-1 3- LILLESTROM - 50% - 1.53 - RESULT - 1-1 [98th min equaliser !!] Tuesday - None over 70% and only 3 games listed they are - 1- LDU QUITO - 65.50% - 1.57 2- SIRRIUS [sweden] - 1.61 3- NOTODDEN [Norway] - 1.61 Edited July 3, 2018 by jtw1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted July 3, 2018 Author Share Posted July 3, 2018 1- LDU QUITO - 65.50% - 1.57 2-1 2- SIRRIUS [sweden] - 1.61 1-3 3- NOTODDEN [Norway] - 1.61 1-0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robstars7 Posted July 4, 2018 Share Posted July 4, 2018 is there much value in backing prices so small in such a tough market. I know its a trial and ur just doing it for that purpose but I find btts systems really tough. My current one is the best one iv had but its still a hard market. BTW is ur statdontlie website down? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rivilearner Posted July 4, 2018 Share Posted July 4, 2018 9 hours ago, robstars7 said: is there much value in backing prices so small in such a tough market. I know its a trial and ur just doing it for that purpose but I find btts systems really tough. My current one is the best one iv had but its still a hard market. BTW is ur statdontlie website down? what system do you use? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted July 4, 2018 Author Share Posted July 4, 2018 10 hours ago, robstars7 said: is there much value in backing prices so small in such a tough market. I know its a trial and ur just doing it for that purpose but I find btts systems really tough. My current one is the best one iv had but its still a hard market. BTW is ur statdontlie website down? Still down I'm afraid....i think the odds are so low due to the high % of goals scored in some of these summer leagues. Basically I'm trying to catch an edge with their predictions with view to trying implement a strategy when the main Euro leagues kick off. But if the sites disappeared !!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real55555 Posted July 5, 2018 Share Posted July 5, 2018 Maybe try it with the Over 2 goals market? or for the more adventurous ones maybe use it for the over 2.5 goals market? Some ideas but probably you guys have thought it through as well... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted July 5, 2018 Author Share Posted July 5, 2018 (edited) Website is back up and running.... Weds - Finland - MARIEHAMN 77% Odds - 1.57 Result - 1-2 Singapore - YOUNG LIONS 66% 1.57 1-3 Iceland - THOR AKUREYRI 66% 1.55 3-1 Thurs - LA GALAXY 71% 1.57 2-2 Brazil - AVAI 70.50% 2.00 0-1 Iceland - AKUREYRI 70% 1.61 Fri - Brazil - CRICIUMA 55% 1.83 BRASIL DE PELOTAS 54% 2.10 WATERFORD 50.50% 2.00 Edited July 5, 2018 by jtw1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted July 7, 2018 Author Share Posted July 7, 2018 (edited) Fri - Brazil - CRICIUMA 55% 1.83 1-1 BRASIL DE PELOTAS 54% 2.10 0-2 WATERFORD 50.50% 2.00 1-1 Sat - Japan - CHIBA 68.50% 1.57 1-3 with 15 mins to play Ecuador - DEP CUENCA 67.50% 1.61 1-1 Singapore - BRUNEI DPMM 65.50% 1.57 2-2 Khazahkstan - KYZYLZHAR 65.50% 1.83 2-1 Brazil - LUVERDENSE 65.50% 1.91 1-1 after 40 mins Will post the totals on the virtual bets on Sunday .. Edited July 7, 2018 by jtw1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted July 7, 2018 Author Share Posted July 7, 2018 Sun - PORTLAND 74% 1.61 Sth Korea - GANGWON 72% 1.57 VANCOUVER 71% 1.57 Lets turn things on their head and have a look at BTTS - NO ...picking the bottom rated of the BTTS YES table and seeing how things pan out . 1- Belarus - VITEBSK 28.5% Odds BTTS NO = 1.75 [BETVIC] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted July 8, 2018 Author Share Posted July 8, 2018 (edited) Sun - PORTLAND 74% 1.61 2-1 Sth Korea - GANGWON 72% 1.57 1-1 VANCOUVER 71% 1.57 3-2 If i've done this correctly then the 4 staking plans will have returned - Plan 1 - +2.70pts Plan 2 - +29.50pts Plan 3 - +31.08pts Plan 4 - +55.16pts Edited July 9, 2018 by jtw1 my shit maths !! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted July 8, 2018 Author Share Posted July 8, 2018 (edited) Sat BBTS NO - Kenya -BANDARI 35% - Odds - 1.67 [betvic] 1-0 Sun BTTS NO - Belarus - VITEBSK 28.5% Odds BTTS NO = 1.75 [BETVIC] 1-0 2 wins from 2 for a virtual profit of +14.20pts Mon - Finland - SJK 34.50% Odds - 1.83 [betvic] 2-1 Mon - BTTS - YES - Sweden - HAMMARBY 64% 1.66 1-2 2 - NEW YORK CITY 60.50% 1.50 1-0 3 - Brazil - GUARANI 57% 2.00 Edited July 9, 2018 by jtw1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted July 8, 2018 Share Posted July 8, 2018 Going well, JTW. Clever... sneaking in a couple of "BTTS - NO", but still successful Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted July 9, 2018 Author Share Posted July 9, 2018 Certainly is Grex ......unfortunate with the NO bet today as ROVANIEMI mangaed a late goal in the 94th min to make it 2-1 ... BTTS NO Total = 2 wins from 3 for a profit of 4.20pts Tuesday - No selection Only 2 in the BTTS YES bracket on Tuesday with both on 55.50% ... 