ipredict - Football statistical predictions

[makkad]

On 22/04/2017, 10:07:19, allen29 said:

@Dumyat Yes, you are right. Thanks for the correction, I modified that now. Initial recommendation from my system was home or draw, but I couldn't find the odds specified anymore, so I just took home, but forgot to modify the side. 

Yes, that is possible. I will post it at my next update.

Just found this thread, I'm seeking a new data source for my prediction model (using Poisson Distribution Method) which covers England, Spain, Italy, Germany leagues. Can you advise on any reliable data sources. Thanks

[allen29]

Last selections: +2.36 pts from 28 bets

Overall: +83.73 pts from 1256 bets (+6.67 % yield)

Here is a spreadsheet with the table I use to track my bank. Somewhere along the way, 3 bets got lost or were not recorded properly and there is a slight difference in the bank value (84.20 vs 83.7 reported here).

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tG2ge6Dw8qb9BgxE0roa2kVqm2wnLcQZ_sJWsGxzvcg/pubhtml?gid=1696433211&single=true

I've been pretty busy this week and didn't have time to make new selections...I'll try to come up with some for Sunday and the next week. 

 

[allen29]

Next selections. Sorry for the bad foramting.

Date	League	Match	Side	Bmk.odds	My.odds	Value	Bookmaker	Timestamp
4/30/2017 12:00	E2	Northampton vs Gillingham	home +0	2.17	1.92	0.13	Pinnacle	4/30/2017 9:25
4/30/2017 12:00	E2	Bristol Rovers vs Millwall	home or draw	1.89	1.68	0.13	Pinnacle	4/30/2017 9:25
4/30/2017 12:00	E2	Rochdale vs Bradford	away	3.54	3.02	0.17	Matchbook	4/30/2017 9:25
4/30/2017 12:00	E2	Bolton vs Peterborough	draw or away	2.75	2.28	0.21	Pinnacle	4/30/2017 9:25
4/30/2017 12:00	E2	Charlton vs Swindon	draw or away	2.22	2.01	0.10	Pinnacle	4/30/2017 9:25
4/30/2017 12:30	D2	Hannover 96 vs Fortuna Dusseldorf	draw or away	2.61	2.44	0.07	Betfair	4/30/2017 9:25
4/30/2017 14:00	F1	Caen vs Marseille	home or draw	2.02	1.79	0.13	Matchbook	4/30/2017 9:25
4/30/2017 14:00	I1	Empoli vs Sassuolo	draw or away	1.89	1.69	0.12	Matchbook	4/30/2017 9:25
4/30/2017 14:00	I1	Genoa vs Chievo Verona	draw or away	2.44	1.73	0.41	Pinnacle	4/30/2017 9:25
4/30/2017 14:05	E0	Everton vs Chelsea	home or draw	2.02	1.85	0.09	Matchbook	4/30/2017 9:25
4/30/2017 15:30	OST	Admira Wacker vs Rapid Wien	home or draw	2.09	1.76	0.19	Pinnacle	4/30/2017 9:25
4/30/2017 16:30	D1	TSG Hoffenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt	away + 1.25	1.75	1.61	0.09	Marathon	4/30/2017 9:25
4/30/2017 17:00	TUR	Istanbul Basaksehir vs Besiktas	home or draw	1.75	1.59	0.10	Matchbook	4/30/2017 9:25
4/30/2017 17:30	SP1	Eibar vs Leganes	home	2.19	1.91	0.15	Matchbook	4/30/2017 9:25
4/30/2017 22:00	COL	Millonarios vs Atletico Huila	away +1.5	1.72	1.53	0.12	Marathon	4/30/2017 9:25
5/1/2017 18:00	TUR	Bursaspor vs Galatasaray	home	3.75	3.26	0.15	bet365	4/30/2017 9:25
5/1/2017 18:00	TUR	Osmanlispor vs Konyaspor	draw or away	2.33	2.13	0.09	Pinnacle	4/30/2017 9:25
5/1/2017 19:45	F2	Lens vs Laval	draw or away	2.49	2.31	0.08	Pinnacle	4/30/2017 9:25
5/1/2017 20:00	SP1	Malaga vs Sevilla	home or draw	2.02	1.75	0.15	Betfair	4/30/2017 9:25
5/2/2017 1:30	COL	Alianza Petrolera vs Cortulua	draw or away	2.33	2.09	0.12	Betfair	4/30/2017 9:25

[allen29]

Hi @makkad.

Depends on what kind of data you need. If you need results + shots, corners cards and odds, then I think football-data is a very good source and the data is easy to get. They also have an API. 

For odds I use oddsportal, but betexplorer has the same data and they use the same match ids as oddsportal. 

My data sources for events (text commentary) have been bbc, espn and onefootball. 

 

[allen29]

Bankroll

Last selections: -0.21 pts from 20 bets

Overall: +83.52 pts from 1276 bets (+6.55% yield)

 

[DirtyMonk]

On 25.04.2017 at 0:15 PM, makkad said:

Just found this thread, I'm seeking a new data source for my prediction model (using Poisson Distribution Method) which covers England, Spain, Italy, Germany leagues. Can you advise on any reliable data sources. Thanks

If you need xG data for the top leagues, check paul riley tables or understat. I have tried that but failed to create success prediction model...maybe you would be more lucky.

[allen29]

Hello, it's been some time since my last post. So, in a nutshell, this thread is not dead yet.

I've worked a lot on improving the data quality and the whole data acquisition process, improving the data model, simplifying the codebase and making this whole thing more reliable and maintaiable. Still, some way to go, but I estimate I will be ready with new predictions in 3-4 weeks. Until then, good fortunes!

 

[Matthew]

Sounds good, looking forward to seeing the fruits of your labour.

[wizzo1970]

looking forward to reading it again, it has been very interesting so far with very good results too

[kenny4rmSA]

interesting indeed

[Vidich]

On 4/25/2017 at 11:15 AM, makkad said:

Just found this thread, I'm seeking a new data source for my prediction model (using Poisson Distribution Method) which covers England, Spain, Italy, Germany leagues. Can you advise on any reliable data sources. Thanks

Certainly, I can recommend you a good data source  which covers much more league that you enumerated.