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Hi I present to you my predictions from my software. There are 3 types predictions Over 1.5, Over 2.5, & Home Wins I hope these to be useful to anyone. Any questions I do my best to reply. good luck 28/10/2018 Predictions Qualifying Match forecast for 28/10/2018 (All matches are Over 1.5 match goals) Danish SAS-Ligaen Hobro IK v Vejle Italy Serie A Genoa v Udinese Spanish Segunda Division Extremadura UD v Albacete Greek Super League Panetolikos v Asteras Tripolis Spanish Primera Division Alavés v Villarreal Spanish Segunda Division Elche v Real Zaragoza Qualifying Match forecast for 28/10/2018 (All matches are Over 2.5 match goals) Dutch Eredivisie Willem II v FC Utrecht Belgian Jupiler League Standard Liege v Genk Swiss Raiffeisen Super League Xamax v FC Luzern Swiss Raiffeisen Super League St Gallen v FC Zurich Swiss Raiffeisen Super League FC Lugano v Thun Spanish Primera Division Barcelona v Real Madrid Dutch Eredivisie AZ v Heerenveen Swedish Allsvenskan IFK Norrkoping v Östersunds FK Norwegian Tippeligaen Odd BK v Tromso Belgian Jupiler League Eupen v Anderlecht German Bundesliga Werder Bremen v Bayer Leverkusen French Ligue 1 Marseille v Paris Saint-Germain Qualifying Match forecast for 28/10/2018 (All matches are Home Wins) Dutch Eredivisie Ajax v Feyenoord Danish SAS-Ligaen FC Copenhagen v AGF Aarhus Turkey Super Lig Fenerbahce v Ankaragucu Portuguese Liga FC Porto v Feirense Greek Super League AEK Athens v Aris Salonika Spanish Primera Division Sevilla FC v SD Huesca Portuguese Liga Sporting CP v Boavista
Hello, I have been playing around with a new prediction model for all the Leagues that BBC posts match reports on (all professional English and Scottish Leagues). The number of variables you can derive from the text commentary is quite good, especially for a lower leagues. It is still early phase, and I'm still tweaking some things. The final goal is to have a fully automated workflow that: 1) scrapes every new game from BBC, derives events from text (Shots, Bookings, Goals, Substitutions, Cards, Offside), 2) Aggregates the statistics for each game and applies Expected Goals (based on each individual shot, what is the probability that it should have been a goal) and Expected outcome models (based on the aggregated game statistics, what should have been the result). 4) Computes historical metrics for each team from game statistics 5) Scrapes fixtures and odds from oddsportal (multiple bookmakers) and appends them to a database 6) Applies the prediction model, suggest recommendations and creates visualization. Currently I have only an Outcome model (1X2) but will also attempt including an Over/Under model and BTS model. 7) Posts predictions on a webpage (this is for the future, there is still a lot of work to be done) 8)Keeps track of Bankroll I'm at about 95% of that (excluding 7), but I was hurrying because there are plenty of games today. Purpose: I will monitor the results from the predictions here. From time to time may also be also posting visualizations and explanatory analysis of games. I also have Offensive and Defensive metrics for each team, so maybe they can tell a nice story. Results: From cross-validation results looked decent, (about 10% of games ended with a loss, median yield was about 5.5%) but I'll not get to excited because in the past I had the experience with a model that good results with cross-validation but did awful when using it. Odds, bookmakers: Currently I am scraping best odds from oddsportal, but in practice I will limit myself to: Pinnacle,Marathon,Matchbook Bet selection: My threshold for recommending a bet is Bookmaker odd/My odd - 1 > 0.125. Only these bets are posted. But I can post all of them, but I need a more convenient solution because the images would become to large. Maybe I'll create an album for every league and embed the thumbnails here. First round: Still working on visualizations, they were done in a hurry, quality and size needs to be optimized. Also, please suggest others ways of displaying the data if you have any ideas. Does anyone knows how can I embed a table in the forum posts? I think it is not practical to posts tables as screen captures.
UFC 214 PPV Headliner (Cormier vs Jones) Jones to beat Cormier : 2/5 (Betstars) Under 4.5 Rounds : 6/4 (Unibet & 32Red) Other Main Card Picks Woodley to beat Maia : 7/4 (Skybet) Woodley by TKO/KO/DQ : Evens (Betfair) Justino by Points : 10/1 (Betfred) Lawler to beat Cerrone : 20/31 (Coral) Lawler by KO/TKO/DQ : 9/4 (Coral) Manuwa to beat Volkan : 4/7 (Coral) Prelim Pick's Sterling to beat Barao : 10/11 (Betfred) Sterling to win by Decision or Technical Decision : 7/4 (Betfred) Knight to beat Lamas via Submission : 7/1 (Paddy Power & Skybet) Kattar to beat Fili : 3/1 (Skybet , Coral , Ladbrokes) Kattar by Points : 17/2 (Paddy Power) Albu to beat Curran : 8/13 (Coral) Albu by Points :23/10 (Paddy Power) Brooks to beat Shelton : 4/6 (Bet365 & Unibet)
This weekend is International Fight Week for the UFC in Las Vegas , Here's my picks for the 1st of 2 cards this weekend Friday's TUF 25 Finale. TUF 25 Finale Headliner (Gaethje vs Johnson) Gaethje to Win - 7/5 (Bet365) Gaethje to Win by KO/TKO/DQ - 5/2 (Skybet) TUF 25 Finale (Taylor vs Lima) Lima to Win - 7/4 (Betfred) Other Main Card Picks Diakiese to Win - 10/27 (Will Hill) Theodorou to Win - 13/16 (Unibet) Prelim Pick's Ladd to Win - 5/6 (Betway) Hill to Win - 4/11 (Betvictor) Ishihara to Win - 4/11 (Will Hill)
Matchup Teams % Outcome Odds Cubs vs. Reds Cubs 63% 1.57 Reds 37% Astros vs. Rays Astros 52% 1.83 Rays 48% Braves vs. Phillies Braves 53% 1.80 Phillies 47% Red Sox vs. Orioles Red Sox 49% Orioles 51% 1.90 Yankees vs. Pirates Yankees 48% Pirates 52% 1.86 Indians vs. White Sox Indians 61% 1.52 White Sox 39% Tigers vs. Twins Tigers 54% 1.86 Twins 46% Cardinals vs. Brewers Cardinals 50% Brewers 50% Royals vs. Rangers Royals 36% Rangers 64% 1.57 Giants vs. Rockies Giants 52% 1.83 Rockies 48% Blue Jays vs. Angels Blue Jays 48% Angels 52% 2.05 Mariners vs. Athletics Mariners 44% Athletics 56% 1.76 Dodgers vs. D-backs Dodgers 56% 1.68 D-backs 44% Marlins vs. Padres Marlins 53% 1.83 Padres 47% Nationals vs. Mets Nationals 63% 1.64 Mets 37%