Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June)

[edtkh]

With the year's second Grand Slam around the corner, I thought it's high time to get a thread underway for Roland Garros to facilitate tennis discussions pertaining to this event. ;) To kick things off, here's a little preview from me - best prices are all in brackets. For the ladies' singles, I can't see past Justine Henin-Hardenne (2.78 @ Pinnacle) for the title as she's simply in scintillating form at the moment and seems to have laid the ghost of her injuries and illnesses to rest. I've said all along the only other current WTA player I see in her league is an in-form Serena Williams(9.60 @ Betfair) and on the evidence of what I've seen of Serena over the last few tournaments(most recently the Italian Masters in Rome where she crashed out to Schiavone in straight sets), she looks a long way off. Having said that, I must stress she's someone you could never ever write off completely as she always just seems to come good in time for the Slams - every bit like what happened at the Aussie Open this year. Kim Clijsters, Mauresmo, Davenport and the lot of Russians may pose a threat on other surfaces, but most of this lot simply aren't good enough(for whatever reasons from being inapt on clay to having a frail mental frame of mind) on clay to go the full distance IMO. In a nutshell, I feel Henin-Hardenne will still have too much on current form not to win her second Roland Garros even if she's required to combat a rejuvenated Serena Williams at some stage. ;) The men's singles is certainly one of the most open in years and I suppose that could only be good for the neutral observer. Having said that, it's inevitable the serious contenders for the title would revolve around a few obvious choices. Roger Federer (3.45 @ Betfair) has still got to be my favourite for the title given the relentless mood he's been in all year. On his day, his all round game - notwithstanding claycourt tennis - is just sublime and is a class above everyone else bar none. With that sort of weapon in his arsenal, you've just got to feel he's one of those players who will have a very serious chance at everything he competes in even if history at the French Open does not favour him. If he's ever going to win Roland Garros, this must be his best chance yet given the lack of a serious odds-on contender this year and the roll on which he's coming into the tournament. Rafael Nadal(4.3 @ Betfair), while doubtless has been very impressive on clay this season and is proving to be the one to beat just as Ferrero and Coria were in 2003 and 2004 respectively coming into Roland Garros, is still not experienced enough for me to consider him a serious contender to go the full distance. One reservation I have, in particular, is his ability to last 7 best-of-five(which is just what he'd need to do to go all the way) matches, given his fatigue and fitness in the latter stages of such draining marathon matches have always got the better of him. Don't get me wrong, his time will come, but I just feel this year's French Open is a tad too early for him to make his mark - however, I must stress a quarter or semi-final appearance would be reasonable and well within his reach provided he gets a favourable draw. Obviously, Guillermo Coria(5.80 @ Betfair) is another one to look out for having promised so much, but delivered so little down the years. You can't help but feel perhaps, his best chance has passed him by last year and if he doesn't lay that ghost to rest and win a Grand Slam, which his talent has so richly promised, soon he could well become another of the also-rans of the game never to have stamped his mark on the game. Having said that, however, I can't see him having the mettle to nick the title this year given the imperious form the other top contenders are in, although I must admit he's well capable of causing the mother of all upsets on his day and he's definitely one the others will have to look out for if they're to win the French Open. Looking further afield, Juan Carlos Ferrero(17.5 @ Betfair) may be worth a little dabble as well as I feel he has got as good a chance as any of the 3 I've mentioned previously so long as he can string together his best game for the 7 matches - obviously, those days are look to be over for him ever since his series of injuries and illnesses over the last year, but I feel what he has over the other contenders at the French Open is his experience. Besides being a winner in 2003, he'd also made the semi-finals in 4 consecutive years at Roland Garros from 2000-2003 and that could give him an edge over the others who, in all probability, will be in unchartered territory. Gustavo Kuerten(270 @ Betfair) , a three-time French Open winner, may well have seen better days and this could well prove to be nothing more than a swansong for the former World no.1, but he's clearly got a decent enough game on clay to see him last 3 rounds at the tournament provided he avoids the top 3-4 players. I know his recent performances on the comeback trail in ATP events have been erratic to say the least, but it's pretty evident he has shown he still has the little glimpses of Brazilian magic which first endeared him to us when he won his first French Open as a raw teenager in 1997. Knowing the significance and emotional attachment he has for the tournament, however, it wouldn't really surprise me too much if he could go that bit further as he's always come good for this tournament however bad his form may be leading up to it - afterall, this was the same chap who seemed to be heading nowhere last year until his defeat of Federer at the Roland Garros threw him right back into the limelight. Lastly, for interest's sake, I may also throw in a penny or two on Olivier Rochus (1000 @ Betfair) and Juan Monaco (1000 @ Betfair). While this pair have little pedigree for the French Open, there's little doubt both of them have really come on a great deal over the last year and should this year's tournament throw up another surprise like Verkerk in 2003, you feel both Rochus and Monaco have got to stand every chance of being the ones to be the giantkillers. As always, not a serious proposition, but you never know what life has in store for you. ;) Cheers & Good Luck! :ok More previews, discussions to come when the draw for the final rounds have been made and when the actual tournament finally gets underway... :hope

