ipredict - Football statistical predictions

[allen29]

Hey, I'm finally back. Took much longer than expected, but data is stored much more nicely now and it will be easier for the future to add new things or to use it in other ways.

First, last bankroll update: 

Latest selections: -8.81 from 16 bets

Overall: +51.98 from 477 bets (Yield: +10.89%)

Upcoming selections:

Date	League	Match	Side	Bmk.odds	My.odds	Value	Bookmaker	Timestamp	Stake
11/4/2016 19:00	F2	Nimes vs Clermont	2	4.50	3.83	0.17	Marathonbet	11/2/2016 20:05	1
11/4/2016 19:45	F1	Montpellier vs Marseille	1	2.80	2.40	0.17	Pinnacle	11/2/2016 20:05	1
11/5/2016 8:50	AUS	Sydney FC vs Melbourne Victory	2	4.17	3.38	0.23	Pinnacle	11/2/2016 20:05	1
11/5/2016 12:00	D2	Kaiserslautern vs Union Berlin	1	2.88	2.44	0.18	Marathonbet	11/2/2016 20:05	1
11/5/2016 15:00	E0	Bournemouth vs Sunderland	X2	2.43	1.97	0.23	Pinnacle	11/2/2016 20:05	1
11/5/2016 15:00	E0	Burnley vs Crystal Palace	1	3.37	2.70	0.25	Pinnacle	11/2/2016 20:05	1
11/5/2016 15:00	E0	West Ham vs Stoke City	1	2.08	1.89	0.10	Marathonbet	11/2/2016 20:05	1
11/5/2016 15:00	E1	Aston Villa vs Blackburn	X2	2.46	2.04	0.21	Pinnacle	11/2/2016 20:05	1
11/5/2016 15:00	SC0	Kilmarnock vs Hamilton	2	2.76	2.31	0.19	Pinnacle	11/2/2016 20:05	1
11/5/2016 15:00	SC2	Stranraer vs Queen's Park	2	4.33	3.52	0.23	Marathonbet	11/2/2016 20:05	1
11/5/2016 15:00	SC3	Berwick vs Cowdenbeath	2	3.95	3.30	0.20	Marathonbet	11/2/2016 20:05	1
11/5/2016 15:00	SC3	Clyde vs Elgin City	2	3.00	2.69	0.12	Marathonbet	11/2/2016 20:05	1
11/5/2016 17:00	I1	Torino vs Cagliari	X2	2.62	2.15	0.22	Pinnacle	11/2/2016 20:05	1
11/5/2016 19:00	F1	Angers vs Lille	2	3.55	2.92	0.22	Marathonbet	11/2/2016 20:05	1
11/5/2016 19:00	F1	Bordeaux vs Lorient	2	5.20	4.00	0.30	Marathonbet	11/2/2016 20:05	1
11/5/2016 19:45	SP1	Las Palmas vs Eibar	2	4.09	3.57	0.15	Pinnacle	11/2/2016 20:05	1
11/6/2016 12:00	E0	Arsenal vs Tottenham	1	2.00	1.78	0.12	Marathonbet	11/2/2016 20:05	1
11/6/2016 12:30	D2	VfB Stuttgart vs Arminia Bielefeld	2	5.66	4.16	0.36	Pinnacle	11/2/2016 20:05	1
11/6/2016 14:00	I1	Palermo vs AC Milan	1X	2.30	2.08	0.11	Pinnacle	11/2/2016 20:05	1
11/6/2016 14:00	I1	Sassuolo vs Atalanta	1	2.51	2.15	0.17	Pinnacle	11/2/2016 20:05	1
11/6/2016 15:15	SP1	Celta Vigo vs Valencia	1	2.33	2.07	0.13	Pinnacle	11/2/2016 20:05	1
11/6/2016 16:00	F1	Metz vs St Etienne	1	3.97	3.34	0.19	Pinnacle	11/2/2016 20:05	1
11/6/2016 22:30	COL	Cortulua vs Junior	1	3.34	2.89	0.16	Marathonbet	11/2/2016 20:05	1
11/7/2016 22:00	ARG	Aldosivi vs Defensa y Justicia	1	3.36	2.51	0.34	Marathonbet	11/2/2016 20:05	1

Edited November 3, 2016 by allen29
Table had some issues

[vikki37]

Welcome back! 

[allen29]

Bankroll

Latest selections: -5.86 from 24 bets

Overall: +46.12 from 501 bets (Yield: +9.20%)

New selections coming soon (most likely tomorrow).

[allen29]

Next selections: 

Date	League	Match	Side	Bmk.odds	My.odds	Value	Bookmaker	Timestamp	Stake
11/12/2016 15:00	E3	Luton vs Accrington	2	3.61	3.17	0.14	Pinnacle	11/8/2016 10:13	1
11/12/2016 15:00	SC1	Hibernian vs Falkirk	1	1.67	1.47	0.14	Marathonbet	11/8/2016 10:13	1
11/12/2016 15:00	E3	Colchester vs Leyton Orient	2	3.33	2.96	0.13	Marathonbet	11/8/2016 10:13	1
11/12/2016 15:00	SC3	Cowdenbeath vs Montrose	1	2.20	1.90	0.16	Marathonbet	11/8/2016 10:13	1
11/12/2016 15:00	E3	Blackpool vs Notts County	2	4.34	3.77	0.15	Pinnacle	11/8/2016 10:13	1
11/12/2016 15:00	SC2	Albion Rovers vs Stranraer	2	3.15	2.59	0.22	Marathonbet	11/8/2016 10:13	1
11/13/2016 11:00	SP2	Lugo vs Rayo Vallecano	2	3.33	2.80	0.19	Pinnacle	11/8/2016 10:13	1

 

[allen29]

Bankroll

Latest selections: -1.47 from 7 bets

Overall: +44.65 from 508 bets (Yield: +8.79%)

Next selections:

Date	League	Match	Side	Bmk.odds	My.odds	Value	Bookmaker	Timestamp	Stake
11/19/2016 15:00	E3	Leyton Orient vs Blackpool	1	3.02	2.74	0.10	Marathonbet	11/13/2016 23:24	1
11/19/2016 15:00	E3	Plymouth vs Grimsby	2	4.50	3.93	0.15	Marathonbet	11/13/2016 23:24	1
11/19/2016 15:00	E1	Cardiff vs Huddersfield	1	2.60	2.28	0.14	Marathonbet	11/13/2016 23:24	1
11/19/2016 15:00	E3	Morecambe vs Luton	1	4.57	4.06	0.13	Marathonbet	11/13/2016 23:24	1
11/19/2016 15:00	E3	Cheltenham vs Portsmouth	1	4.30	3.76	0.14	Marathonbet	11/13/2016 23:24	1
11/19/2016 19:00	F1	Toulouse vs Metz	X2	2.75	2.50	0.10	Pinnacle	11/13/2016 23:24	1
11/19/2016 23:00	ARG	Huracan vs Racing Club	1	3.50	3.06	0.14	Marathonbet	11/13/2016 23:24	1
11/20/2016 16:00	E0	Middlesbrough vs Chelsea	1X	2.69	2.15	0.25	Pinnacle	11/13/2016 23:24	1
11/20/2016 20:00	ARG	Quilmes vs Aldosivi	2	5.10	3.28	0.55	Marathonbet	11/13/2016 23:24	1
11/21/2016 17:00	TUR	Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor	2	4.83	3.39	0.42	Pinnacle	11/13/2016 23:24	1
11/21/2016 19:30	F2	Brest vs Niort	2	5.00	4.02	0.24	Marathonbet	11/13/2016 23:24	1
11/21/2016 19:45	SP2	Leganes vs Osasuna	2	4.69	3.66	0.28	Marathonbet	11/13/2016 23:24	1
11/26/2016 11:00	RUS	CSKA Moscow vs Rubin Kazan	1	1.95	1.68	0.16	Marathonbet	11/13/2016 23:24	1

 

[allen29]

Bankroll

Latest selections: +7.68 from 12 bets

Overall: +52.33 from 520 bets (Yield: +10.1%)

Next selections coming soon!

