Grand National Tips

[BillyHills]

Runner by Runner guide

Full preview here

 

Prediction;

 

Prediction

1st Many Clouds Click Here To Bet @ 8/1

2nd Holywell Click Here To Bet @ 16/1

3rd The Last Samuri Click Here To Bet @12/1

4th Just A Par Click Here To Bet @ 50/1

 

 

[Valiant Thor]

1st  Last Samuri

2nd Many Clouds

3rd Morning Assembly

4th Druids Nephew

[beaker1]

5.15 Aintree – Crabbie´s Grand National Chase (Grade 3) (HANDICAP RACE)

Despite Many Clouds’ famous win last season, nine of the last ten winners of the Grand National have been aged between nine and 11, so this is certainly not a race in which younger horses have done well yet not a race for those past their prime either. The last time, previously to Many Clouds, that there was a winner younger than nine was 14 years ago when Bindaree landed the spoils for the Nigel Twiston-Davies team and before him you have to go back to another eight-year-old, Party Politics who won in 1992. Seven horses aged eight take part in the race this season, including Wonderful Charm, Gilgamboa, Unioniste, Ucello Conti and The Last Samuri, so while that age group hasn’t had a great record in the race, there’s certainly plenty of class in their ranks this year. Onenightinvienna and Vieux Lion Rouge will both be bidding to become the first seven-year-old to win the race since Bogskar triumphed in 1940.  Although Many Clouds managed to break the trend last year and the class of the eight-year-olds in the race does seem to rise every year, it’s probably safest to steer towards the nine to eleven-year-old age group when making your selection.

An equally strong trend is that a win over a distance of three miles or further is something that all of the last ten winners had on their CV. In fact this trend can be stretched back to 1970 and it is hardly surprising given the extreme stamina test the race provides. There are nine members of this year’s field who still have these major doubts surrounding their stamina including Ballycasey, Ballynagour, Gilgamboa and Buywise – given how far this run goes back, it seems wise to rule these horses out at this stage, especially with some cut in the ground forecast, making really getting the trip all the more important.

Given the perceived effort that horses have to give in the Grand National, it might be sensible to support a horse returning from a long lay-off. However, the statistics suggest that a run within the last 50 days is the optimum, accounting for nine of the last ten winners. The only exception during this period was the 2012 winner Neptune Collonges who managed to win following an absence of 56 days. Whilst you might still be thinking this makes little difference, consider that the last winner to defy the trend before Neptune Collonges was Aldaniti in 1981. This year there are eight of the field who will attempt to buck the trend including the likes of First Lieutenant, Soll, Sir Des Champs and Black Thunder. It seems that match practice goes a long way in the Grand National and it would therefore seem sensible to stick with those who have run in the last fifty days, putting them in peak shape for this unique test.

The Irish angle is one to take good notice of, especially considering 13 of the last 17 horses to win the race were bred in the country and Irish-trained horses have been successful in seven of the last 17 renewals. Although the Irish trainers haven’t had a successful contender since Gordon Elliot’s Silver Birch won in 2007, it does seem high time that one came along, so when you look at the very strong entry including the well-fancied contenders Goonyella, Morning Assembly, Boston Bob, Gallant Oscar and Ucello Conti, they could be the ones to regain the crown for Ireland.

Twelve of the last 19 winners of the Grand National has finished at least placed in another ‘national’ of some shape or form either in Ireland or in Britain, something Goonyella, Shutthefrontdoor, Vics Canvas and Rule The World all gain a boost from. Of course Many Clouds and Saint Are, last year’s 1-2 in this race also meet this criterion, but only one of the last 73 horses to have won or placed in this great race had managed to win it the following year, so those mark ups should possibly be taken with a pinch of salt.

One final factor worthy of mention is the betting market. One of the great attractions of the Grand National is that it is perceived to be something of a lottery where big-priced winners can often prevail. In the last ten years, we’ve seen 33/1, 100/1, 33/1, 66/1, 25/1 and 25/1 winners, with no winner under 14/1 in the past five renewals. The rising quality of the race has seemed to make it even more unpredictable than ever before, with even more horses possessing the required ability to win the race actually taking part. In fact, there are very few also-rans in this year’s renewal and it’s very difficult to totally rule out many at all, so don’t home in on the first few in the market and forget the rest, the winner of the Grand National can come from anywhere.

Shortlist

Goonyella – 9/10

Shutthefrontdoor – 9/10

Many Clouds – 7/10

Holywell – 7/10 

Conclusion

Oddly for a 40-runner race, only one horse stands a point clear of the rest at the head of the trends table. JJ Burke’s mount GOONYELLA has the experience of running in the Scottish, Midlands and Irish Grand Nationals, finishing second, first and seventh in those respectively. He’s always looked the perfect type for the Aintree Grand national and if trainer Jim Dreaper has him in top form, the ground, trip and big field will hold no fears for him. He carries a nice racing weight at 10-8 and, at his 20/1 price, looks a decent bet for this year’s big race, just as long as he takes a little better to these national fences – he’s unseated and finished ninth in the last two Becher Chases.

