Price Drift

[Jimmy2shoes]

RIGHT about time some of these price drifts were put forward and questions asked, YIPP sure sure it's the BOOKMAKERS that price horses up not the yard but So Many times prices are short in the evening before race day, then hours and minutes before said race the price drifts like a BARGE!

Surely this is never a coincidence and when a horse in question does drift ''bookmakers shoving out with confidence'' it's on information received,  YES a member or two will come back with.......What about when it drifts and wins, fair point i say BUT for every drift and WIN - you will find 20 that flop exactly as the market hinted it would.

Talking out my pocket on this one but i backed Movewiththetimes today in the 12:45 at Cheltenham, last night he was mostly 10/11 - 4/5

Wasn't a penny for him and he was sent off 11/8 - He ran exactly to his drifting price suggested.

To quote Gambler Harry Findlay..............................When a fancied horse drifts in price it's like the bookmakers have found out the horse has stood on glass.

I'll be having my moan and grown on this thread over such blatant ''Horse not even at the start BUT you won't be winning'' Coincidental drifts.

And that wasn't Barry Geraghty's best ride, he's looking past it these days, YEH i said it, PAST IT,  a blind man could see he was too far back 70% of the race.

[richard-westwood]

Yeah I agree with you on this one Jimmy .....I know sometimes they react to a horse that's been well backed by pushing another out but toomany times I've backed a horse the night before and then at 10am the price starts drifting .....at 1pm ids still drifting from 4 to 13/2 and the race isn't even until 5pm!!......and yes it happens time and time again ....only explanation is they know something we don't ....simple as that cos you don't push a good horse out unless you know its not gonna perform .......I'm with you onnthat one 

[Jimmy2shoes]

Well done to Barry for winning on MTOY 

JP's money must of been down as wasn't messing about on the horses rear end up that hill, hadn't won a race since ''Feb 2014'' 

[Valiant Thor]

4 hours ago, Jimmy2shoes said:

Well done to Barry for winning on MTOY 

JP's money must of been down as wasn't messing about on the horses rear end up that hill, hadn't won a race since ''Feb 2014'' 

Im not sure if he still is but JP used to be one of the biggest shareholders in ladbrokes,

it used to be said that if the green and gold were lowest price with Ladcrooks early doors like MTOY was today (4's while most books were 9/2 & 5's) you knew the horse was "up for it" so to speak.

I did have a small tickle on MTOY myself not because of that , but I watched an Interview with Henderson and he told the interviewer "NOT" to rule out MTOY with a wry smile on his face as if to say if only you knew

Edited December 16, 2017 by Valiant Thor

[Jimmy2shoes]

10 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said:

Im not sure if he still is but JP used to be one of the biggest shareholders in ladbrokes,

it used to be said that if the green and gold were lowest price with Ladcrooks early doors like MTOY was today (4's while most books were 9/2 & 5's) you knew the horse was "up for it" so to speak.

I did have a small tickle on MTOY myself not because of that , but I watched an Interview with Henderson and he told the interviewer "NOT" to rule out MTOY with a wry smile on his face as if to say if only you knew

I wouldn't knock JP but most of us know what he is 

BG put a lot more Passion into his ride on MTOY than he did on Movewiththetimes 

Watch both races and tell me I'm wrong, it's like his life was on the line with MTOY 

Edited December 16, 2017 by Jimmy2shoes

[Valiant Thor]

The reason books know why horses drift is because of thing like this

Quote

The British Horseracing Authority (BHA) yesterday released a remarkable transcript of a telephone call between trainer David Evans and Ladbrokes that left all parties with questions to answer.

The details emerged after the outcome of a case which resulted in Evans being fined £3,140 after being deemed “guilty of conduct prejudicial to horseracing”.

Evans rang Ladbrokes asking for “a good bet” on his horse, Black Dave, at Wolverhampton in January, 2015. His request for a £6,000 bet was accepted and he was given odds of 4-1, despite the fact that Ladbrokes were offering only 7-2 to the general public.

Evans also informed Ladcrooks That his other horse (the Fav in the race Tango Sky) would be withdrawn before the off.