[allen29]

Next selections:

Date	League	Match	Side	Bmk.odds	My.odds	Value	Bookmaker	Timestamp	Stake
11/25/2016 19:00	F2	GFC Ajaccio vs Sochaux	2	4.15	3.57	0.16	Marathonbet	11/21/2016 15:11	1
11/26/2016 11:00	RUS	CSKA Moscow vs Rubin Kazan	1	1.95	1.68	0.16	Marathonbet	11/13/2016 23:24	1
11/26/2016 15:00	E1	Ipswich vs QPR	2	3.65	3.30	0.11	Pinnacle	11/21/2016 15:11	1
11/26/2016 15:00	E2	Chesterfield vs Bristol Rovers	1	4.05	3.39	0.19	Marathonbet	11/23/2016 23:17	1
11/26/2016 15:00	E2	Walsall vs Southend	1	2.67	2.23	0.20	Pinnacle	11/23/2016 23:17	1
11/26/2016 15:00	E3	Doncaster vs Leyton Orient	2	5.10	4.07	0.25	Pinnacle	11/23/2016 23:17	1
11/26/2016 15:00	E3	Accrington vs Yeovil	1	2.12	1.84	0.15	Marathonbet	11/23/2016 23:17	1
11/26/2016 15:00	SC0	Ross County vs Hamilton	2	4.00	2.88	0.39	Marathonbet	11/21/2016 15:11	1
11/26/2016 17:00	SP2	UCAM Murcia vs Numancia	1	2.28	2.06	0.11	Pinnacle	11/23/2016 23:17	1
11/26/2016 17:30	E1	Rotherham vs Leeds	1	4.26	3.44	0.24	Pinnacle	11/21/2016 15:11	1
11/26/2016 17:30	E1	Chelsea vs Tottenham	X2	2.23	1.96	0.14	Pinnacle	11/21/2016 15:11	1
11/26/2016 17:30	NED	Vitesse vs Excelsior	2 AH +1.5	1.76	1.61	0.09	Marathonbet	11/21/2016 15:11	1
11/26/2016 19:00	F1	Nantes vs Lille	2	3.60	3.20	0.13	Pinnacle	11/21/2016 15:11	1
11/27/2016 15:00	SP2	Huesca vs Girona	1	2.97	2.49	0.19	Pinnacle	11/23/2016 23:17	1
11/27/2016 19:00	SP2	Levante vs Rayo Vallecano	2	4.60	4.12	0.12	Marathonbet	11/23/2016 23:17	1
11/27/2016 20:00	ARG	Aldosivi vs Velez Sarsfield	1	2.89	2.10	0.38	Marathonbet	11/23/2016 23:17	1
11/27/2016 21:30	ARG	San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors	2	3.20	2.75	0.16	Marathonbet	11/23/2016 23:17	1
11/27/2016 23:00	ARG	Racing Club vs Independiente	2	4.00	3.30	0.21	Marathonbet	11/23/2016 23:17	1
11/28/2016 19:15	D2	VfB Stuttgart vs Nurnberg	2	4.34	3.75	0.16	Marathonbet	11/21/2016 15:11	1
11/28/2016 19:45	E1	Huddersfield vs Wigan	2	4.54	3.83	0.19	Pinnacle	11/21/2016 15:11	1
11/28/2016 20:00	ARG	Defensa y Justicia vs Patronato	1	2.15	1.92	0.12	Marathonbet	11/23/2016 23:17	1
11/30/2016 18:00	F1	Bastia vs Bordeaux	1	3.70	2.54	0.46	Marathonbet	11/21/2016 15:11	1
11/30/2016 18:00	F1	St Etienne vs Marseille	1	2.47	2.17	0.14	Marathonbet	11/23/2016 23:17	1
11/30/2016 18:00	F1	Guingamp vs Nice	1	3.15	2.77	0.14	Marathonbet	11/23/2016 23:17	1

[Lennon]

Hi Allen. Very impressive results! Encouraging to see since I'm working on a similar project.

What method do you use to come up with your results? What I mean is, simple Poisson, Dixon-Coles method, Conway-Maxwell method, or something else? 
Also, why did you choose the method that you did? Is it because you believe it has the best predictive accuracy or maybe because it's the easiest to set up?

I created a Poisson-Elo model myself (much like the one at clubelo, except with extra parameters to account for lineup strength) but I'm not very happy with it so I'm looking for something more advanced.

[allen29]

Hi Lennon.

First, I use an own variation of calculating expected goals that includes also information about the player quality, the assister's quality and the opposition goalkeeper quality. I tested against classic expected goals method and it is more predictive in this way. Classic XG will underestimate very strong teams.

Then for each played game I calculate the win expectation for each side based on the expected goals using a linear mixed-effects model. 

Next, I calculate historical averages for long-term and short-term (form) for each team and for each league. I also calculate some indexes that combine multiple statistics based on their predictive capability (more predictive stats are given higher weight).

When it comes to predicting the outcomes, I first predict the draw probability separately by averaging predictions from multiple models. I don't know exactly why, but for draws, it is more accurate when I do this compared to predicting all the 3 possible outcomes. Then I have several models that predict probabilities for the game outcome and adjust those according to the estimated draw probability. Very important step is to adjust for league factors, especially home advantage and frequency of draws.

It is purely predictive-accuracy driven. Implementation is super cumbersome and took a lot of time. Models used range from logistic regression to gradient boosting, support vector machines, random forest, from which I weight their predictions to calculate the final ones.

[Lennon]

That makes sense. The likes of Messi and Bale would obviously have better finishing rates than your average striker.

Wow, that does sound complex. Did you build your model in R, or something else? With zero programming experience I'm not sure if I should learn R or go with something simpler like Python. 

Have you thought about scraping more accurate xG data from the shot maps at whoscored and similar sites? Not even sure if that's possible to be honest but I'm sure it's a lot more difficult than scraping text.

Finally, when you were backtesting did you use Marathon odds? Reason I ask is because you gotta think that if you're successful it's only a matter of time before you get limited.

Personally I'd test my models vs. closing Pinny odds because being able to bet decent amounts at those Euro bookies isn't going to last forever.

[allen29]

Bankroll

Latest selections: -0.02 from 20 selections

Overall: +52.31 from 540 bets (Yield: +9.69%)

Levants vs Rayo Vallecano was postponed

Next selections:

Date	League	Match	Side	Bmk.odds	My.odds	Value	Bookmaker	Timestamp	Stake
11/30/2016 14:00	RUS	FC Ural vs FC Rostov	2	2.65	2.32	0.14	Pinnacle	11/30/2016 10:03	1
11/30/2016 17:00	DEN	FC Nordsjaelland vs Horsens	2	3.96	3.49	0.13	Pinnacle	11/30/2016 10:03	1
11/30/2016 18:00	F1	Bastia vs Bordeaux	1	3.70	2.54	0.46	Marathonbet	11/21/2016 15:11	1
11/30/2016 18:00	F1	St Etienne vs Marseille	1	2.47	2.17	0.14	Marathonbet	11/23/2016 23:17	1
11/30/2016 18:00	F1	Guingamp vs Nice	1	3.15	2.77	0.14	Marathonbet	11/23/2016 23:17	1
11/30/2016 19:30	OST	Austria Wien vs Red Bull Salzburg	1	4.58	3.57	0.28	Pinnacle	11/30/2016 10:03	1
12/1/2016 15:00	RUS	Krylia Sovetov Samara vs Spartak Moscow	1	4.5	3.55	0.27	Marathonbet	11/30/2016 10:03	1
12/2/2016 8:50	AUS	Melbourne Victory vs Perth Glory	X2	2.48	2.13	0.16	Pinnacle	11/30/2016 10:03	1
12/2/2016 19:00	NED	Heracles vs NEC Nijmegen	2	4.46	3.92	0.14	Pinnacle	11/30/2016 10:03	1
12/2/2016 19:45	SC1	Dundee United vs Hibernian	2	2.75	2.47	0.11	Marathonbet	11/30/2016 10:03	1
12/3/2016 0:15	ARG	Quilmes vs Sarmiento de Junin	2	4.75	3.65	0.30	Marathonbet	11/30/2016 10:03	1
12/3/2016 6:35	AUS	Central Coast Mariners vs Western Sydney Wanderers	2	1.94	1.74	0.11	Pinnacle	11/30/2016 10:03	1
12/3/2016 12:00	SP1	Granada vs Sevilla	1X	2.17	1.88	0.15	Pinnacle	11/30/2016 10:03	1
12/3/2016 14:30	D1	Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg	2X	2.81	2.17	0.29	Pinnacle	11/30/2016 10:03	1
12/3/2016 15:00	E1	Blackburn vs Huddersfield	1	2.77	2.50	0.11	Pinnacle	11/30/2016 10:03	1
12/3/2016 15:00	E1	Fulham vs Reading	2	3.87	3.27	0.18	Pinnacle	11/30/2016 10:03	1
12/3/2016 15:00	SC0	Rangers vs Aberdeen	1	2.21	1.89	0.17	Pinnacle	11/30/2016 10:03	1
12/3/2016 15:00	SC0	St. Johnstone vs Inverness Caledonian Thistle	2	4.10	3.48	0.18	Marathonbet	11/30/2016 10:03	1
12/3/2016 15:00	SC1	Falkirk vs St. Mirren	X2	2.76	2.34	0.18	Marathonbet	11/30/2016 10:03	1
12/3/2016 15:00	SC2	Queen's Park vs Brechin	1	3.45	2.41	0.43	Marathonbet	11/30/2016 10:03	1
12/3/2016 15:00	SC3	Cowdenbeath vs Clyde	1	3.30	2.72	0.21	Marathonbet	11/30/2016 10:03	1
12/3/2016 15:15	SP1	Barcelona vs Real Madrid	2	4.12	3.15	0.31	Pinnacle	11/30/2016 10:03	1
12/3/2016 17:30	D1	RB Leipzig vs Schalke 04	1	2.03	1.80	0.13	Pinnacle	11/30/2016 10:03	1
12/3/2016 17:30	NED	Go Ahead Eagles vs sc Heerenveen	1	4.19	3.20	0.31	Pinnacle	11/30/2016 10:03	1
12/3/2016 19:00	SP2	Cadiz vs Real Zaragoza	2	3.72	3.20	0.16	Pinnacle	11/30/2016 10:03	1
12/3/2016 20:45	ARG	Newell's Old Boys vs Banfield	X2	1.96	1.78	0.10	Marathonbet	11/30/2016 10:03	1
12/4/2016 10:30	TUR	Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor	2	3.22	2.75	0.17	Pinnacle	11/30/2016 10:03	1
12/4/2016 13:00	RUS	Lokomotiv Moscow vs Terek Grozny	1	2.28	1.99	0.15	Marathonbet	11/30/2016 10:03	1
12/4/2016 14:30	D1	SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hamburg SV	1	2.84	2.50	0.14	Pinnacle	11/30/2016 10:03	1
12/4/2016 16:00	TUR	Kasimpasa S.K. vs Galatasaray	1	4.05	2.90	0.40	Pinnacle	11/30/2016 10:03	1
12/4/2016 16:30	D1	FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt	2	2.88	2.55	0.13	Pinnacle	11/30/2016 10:03	1
12/4/2016 17:30	SP1	Sporting Gijon vs Osasuna	2	4.17	3.75	0.11	Pinnacle	11/30/2016 10:03	1
12/4/2016 19:45	SP1	Valencia vs Malaga	2	4.72	3.59	0.31	Pinnacle	11/30/2016 10:03	1
12/4/2016 20:00	CHI	Deportes Iquique vs Universidad Catolica	2	2.77	2.45	0.13	Pinnacle	11/30/2016 10:03	1