After finishing fifth in last year’s Grand National under Sir A P McCoy, Shutthefrontdoor comes into this year’s renewal a year older and with plenty less expectation to carry on his shoulders. Trainer Jonjo O’Neill has a great record in the race and owner JP McManus’ colours are often carried well in Grand Nationals. O’Neill seems to think that the extra year of maturity will help this horse stay the trip better and he’ll have to after weakening at the elbow in 2015’s renewal – he travelled very well through that race, possibly too well and if he can get into a good rhythm and save a little more energy, he could be right there at the business end again. The trends have him as a clear second pick and also at 20/1, he’s certainly a very fair each-way bet.

Last year’s winner Many Clouds has history against him, with only one of the last 73 winners or placed horses going on to win again, but with a perfect preparation and a clear love of the track and trip, he’s absolutely impossible to rule out. Yes he carries a little more than last year and may of his rivals have pulls at the weights, but he’s still only nine and could well have improved. His price may have gone at 8/1, but he looks sure to run well again.

Amongst the group of seven horses who tick seven of the ten trends boxes is another Jonjo O’Neill trained horse, Holywell, who is infamous for only showing his best form in the spring time. He ran very well behind Un Temps Pour Tout at Cheltenham, who went off favourite for the Grade 1 Mildmay Novices’ Chase here on Friday ahead of RSA winner Blaklion, and if he can carry that form on here to a venue he’s usually gone well at and stay the trip, he’ll hold superb claims as he’s officially 4lb well-in. 16/1 certainly looks fair for a horse of this high ability.

[Blazing Bailey]

I am hoping that the winner comes in the form of one of these, however I havent worked out which one just yet:

 

Morning Assembley

Gallant Oscar

The Druids Nephew

Saint Are

The Romford Pele

Holywell

Many Clouds

Goonyella

Just A Par

Silvianaco Conti

 

I'm not a fan of Rebecca Curtis so TRP is left alone and Many Clouds is too short. Just a Par and Goonyella have both ran poorly over these fences before and the former is out of form and his last win was a weak one. Holywell is an obvious form choice but wont enjoy the forecast rain, The Druids Nephew and Saint Are would prefer better ground but can handle soft well enough. Stamina is likely to be a big issue for Conti. The only one I know I will definitely back at this stage is Gallant Oscar (18/1 6 places BV)

[santos_]

Always hard to whittle down the 40 to some kind of shortlist but here's mine 

MAIN FANCY - The Last Samuri (11/1)
Backed him lto at Doncaster he beat The Druids Nephew by 10 lengths. All roads have led here though and he ticks a lot of boxes and gets in here off a very workable weight. 

CLASS ANGLE - Silviniaco Conti (12/1)
Like Many Clouds to some degree last year and Neptune Collonges a previous winner purely on what they have done before at at higher level you would give them a chance in the National and Silviniaco Conti has even stronger claism then those two previous winner based on what he has done before. Of course racing isn't always that simple and the trip is the big unknown but if he gets around then he has to be a chance. 

OUTSIDERS - OnenightinVienna (40/1) & Viex Lion Rouge (100/1)
Have to throw in a couple of big priced horses too and shall only be putting sheckles on these two! Two 7 year olds who by the stats won't stand a chance but you never know ... OnenightinVienna has shown some ok form in staying races and jumping looks sound enough but he is only 7 and big question mark as to if he can handle this type of race. Viex Lion Rouge has a nice overall profile and is a decent enough chaser his inexperience could be against him and he did seem to empty out lto at Cheltenham but was still a decent effort. Needs a step up but at big odds a chancy e/w shout. 

 

[arsenalfh]

Always like horses who race prominently and have experience over these fences. I'm a big believer in last year's form and Saint Are who was 2nd last year is 2lbs better off with Many Clouds this time around. Arguably he's in better form this time around being 4lbs well in at the weights and I don't think the rain will be an issue as he is real out and out stayer.

I also like the Paul Nicholls trained Unioniste. He fell in this last year when he was fancied by a few but now a year older and after finishing the Becher Chase here back in December I think he's better prepared for this test. He ran off 157 in this last year but gets in off 149 this time around and I think he is in similar form after finishing 2nd to Many Clouds at Kelso receiving just 4lbs compared to the 16lbs he gets today. He likes cut in the ground so the rain will help his chances and his trainer says his schooling has been excellent.

Saint Are e/w @ 18/1 Bet365

Unioniste e/w @ 40/1 Bet365