Pointers for newbie punters

[BillyHills]

I was reading the Sporting Life today and Nick Luck hosted a Q&A and one question in particular made me think about the forum and its members.

It was from a guy who had just got into Horse Racing and betting and was asking for any useful advice.

I know we could all tell him to keep his money in his pocket, the game is a fiddle and you cant possibly win etc  etc.... but it might be worth opening up the forum for any questions about this subject.

Hopefully we will see some members taking part.

[BillyHills]

I'll start by posting the question from the Life

 

Matty: Hi Nick as a new punter getting in racing what do you think new people to the sport should look for when picking horses? Thanks.

 

Nick: First, you have to consider all of the obvious variables that could alter the horse's performance - ground, jockey, distance etc. And then you have to identify whether a horse belongs against better opposition and has not reached his peak. In essence, it is a question of identifying where a horse is in terms of its improvement curve, combined with knowing what the circumstances are under which it will produce its optimum performance.

Any thoughts?

[richard-westwood]

One of the things that vastly underrated is how the horse looks on the day ....after my last few visits to the track I've realised how much this has an effect the race ...my recent visit to Wolverhampton there was a short priced favourite and I was watching them walk around in the ring and I saw the favourite ...coat dull ...head down half asleep ...my friend said who's that and I said the favourite ?....next horse that walked past was probably one hand taller ....lovely shiny coat ...flicking his head up and down and occasionally side stepping looking all fired up ......horse hadn't run for 300 days so we looked at the betting ..9/1 ....straight inside tenner ew on the nose and it won by 4 lengths !!!!....and the favourite finished 7th......it's difficult to see on telly but if you can get to the track then I'd say do it ...it's well worth the effort 

Edited December 10, 2016 by richard-westwood

[Trotter]

I think the most important first thing is to get to grips with the class structure of the sport

I mean the way that races are classified and the levels of ability required for each grade and type of race

As a newbie it's all too easy to fall into the trap of seeing that a horse has won it's last 3 runs without knowing the value of those wins

Try to get to grips with how the handicap system works.......how horses move up and down the ratings and consequently have to run in better races or can get into worse races.

Try to understand the Pattern, Listed races and conditions events.......look at the race conditions to understand the penalty system

The first question that you should be asking is ........is the horse running in a race that it can win ?

Of course it's easy to start posting caveats to the general principles but it's useful to keep things simple !

 

 

 

 

[arsenalfh]

Price is everything. You can identify horses that are going to improve, well handicapped, have their ground and so on but if you don't understand the concept of value you'll never win long term. If you're backing an evens shot ask the question if you think this horse has a greater chance of winning than 50%. If you believe he does go for it, if not stay away. You have to ask this question for every horse you back.

[Snoopdog]

No mention has been made of systems. Being a technical / mathematical sort of person, this is how I started out, ie read up on some systems, then develop your own. Good advice might include the "kind" of races that are good/bad to get involved in (although our preferences may differ). Accept whether you want to back a high % of winners (for the buzz) which long term is usually inferior to backing longer price selections, but the more popular selections don't have the long losing runs. As you get more experienced, combine the blind system picks with fundamental knowledge. Learn how to understand the paper's "all in a line form guide". Staking plans - for most people, start with level stakes, then mabe vary "a bit" as you get more experienced. Develop a series of websites that suit your style for guidance. It's all about personal style and comfort zone.

[Jimmy2shoes]

A good long lasting recommended burns cream 

[BillyHills]

52 minutes ago, Jimmy2shoes said:

A good long lasting recommended burns cream 

You couldn't resist it could you!

(One thing you have to be is a good loser)

[BillyHills]

On a more serious note and going back to systems.

I have always liked systems and ratings and at the moment calculate my own ratings.

I have tried a few systems down the years and always thought it was difficult to find a consistent method that fitted into a suitable staking plan.

Personally i have only stuck to the more simple systems, with software and data crunchers these days you can get really deep into system building and if i had more time i'm sure i would play about with a few variables.

I think many people choose systems because it takes the emotion out of selecting bets, the system points to a horse and you back it.

I think your confidence can take a knock when you are on a bad run normally and you start to waver in your way of picking horses. Often someone in a bad run will either back favourites just so they can get out of a losing run or alternatively back long shots to try and recoup the losses in one go. With systems the method never changes so your betting is more level headed.

Neither of the first two scenarios are recommended obviously but the average punter lacks discipline and this is the start of the slippery slope.

I still think the main priority in betting is to find a good staking plan and stick to your specialist subject. Whether that be AW Racing, Novice Hurdles or something else. It's almost impossible to bet in every type of race and make a profit, there is just too much racing and you need to narrow it down to a manageable level.

[Tedthewolf]

On 10/12/2016, 10:48:06, richard-westwood said:

One of the things that vastly underrated is how the horse looks on the day ....after my last few visits to the track I've realised how much this has an effect the race ...my recent visit to Wolverhampton there was a short priced favourite and I was watching them walk around in the ring and I saw the favourite ...coat dull ...head down half asleep ...my friend said who's that and I said the favourite ?....next horse that walked past was probably one hand taller ....lovely shiny coat ...flicking his head up and down and occasionally side stepping looking all fired up ......horse hadn't run for 300 days so we looked at the betting ..9/1 ....straight inside tenner ew on the nose and it won by 4 lengths !!!!....and the favourite finished 7th......it's difficult to see on telly but if you can get to the track then I'd say do it ...it's well worth the effort 

I think it is a bit of an art being able to glee information from watching horses in the paddock there is shrewd people who do it for sure  but im afraid i aint one it  only confuses me wish i had the skill its either not easy to do or  im a complete tool (probably the latter) they all look good to me!

[arsenalfh]

Every time I go racing I try to see if my picks are looking good in the paddock but every time I come to the conclusion that they're all looking great. Can't tell the difference between them. 

[richard-westwood]

The paddock thing is just something ive picked up going racing ...i started noticing little things and seeing how much it changed the outcome ....now when i go racing i take a pen and use a checklist 

coat/condition ...how does the horses coat look?....shiny or dull ? Have they made an effort ..plain or  stars brushed into to coat etc ..give esch horse a figure 1-10 snd note next to each horse

in races up to one mile ...muscle mass..especially in sprints ...if they have a big engine at the back its half the battle as opposed to hardly any ....if one horse ripped and they next bony note it down again 1-10

temperement ....hows the horse acting ....head down half asleep rate it 1-4....fired up occasionally bobbing head on his toes rated it high but beware if sweating up and playing up kicking not behaving etc then rate low as wasting too much energy etc

finally are connections there? If big group connections talking to jockey add bonus points ........tot up totals and yoill be amazed how easy it is sometimes ...really not hard at all and has huge effect on race 

plus its fun ...tek your pint out and get involved it costs wnough to go racing so enjoy each race get your moneys worth....all my friends do this now and theyve all said how surprised they are how winners just jump off page sometimes ....like the other day 9/1winner.  ..then in following race one horse took top rating because 7 connections there. Lost in photo at 13/2 ...but still 

Edited December 14, 2016 by richard-westwood

[Trotter]

I never go racing these days but watching on the telly at the paddock parade I like to pick out the horse that most looks like a greyhound...........