@Lennon

It took me a while. Most complex part is acquiring the data and integrating it into one standardized format. Yeah, models were built with R and are saved on my pc. I'm not sure that python is simpler, it could be faster in terms of execution speed.

I thought about that when I was starting, but at the moment I wouldn't do it. I don't think it will make a big difference and I already have a lot of data in the current format and I'm happy with the results, I prefer improving on what I already have. Also, only a few leagues have this kind of data.

I didn't backtest againt one specific bookmaker, because it was impossible to find one that covered all my games. I was using closing odds from oddsportal. I took the best odds and then lowered them a bit to reflect more realistically what odds I could get in real life. The backtesting results were somewhat worse than the results at the moment, but still pretty good...my explanation is that closing odds are much harder to beat and when I bet now I select the bets few days in advance where I can better spot some mismatched odds.

Edited November 30, 2016 by allen29

[allen29]

Bankroll

Latest selections: +6.94 from 35 selections

Overall: +59.25 from 575 bets (Yield: +10.30%)

 

[allen29]

Next selections, and longest so far:

Date	League	Match	Side	Bmk.odds	My.odds	Value	Bookmaker	Timestamp	Stake
12/8/2016 18:00	CHI	Palestino vs Colo Colo	X2	2.65	1.55	0.71	Marathonbet	12/8/2016 8:32	1
12/8/2016 21:00	CHI	Audax Italiano vs Deportes Iquique	1	3.68	2.80	0.31	Pinnacle	12/8/2016 8:32	1
12/9/2016 17:30	D2	FC Heidenheim 1846 vs Union Berlin	1	2.71	2.44	0.11	Pinnacle	12/8/2016 8:32	1
12/9/2016 19:00	F2	GFC Ajaccio vs AC Ajaccio	1	2.22	1.97	0.13	Pinnacle	12/8/2016 8:32	1
12/9/2016 19:00	F2	Troyes vs AJ Auxerre	1	1.91	1.71	0.12	Marathonbet	12/8/2016 8:32	1
12/9/2016 19:00	F2	Tours vs Laval	2	3.54	3.22	0.10	Marathonbet	12/8/2016 8:32	1
12/9/2016 19:00	SP2	Sevilla B vs Reus Deportiu	2	3.9	3.48	0.12	Pinnacle	12/8/2016 8:32	1
12/9/2016 19:00	F2	Red Star vs Valenciennes	2	3.79	3.41	0.11	Pinnacle	12/8/2016 8:32	1
12/9/2016 19:00	NED	FC Groningen vs Roda JC	X2	2.23	1.98	0.13	Pinnacle	12/8/2016 8:32	1
12/9/2016 19:45	F1	Dijon FCO vs Marseille	1	3.1	2.70	0.15	Pinnacle	12/8/2016 8:32	1
12/9/2016 19:45	SC0	Partick Thistle vs Celtic	1 +1.5	2.31	1.98	0.17	Pinnacle	12/8/2016 8:32	1
12/10/2016 6:35	AUS	Wellington Phoenix FC vs Central Coast Mariners	X2	2.33	2.08	0.12	Pinnacle	12/8/2016 8:32	1
12/10/2016 14:30	D1	Hamburg SV vs FC Augsburg	2	3.44	2.96	0.16	Pinnacle	12/8/2016 8:32	1
12/10/2016 14:30	D1	FC Cologne vs Borussia Dortmund	1X	2.44	2.01	0.21	Pinnacle	12/8/2016 8:32	1
12/10/2016 15:00	SC2	Queen's Park vs Albion Rovers	1	2.53	2.11	0.20	Pinnacle	12/8/2016 8:32	1
12/10/2016 15:00	E0	Burnley vs Bournemouth	1	3.62	3.20	0.13	Pinnacle	12/8/2016 8:32	1
12/10/2016 15:00	SC2	Stranraer vs Livingston	1	4.5	3.04	0.48	Marathonbet	12/8/2016 8:32	1
12/10/2016 15:00	SC1	St. Mirren vs Raith Rovers	1	3.34	2.90	0.15	Marathonbet	12/8/2016 8:32	1
12/10/2016 15:00	SC0	Dundee vs Ross County	1	2.54	2.29	0.11	Pinnacle	12/8/2016 8:32	1
12/10/2016 15:00	E1	Huddersfield vs Bristol City	2	3.55	3.11	0.14	Pinnacle	12/8/2016 8:32	1
12/10/2016 15:00	SC0	Inverness Caledonian Thistle vs Hamilton	2	4.05	2.84	0.42	Pinnacle	12/8/2016 8:32	1
12/10/2016 15:00	SC0	Motherwell vs Kilmarnock	2	4.04	3.42	0.18	Pinnacle	12/8/2016 8:32	1
12/10/2016 15:00	SC1	Ayr United vs Dundee United	1X	2.32	1.99	0.17	Pinnacle	12/8/2016 8:32	1
12/10/2016 15:00	E2	Peterborough vs Chesterfield	X2	2.32	2.07	0.12	Pinnacle	12/8/2016 8:32	1
12/10/2016 17:00	SP2	Huesca vs UCAM Murcia	1	2.31	2.01	0.15	Pinnacle	12/8/2016 8:32	1
12/10/2016 17:15	SC2	Brechin vs East Fife	2	3.56	3.21	0.11	Pinnacle	12/8/2016 8:32	1
12/10/2016 17:30	OST	SV Mattersburg vs Admira Wacker	1	2.56	2.32	0.10	Pinnacle	12/8/2016 8:32	1
12/10/2016 17:30	NED	NEC Nijmegen vs ADO Den Haag	2	3.6	2.82	0.28	Pinnacle	12/8/2016 8:32	1
12/10/2016 17:30	E1	Preston vs Blackburn	2	4.07	3.69	0.10	Pinnacle	12/8/2016 8:32	1
12/10/2016 17:30	E0	Leicester City vs Manchester City	1X	2.22	1.84	0.20	Pinnacle	12/8/2016 8:32	1
12/10/2016 18:45	NED	sc Heerenveen vs Excelsior	X2	2.92	2.19	0.34	Marathonbet	12/8/2016 8:32	1
12/10/2016 19:00	F1	Nantes vs Caen	2	4.25	3.70	0.15	Pinnacle	12/8/2016 8:32	1
12/10/2016 20:00	ARG	Talleres Cordoba vs Newell's Old Boys	1	2.39	2.12	0.13	Pinnacle	12/8/2016 8:32	1
12/11/2016 12:00	DEN	Randers FC vs Esbjerg	X2	2.543815916	2.27	0.12	Pinnacle	12/8/2016 8:32	1
12/11/2016 12:30	D2	SpVgg Greuther Furth vs St Pauli	2	3.88	3.35	0.16	Pinnacle	12/8/2016 8:32	1
12/11/2016 14:00	I1	Palermo vs Chievo Verona	2	2.74	2.24	0.22	Marathonbet	12/8/2016 8:32	1
12/11/2016 14:00	I1	Atalanta vs Udinese	X2	2.22	1.98	0.12	Pinnacle	12/8/2016 8:32	1
12/11/2016 16:00	TUR	Galatasaray vs Gaziantepspor	2 +1.5	1.95	1.74	0.12	Marathonbet	12/8/2016 8:32	1
12/11/2016 20:00	ARG	River Plate vs Boca Juniors	1	2.91	2.48	0.17	Marathonbet	12/8/2016 8:32	1
12/11/2016 22:00	ARG	San Martin de San Juan vs Estudiantes La Plata	1	3.82	3.03	0.26	Pinnacle	12/8/2016 8:32	1
12/11/2016 22:00	ARG	Banfield vs Huracan	2	4.85	3.71	0.31	Marathonbet	12/8/2016 8:32	1
12/11/2016 22:15	ARG	Colon de Santa Fe vs Independiente	1	3.55	3.17	0.12	Pinnacle	12/8/2016 8:32	1
12/11/2016 23:00	ARG	Rosario Central vs Lanus	1	4.35	2.72	0.60	Pinnacle	12/8/2016 8:32	1
12/12/2016 17:00	TUR	Antalyaspor vs Fenerbahce	1X	2.27	1.94	0.17	Pinnacle	12/8/2016 8:32	1
12/12/2016 19:30	F2	Orleans vs Stade de Reims	1	2.97	2.64	0.12	Marathonbet	12/8/2016 8:32	1
12/12/2016 19:45	SP1	Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid	1	4.73	2.94	0.61	Pinnacle	12/8/2016 8:32	1
12/14/2016 19:45	E0	Middlesbrough vs Liverpool	1X	2.51	2.21	0.13	Pinnacle	12/8/2016 8:32	1
12/14/2016 20:00	E0	Crystal Palace vs Manchester Utd	1	4.92	3.84	0.28	Pinnacle	12/8/2016 8:32	1

[allen29]

Great results so far! 

