WORCESTER RACES: 15th JUNE 2005

[Aykay1]

Place all your thoughts on the upcoming feast of beer and gambling here....

[Aykay1]

Re: WORCESTER RACES: 15th JUNE 2005 Its too early to post any thoughts on the racecard as most races still have about 40-50 entries. In the meantime, i thought i'd post some course stats on trainers with a better than average record at Worcester. All 3 have declarations for Wednesdays racing. Firstly, Paul Nicholls. Its not an original choice i know, but the stats from the past 5 years show him as profitable to follow to level stakes: 2001-5: 12/40, 30% Strike Rate, +£29.90 to level £1 stakes 2005: 3/9, 33%, +9.50 to £1 stakes 2004: 0/2, 0%, -£2.00 to £1 stakes 2003: 4/15, 26%, +16.00 to £1 stakes 2002: 2/9, 22%, -3.70 to £1 stakes 2001: 3/5, 60%, +£10.10 to £1 stakes Mrs L Wadham doesnt run many but when she does they warrant respect. 2001-5: 5/15, 33% Strike Rate, +£58.90 to level £1 stakes 2005: no runners yet 2004: 2/6, 33%, +£10.40 to £1 stakes 2003: 1/5, 20%, -1.75 to £1 stakes 2002: 1/2, 50%, +49.00 to £1 stakes 2001: 1/2, 50%, +£1.25 to £1 stakes Another unoriginal choice but Martin Pipe has posted profits at Worcester for 3 of the last 4 seasons. Judging by the start he has made to this seasons racing at Worcester, he is due a winner there too. ;) 2001-5: 39/140, 27% Strike Rate, +£47.02 to level £1 stakes 2005: 0/4, 0%, -£4 to £1 stakes 2004: 9/31, 29%, +£50.00 to £1 stakes 2003: 7/37, 18%, -10.42 to £1 stakes 2002: 14/35, 40%, +9.57 to £1 stakes 2001: 9/33, 27%, +£2.67 to £1 stakes Finally, a trainer who i have never heard of but has started the season well and has had a couple of winners at Worcester is BJM Ryall. His record from 4 runners so far this season is 1st, 1st, 1st, 4th, with 2 of those winners at Worcester. He has one declared for Wednesday so it might be worth a look. Well thats a start anyway, just got to wait for the fields to be reduced before we can do anything else now :)

[Sir Puntalot]

Re: WORCESTER RACES: 15th JUNE 2005 Nice one AK. :clap

[ONEDUNME]

Re: WORCESTER RACES: 15th JUNE 2005 I forecast much drinking and a big pile of shite being talked:ok

[Aykay1]

Re: WORCESTER RACES: 15th JUNE 2005 If Onedunme can get away with making a prediction like that, then I am going to forecast that either Celtic or Rangers win the Scottish Premier League next season. :lol

[ONEDUNME]

Re: WORCESTER RACES: 15th JUNE 2005 Cheers AK:ok I'm off to betfair right now to check out the prices:lol

[bowles10]

Re: WORCESTER RACES: 15th JUNE 2005 I'll be too busy checking out the Ascot form but if i see anything interesting at Worcs, I'll post it the night before for you guys. Can't promise the 50/1 EW shot like today though!

[Carl]

Re: WORCESTER RACES: 15th JUNE 2005

2:20 16 run

PuntersLounge.com Betting Forum Novices' Claiming Hurdle (Class F) (4yo+) Winner £3,080.00