[rcgills]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) Well Serena Williams has pulled out of the event, so it's looking even better for Justine Henin-Hardenne now. The draws have been made, they are on www.rolandgarros.com Interesting draw for Nadal, potentially faces Gasquet in the 3rd round, Gaudio in the QF and Federer in the SF.

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) Believe it or not, the second half of the men's singles look really open. With Gaudio, Federer and Nadal in the first half, the second half is pretty much one very any of the 4 could emerge victorious - Coria, Ferrero, Safin, Kuerten. Having said that, it's still very much Coria's to lose as I still can't see anyone in that half troubling him so long as he plays to form. ;) That aside, looking at the first round matches already yields a couple of potentially lucrative offers if the price is right : Starace-Henman, Monaco-Grosjean, Stepanek-Srichaphan, Verdasco-J Johansson, Mathieu-Lopez, Puerta-Ljubicic. As for the women's draw, it's pretty straightforward now - Henin-Hardenne has almost got a foot in the final so long as she maintains her current form. With Mauresmo and Sharapova as the only main threats in her half, she looks more than capable of recapturing the title she won in 2003. :ok

[davidmphill]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) Stepanek-Srichaphan is a definate bet for me.

[The Saint]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) Right - I'm making a comeback after that blazing cnut Puerta shoved me off the tennis bettiung market with hte stinking game in Houston vs Melzer..... Melzer's subsequent results have appeased me slightly but whatever else is said the betting patterns in that game stank! Kuerten to beat Sanchez. 4/6 @ Billy Hills. Not the force he was but with the croud behind him and never having failed to reeach the 4th round in his 'proper' career he should have too much for the Spanish journeyman. Starting with 100 points. I promise that once it's gone I won't be bothering you on this thread again! Good Luck to all.:clap Starting Bank - 100 Points

[libi71]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) Gonna give this tournament a try too. My first bet a double on Moya - Grosjean Moya h2h against A.Martin 6-1. Not a great season on clay for Moya as of yet, but Martin has not beaten anyone of high standards this season on clay either. From h2h, Moya should have no problem with his Grosjean has never played J. Monaco, but is far more experienced. Don't follow my bets, I am no specialist on tennis :D :hope

[mattsthebest]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) IMO single bets on Monaco and Martin represent good value, as opposed to placing their more favoured opponents in a multi. Moya has had problems with his shoulder all season and Grosjean has hardly shown anything on Clay so far, and surely will be looking forward to his more favoured surface at Wimbledon.

[Master Joe]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) I always watch the Grand Slams but hardly any other tournament so to me I have no idea what form the players are in. So bearing that in mind, I do need a little bit of assistants to guide me and the excellent Edtkh has put up his tips and I'm going to trust his judgement and go with: £5 Win at 17.5 Juan Carlos Ferreros. £5 Each-Way at 270 Gustavo Kuerten. Aas I said I have no idea what form the players are in, in recent years Federer hasn't played as well on Clay as on other surfaces, this year is he playing very well on clay?

