harry_rag Posted December 9, 2017 Author Share Posted December 9, 2017 Munster v Leicester: Buy Leicester hotshots for 2 points at 17 with SPIN (25 points per May, Smith, Thompstone and Veainu try) A shade short of 21 based on my rough calculation and 23 to buy elsewhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 10, 2017 Author Share Posted December 10, 2017 Last 2 bets lost, updated figures as follows. 332.5 points risked and 174 returned, -158.5 points with an ROI of -47.67%. 4 winners from 17 bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Stick at it Harry. The sample is way too small to draw any conclusions - you could have an ROI of +47.67% and it wouldn't really mean anything. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 11, 2017 Author Share Posted December 11, 2017 Just done a quick check. The bets in here represent around 15% of my spread bets since I started the thread. I'm glad to say that the overall results aren't as bad those in here! I guess it's partly bad decision making in terms of the bets I've decided to post but largely just luck in terms of such a small sample size. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 Let's get at it again in here! Buy hotshots in Arsenal v Chelsea for 1 point at 35 with SPIN (Lacazette, Sanchez, Morata and Hazard). 40 to buy elsewhere, worth at least 38.5 by my assessment. Track record in here is poor but, overall, I tend to do ok with Hotshots bets where the perceived edge is 10% or more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 4, 2018 Author Share Posted January 4, 2018 10 point loss last night, just the Hazard goal but perhaps unlucky given the chances apparently squandered or hitting the woodwork, 367.5 points risked and 199 returned, -168.5 points with an ROI of -45.85%. 4 winners from 18 bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 5, 2018 Author Share Posted January 5, 2018 Gone for a 1 point buy of Brew try minutes at 13 with SX, for Bath at Worcester, 5 points higher elsewhere which is in keeping with the fixed odds view (2/1 best). Worth a go at the price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 6, 2018 Author Share Posted January 6, 2018 Another one bites the dust! For today, I've bought Brive hotshots at home to Toulon. 1 point at 15 with SX, 25 points per Megdoud, Mignardi, Lapeyre and Laranjeira try. No way I can get the number to be that low, much closer to 20 for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 7, 2018 Author Share Posted January 7, 2018 13 point loss on Brew but 10 point profit from the Brive hotshots. 395.5 points risked and 224 returned, -171.5 points with an ROI of -43.36%. 5 winners from 20 bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 11, 2018 Author Share Posted January 11, 2018 Sevilla v Cadiz, buy Banega goal minutes for 1 point at 12 with SX. Not the most prolific goal scorer but 5 points higher elsewhere and looks too low against today's opponents. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 No joy with Banega, bought hotshots for 1 point at 35 in the Sheffield derby with SPIN (Clarke, Donaldson, Rhodes and Joao). Can make a case for the point being around 3 points light and that's not a bad quartet to have on side, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 13, 2018 Author Share Posted January 13, 2018 Another nilling! Beginning to defy probability now! 442.5 points risked and 224 returned, -218.5 points with an ROI of -49.38%. 5 winners from 22 bets. I think I might have said I'd stop this if the losses hit 200 points but where's the fun in that! As these are bets I'm having anyway let's press on to 100 to see if, by that time, the results I post in here start to more accurately reflect my overall returns. One for tonight's rugby to follow shortly. Torque 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 13, 2018 Author Share Posted January 13, 2018 A bit of a quandary tonight as there are 2 potential bets I could post. I'll go for the 1 point buy of Ospreys hotshots v Saracens at 20 with SPIN (D Evans, Watkin, Beck, Hassler). Looks over 3 points short to me which makes for a decent edge, or that's the theory at least! The other play would have been to sell Bordeaux hotshots against Dragons at 61 with SPIN (Jalibert, Connor, Fuatai, Cros), The price is 54-58 elsewhere and even that looks a bit too high to me. I get a "true" price of 47 and struggle to make it any higher than 54 however I crunch the numbers. In terms of perceived edge I should probably have favoured the sell as the bet to post as today's selection but I've wimped out and gone for the bet with the known downside! (For clarity, I'm on both bets, just had a dilemma over which one to post.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 14, 2018 Author Share Posted January 14, 2018 Well, at least I opted for the bet that lost the least! 5 tries in the other game, all scored by the hotshots! None for Ospreys so a 20 point loss for the thread. 462.5 points risked and 224 returned, -238.5 points with an ROI of -51.57%. 5 winners from 23 bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 14, 2018 Author Share Posted January 14, 2018 Bought Leicester hotshots v Castres, 1 point at 14 with SPIN (Thompstone, Smith, Brady, Worth) 8 points higher elsewhere, I suspect the truth lies somewhere in the middle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 17, 2018 Author Share Posted January 17, 2018 No points for Leicester, let alone tries for their hotshots! 476.5 points risked and 224 returned, -252.5 points with an ROI of -52.99%. 