BillyHills Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 Flat season kicks off at Doncaster this weekend and the first big betting handicap is the Lincoln. Ran over the straight mile and as usual the Draw will be a big talking point whether it actually matters or not. Most will just say the pace is more important than the draw? Any thoughts. Previous Winners Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted March 28, 2017 Author Share Posted March 28, 2017 Lincoln Trends Last 10 years 10/10 Winners have been aged between 4 and 6 9/10 Winners won at Class 3 or higher 9/10 Winners had won between 3 and 6 times 8/10 Favourites have been beaten 8/10 Winners had won over at least 1 mile 7/10 Winners started at double figure odds 7/10 Winners drawn 8 or higher (at Doncaster) 6/10 Winners carried 9st or more (including last 3) 6/10 Winners rated 97 or more (last 3 over 100) 6/10 Winners not been out on AW 5/10 Winners had won 1 of last 2 races on turf EviL ZippY and robertob 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EviL ZippY Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 when do we get the runners confirmed?? if he goes, I really fancy a little tickle at Nimr myself Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted March 28, 2017 Author Share Posted March 28, 2017 4 days decs today (about 12) Final runners confirmed Thursday. EviL ZippY 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted March 28, 2017 Author Share Posted March 28, 2017 Latest Odds with Bet365 Others on request Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 (edited) I love the Lincoln .....anything can win smothered loads of value on offer ....same this year so may as well go for gold and try for the big win .....the two that caught my eye are instant attraction who's 3 length beating in the royal hunt cup is very good good form and the the ground was probably a bit too soft that day he would be better on good soft so if he gets that ground Saturday then the current 33/1 will look a joke.....the other that catches the eye is dolphin Vista who looked a progressive type last year ..has ample staying power and represents fahey who will be aiming one at this race and p hanagan taking the ride looks very interesting too ....33/1 is way overpriced Dolphin Vista 10pts win 33/1 bet365 Instant attraction 10pts 33/1 bet365 Edited March 28, 2017 by richard-westwood BillyHills 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted March 30, 2017 Author Share Posted March 30, 2017 Final Decs and Draw at 11 am this morning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted March 30, 2017 Author Share Posted March 30, 2017 Favourite Morando pulled out this morning! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted March 30, 2017 Author Share Posted March 30, 2017 Card Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted March 30, 2017 Author Share Posted March 30, 2017 Picking the Lincoln winner by the trends: 22 Runners to start with: Last 10 winners ages between 4 & 6: This gets rid of 7 runners Gabrial, Top Notch Tonto, Dream Walker, Emell, Heavens Guest, Gorge Cinq, Highland Colori 15 Left 9/10 Winners had won between 3 and 6 times and at least one in Class 3 or higher We lose three more Battle Of Marathon, Bravery, Lucy The Painter 12 Left 8/10 Winners won over a mile We lose 4 more Zhui Feng, Steel Train, Eddystone Rock, Withernsea 8 Left All 8 left rated higher than 97 and carry more than 9st 7/10 Winners drawn 8 or over. We lose 2 more Third Time Lucky (1), Oh This Is Us (2) 6 Left You're Fired, Yuften, Donncha, Instant Attraction, Master Carpenter and Dolphin Vista. 6/10 Winners not had prep race on AW We lose 2 more Yuften, You're Fired 4 Left 8/10 Winners had won a race worth at least £11,000 We lose 2 more Donncha, Instant Attraction Only 2 Left so will back both EW Master Carpenter 33/1 Bet365 Dolphin Vista 16/1 BetVictor DanV89 and richard-westwood 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just a different angle for anyone who's interested ...I rated The average win prize money each horse has won in last twelve months and compared it to the average overall to give a class rating for each horse Yuften 6.29 Your fired 2.20 Dream walker 1.75 Gabriel 1.65 Oh this is us 1.57 Well you can see why yuften is now fav for this race on paper hes way above these on class ratings ....doesnt mean hes gonna win but food for thought nonetheless ...will be interesting to see how he performs as a result BillyHills and DanV89 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted March 31, 2017 Author Share Posted March 31, 2017 My