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) The early rounds of Grand Slams often offer the best money-making opportunities in sports and this year's Roland Garros is no exception. Let's hope this marks the beginning of a tournament that'd be as lucrative as it has been with the other Slams. ;) As there're tonnes of matches going on in the early rounds of Grand Slams, I won't be explaining any selections in great detail unless there're special circumstances meriting them and lastly, I'd be making selections in the form of accas to get the bets to yield decent odds. On to the action of Day 1 then... 10pts Monaco to beat Grosjean (2.44 @ Betfair) :( The only opportunity of a decent upset on Day 1 for me. :hope With the exception of 2001(SF) and 2002(QF), Grosjean has never made any major impact at the French Open and his record on clay is very average to say the least. While he may be in better form this year than he was over the last 2 years coming into the French Open, you've to feel Monaco will provide him with as stern a test as any he's ever encountered in a first round clash at Roland Garros and the Argentine upstart is well capable of crushing the French veteran at a canter if he plays to his potential - only thing that holds me back from putting a bigger stake on this one is the fact Monaco has a knack of blowing hot and cold at times(as was the case when he went down 6-0, 6-0 to Canas at the Rome Italian Masters), combining the sublime with the ridiculous in equal measure. However, 2.44 is still too massive to be given a miss considering he's technically the better player on clay. 20pts Moya-Stepanek (1.51 @ Ladbrokes) :D This is as straightforward as it gets. Srichaphan, along with J Johansson, must easily rank as the worst claycourt players amongst the top 30 by a mile as their performances on clay so far would suggest they'd probably be making a living doing something else if tennis was played on clay all year. Stepanek, while not an exciting player to watch, is nevertheless a solid player who has an effective game on all surfaces - his most notable achievement so far on clay this season must have been his performance against an in-form Nadal at the Rome Masters where he took a set off the Spanish wonderkid(something only Coria has managed) on clay. 'Nuff said! Similarly, Moya missed the recent Hamburg Masters to focus on Roland Garros as he was recuperating from a shoulder injury hardly helped by his exploits at the Rome Masters. While his fitness may remain suspect to some extent(it's a question of match fitness here more than whether the injury is still plaguing him I must stress), you feel his h2h against Martin just speaks for itself - he leads 5-1 with all previous encounters having taken place on clay. 10pts Mamic-Stepanek (2.03 @ Ladbrokes) :D This Raymond-Mamic ladies' encounter is very much a case in point of the bookies not being familiar with the credentials of the less illustrious names. Raymond is an aging veteran hopeless at claycourt tennis without having gone past the 2nd round in 10 of the 11(only exception was in '94 when she made the 4th Round) Roland Garros campaigns she's contested in and has a woeful W-L 45-48 career record on clay. Contrast that with her opponent, a 20-year-old Croatian upstart, who boasts a 15-8 career record on clay and you see the difference of the two players' credentials on clay - the veteran American may have an edge on other surfaces, but quite evidently, there's only going to be 1 winner in this matchup on clay. 1.83 is certainly very, very generous. :tongue2 There're one or two other matches which are clearly not as biased as the bookies' odds would have you believe, although I personally won't be touching them(may be of interest to those who crave value, but do not realistically expect any returns :lol ) : Chela-Schuettler(Chela is a very average player on claycourt at best and there's clearly no way he's a worthy 1.22 shot by any stretch of the imagination), Mantilla-Zib(you never know which Mantilla turns up these days and today's Mantilla is clearly not the same player of old who'd easily justify his 1.36 shot). Cheers & Good Luck! :ok Starting Bank : 100.00pts Current Bank : 100.00pts Profit/Loss : 0.00pts

[Rumlesen]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) Great stuff Edtkh, i will follow you on Monaco and Mamic:ok

[ian3012]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) i didn't realise this tourney was 5 sets:o been used to 3 for so long..... :rollin

[libi71]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) Moya through 3-1 after loosing the first set. Looks nice for my double, Grosjean leads 2-0 and break in the third. But you never no on clay :clap

[libi71]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) Grosjean - Monaco 3-0, nice start to the tourney. :clap Let's wait for Mrs Mamic

[mattsthebest]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) Congrats libi.