Bankroll

Latest selection: +14.07 from 45 bets (Nantes vs Caen was postponed, Middlesbrough vs Liverpool and Crystal Palace vs Man Utd still ongoing)

Overall: +73.32 from 620 bets (Yield: +11.83%)

Edited December 12, 2016 by allen29

[aftershock9]

Really great results. Congrats on the hard work and perseverance! How did you come to the this specific strategy of combining these betting strategies? I have been reading and researching for a good few years and have never seen this combination of strategies or even heard of them before.

[Crystal Gecko]

I must commend your unconventional approach. Predicting value on odds at least 48hrs before game  kickoff works! I'm testing a system to predict draws in the current season of the Top five European leagues. I agree with you that Beating the Pinnacle closing line is next to impossible. As with any system, it takes a lot of guts to stick  to a predicted outcome. Your (Villarreal vs. Athletico Madrid ) punt was spot on!! So have many others. My approach incorporates market trends at least 24 hrs before kickoff. What's your view on market trends?

[allen29]

Middlesbrough vs Liverpool and Crystal Palace vs Man Utd were both lost, so that makes it

Overall: +71.32 from 622 bets (Yield: +11.46%)

Next selections:

Date	League	Match	Side	Bmk.odds	My.odds	Value	Bookmaker	Timestamp	Stake
12/16/2016 19:00	F2	Laval vs Amiens AC	away	3.07	2.71	0.13	Pinnacle	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/16/2016 19:00	F2	AC Ajaccio vs Nimes	away	3.99	3.35	0.19	Pinnacle	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/16/2016 19:00	F2	AJ Auxerre vs Valenciennes	away	3.46	3.02	0.14	Marathon	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/16/2016 19:30	D1	TSG Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund	home	4.40	3.75	0.17	Marathon	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/16/2016 19:45	F1	Angers vs Nantes	home	2.30	2.02	0.14	Pinnacle	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/16/2016 19:45	SP1	Alaves vs Real Betis	home	2.40	2.20	0.09	Matchbook	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/16/2016 19:45	SC0	Hamilton vs Rangers	home or draw	2.47	2.10	0.18	Marathon	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/17/2016 6:35	AUS	Wellington Phoenix FC vs Western Sydney Wanderers	away	2.52	2.18	0.15	Pinnacle	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/17/2016 8:50	AUS	Melbourne City FC vs Melbourne Victory	away	3.06	2.73	0.12	Pinnacle	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/17/2016 11:00	AUS	Perth Glory vs Sydney FC	home	4.10	3.01	0.36	Matchbook	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/17/2016 12:00	D2	Karlsruher SC vs TSV Eintracht Braunschweig	home	3.66	2.85	0.29	Matchbook	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/17/2016 12:00	SP1	Sporting Gijon vs Villarreal	home	3.78	3.37	0.12	Marathon	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/17/2016 14:00	I1	Empoli vs Cagliari	away	3.92	3.12	0.26	Pinnacle	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/17/2016 14:00	F2	Lens vs GFC Ajaccio	away	4.55	3.91	0.16	Matchbook	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/17/2016 14:30	D1	Werder Bremen vs FC Cologne	home	2.70	2.43	0.11	Pinnacle	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/17/2016 14:30	D1	RB Leipzig vs Hertha Berlin	home	1.69	1.53	0.11	Matchbook	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/17/2016 14:30	D1	Schalke 04 vs SC Freiburg	draw or away	2.30	2.03	0.13	Marathon	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/17/2016 15:00	SC2	Stenhousemuir vs Albion Rovers	home	3.16	2.77	0.14	Marathon	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/17/2016 15:00	SC1	Dumbarton vs Falkirk	home	4.15	3.36	0.24	Marathon	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/17/2016 15:00	SC3	Cowdenbeath vs Forfar Athletic	home	3.60	2.77	0.30	Pinnacle	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/17/2016 15:00	E2	Gillingham vs MK Dons	home	3.14	2.70	0.17	Pinnacle	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/17/2016 15:00	E2	Charlton vs Peterborough	home	2.38	2.13	0.12	Pinnacle	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/17/2016 15:00	E3	Accrington vs Plymouth	home	2.79	2.47	0.13	Pinnacle	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/17/2016 15:00	E3	Barnet vs Stevenage	home	2.66	2.17	0.23	Pinnacle	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/17/2016 15:00	OST	SV Josko Ried vs Sturm Graz	home	3.68	3.23	0.14	Pinnacle	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/17/2016 15:00	SC1	St. Mirren vs Ayr United	away	3.72	3.13	0.19	Pinnacle	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/17/2016 15:00	E3	Cambridge Utd vs Crewe	away	4.50	3.70	0.22	Marathon	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/17/2016 15:00	SC1	Queen of the South vs Dunfermline	away	3.81	3.24	0.18	Pinnacle	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/17/2016 15:00	SC3	Arbroath vs Elgin City	away	2.78	2.53	0.10	Pinnacle	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/17/2016 15:00	E3	Exeter vs Mansfield	away	3.47	3.19	0.09	Pinnacle	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/17/2016 15:00	SC2	East Fife vs Peterhead	away	2.96	2.71	0.09	Pinnacle	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/17/2016 15:00	SC2	Brechin vs Stranraer	away	2.79	2.50	0.12	Pinnacle	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/17/2016 16:00	TUR	Kasimpasa S.K. vs Besiktas	home or draw	2.70	2.03	0.33	Pinnacle	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/17/2016 17:30	SP1	Granada vs Real Sociedad	home	3.92	3.15	0.24	Matchbook	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/17/2016 17:30	E0	West Brom vs Manchester Utd	home or draw	2.31	1.88	0.23	Pinnacle	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/17/2016 20:00	ARG	Sarmiento de Junin vs Aldosivi	away	3.82	3.44	0.11	Matchbook	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/18/2016 11:30	I1	Sassuolo vs Internazionale	home	3.94	3.19	0.23	Marathon	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/18/2016 12:00	E1	QPR vs Aston Villa	home	3.60	3.18	0.13	Matchbook	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/18/2016 12:30	D2	FC Wurzburger Kickers vs VfB Stuttgart	home	3.81	3.40	0.12	Pinnacle	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/18/2016 13:30	NED	FC Groningen vs Go Ahead Eagles	draw or away	2.73	2.25	0.21	Pinnacle	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/18/2016 14:00	I1	US Pescara vs Bologna	home	2.48	2.17	0.14	Pinnacle	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/18/2016 15:30	OST	SCR Altach vs Rapid Wien	away	2.67	2.21	0.21	Pinnacle	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/18/2016 16:00	TUR	Osmanlispor vs Galatasaray	home	2.75	2.38	0.16	Marathon	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/18/2016 17:30	SP1	Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna	draw or away	2.65	2.17	0.22	Pinnacle	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/18/2016 19:45	I1	Lazio vs Fiorentina	away	4.00	3.46	0.16	Pinnacle	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/18/2016 19:45	I1	Genoa vs Palermo	draw or away	2.65	2.27	0.17	Pinnacle	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/18/2016 20:00	ARG	Belgrano de Cordoba vs Rosario Central	home	2.50	2.27	0.10	Matchbook	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/18/2016 20:00	ARG	Lanus vs San Lorenzo	home	2.22	1.96	0.13	Matchbook	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/18/2016 22:30	ARG	Newell's Old Boys vs San Martin de San Juan	draw or away	2.27	1.86	0.22	Pinnacle	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/19/2016 17:00	TUR	Bursaspor vs Antalyaspor	away	3.96	3.54	0.12	Marathon	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/19/2016 19:30	F2	Stade de Reims vs Troyes	home	2.20	2.01	0.09	Marathon	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/20/2016 19:00	D1	Eintracht Frankfurt vs Mainz	away	3.80	3.37	0.13	Marathon	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/21/2016 19:00	D1	FC Cologne vs Bayer Leverkusen	home	3.16	2.86	0.10	Marathon	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/21/2016 19:00	D1	FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SC Freiburg	away	3.50	2.88	0.21	Pinnacle	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/21/2016 19:00	D1	Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig	away +1.5	1.99	1.75	0.14	Marathon	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/21/2016 19:50	F1	Lille vs Stade Rennes	home	2.20	1.92	0.14	Marathon	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/21/2016 19:50	F1	Metz vs Guingamp	away	2.96	2.64	0.12	Marathon	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/21/2016 19:50	F1	Nantes vs Montpellier	away	3.36	2.95	0.14	Marathon	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/21/2016 19:50	F1	Dijon FCO vs Toulouse	away	3.25	2.74	0.18	Marathon	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/22/2016 19:45	I1	Fiorentina vs Napoli	home	3.44	2.75	0.25	Marathon	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/22/2016 19:45	I1	Torino vs Genoa	away	4.55	3.79	0.20	Marathon	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1