ATR 2m

No.	Form	Horse	Trainer		Wgt	Jockey	RPR
1	P5	Felix The Fox 6	N A Twiston-Davies	5	11-8	C Llewellyn	80
2	3-90	Meadow Hawk 17	Ian Williams	5	11-6b	D R Dennis	106
3	7-35	Sound Skin 21	A Ennis	7	11-4	M A Fitzgerald	90
4	/3-P	Hermano 10	A M Hales	8	11-0	B J Crowley	-
5		Magic Warrior (11F)	J C Fox	5	11-0	S Fox	-
6	2-33	Percipient 17	D R Gandolfo	7	10-12v	T Doyle	97
7	/PP-	Golly 371	D L Williams	9	10-10	D Crosse(3)	-
8	6P	Sooty From Mitcham 20	R H Alner	5	10-10	A Thornton	-
9		Buchanan Street (58F)	R Ford	4	10-9tp	J M Maguire	-
10	43-5	Hunter Pudding 30	C L Popham	5	10-7	Mr T Messenger(7)	92
11	-PP8	Pridewood Dove 10	R J Price	6	10-5	A O´Keeffe	63
12	0-0	Tiasfourth 10	A M Hales	4	10-4	James Davies	-
13	5-UP	Nimvara 29	Evan Williams	9	10-3	R Stephens(5)	93
14	9-04	Princess Pea 10	Mrs L Wadham	5	10-3	L Aspell	98
15	58-7	Replacement Pet 9	Mrs S D Williams	8	10-3tb	R Greene	87
16	F	Berry Racer 20	Mrs S D Williams	4	10-0	W Hutchinson	-
Betting Forecast: 3/1 Meadow Hawk, 6/1 Felix The Fox, Princess Pea, 13/2 Golly, Percipient, 8/1 Sound Skin, 10/1 Hunter Pudding, 20/1 Pridewood Dove, 25/1 Hermano, Nimvara, Tiasfourth, 33/1 Magic Warrior, Replacement Pet, Sooty From Mitcham, 50/1 Berry Racer, Buchanan Street,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Fairly desperate stuff and MEADOW HAWK will not find many easier opportunities to get off the mark, although he will need to do better than on his last two outings. Princess Pea and Felix The Fox are open to improvement and may pose most threat.[JN]

[Carl]

Re: WORCESTER RACES: 15th JUNE 2005

4:05 14 run

PuntersLounge.com Betting Forum Handicap Chase (Class D) (5yo+,0-120) Winner £5,499.00

ATR 2m4½f (2m4f110y)

No.	Form	Horse	Trainer		Wgt	Jockey	RPR
1	P-41	Bronzesmith 11	B J M Ryall	9	11-12	J Tizzard	131
2	P1-2	Croix De Guerre 32	P J Hobbs	5	11-10b	R Johnson	124
3	-123	Saafend Rocket 20	H D Daly	7	11-9	M Bradburne	128
4	3-01	Rheindross 30	C J Mann	10	11-9	N Fehily	127
5	3-11	Silence Reigns 26	P F Nicholls	11	11-7tb	R Walsh	140
6	/P9-	Colonel Bradley 360	Jonjo O´Neill	11	11-6	A P McCoy	-
7	P8-9	Heart Midoltian 34	M C Pipe	8	11-3tv	J E Moore	118
8	07-0	Deferlant 11	K Bell	8	11-2tp	M A Fitzgerald	124
9	-223	Galway Breeze 21	Mrs K Walton	10	11-0	R McGrath	131
10	8-23	Penthouse Minstrel 6	R J Hodges	11	10-13	Mr T J Dreaper(7)	127
11	3-33	Deep King 11	J W Mullins	10	10-13	R Young(3)	132
12	-014	Idealko 20	Dr P Pritchard	9	10-8	D R Dennis	129
13	79/7	Wave Rock 52	A W Carroll	10	10-7b	J Culloty	132
14	4-22	Xaipete 32	R C Guest	13	10-7	L McGrath(3)	138
Betting Forecast: 5/2 Silence Reigns, 11/2 Bronzesmith, 9/1 Galway Breeze, 10/1 Colonel Bradley, Deep King, 12/1 Croix De Guerre, Rheindross, Saafend Rocket, 14/1 Penthouse Minstrel, 16/1 Heart Midoltian, Idealko, Wave Rock, 20/1 Xaipete, 25/1 Deferlant,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Bronzesmith and Galway Breeze should run well, particularly if the ground remains on the lively side, but SILENCE REIGNS (nap) looks on an attractive mark given his recent exploits in hunter chases and could prove hard to beat if still on song.[JN]

[Carl]

Re: WORCESTER RACES: 15th JUNE 2005 SILENCE REIGNS looks a good bet? walsh on board

[Carl]

Re: WORCESTER RACES: 15th JUNE 2005

POSTDATA SELECTION: XAIPETE

20/1 :loon decent E/W?

