Non-League Predictions > March 24th

[Darran]

So close to landing a massive price treble in midweek with Maidstone drawing in the end against Macclesfield although a 2nd injury time winner in two days was always going to be a tough ask. Results really are all over the place in the National League at the moment and it certainly pays to pick and choose what games to get involved with and even then not get too heavily involved unless there is very good reason for doing so. I do have one bet in the division this weekend, but the main ones yet again come from lower down the pyramid. 

Ebbsfleet v Maidenhead

I just get the sense that Maidenhead are beginning to coast a little bit as we reach the tail end of the season. They don't really have anything to play for now as they can't reach the play-offs and they are a big price to end up in the bottom 4. A 1-1 draw against Boreham Wood was a fair result, but they were poor last Saturday when losing to Barrow as they were the Saturday before when losing 7-1 at Gatsehead. Indeed in their last 10 away games they have only beaten Hartlepool and Guiseley which doesn't say an awful lot. Ebbsfleet haven't played for two weeks so certainly no excuse about them having tired legs and they won 4 on the bounce prior to a 1-1 draw against Leyton Orient. They do have the odd blip at home and defeat to Chester and a 3-0 loss to Boreham Wood weren't great, but otherwise they have been hard to beat. They still have a chance of the play-offs so have plenty to play for unlike their opposition. I think the home side should be a shade of odds on here so 13/10 with Marathon makes plenty of appeal. 

FCUM v Bradford Park Avenue

The home side look a massive price here. I have written a few times about FCUM's great home form and their last 10 home games record reads won 7 drawn 2 and lost 1, That is impressive especially for a team who are in a relegation battle. It is their away form that has been the big problem, but their home should see them safe. They have played 2 games more than their opponents here, but they are actually only 4 points below them in the table which shows how congested it is. Bradford haven't won in 5 now and that includes a defeat to bottom side North Ferriby. They have won just once in their last 10 games. You get the sense after over achieving for most of the season that they are getting close to where they should be in the table. I think the home side should be favourites so the fact they can be backed at 85/40 with Marathon makes them a good bet.

Southport v Alfreton

Southport aren't quite odds against this week as the bookies are slowly catching up with their form. Another 3-0 win against AFC Telford last Tuesday means they have now scored 3 goals in their last 5 games and have conceded just once as well. That is impressive form and I think they can continue that run against a struggling Alfreton side who were pretty poor when losing to AFC Telford on Tuesday night. With Southport having had a near two week break that should mean they are fresher than Alfreton as well. Regular readers will know I don't often tip up odds on shots but at Marathon's 17/20 I think they offer plenty of value still. Whilst I was writing the previews it was announced that Ross Hannah is joining Southport on loan until the end of the season and that is a plus for me.

Hemel Hempstead v Gloucester City

I am going to back my own side on Saturday and it is a game I am going to as well. Hemel have threatened to play a part in the title race all season, but that has realistically gone now and they have to concentrate on finishing in the play-off places. That could be easier said than done because they have only won one of their last 6 games and they have blown leading positions against Chelmsford and Dartford. Now Chelsmford are 6th and Dartford 2nd so a Gloucester side in 12th place should be an easier test. But Gloucester are the form side in the division right now. They have only lost once in their last 9 and that came against top side Havant when they only had 10 men and even then they were unlucky to lose. Given issues off the field and the fact it looked like we were going to be fighting for relegation at the turn of the year it is quite staggering that we even have half an eye on the play-offs. Granted Hemel don't lose at home all that often, but they have lost to Poole and Hungerford in their last 5 home games so they have been fair from bomb proof of late. Gloucester are nearly 3/1 with Marathon which looks big to me as I think we should be around the 2/1 mark.

Lowestoft v Burgess Hill

Backing a side who have only picked up 1 point in their last 9 games is hardly something you would expect me to do and usually it would be a crazy thing to do, but I have to take Lowestoft on again. Burgess Hill are bottom and a bit detached although they do have games in hand and this really is a must win if they want to survive. These are clearly two bad teams, but the bookies still haven't caught up with the problems at Lowestoft and at 16/5 with BetVictor the away side have to be worth a punt as they shouldn't be that price.

Ebbsfleet 1.5pts @ 13/10 with Marathon

FCUM 2pts @ 85/40 with Marathon

Southport 4pts @ 17/20 with Marathon

Gloucester 1pt @ 72/25 with Marathon

Burgess Hill 1pt @ 16/5 with BetVictor

[dawwe92]

Great preview, but who can actually bet with Marathon? Their limits are a joke..

[Darran]

Surprised you say that dawwe92 as I think I have had one bet limited with them and as you can probably tell I bet with them a lot and have banked a fair few quid the last couple of seasons with them. I only put up bookies who most should be able to get some sort of bet with which is way I put them up because I don't have an issue with them. What I will say is their max bet does increase the closer you get to kick off.

[Seedy]

Agree about Marathon, also the L3 stuff in general, had to take way under the odds on Burgess Hill, with a certain Irish firm, who laid me 12 quid and then trimmed the price. Conf North & South not too bad, spread across a number of books. Definitely getting harder to get the money on. Keep up the good work, Darran.