[allen29]

Update: Bankroll

Latest selection: -10.2 from 53 bets

Overall: +61.12 from 675 bets (Yield: +9.05%)

Christmas selections (including the ones that were not decided since last post):

Date	League	Match	Side	Bmk.odds	My.odds	Value	Bookmaker	Timestamp	Stake
12/21/2016 19:00	D1	FC Cologne vs Bayer Leverkusen	home	3.16	2.86	0.10	Marathon	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/21/2016 19:00	D1	FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SC Freiburg	away	3.50	2.88	0.21	Pinnacle	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/21/2016 19:00	D1	Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig	away +1.5	1.99	1.75	0.14	Marathon	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/21/2016 19:50	F1	Lille vs Stade Rennes	home	2.20	1.92	0.14	Marathon	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/21/2016 19:50	F1	Metz vs Guingamp	away	2.96	2.64	0.12	Marathon	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/21/2016 19:50	F1	Nantes vs Montpellier	away	3.36	2.95	0.14	Marathon	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/21/2016 19:50	F1	Dijon FCO vs Toulouse	away	3.25	2.74	0.18	Marathon	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/22/2016 19:45	I1	Fiorentina vs Napoli	home	3.44	2.75	0.25	Marathon	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/22/2016 19:45	I1	Torino vs Genoa	away	4.55	3.79	0.20	Marathon	12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM	1
12/21/2016 19:00	D1	TSG Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen	draw or away	2.55	2.23	0.14	Pinnacle	12/21/2016 12:09	1
12/21/2016 19:50	F1	Bastia vs Marseille	home	3.70	2.80	0.32	Matchbook	12/21/2016 12:09	1
12/21/2016 19:50	F1	Lyon vs Angers	away +1.5	1.87	1.71	0.09	Marathon	12/21/2016 12:09	1
12/21/2016 19:50	F1	AS Monaco vs Caen	away +1.5	2.25	2.05	0.10	Marathon	12/21/2016 12:09	1
12/22/2016 19:45	I1	Palermo vs US Pescara	away	3.86	2.79	0.38	Marathon	12/21/2016 12:09	1
12/22/2016 19:45	I1	AS Roma vs Chievo Verona	away +1.5	1.94	1.77	0.10	Marathon	12/21/2016 12:09	1
12/23/2016 19:45	SC0	Kilmarnock vs St. Johnstone	home	3.80	3.32	0.15	Matchbook	12/21/2016 12:09	1
12/23/2016 19:45	SC0	Ross County vs Partick Thistle	away	3.43	2.91	0.18	Pinnacle	12/21/2016 12:09	1
12/24/2016 13:00	SC2	Stranraer vs Airdrieonians	home	2.55	2.14	0.19	Marathon	12/21/2016 12:09	1
12/24/2016 13:00	SC3	Cowdenbeath vs Arbroath	home	3.30	2.50	0.32	Marathon	12/21/2016 12:09	1
12/24/2016 13:00	SC2	Albion Rovers vs East Fife	away	3.50	2.83	0.24	Marathon	12/21/2016 12:09	1
12/24/2016 13:00	SC3	Montrose vs Stirling	away	3.04	2.49	0.22	Pinnacle	12/21/2016 12:09	1
12/24/2016 14:00	SC2	Livingston vs Queen's Park	draw or away	3.15	2.67	0.18	Marathon	12/21/2016 12:09	1
12/26/2016 8:50	AUS	Adelaide United vs Sydney FC	home	3.64	2.98	0.22	Matchbook	12/21/2016 12:09	1
12/26/2016 13:00	E3	Leyton Orient vs Crawley Town	away	3.80	3.42	0.11	Matchbook	12/21/2016 12:09	1
12/26/2016 15:00	E3	Crewe vs Carlisle	home	3.96	3.56	0.11	Marathon	12/21/2016 12:09	1
12/26/2016 15:00	SC1	Dunfermline vs Falkirk	home	2.90	2.62	0.11	Pinnacle	12/21/2016 12:09	1
12/26/2016 15:00	E0	Burnley vs Middlesbrough	home	3.16	2.59	0.22	Matchbook	12/21/2016 12:09	1
12/26/2016 15:00	E2	Millwall vs Swindon	home	1.79	1.62	0.11	Matchbook	12/21/2016 12:09	1
12/26/2016 15:00	E3	Cheltenham vs Barnet	away	3.50	2.93	0.20	Pinnacle	12/21/2016 12:09	1
12/26/2016 15:00	E1	Barnsley vs Blackburn	away	3.50	3.12	0.12	Matchbook	12/21/2016 12:09	1
12/26/2016 15:00	E1	Wolves vs Bristol City	away	3.26	2.96	0.10	Matchbook	12/21/2016 12:09	1
12/26/2016 15:00	E3	Stevenage vs Cambridge Utd	away	3.02	2.24	0.35	Matchbook	12/21/2016 12:09	1
12/26/2016 15:00	E3	Notts County vs Doncaster	away	2.01	1.82	0.10	Pinnacle	12/21/2016 12:09	1
12/26/2016 15:00	E1	Huddersfield vs Nottingham Forest	away	5.19	3.87	0.34	Pinnacle	12/21/2016 12:09	1
12/26/2016 15:00	E3	Plymouth vs Wycombe	away	3.81	3.17	0.20	Pinnacle	12/21/2016 12:09	1
12/26/2016 15:00	SC3	Forfar Athletic vs Clyde	draw or away	2.12	1.90	0.12	Marathon	12/21/2016 12:09	1
12/26/2016 15:00	SC2	Peterhead vs Stenhousemuir	draw or away	2.39	2.05	0.17	Pinnacle	12/21/2016 12:09	1
12/26/2016 15:00	E0	Manchester Utd vs Sunderland	away +1.5	2.37	2.12	0.12	Pinnacle	12/21/2016 12:09	1

 

 

Edited December 21, 2016 by allen29

[Heatkiger]

Where do you get your Expected Goals data from?

[allen29]

Not the best period recently, but the more conservative bets are doing fine.

Bankroll

Latest selection: -5.25 from 37 bets

Overall: +55.87 from 712 bets (Yield: +7.85%)

Next selections:

Date	League	Match	Side	Bmk.odds	My.odds	Value	Bookmaker	Timestamp
12/27/2016 15:00	SC0	Aberdeen vs Hamilton	away +1.5	1.85	1.69	0.09	Marathon	12/27/2016 11:07
12/28/2016 8:50	AUS	Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners	away +1.5	2.31	2.08	0.11	Pinnacle	12/27/2016 11:07
12/28/2016 19:45	SC0	St. Johnstone vs Rangers	home	4.10	3.49	0.17	Matchbook	12/27/2016 11:07
12/28/2016 19:45	E0	Southampton vs Tottenham	home	2.97	2.58	0.15	Matchbook	12/27/2016 11:07
12/28/2016 19:45	SC0	Partick Thistle vs Dundee	away	4.00	3.12	0.28	Matchbook	12/27/2016 11:07
12/30/2016 9:50	AUS	Sydney FC vs Brisbane Roar	away	5.07	3.26	0.56	Pinnacle	12/27/2016 11:07
12/30/2016 19:45	E2	Millwall vs Gillingham	home	1.85	1.65	0.12	Marathon	12/27/2016 11:07
12/30/2016 19:45	E2	Rochdale vs Shrewsbury	home	1.67	1.47	0.14	Marathon	12/27/2016 11:07
12/30/2016 19:45	E2	Port Vale vs Chesterfield	away	3.62	2.83	0.28	Marathon	12/27/2016 11:07
12/30/2016 20:45	E3	Hartlepool vs Morecambe	away	3.75	3.32	0.13	Marathon	12/27/2016 11:07
12/31/2016 12:30	SC1	Falkirk vs Hibernian	home	3.90	3.39	0.15	Marathon	12/27/2016 11:07
12/31/2016 13:00	E2	Southend vs Charlton	home	2.50	2.04	0.22	Marathon	12/27/2016 11:07
12/31/2016 13:15	SC0	Rangers vs Celtic	home	4.20	3.51	0.20	Marathon	12/27/2016 11:07
12/31/2016 14:00	SC3	Stirling vs Cowdenbeath	away	3.45	2.94	0.17	Marathon	12/27/2016 11:07
12/31/2016 15:00	E2	Bristol Rovers vs AFC Wimbledon	home	2.30	1.97	0.17	Marathon	12/27/2016 11:07
12/31/2016 15:00	E2	Fleetwood vs Oldham	home	2.00	1.76	0.13	Marathon	12/27/2016 11:07
12/31/2016 15:00	E0	Leicester City vs West Ham	home	2.20	1.95	0.13	Matchbook	12/27/2016 11:07
12/31/2016 15:00	E1	Wolves vs QPR	away	4.35	3.57	0.22	Marathon	12/27/2016 11:07
12/31/2016 15:00	E1	Preston vs Sheffield Wednesday	away	2.75	2.26	0.22	Marathon	12/27/2016 11:07
12/31/2016 15:00	E0	Manchester Utd vs Middlesbrough	away +1.5	2.08	1.87	0.11	Pinnacle	12/27/2016 11:07
12/31/2016 15:00	E0	Chelsea vs Stoke City	away +1.5	2.13	1.93	0.10	Marathon	12/27/2016 11:07
12/31/2016 16:00	E3	Grimsby vs Blackpool	home	3.18	2.84	0.12	Marathon	12/27/2016 11:07
12/31/2016 16:00	E3	Stevenage vs Colchester	away	3.14	2.70	0.16	Marathon	12/27/2016 11:07
12/31/2016 16:00	E3	Newport vs Exeter	away	2.80	2.30	0.22	Marathon	12/27/2016 11:07
12/31/2016 16:00	E3	Luton vs Barnet	draw or away	2.25	1.95	0.16	bet365	12/27/2016 11:07
12/31/2016 17:30	E0	Liverpool vs Manchester City	home	2.50	2.17	0.15	Marathon	12/27/2016 11:07
1/1/2017 7:35	AUS	Wellington Phoenix FC vs Adelaide United	away	3.10	2.55	0.21	Marathon	12/27/2016 11:07
1/2/2017 15:00	SC3	Elgin City vs Forfar Athletic	home	2.40	2.17	0.11	Marathon	12/27/2016 11:07
1/2/2017 15:00	SC1	Raith Rovers vs Dunfermline	away	3.60	2.86	0.26	Marathon	12/27/2016 11:07