[punter66]

Re: WORCESTER RACES: 15th JUNE 2005 Blue Hawk might be a good e.w bet in the 4.40. The trainer is local to the track (R.Dickin), its his only runner at the meeting and its the jockeys only ride at the meeting too. J.Pritchard may be claiming 7 but he is a well known and very good local jockey. Several jockey's have ridden Blue Hawk in recent outings but with Pritchard in the saddle the form reads, 1/14, 3/10, PU/13 and 4/9. First on my list for e.w chances anyway:ok

[Aykay1]

Re: WORCESTER RACES: 15th JUNE 2005 Good spot Punter. Id be slightly worried about the distance though, he seems to have run his best races over 2m as oppose to tomorrows trip of 2m 4f.

[punter66]

Re: WORCESTER RACES: 15th JUNE 2005 Yes the distance is the biggest question mark AK, thats enough to keep me to a small stake only.

[DeepBlueDevilFish]

Re: WORCESTER RACES: 15th JUNE 2005 Had a look through the card at Worcester tomorrow and have come up with some suggestions for some to watch. 2:20 Meadow Hawk looks the obvious choice here but I think he may well start off at too short a price for me in potentially a 16 runner race. If pushed I would actually suggest laying Meadow Hawk here but as that's not an easy option at the course I would have a 0.5 point E/W on Sound Skin as an interest bet if I was able to join you all there. I think Sound Skin will appreciate the drop back in distance and also shouldn't have any problem with the going. It's jumping is a bit suspect though but I'm sure this will help to boost it's price a bit which doesn't do any harm on an EW punt. If it goes round safely without making too many errors I wouldn't be surprised to see it there or there abouts. 2:55 Again another course interest only bet for me here. 0.5 point E/W on Good Man Again is my suggestion. Another horse who should appreciate a step back in distance and who may well take advantage if the likely top 2 in the market (Quick and After Me Boys) slip up. Jockey has a reasonable record at Worcester too. 3:30 Not Amused 1 point E/W. This is my NAP of the meeting and is the only horse I'll be backing for real back here from my PC. Like my first two suggestions I believe this horse will benefit from a step back in distance. I also think he'll like the going. Added to that the fact that he's trained by a trainer with a good record at Worcester (Ian Williams) and he has on board a jockey (DR Dennis) who generally does well at Worcester and things look quite rosy ( I also like the fact that Dennis hasn't had a Worcester winner so far this season - sounds odd but I think this suggests one is overdue :) ). This is in fact the same jockey / trainer combination for Meadow Hawk in the 2:20 but Not Amused isn't likely to start anywhere near as short a price and so represents much better value in my book. The only slight worry I have is that the blinkers aren't going to be on which seemed to help in his last race and this is why I'll be taking this horse EW. 4:05 0.5 point E/W Xaipete. Won't be backing this for real but I'd be on this if I was at the meeting. He's getting on a bit but this horse is a stayer and looks a likely good EW chance at a good price because of this. The jockey knows the horse very well too and will hopefully see him round safely with not too many errors. 4:40 0.5 point E/W Araglin. Another interest only bet I would suggest. Araglin shouldn't have too many problems with the going or distance and all his best performances have come with Fehily on board. Also off a mark he's performed well at in the past. Trainer also has a reasonable record at Worcester. 5:15 0.5 point E/W Flying Druid. Yet another interest only bet from me I'm afraid and I must admit that this one's a little bit of a punt in the dark as this horse is stepping up into unproven territory. However he's performed well in the past with Williams on board and I've got a feeling he may surprise a few here. ;) That's it - hope a few of these do something and maybe win a few bob for everyone. Sorry I couldn't come up with any "sure things" but I thought it best not to delude anyone by over hypeing horses and to try and give some honest chances for fancies that might go well. After all you'll need to save some money for the all night beer and Hold Em session. Have fun ! Shame I can't be there. :cheers :beer :beer

[ONEDUNME]

Re: WORCESTER RACES: 15th JUNE 2005 I'm on "Not Amused" as well DBDF, so you may want to think again before losing your money:(

[Aykay1]

Re: WORCESTER RACES: 15th JUNE 2005 Well theres only one that stands out for me so far - ill do somr more studying on the train tomorrow ;) 405 Worcester - Colonel Bradley Very indifferent recent form but he has seemingly been running over unsuitable trips. His record over 2m 4f is 3111, which is impressive. He hasnt run for a year but he has won 1st time out before. He has McCoy on board which is surely a bonus. 10/1 forecasted in the racing post.