[Sir Puntalot]

1 minute ago, Seedy said:

Agree about Marathon, also the L3 stuff in general, had to take way under the odds on Burgess Hill, with a certain Irish firm, who laid me 12 quid and then trimmed the price. Conf North & South not too bad, spread across a number of books. Definitely getting harder to get the money on. Keep up the good work, Darran.

 to PL @Seedy   

[Seedy]

15 minutes ago, Sir Puntalot said:

 to PL @Seedy   

Thanks - was here before but couldn't remember my userid lol

[Sir Puntalot]

4 minutes ago, Seedy said:

Thanks - was here before but couldn't remember my userid lol

If you email us at [email protected] with your email address or any info, I can try and find it and merge them.  

[Seedy]

2 minutes ago, Sir Puntalot said:

If you email us at [email protected] with your email address or any info, I can try and find it and merge them.  

No worries - this ones ok - I've written it down now!

[Darran]

36 minutes ago, Seedy said:

Agree about Marathon, also the L3 stuff in general, had to take way under the odds on Burgess Hill, with a certain Irish firm, who laid me 12 quid and then trimmed the price. Conf North & South not too bad, spread across a number of books. Definitely getting harder to get the money on. Keep up the good work, Darran.

There has been a bit of a plunge on Burgess Hill and I can't get on with BetVictor so had to take under what I put anyway. Some bookies have stopped betting on the game and some haven't bothered at all. Must admit I wouldn't want to be chasing the price much lower than it is at the moment.

I agree it does get harder the lower down the pyramid you go although I guess it stands to reason that you will get more on a National League game than a Evo-Stik one.

[LondonHibs]

I managed to get on Burgess Hill at 16/5 with Chandler and I've also backed them in the HT/FT market - if it was any other team in the league then it would be a mortgage job...but it's Burgess Hill. 

Having only missed one away fixture this season (ironically their 0-5 win at Burgess Hill) the loss of 4 of their key players recently really has been a huge body blow, as they don't look like scoring a goal from open play.

 

[Neubs]

@Darran What do you think about the Toquay-Guiseley Match? Think Guiseley are little bit overpriced and H2H looks great here for the Away Team. Think odds should be lower on the Away Win or what do you think?

[Darran]

I couldn't back Guiseley to win any match at the moment. They are pretty much certain to go down and it is a must win for Torquay who are giving themselves half a chance of getting out of the relegation zone. At the same time I wouldn't want to take the price on Torquay, but its priced up about right for me.

[Neubs]

THX @Darran

I´ve backing Halifax against Solihull. Halifax are in good Form and didn´t play in a Midweek Game this Week - so think they are Fresher then Solihull who played the 2nd Week with 3 Games per Week. Can be difficult for them and also Halifax with a Win they can make a Huge Climb to stay in League and think with a win against Relegation Opponent Solihull they will be Safe for this Season.

Halifax @ 2.55 4/10 bet365

Edited March 23, 2018 by Neubs

[Bedlam]

Billericay are victims of their own success, the fixtures are piling up, partly due to their cup runs, but also due to the recent weather & the state of their pitch. Today's match at Hendon is their 3rd this week. Following their Essex senior cup success on Tuesday, I attended their 2-1 league defeat at Tonbridge on Thursday night. The win didn't flatter Tonbridge, after Billericay's deflected opener in the first half, they barely created another clear-cut chance in the whole match.

Billericay  have now lost 5 of their last 6 matches, all of the other teams in the division are well up for putting one over on 'Ricay' owner Glen Tamplin, and now they face 3 matches a week for the rest of the season (cup finals for their opponents). Today's opponents, Hendon are in decent form, with only one defeat in their last 6, So the 3.5 on offer with betvictor about the home win is where my wager is going.

[sammydubs]

How much turmoil are they in? Monday sees them travel to Wingate and then later in week Harrow visit.

30/1 for the 2 loss double - tempting?? 

[Bedlam]

2 hours ago, sammydubs said:

How much turmoil are they in? Monday sees them travel to Wingate and then later in week Harrow visit.

30/1 for the 2 loss double - tempting?? 

I would say get on now before the odds drop Sammy. There are strong rumours that fisticuffs occurred between management & players before yesterday's defeat!

From twitter last night:

@ we-are-the-dons

I am sure that BTFC & Tamplin will make a statement soon,but all I have been told is....Tamplin arrived with bruising to the face, 2 BTFC players were seen leaving before kick-off & Tamplin left himself with 20 mins to go... the circus show continues!

[Sir Puntalot]

On 3/24/2018 at 12:34 PM, Bedlam said:

Billericay are victims of their own success, the fixtures are piling up, partly due to their cup runs, but also due to the recent weather & the state of their pitch. Today's match at Hendon is their 3rd this week. Following their Essex senior cup success on Tuesday, I attended their 2-1 league defeat at Tonbridge on Thursday night. The win didn't flatter Tonbridge, after Billericay's deflected opener in the first half, they barely created another clear-cut chance in the whole match.