ratings Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arsenalfh Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Your 33/1 on Dolphin Vista looks fantastic @richard-westwood. I quite fancy him myself at the current prices with 14/1 available on Betfred and a generous 5 places. Dolphin Vista is still relatively lightly raced and has been gelded over the winter so is very much open to improvement. Fahey reports him working really well and the fact he's the choice of Paul Hanagan backs this up. Fahey boasts a fine record in the months of March and April with an A/E winners of 1.25 and a healthy strike rate of 17% so I wouldn't be worried about backing his first time up this season. richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 (edited) 1 hour ago, arsenalfh said: Your 33/1 on Dolphin Vista looks fantastic @richard-westwood. I quite fancy him myself at the current prices with 14/1 available on Betfred and a generous 5 places. Dolphin Vista is still relatively lightly raced and has been gelded over the winter so is very much open to improvement. Fahey reports him working really well and the fact he's the choice of Paul Hanagan backs this up. Fahey boasts a fine record in the months of March and April with an A/E winners of 1.25 and a healthy strike rate of 17% so I wouldn't be worried about backing his first time up this season. Its the lincoln and anything happens ...i think yuften will run a big race but im happy and just hope they run a big race now ..i agree i think fahey is targeting this with hanagan on board and the fact hes been consistently well backed all week is givin me hope ...cmon you beautys !!! I just love these big races ...nice to get stuck in Edited March 31, 2017 by richard-westwood Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Would not be a big surprise if Fahey & Hanagan won the Spring Mile and Lincoln! Bu i will go for a roughie e/w its the Hannon second string EMELL 33/1 1/5 6 places ran well in this last year lighter weight this time around will come on for recent run on flat interestng Jock booked Timmy Murphy he is no Graham Lee on the flat but he is very capable Jock imo. Emell looks overpriced to me and looks to have a really good place chance and who knows with a bit a luck ... arsenalfh and richard-westwood 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanV89 Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 Gone out on a bit of a whim and backed Lucy The Painter in Lincoln 40/1. Goes well fresh has finished 1st and 2nd off anything above a 5 month break and hasn't run since October. Won 3 on the bounce last year and was then running in listed and Group races and now drops to a Class 2. Was only beaten by 3 lengths by Persuasive in a Group race at Sandown and Persuasive then 2nd to Alice Springs in Group 1 at Irish Champs Weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertob Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 The two Fahey runners are the two most intriguing ones in my eyes: Third Time Lucky looks sure to relish this test. He performed well in these type of big-field handicaps in the past and won't mind whatever juice is left in the ground. He's also race fit and in form, as recent results proved - though the penalty he carries is annoying, the 7lb claimer on board looks quite useful. I like his calm riding style which should be of benefit here in this race where the ability to travel strongly is key imo. The younger and less exposed Dolphin Vista has Hanagan in the saddle and runs of near bottom weight. There might still be bit improvement in this son of Zoffany and I'm sure he's ready to run a big race after the seasonal break. He stays further and has a career highest mark to overcome but this is only his ninth handicap start, now as a four year old, if he can return to the form of his penultimate run when a winner over 10f at Beverly, he's a big chance imo, most likely receiving a positive ride where he can make his stamina count. 5pts win - Third Time Lucky @ 16/1 Unibet 5pts win - Dolphin Vista @ 14/1 Bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted April 1, 2017 Author Share Posted April 1, 2017 Bravery - Ex Aidan O'Brien, first run for O'Meara since being beaten 45 lengths last time out. Welcome back to the flat turf season Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 42 minutes ago, BillyHills said: Bravery - Ex Aidan O'Brien, first run for O'Meara since being beaten 45 lengths last time out. Welcome back to the flat turf season When does the Jumps start back ? BillyHills 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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