[DeepBlueDevilFish]

Re: WORCESTER RACES: 15th JUNE 2005 :rollin Great minds think alike ODM :hope or more than likely it's a case of lemmings over the cliff ... :cry :cry

[ONEDUNME]

Re: WORCESTER RACES: 15th JUNE 2005 Yes, I think that's more like it. Good luck anyway (obviously:ok )

[Aykay1]

Re: WORCESTER RACES: 15th JUNE 2005 DBDF and ODM - I am also considering NOT AMUSED as i think the ground tomorrow (assuming it stays good/firm) will suit it no end. I was reading up on the stable form and R Ford has sent out 3 out of 3 winners over hurdles this season. He has a couple at bi prices tomorrow - BUCHANAN STREET in the opener and SAMSON DES GALAS in the last. Neither of them would ordinarily interest me but they may be worth a go at big prices?

[DeepBlueDevilFish]

Re: WORCESTER RACES: 15th JUNE 2005 Looks interesting AK1979. Like you say they'll both be big prices with perhaps Buchanan Street being the better option for a small e/w stake (as it's more of an unknown quantity).

[ONEDUNME]

Re: WORCESTER RACES: 15th JUNE 2005 I wish you two would fukk off:lol Buchanan Street is one of my each way shots for tomorrow. Looked at the price for a place on Betfair earlier but it was pants. Definitely worth an each way punt.:ok

[Aykay1]

Re: WORCESTER RACES: 15th JUNE 2005 :lol fukk the train, we'll be driving home in ferraris when these come in!!...... .....or more than likely hitchhiking :(

[ONEDUNME]

Re: WORCESTER RACES: 15th JUNE 2005 :cry

[bowles10]

Re: WORCESTER RACES: 15th JUNE 2005 blimey, just looked at the card & i havent got a clue what to advise you guys. maybe REVERSE SWING in the 3.30 looks to have a fav's chance at around 3/1. Have a great day & night anyway!!:ok

[BillyHills]

Re: WORCESTER RACES: 15th JUNE 2005 Looks a tricky card, a sporting bet in the first could be Pridewood Dove. Watched this closely last time and got a decent jockey on now. 20/1 f/c price in a very poor race. Good luck to all BH

[ONEDUNME]

Re: WORCESTER RACES: 15th JUNE 2005 Thanks Billy. The first race has me baffled. I'll get on your selection:ok

[Striker]

Re: WORCESTER RACES: 15th JUNE 2005 I like PERCIPIENT [2.30] Each/Way. Consistent [WON,13-2] GOOD MAN AGAIN [2.55] Each/Way. From a shrewd stable [unseated Rider] NOT AMUSED [3.30] Each/Way. Has improvement left in him [Placed,2nd] BRONZESMITH [4.05] Each/Way. Rarely runs a bad race [WON,7-1] MUSALLY [4.40] Each/Way. Goes well for Llewellyn [Non Runner] BAllY"S BAK [5.15] Each/Way. Best of the day for me,as is better than form suggests. [Fell]

[SmallTimePunter]

Re: WORCESTER RACES: 15th JUNE 2005 Have a good day lads !! :beer Top weight should take all the beating in the 1st imo.. desperate race mind you !! but i reckon it will win .... Enjoy :ok

[punter66]

Re: WORCESTER RACES: 15th JUNE 2005

Blue Hawk might be a good e.w bet in the 4.40. The trainer is local to the track (R.Dickin), its his only runner at the meeting and its the jockeys only ride at the meeting too. J.Pritchard may be claiming 7 but he is a well known and very good local jockey. Several jockey's have ridden Blue Hawk in recent outings but with Pritchard in the saddle the form reads, 1/14, 3/10, PU/13 and 4/9. First on my list for e.w chances anyway:ok

Come on fellas, 25/1 winners shouted out on the PL, what more dya want :nana I've had a great day, it aint very often you'll see me shout a 25/1 shot so ... COME ON!!!! :cheers :beer :cheers :beer :lol pulled me right out of the cack that one did. Just wanted to say what a sound bunch of lads turned up too, my only regret being i only hit Mr Ross for 2 pints, i'll have him next time :lol