Billericay  have now lost 5 of their last 6 matches, all of the other teams in the division are well up for putting one over on 'Ricay' owner Glen Tamplin, and now they face 3 matches a week for the rest of the season (cup finals for their opponents). Today's opponents, Hendon are in decent form, with only one defeat in their last 6, So the 3.5 on offer with betvictor about the home win is where my wager is going.

Hendon 4 Billericay 1 - Nicely done.  

[Darran]

Yeah well done on Bedlam for putting Billericay up. I am kicking myself really as I should have been opposing them before now, but after they started losing there was always that sense that as soon as I opposed them they would suddenly go and win 5-0! Anyone who got on at the right time would have made a fortune by now.

As for Tamplin he apparently was always going to leave early as he had a flight to catch. Probably a load of crap and he clearly doesn't take being a manger all that seriously as it isn't the first time he has gone abroad this season missing games. They are obviously having a busy time with so many games, but I also get the feeling the players aren't playing for him anymore and who can blame them.

Dulwich and to a lesser extant Folkstone are now in with a real chance of pipping them to the title if Billericay's poor run continues and given they have 13 league games and a cup final in the space of a month.

 

Mon 26th Mar	A	Wingate & Finchley	Bostik Premier	7.45pm
Wed 28th Mar	H	Harrow Borough	Bostik Premier	7.45pm
Sat 31st Mar	A	Leatherhead	Bostik Premier	3pm
Mon 2nd Apr	H	Tonbridge Angels	Bostik Premier	3pm
Thu 5th Apr	A	Brightlingsea Regent	Bostik Premier	7.45pm
Sat 7th Apr	A	Enfield Town	Bostik Premier	3pm
Mon 9th Apr	H	Staines Town	Bostik Premier	7.45pm
Wed 11th Apr	H	Metropolitan Police	Velocity Trophy F	7.45pm
Sat 14th Apr	H	Wingate & Finchley	Bostik Premier	3pm
Tue 17th Apr	A	Dorking Wanderers	Bostik Premier	7.45pm
Thu 19th Apr	H	Needham Market	Bostik Premier	7.45pm
Sat 21st Apr	A	Margate	Bostik Premier	3pm
Tue 24th Apr	H	Harlow Town	Bostik Premier	7.45pm
Sat 28th Apr	H	Folkestone Invicta	Bostik Premier	3pm

[sammydubs]

2 hours ago, Darran said:

Yeah well done on Bedlam for putting Billericay up. I am kicking myself really as I should have been opposing them before now, but after they started losing there was always that sense that as soon as I opposed them they would suddenly go and win 5-0! Anyone who got on at the right time would have made a fortune by now.

As for Tamplin he apparently was always going to leave early as he had a flight to catch. Probably a load of crap and he clearly doesn't take being a manger all that seriously as it isn't the first time he has gone abroad this season missing games. They are obviously having a busy time with so many games, but I also get the feeling the players aren't playing for him anymore and who can blame them.

Dulwich and to a lesser extant Folkstone are now in with a real chance of pipping them to the title if Billericay's poor run continues and given they have 13 league games and a cup final in the space of a month.

 

Mon 26th Mar	A	Wingate & Finchley	Bostik Premier	7.45pm
Wed 28th Mar	H	Harrow Borough	Bostik Premier	7.45pm
Sat 31st Mar	A	Leatherhead	Bostik Premier	3pm
Mon 2nd Apr	H	Tonbridge Angels	Bostik Premier	3pm
Thu 5th Apr	A	Brightlingsea Regent	Bostik Premier	7.45pm
Sat 7th Apr	A	Enfield Town	Bostik Premier	3pm
Mon 9th Apr	H	Staines Town	Bostik Premier	7.45pm
Wed 11th Apr	H	Metropolitan Police	Velocity Trophy F	7.45pm
Sat 14th Apr	H	Wingate & Finchley	Bostik Premier	3pm
Tue 17th Apr	A	Dorking Wanderers	Bostik Premier	7.45pm
Thu 19th Apr	H	Needham Market	Bostik Premier	7.45pm
Sat 21st Apr	A	Margate	Bostik Premier	3pm
Tue 24th Apr	H	Harlow Town	Bostik Premier	7.45pm
Sat 28th Apr	H	Folkestone Invicta	Bostik Premier	3pm

Unbelievable fixture congestion! 

What are we thinking about how they perform tonight?

 

 

 

[Darran]

Have decided to back against them and preview is on the new thread.

[Neubs]

On 23.3.2018 at 11:10 PM, Neubs said:

THX @Darran

I´ve backing Halifax against Solihull. Halifax are in good Form and didn´t play in a Midweek Game this Week - so think they are Fresher then Solihull who played the 2nd Week with 3 Games per Week. Can be difficult for them and also Halifax with a Win they can make a Huge Climb to stay in League and think with a win against Relegation Opponent Solihull they will be Safe for this Season.

Halifax @ 2.55 4/10 >bet365

FT 0:0