5 winners from 24 bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 19, 2018 Author Share Posted January 19, 2018 Buy Schurrle goal minutes for 1 point at 14 with SPIN in Hertha Berlin v Dortmund. 6 points higher elsewhere, they don't seem to have reacted to the confirmed line ups. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 23, 2018 Author Share Posted January 23, 2018 Partick v Celtic: Buy Forrest goal minutes for 1 point at 16 with SPIN "Spread free" as SX go 16-19, much better than the best available fixed odds prices and recent stats fairly good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 24, 2018 Author Share Posted January 24, 2018 Another 30 points lost on the last 2 bets. 506.5 points risked and 224 returned, -282.5 points with an ROI of -55.77%. 5 winners from 26 bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 29, 2018 Author Share Posted January 29, 2018 Celta Vigo v Betis: Buy Leon's goal minutes for 1 point at 14 with SX. Much higher elsewhere, appeals at what I'd equate to around 3/1 anytime. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 29, 2018 Author Share Posted January 29, 2018 71st minute goal for Leon makes for a 57 point profit (and makes for a welcome change in the context of this thread)! 520.5 points risked and 295 returned, -225.5 points with an ROI of -43.32%. 6 winners from 27 bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 2, 2018 Author Share Posted February 2, 2018 France v Ireland: Buy France hotshots for 1 point at 15 with SX (Vakatawa, Lamerat, Thomas, Palis) 5 points higher elsewhere, the truth lies somewhere in the middle for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 3, 2018 Author Share Posted February 3, 2018 Thomas scores the only try of the game so a 10 point profit. 535.5 points risked and 320 returned, -215.5 points with an ROI of -40.24%. 7 winners from 27 bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 4, 2018 Author Share Posted February 4, 2018 Italy v England: Buy Parisse try minutes for 1 point at 7 with SX. Rationale posted in the 6 Nations thread. There may be a stronger spread bet to come today but, on balance, happy to put this one up in here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 No joy with that bet so a 7 point loss. 542.5 points risked and 320 returned, -222.5 points with an ROI of -41.01%. 7 winners from 28 bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 9, 2018 Author Share Posted February 9, 2018 Wigan v Hull (tomorrow morning), buy Wigan hotshots for 1 point at 51 with SPIN (S Tomkins, Davies, Gildart, Burgess). I make them worth 59 so worth a go, even if it is a relatively high price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 11, 2018 Author Share Posted February 11, 2018 That didn't go so well, nilling only avoided thanks to 8 points for a "non-runner". Unperturbed, I'm going in with another high buy, but one where I still think there could be a substantial edge (as much as 10 points). Buy Castleford hotshots (v Widnes) for 1 point at 67 with SPIN (Eden, Minikin, Webster, Gale) SX go 61-66 but have Shenton in for Eden. Given that Eden's try minutes are 54 to buy and Shenton's just 28, it's fair to say that the former is a more valuable inclusion. I make the SX price about right but the SPIN one generous to buyers. For further context, Eden is 4/7 bets in the anytime market while Shenton is 7/4 and their respective try hauls last season were 38 in 29 and 6 in 26. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 11, 2018 Author Share Posted February 11, 2018 31 minutes ago, harry_rag said: Buy Castleford hotshots (v Widnes) for 1 point at 67 with SPIN (Eden, Minikin, Webster, Gale) SX go 61-66 but have Shenton in for Eden. Given that Eden's try minutes are 54 to buy and Shenton's just 28, it's fair to say that the former is a more valuable inclusion. I make the SX price about right but the SPIN one generous to buyers. For further context, Eden is 4/7 bets in the anytime market while Shenton is 7/4 and their respective try hauls last season were 38 in 29 and 6 in 26. Bet closed out at 62 for a 5 point loss. Eden doesn't start and, as he's the main reason for liking the bet at the price, I'll close out before SPIN adjust the price. Hitchcox, who starts in his place, is a decent bet at 10/11 anytime and 4/1 2+ with Betfred. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 11, 2018 Author Share Posted February 11, 2018 43 points lost on the Wigan hotshots and a 5 point loss taken on the Castleford ones. It's rare for me to ever close out a bet in running, I'm not sure if I've ever closed one out for a loss before the event! It was the wise thing to do though as the make up would have been 33 for a 34 point loss. I managed a small profit on the game courtesy of the Hitchcox try, after deducting the 5 point loss and small losing bets on the brace and hat trick. 598.5 points risked and 328 returned, -270.5 points with an ROI of -45.2%. 7 winners from 30 bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 13, 2018 Author Share Posted February 13, 2018 Basel v Man C: Buy De Bruyne card minutes for 1 point at 6 with SX. Not the dirtiest player but sometimes a low risk bet catches your eye in a way that you'd much rather back it and lose than not back it and see it win. He's only been booked 5 times this season but 3 of them came in the Champions League and another was for Belgium in a World Cup qualifier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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