@Heatkiger: It's from opta clasic data feed text commentary. Some sites that display this are: bbc, espn, onefootball. After this, I use some text rules and regex to extract information from text such as the type of event, team, location, body part, assist method, number of players on the pitch etc. Using the shooting events I have built my expected goals model. Now, for every new game, I can extract the shooting events and apply the model, get expected goal value for each shot, then sum them up for each game and each team.

[Heatkiger]

14 hours ago, allen29 said:

It's from opta clasic data feed text commentary. Some sites that display this are: bbc, espn, onefootball. After this, I use some text rules and regex to extract information from text such as the type of event, team, location, body part, assist method, number of players on the pitch etc. Using the shooting events I have built my expected goals model. Now, for every new game, I can extract the shooting events and apply the model, get expected goal value for each shot, then sum them up for each game and each team.

It must have required some serious programming effort to get this scraping right. I myself have finally managed to automate scraping of simpler statistics (goals, shots and shots on target). How would you compare the statistical significance of these three compared to your xG model? I'm asking because I'm considering investing some time in the summer in order to achieve the same data gathering as you have.

Edited December 28, 2016 by Heatkiger

[allen29]

Finally some profit.

Bankroll

Latest selection: +3.69 from 27 bets

Overall: +59.56 from 739 bets (Yield: +8.06%)

Next selections:

Date	League	Match	Side	Bmk.odds	My.odds	Value	Bookmaker	Timestamp	Stake
1/2/2017 15:00	SC3	Elgin City vs Forfar Athletic	home	2.40	2.17	0.11	Marathon	12/27/2016 11:07	1
1/2/2017 15:00	SC1	Raith Rovers vs Dunfermline	away	3.60	2.86	0.26	Marathon	12/27/2016 11:07	1
1/2/2017 15:00	E3	Exeter vs Leyton Orient	away	4.20	3.52	0.19	Matchbook	1/2/2017 11:04	1
1/2/2017 15:00	E2	Gillingham vs Oxford United	away	2.51	2.25	0.12	Marathon	1/2/2017 11:04	1
1/2/2017 15:00	E0	Everton vs Southampton	away	3.62	2.79	0.30	Matchbook	1/2/2017 11:04	1
1/2/2017 15:00	E0	Sunderland vs Liverpool	home +1.5	1.92	1.73	0.11	Marathon	1/2/2017 11:04	1
1/2/2017 15:00	E0	Leeds vs Rotherham	draw or away	2.87	2.42	0.19	Marathon	1/2/2017 11:04	1
1/2/2017 17:15	E0	West Ham vs Manchester Utd	draw or away	2.66	1.97	0.35	Pinnacle	1/2/2017 11:04	1
1/3/2017 20:00	E0	Crystal Palace vs Swansea	draw or away	2.10	1.87	0.12	Pinnacle	1/2/2017 11:04	1
1/3/2017 20:00	E0	Stoke City vs Watford	draw or away	2.16	1.90	0.14	Matchbook	1/2/2017 11:04	1
1/5/2017 10:00	AUS	Perth Glory vs Wellington Phoenix FC	home	2.25	1.95	0.15	Marathon	1/2/2017 11:04	1
1/6/2017 8:50	AUS	Melbourne City FC vs Western Sydney Wanderers	away	4.55	3.60	0.26	Marathon	1/2/2017 11:04	1
1/6/2017 16:00	SP1	Almeria vs Getafe	home	2.78	2.48	0.12	Marathon	1/2/2017 11:04	1

@Heatkiger There are several ways to compare the the added benefit due to the the new stats added. For me, they add benefit if they have a better predictive power. For expected goals, or expected points or wins you can do the following:

-Build two models (I would chose something simple, like logistic regression for this task): one using widely available stats (like Goals, Goals Ratio, % of Wins, Points per game) and the other one using the stats you're interested in (Expected Goals, Expected Points..etc). You can use season averages of these stats or a rolling window of past x games. Then evaluate the accuracy of these models in predicting the result you're interested and compare the results. 

-Build a single model using a combination of the simple and more advanced metrics. For example a logistic regression containing goals for, expected goals for, goals against, expected goals against. Then compare the p-values in the regression output and see for which metrics the p-values are smaller.

-If you're interested in evaluating each metric by itself, you can take a full season and divide it into 2 parts. Then compute averages for the metrics you're interested in for each team in both halves. Finally, measure the correlation between the metric in the first half and the same metric in the second half. A higher correlation indicates a more predictive metric. I would compare very similar metrics with this method, like: goals vs expected goals, points vs expected points. 

-If you're using a more complex machine learning algorithm, most models and their packages come with a feature selection algorithm that tries to evaluate the performance of each predictor. You can then inspect the output of the model to see which are the most important predictors. I would try more than 1 model and the compare what each model sees as important predictors.

[allen29]

Bankroll

Latest selections: -0.62 from 13 bets (correction: West Ham vs Manchester Utd was intended to be a home or draw bet, there was no odds like that on draw or away, of course)

Overall: +59.09 from 752 bets (Yield: +7.86%)

Next selections:

Date	League	Match	Side	Bmk.odds	My.odds	Value	Bookmaker	Timestamp	Stake
1/14/2017 8:50	AUS	Sydney FC vs Western Sydney Wanderers	draw or away	2.40	2.00	0.20	Marathon	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/14/2017 10:30	TUR	Kardemir Karabuk vs Akhisar Belediyespor	home	2.50	2.15	0.16	Matchbook	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/14/2017 13:00	E3	Notts County vs Mansfield	home	3.31	2.86	0.16	Pinnacle	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/14/2017 13:00	TUR	Istanbul Basaksehir vs Kayserispor	draw or away	2.90	2.57	0.13	Pinnacle	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/14/2017 15:00	E3	Cambridge Utd vs Blackpool	home	2.73	2.40	0.14	Matchbook	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/14/2017 15:00	E0	West Ham vs Crystal Palace	home	2.47	2.09	0.18	Pinnacle	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/14/2017 15:00	E1	Sheffield Wednesday vs Huddersfield	home	2.25	1.94	0.16	bet365	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/14/2017 15:00	E0	Watford vs Middlesbrough	home	2.59	2.32	0.12	Pinnacle	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/14/2017 15:00	E2	Bury vs Peterborough	home	3.84	3.43	0.12	Matchbook	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/14/2017 15:00	E3	Plymouth vs Stevenage	home	2.08	1.85	0.13	Matchbook	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/14/2017 15:00	SC1	Falkirk vs Ayr United	draw or away	2.24	2.05	0.09	Marathon	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/14/2017 16:00	TUR	Konyaspor vs Galatasaray	away	2.88	2.48	0.16	Matchbook	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/14/2017 17:00	I1	Crotone vs Bologna	home	3.08	2.56	0.20	Matchbook	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/14/2017 17:30	NED	sc Heerenveen vs ADO Den Haag	draw or away	2.78	2.01	0.38	Pinnacle	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/14/2017 19:00	F1	Stade Rennes vs Paris Saint-Germain	home or draw	2.71	2.33	0.16	Pinnacle	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/15/2017 6:00	AUS	Newcastle Jets vs Perth Glory	away	3.02	2.71	0.11	Matchbook	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/15/2017 13:30	NED	Vitesse vs FC Twente	home	2.10	1.88	0.12	Matchbook	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/15/2017 13:30	NED	PEC Zwolle vs Ajax	home +1.5	1.93	1.77	0.09	Marathon	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/15/2017 14:00	I1	Sampdoria vs Empoli	draw or away	2.21	1.98	0.11	Pinnacle	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/15/2017 15:45	NED	Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen	draw or away	2.07	1.83	0.13	Pinnacle	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/16/2017 19:45	I1	Torino vs AC Milan	away	3.32	2.61	0.27	Pinnacle	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/17/2017 6:45	AUS	Wellington Phoenix FC vs Melbourne Victory	away	2.42	2.14	0.13	Pinnacle	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/20/2017 8:50	AUS	Sydney FC vs Adelaide United	draw or away	2.80	2.17	0.29	bet365	1/13/2017 22:26	1