Quote

Timeline of events on the raceday

8.35am Black Dave priced at 4-1 with Ladbrokes
8.38am Black Dave is shortened to 7-2
8.43am David Evans places a £6,000 bet on Black Dave with Ladbrokes at improved odds of 4-1 and informs the firm Tango Sky will be a non-runner
8.46am Black Dave is shortened to 100-30
8.47am Tango Sky is shortened to 3-1 (from 7-2), increasing the Rule 4 to 25p in a £1
9.02am Black Dave shortens to 11-4 following bets from owners at the yard
9.04am Black Dave shortens to 5-2
9.39am Tango Sky is declared a non-runner and a new market is subsequently formed

Ladcrooks restrict your average Joe punter by removing BOG and restricting accounts yet allow the above to happen .

The BHA hands out menial fines as it needs the bookies money, Therefore allowing the books to glean every penny it can from losing punters.

Edited December 16, 2017 by Valiant Thor
spelling

[BillyHills]

I wondered what Evans had been up to, Gaye Kelleway mentioned on the TV the other day that she was allowed to buy one of his horses as he thought he was going to be suspended and unable to train for a while.

Nothing surprises anymore, especially on the AW where they run so often and the form is up and down, much more easily hidden amongst the garbage of everyday racing.

[Valiant Thor]

1 hour ago, BillyHills said:

I wondered what Evans had been up to, Gaye Kelleway mentioned on the TV the other day that she was allowed to buy one of his horses as he thought he was going to be suspended and unable to train for a while.

Gaye Kellaway is just as bad she was involved in the bookmakers "free bets for trainers" scandle unearthed  by Panorama years ago (90's).So nothing has been done by the BHA since then ,just a few fines and swept back under the carpet.

All this b*sht about traders ect making a book is crap for the average race ,the books have a good idea who's going to win by letting trainers and connections lump on early doors then form the market accordingly,no different to insider trading on the stock market and should be dealt with with a lifetime ban and no changing the licence to wife/kids etc (Karl Burke springs to mind) IMO

15 yrs ago and still going on today, under the BHA's nose

Edited December 17, 2017 by Valiant Thor
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[BillyHills]

9 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said:

no changing the licence to wife/kids etc (Karl Burke springs to mind) IMO

 

Paul Blockley - Jo Hughes is another!

[arsenalfh]

On 12/16/2017 at 2:36 PM, Jimmy2shoes said:

RIGHT about time some of these price drifts were put forward and questions asked, YIPP sure sure it's the BOOKMAKERS that price horses up not the yard but So Many times prices are short in the evening before race day, then hours and minutes before said race the price drifts like a BARGE!

Surely this is never a coincidence and when a horse in question does drift ''bookmakers shoving out with confidence'' it's on information received,  YES a member or two will come back with.......What about when it drifts and wins, fair point i say BUT for every drift and WIN - you will find 20 that flop exactly as the market hinted it would.

Talking out my pocket on this one but i backed Movewiththetimes today in the 12:45 at Cheltenham, last night he was mostly 10/11 - 4/5

Wasn't a penny for him and he was sent off 11/8 - He ran exactly to his drifting price suggested.

To quote Gambler Harry Findlay..............................When a fancied horse drifts in price it's like the bookmakers have found out the horse has stood on glass.

I'll be having my moan and grown on this thread over such blatant ''Horse not even at the start BUT you won't be winning'' Coincidental drifts.

And that wasn't Barry Geraghty's best ride, he's looking past it these days, YEH i said it, PAST IT,  a blind man could see he was too far back 70% of the race.

Overnight prices are just completely inaccurate which is why bookmakers take no money on them. It's very hard to price up a race and as a result opening prices usually are not reflective of a horses chance. As more money is placed the market gets more efficient and minutes before the off the prices are far more reflective of a horse's chance of winning.

11/8 is equivalent to a 42% chance of winning which is hardly a certainty. Movewiththetimes wouldn't have even been expected to win half the time. I'm not saying racing is completely straight but overnight prices are always subject to a lot of movement the next day as the money comes down because it is very difficult to price up a race.