1- Ecuador - AUCAS - 1.83 2- Brazil - FIGUEIRENSE - 2.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted July 9, 2018 Author Share Posted July 9, 2018 Keeping an eye on those rated under 40% in the BTTS table ..JARO game finished 0-3 while the DNIPRO v ISLOCH game in Belarus currently sits at 0-0 ht. Odds for BTTS NO in the JARO match was 2.00 [padPower] and 1.70 in Belarus but that was available at 1.85 pre-kick off. The odds for BTTS NO are usually better than YES so this is something i'm definately getting interested in . 2/3 came in on Sunday at odds of 1.67 and 1.61. 2/3 came in on Sat at odds of 1.75 and 1.87 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted July 10, 2018 Author Share Posted July 10, 2018 (edited) 1- Ecuador - AUCAS - 1.83 3-1 2- Brazil - FIGUEIRENSE - 2.00 1-2 1- Fixed stake win on the top rated match rated over 70%+ - +2.70pts 2- a rolling double on the top match provided both are rated 70% + over 2 days. - +29.50pts 3- Fixed stake double on the top 2 rated that day - +57.68pts 4- Fixed stake Treble on the top 3 rated that day - +55.16pts6 Wed - Singapore - HOME UTD 78% - 1.80. 0-2 2- Sth Korea - INCHEON 74.50% - 1.61. 3-3 3- China - SHIIJAZHUANG 72.50% - 1.66. 3-3 BTTS NO - Sth Korea - ULSAN HYUNDAI 37.50% - 2.15. 0-2 Edited July 11, 2018 by jtw1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted July 11, 2018 Author Share Posted July 11, 2018 (edited) Wed - Singapore - HOME UTD 78% - 1.80. 0-2 2- Sth Korea - INCHEON 74.50% - 1.61. 3-3 3- China - SHIIJAZHUANG 72.50% - 1.66. 3-3 BTTS NO - Sth Korea - ULSAN HYUNDAI 37.50% - 2.15. 0-2 Running late due to football etc ...will update totals tomorrow .. Thurs - All Iceland - SELFOSS 69% 1.50 4-1 KOPAVOGUR 64% 1.50 0-3 OLAFSVIK 60.50% 1.57 2-1 No BTTS NO selection Edited July 14, 2018 by jtw1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real55555 Posted July 12, 2018 Share Posted July 12, 2018 Keep it up, following with interest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted July 12, 2018 Author Share Posted July 12, 2018 1- Fixed stake win on the top rated match rated over 70%+ - -7.30pts pts 2- a rolling double on the top match provided both are rated 70% + over 2 days. - +19.50pts 3- Fixed stake double on the top 2 rated that day - +47.68pts 4- Fixed stake Treble on the top 3 rated that day - +45.16pts Friday - Iceland - THROTTUR 53% 1.62 2- BRASIL DE PELOTAS 52% 2.20 3- BOHEMIANS 48.50% 1.95 I am going to put into place another trial with the correct scores of 1-0 , 2-0 , 3-0 and 4-0. The selection will be the Favourite in the bottom match in thestatsdontlie BTTS table provided the chance of BTTS is UNDER 40 % 4pts on 1-0 3pts on 2-0 3pts on 3-0 4pts on 4-0 Sat - BANDARI 1-0 would have returned +12pts profit Sun - VITEBSK 1-0 would have returned +8pts profit Mon - SJK 2-1 10pt loss Tues - No bet Wed - ULSAN HYUNDAI 0-2 would have returned +28pts profit Thurs - No bet Fri - Belarus - SLUTSK 26% Odds 5.50 , 7.00 , 13.00 and 34.0 LEE-GRAYS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted July 13, 2018 Share Posted July 13, 2018 Good luck, JTW - I remember somebody once saying "keep systems simple" Your new trial does seem to be a bit contradictory - the main theme of your thread is BTTS - and yet you are betting on scores that are not BTTS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted July 14, 2018 Author Share Posted July 14, 2018 (edited) See new thread mate ....it was going to get messy keeping it all on this one . 1- THROTTUR 53% 1.62 4-1 2- BRASIL DE PELOTAS 52% 2.20 1-1 3- BOHEMIANS 48.50% 1.95 0-3 Bohemians down to 10 men after 50mins. 1- Fixed stake win on the top rated match rated over 70%+ - -1.10pts 2- a rolling double on the top match provided both are rated 70% + over 2 days. - +19.50pts 3- Fixed stake double on the top 2 rated that day - +53.32pts 4- Fixed stake Treble on the top 3 rated that day - +15.16pts Sat - None over the 70% mark but here are todays top 3 - Iceland - LEIKNIR 67.50% 1.50 0-1 Finland - HAKA 65% 1.57 3-1 Brazil - GOIAS 65% 2.00 1-1 Edited July 14, 2018 by jtw1 Up to date inc sat results Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.