[allen29]

Bankroll

Latest selections: +5.54 pts from 22 bets

Overall: +64.63 pts from 774 bets (Yield: +8.35%)

Next selections:

Date	League	Match	Side	Bmk.odds	My.odds	Value	Bookmaker	Timestamp	Stake
1/20/2017 8:50	AUS	Sydney FC vs Adelaide United	draw or away	2.56	2.18	0.18	Pinnacle	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/20/2017 19:00	F2	Sochaux vs Clermont	home	2.21	1.98	0.11	Pinnacle	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/20/2017 19:00	F2	Laval vs Troyes	away	3.32	2.81	0.18	Pinnacle	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/20/2017 19:00	NED	FC Twente vs Heracles	draw or away	2.24	2.04	0.10	Pinnacle	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/20/2017 19:45	E2	Port Vale vs Bury	home	2.63	2.37	0.11	Pinnacle	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/21/2017 12:00	SP1	Espanyol vs Granada	draw or away	2.55	2.30	0.11	Pinnacle	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/21/2017 14:00	F2	Lens vs Nimes	draw or away	2.22	2.06	0.08	Pinnacle	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/21/2017 14:30	D1	SV Darmstadt 98 vs Borussia Monchengladbach	home or draw	2.01	1.88	0.07	Matchbook	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/21/2017 14:30	D1	VfL Wolfsburg vs Hamburg SV	away	4.41	3.83	0.15	Pinnacle	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/21/2017 14:30	D1	Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund	home or draw	2.61	2.32	0.13	Pinnacle	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/21/2017 15:00	SC3	Edinburgh City vs Forfar Athletic	home	4.50	3.65	0.23	Marathon	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/21/2017 15:00	E2	Bradford vs Millwall	home	2.36	2.08	0.13	Pinnacle	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/21/2017 15:00	E2	MK Dons vs Northampton	home	2.06	1.82	0.13	Pinnacle	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/21/2017 15:00	E3	Hartlepool vs Stevenage	home	3.22	2.62	0.23	Pinnacle	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/21/2017 15:00	E1	Blackburn vs Birmingham	away	3.27	2.89	0.13	Pinnacle	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/21/2017 15:00	E1	Wigan vs Brentford	away	2.95	2.65	0.11	Pinnacle	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/21/2017 15:00	E1	Nottingham Forest vs Bristol City	away	2.80	2.51	0.12	Pinnacle	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/21/2017 15:00	E2	Walsall vs Bristol Rovers	away	2.72	2.14	0.27	Pinnacle	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/21/2017 15:00	E1	Cardiff vs Burton Albion	away	4.82	3.96	0.22	Pinnacle	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/21/2017 15:00	SC3	Montrose vs Cowdenbeath	away	3.00	2.52	0.19	bet365	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/21/2017 15:00	E2	Coventry vs Fleetwood	away	2.74	2.46	0.11	Pinnacle	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/21/2017 15:00	E3	Leyton Orient vs Morecambe	away	3.72	3.35	0.11	Pinnacle	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/21/2017 15:00	E0	Bournemouth vs Watford	draw or away	2.12	1.97	0.08	Matchbook	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/21/2017 15:00	E0	Middlesbrough vs West Ham	away	3.33	2.97	0.12	Pinnacle	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/21/2017 15:00	E0	Stoke City vs Manchester Utd	home or draw	2.48	2.05	0.21	Pinnacle	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/21/2017 15:00	E0	West Brom vs Sunderland	draw or away	2.28	2.04	0.12	Pinnacle	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/21/2017 17:30	E1	Barnsley vs Leeds	home	3.37	3.05	0.11	Pinnacle	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/21/2017 19:00	F1	Bastia vs Nice	home	3.47	2.90	0.20	Pinnacle	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/21/2017 19:00	F1	Guingamp vs Stade Rennes	home	2.44	2.18	0.12	Matchbook	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/21/2017 19:00	F1	Bordeaux vs Toulouse	away	3.96	3.47	0.14	Matchbook	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/22/2017 11:30	NED	FC Utrecht vs Ajax	home or draw	2.18	1.91	0.14	Pinnacle	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/22/2017 15:00	I1	Bologna vs Torino	home	3.24	2.70	0.20	Marathon	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/22/2017 15:00	I1	Empoli vs Udinese	away	3.32	2.93	0.13	Marathon	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/22/2017 15:00	I1	Palermo vs Internazionale	home or draw	2.55	2.32	0.10	Pinnacle	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/22/2017 15:00	I1	Genoa vs Crotone	draw or away	2.58	2.35	0.10	Pinnacle	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/22/2017 15:15	SP1	Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid	home	4.28	2.90	0.48	Pinnacle	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/22/2017 16:30	D1	Mainz vs FC Cologne	home	2.61	2.34	0.12	Pinnacle	1/13/2017 22:26	1
1/22/2017 17:30	SP1	Real Betis vs Sporting Gijon	draw or away	2.29	2.03	0.13	Pinnacle	1/13/2017 22:26	1

[allen29]

More selections. In a big rush, didn't have time to include viz for these ones. 

Date	League	Match	Side	Bmk.odds	My.odds	Value	Bookmaker	Timestamp
1/21/2017 10:30	TUR	Akhisar Belediyespor vs Kayserispor	away	4.19	3.76	0.11	Pinnacle	1/18/2017 4:11
1/21/2017 15:00	E1	Norwich City vs Wolves	home	2.12	1.92	0.11	Pinnacle	1/18/2017 4:11
1/21/2017 16:00	TUR	Kardemir Karabuk vs Galatasaray	home or draw	1.87	1.69	0.11	Pinnacle	1/18/2017 4:11
1/21/2017 16:00	TUR	Bursaspor vs Adanaspor	draw or away	2.75	2.29	0.20	bet365	1/18/2017 4:11
1/21/2017 19:00	SP2	UCAM Murcia vs Real Zaragoza	home	2.48	2.21	0.12	Marathon	1/18/2017 4:11
1/22/2017 11:00	SP1	Osasuna vs Sevilla	home or draw	2.71	2.41	0.12	Pinnacle	1/18/2017 4:11
1/22/2017 13:00	TUR	Kasimpasa S.K. vs Trabzonspor	home	2.92	2.17	0.35	Marathon	1/18/2017 4:11
1/23/2017 17:00	TUR	Alanyaspor vs Besiktas	home or draw	2.75	2.11	0.30	Pinnacle	1/18/2017 4:11
1/23/2017 19:45	FRA	Brest vs Red Star	draw or away	2.73	2.13	0.28	Marathon	1/18/2017 4:11

 

 

[allen29]

Bankroll

Latest selections: -2.39 pts from 46 bets

Overall: +62.24 pts from 820 bets (Yield: +7.63%)

 

Edited January 24, 2017 by allen29

[allen29]

I've been thinking lately about this and finally, I've decided to share a part of the data I've been using. It is available here: https://www.kaggle.com/secareanualin/football-events. 

 

 

[allen29]

Next games:

Date	League	Match	Side	Bmk.odds	My.odds	Value	Bookmaker	Timestamp
1/27/2017 18:30	D2	Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum	away	4.45	3.56	0.25	Marathon	1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/27/2017 19:00	F2	Nimes vs Strasbourg	home	2.80	2.46	0.14	Matchbook	1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/27/2017 19:00	SP2	Elche vs Girona	away	2.59	2.33	0.11	Pinnacle	1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/27/2017 19:00	NED	Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam	away	4.14	3.43	0.21	Pinnacle	1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/27/2017 19:45	SP1	Osasuna vs Malaga	home	3.18	2.75	0.16	Matchbook	1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/28/2017 12:00	SP1	Villarreal vs Granada	away +1.5	1.83	1.68	0.09	Pinnacle	1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/28/2017 12:30	E2	Bristol Rovers vs Swindon	home	1.78	1.59	0.12	Matchbook	1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/28/2017 13:00	D2	FC Wurzburger Kickers vs TSV Eintracht Braunschweig	home	2.73	2.43	0.12	Matchbook	1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/28/2017 14:00	I1	Cagliari vs Bologna	home	2.57	2.34	0.10	Marathon	1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/28/2017 14:00	I1	Fiorentina vs Genoa	draw or away	2.39	2.04	0.17	Pinnacle	1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/28/2017 14:30	D1	RB Leipzig vs TSG Hoffenheim	home	1.77	1.56	0.13	Pinnacle	1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/28/2017 15:00	SC2	Stenhousemuir vs Airdrieonians	home	3.53	3.08	0.15	Pinnacle	1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/28/2017 15:00	SC1	Dunfermline vs Dundee United	home	3.32	2.91	0.14	Pinnacle	1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/28/2017 15:00	E2	Fleetwood vs Southend	home	2.26	2.03	0.12	Pinnacle	1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/28/2017 15:00	SC2	Albion Rovers vs Alloa	away	2.28	2.05	0.11	Marathon	1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/28/2017 15:00	E1	QPR vs Burton Albion	away	3.74	2.79	0.34	Matchbook	1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/28/2017 15:00	E1	Reading vs Cardiff	away	3.50	3.07	0.14	Matchbook	1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/28/2017 15:00	E3	Notts County vs Crawley Town	away	3.26	2.54	0.28	Matchbook	1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/28/2017 15:00	E3	Stevenage vs Grimsby	away	3.04	2.56	0.19	Pinnacle	1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/28/2017 15:00	E3	Newport vs Hartlepool	away	3.10	2.78	0.12	Pinnacle	1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/28/2017 15:00	E1	Preston vs Ipswich	away	4.49	3.56	0.26	Pinnacle	1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/28/2017 15:00	SC2	Peterhead vs Queen's Park	away	4.06	2.98	0.36	Pinnacle	1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/28/2017 15:00	E2	Bury vs Walsall	away	3.06	2.72	0.12	Matchbook	1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/28/2017 15:00	SC1	Queen of the South vs Hibernian	home or draw	2.49	2.06	0.21	Marathon	1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/28/2017 15:00	SC2	Livingston vs Brechin	draw or away	2.72	2.45	0.11	Pinnacle	1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/28/2017 15:15	SP1	Alaves vs Atletico Madrid	home or draw	2.45	2.17	0.13	Pinnacle	1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/28/2017 17:00	SP2	Mirandes vs Reus Deportiu	away	3.10	2.79	0.11	Marathon	1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/28/2017 18:45	NED	Roda JC vs Excelsior	away	3.82	3.11	0.23	Matchbook	1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/28/2017 20:00	F1	Toulouse vs St Etienne	home	2.56	2.31	0.11	Pinnacle	1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/29/2017 13:00	TUR	Trabzonspor vs Gaziantepspor	draw or away	2.76	2.35	0.17	Pinnacle	1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/29/2017 13:30	D2	Nurnberg vs Dresden	home	2.52	2.12	0.19	Pinnacle	1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/29/2017 14:00	I1	Sassuolo vs Juventus	home or draw	2.78	2.29	0.22	Pinnacle	1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/29/2017 14:30	D1	SC Freiburg vs Hertha Berlin	home	2.52	2.24	0.13	Pinnacle	1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/29/2017 17:30	SP1	Athletic Bilbao vs Sporting Gijon	draw or away	3.45	2.93	0.18	Marathon	1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/30/2017 17:00	TUR	Adanaspor vs Kasimpasa S.K.	away	2.83	2.19	0.29	Marathon	1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/31/2017 19:45	E0	Middlesbrough vs West Brom	home	2.64	2.28	0.16	Pinnacle	1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/31/2017 19:45	E0	Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace	away	3.96	3.52	0.12	Matchbook	1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/31/2017 19:45	E0	Swansea vs Southampton	away	2.38	1.94	0.23	Marathon	1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/31/2017 19:45	E0	Sunderland vs Tottenham	home or draw	3.40	2.31	0.47	bet365	1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM

 

[allen29]

Bakroll

Terrible results. 

Latest selections: -12.96 pts from 39 bets

Overall: +49.28 pts from 859 bets (Yield: +5.74%)

[allen29]

Next selections:

Date	League	Match	Side	Bmk.odds	My.odds	Value	Bookmaker	Timestamp
2/4/2017 12:00	D2	FC Heidenheim 1846 vs Nurnberg	away	3.79	3.04	0.25	Matchbook	2/4/2017 10:33
2/4/2017 12:30	E0	Chelsea vs Arsenal	draw or away	1.93	1.75	0.10	Pinnacle	2/4/2017 10:33
2/4/2017 14:00	F2	Brest vs Sochaux	away	3.92	3.54	0.11	Matchbook	2/4/2017 10:33
2/4/2017 15:00	SC2	Alloa vs Livingston	home	3.25	2.84	0.14	Marathon	2/4/2017 10:33
2/4/2017 15:00	E3	Grimsby vs Luton	home	3.20	2.86	0.12	Matchbook	2/4/2017 10:33
2/4/2017 15:00	E3	Barnet vs Mansfield	home	2.88	2.52	0.14	Pinnacle	2/4/2017 10:33
2/4/2017 15:00	E1	Cardiff vs Norwich City	home	3.01	2.70	0.11	Matchbook	2/4/2017 10:33
2/4/2017 15:00	E3	Wycombe vs Portsmouth	home	3.69	3.32	0.11	Pinnacle	2/4/2017 10:33
2/4/2017 15:00	E1	Barnsley vs Preston	home	2.86	2.53	0.13	Matchbook	2/4/2017 10:33
2/4/2017 15:00	E1	Ipswich vs Reading	home	3.17	2.57	0.23	Pinnacle	2/4/2017 10:33
2/4/2017 15:00	E0	West Brom vs Stoke City	home	2.39	2.14	0.12	Pinnacle	2/4/2017 10:33
2/4/2017 15:00	E1	Burton Albion vs Wolves	home	3.50	2.95	0.19	Pinnacle	2/4/2017 10:33
2/4/2017 15:00	E3	Hartlepool vs Yeovil	home	3.00	2.71	0.11	Pinnacle	2/4/2017 10:33
2/4/2017 15:00	SC3	Edinburgh City vs Clyde	away	2.65	2.19	0.21	Pinnacle	2/4/2017 10:33
2/4/2017 15:00	E2	Charlton vs Fleetwood	away	3.24	2.95	0.10	Pinnacle	2/4/2017 10:33
2/4/2017 15:00	SC0	Hamilton vs Kilmarnock	away	3.52	3.23	0.09	Matchbook	2/4/2017 10:33
2/4/2017 15:00	E3	Cambridge Utd vs Plymouth	away	3.14	2.69	0.17	Pinnacle	2/4/2017 10:33
2/4/2017 15:00	E0	Everton vs Bournemouth	draw or away	2.35	2.11	0.11	Pinnacle	2/4/2017 10:33
2/4/2017 15:00	E0	Crystal Palace vs Sunderland	draw or away	2.32	2.08	0.11	Pinnacle	2/4/2017 10:33
2/4/2017 15:30	D1	FC Cologne vs VfL Wolfsburg	away	4.00	3.45	0.16	Matchbook	2/4/2017 10:33
2/4/2017 16:00	F1	AS Monaco vs Nice	draw or away	2.57	2.23	0.15	Pinnacle	2/4/2017 10:33
2/4/2017 17:30	SP1	Granada vs Las Palmas	home	3.10	2.52	0.23	Marathon	2/4/2017 10:33
2/4/2017 17:30	D1	Borussia Dortmund vs RB Leipzig	draw or away	2.53	2.29	0.11	Pinnacle	2/4/2017 10:33
2/4/2017 18:45	NED	AZ vs PSV Eindhoven	home	4.52	3.83	0.18	Pinnacle	2/4/2017 10:33
2/4/2017 19:00	F1	Dijon FCO vs Paris Saint-Germain	home or draw	3.90	2.94	0.32	bet365	2/4/2017 10:33
2/4/2017 19:45	I1	Bologna vs Napoli	home or draw	2.76	2.46	0.12	Pinnacle	2/4/2017 10:33
2/4/2017 19:45	NED	FC Groningen vs Excelsior	draw or away	2.59	2.27	0.14	Pinnacle	2/4/2017 10:33
2/5/2017 11:00	SP1	Sevilla vs Villarreal	draw or away	2.38	2.00	0.19	Pinnacle	2/4/2017 10:33
2/5/2017 12:00	E2	Swindon vs Oxford United	home	4.05	3.66	0.11	Pinnacle	2/4/2017 10:33
2/5/2017 14:00	I1	Empoli vs Torino	home	3.79	3.30	0.15	Pinnacle	2/4/2017 10:33
2/5/2017 14:00	I1	US Pescara vs Lazio	home or draw	2.55	1.95	0.31	Pinnacle	2/4/2017 10:33
2/5/2017 14:00	I1	Atalanta vs Cagliari	draw or away	2.99	2.63	0.14	Pinnacle	2/4/2017 10:33
2/5/2017 16:00	F1	Nantes vs AS Nancy Lorraine	away	4.75	3.90	0.22	Pinnacle	2/4/2017 10:33
2/5/2017 16:00	E0	Leicester City vs Manchester Utd	home or draw	2.33	2.15	0.08	Pinnacle	2/4/2017 10:33
2/5/2017 16:30	D1	Eintracht Frankfurt vs SV Darmstadt 98	draw or away	2.49	2.18	0.14	Pinnacle	2/4/2017 10:33
2/5/2017 17:00	SP2	Reus Deportiu vs Getafe	home	2.87	2.44	0.18	Matchbook	2/4/2017 10:33
2/5/2017 17:00	I1	Palermo vs Crotone	away	3.45	2.53	0.36	Marathon	2/4/2017 10:33
2/5/2017 17:30	SP1	Real Sociedad vs Osasuna	away +1.5	1.98	1.72	0.15	Marathon	2/4/2017 10:33
2/5/2017 19:00	SP2	Girona vs Real Valladolid	home	2.20	1.84	0.20	Matchbook	2/4/2017 10:33
2/6/2017 19:45	SP1	Sporting Gijon vs Alaves	away	3.84	3.46	0.11	Matchbook	2/4/2017 10:33
2/7/2017 18:00	F1	Montpellier vs AS Monaco	home or draw	2.42	1.77	0.36	Marathon	2/4/2017 10:33
2/7/2017 19:45	I1	AS Roma vs Fiorentina	home	1.67	1.48	0.13	Marathon	2/4/2017 10:33