[-Loki-]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) Nice going Lib

[libi71]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) stepanek through 3-1 Mamic looking good 6-2 4-1 as we speak Great job edtkh:clap

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) Madame Sanda Mamic(as the umpire would address her) converted her 5th match point to take the match 6-2, 6-4. ;) Hope some people profitted from the bookie's lack of knowledge on these seemingly anonymous players... Having said that, I thought it was such a pity Monaco had such a terrible time holding serve and being unable to break Grosjean's serves at critical points(most notably when he was up a break point with Grosjean 6-5 up in the first set) - his nerves and an inability to hold serves could well see him become just another Chela instead of his much better compatriots. Anyway, it's been a pretty profittable Day 1 and long may that continue. :ok Starting Bank : 100.00pts Current Bank : 110.50pts Profit/Loss : +10.50pts libi71 : Good shout on Grosjean! ;)

[rasher]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) I certainly did profit from that. Great call again Ed. Rasher

[ross h]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) Just like to add my thanks to edtkh for his top work. Had a meaty wee bet on Mamic which will enable me to lose it all again on the speedway tonight. Cheers.

[libi71]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) Thanks edtkh and great call on mamic (could get her even @2.0) I did not have a lot of opportunity to follow today, so here is one question? How are conditions in Paris? Dry (and therefore getting faster) or wet?

[libi71]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) Have got one for tomorrow, but I am not really sure, so maybe you guys got some opinions: Massu - Wawrinka 1.3 2.9 @ Interwetten Doesn't that seem to be huge value on Wawrinka? He has the advantage of having played in the qualification, further more he likes Paris (Junior-Champ of last year if I am not mistaken) and with some good results in Barcelona with a quarter final. Massu did not impress too much this year, R32 seems the best he could get.

[NW1970]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) 2.9 is no value, libi, mate. Look at Will Hill and you can have 3.40 on Wawrinka. I agree the Swiss is an up and coming player, with good talent. Whether or not he can take out Massu is debatable. Massu is sometimes a bit flaky, but he tends to turn up for the big tournaments or when playing for Chile. By all accounts, Wawrinka struggled a bit in the qualifiers, he might not be on top form. I agree that it is one of the more interesting value bets for tomorrow. I am also considering Dupuis (v Vliegen), Lopez v Mathieu (despite Mathieu's home support), and Rochus v Garcia-Lopez (above evens too big for little Olivier). None of them safe bets, though.

[libi71]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) thanks NW1970 for the infos. Had not been shopping around for better odds, but obviously 3.4 is even better value. Regarding Massu and steping up at big tournaments, this is his Grand Slam roster

	Grand Slam Singles Results
	Year		Australian Open		Roland Garros		Wimbledon		US Open
	2000	-	2ND	1ST	1ST
	2001	1ST	1ST	3RD	2ND
	2002	1ST	-	1ST	3RD
	2003	-	2ND	2ND	3RD
	2004	1ST	3RD	1ST	2ND
	2005	2ND	-	-	-

Not to impressive, I think he is stepping up more when playing for Chile (Olympic Games, Davis Cup). I will give it a small try on Wawrinka, lets see if he can come up with the surprise. Have to spend that money I won yesterday :rollin

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) Got to agree with what's been said about Wawrinka - there's no reason he should be that big and that should serve as the value bet of Day 2. 10pts Wawrinka to beat Massu (3.40 @ Betfair) :D This is a bit of a joke, really. If the prices were sorted on the basis of the form of both players this year, Wawrinka should be odds-on here, but evidently his lack of experience has been taken into account in the way this match has been priced. It must be said Massu's decent run at the Hamburg Masters a fortnight ago did Wawrinka's price no harm at all and that's certainly too irresistible a price to be given a miss. Massu has had a torried time since Athens last year and up until Hamburg, he hardly looked capable of making progress in any tournaments and I still remain unconvinced he has what it takes to make the second round of Roland Garros this year. Once again, my only reservation - which basically holds me back from putting a bigger stake on Wawrinka - is Wawrinka's lack of experience at the major events(this is only his first Slam) and you never know how his nerves might hold out. Having said that, Massu is equally capable of the ridiculous in equal measure just as he did at the Aussie Open when he crashed out to Kohlschreiber. Worth a dabble nonetheless. ;) 20pts JR Lisnard-Kiefer (2.29 @ Ladbrokes) :( Kiefer is pretty straightforward for me - besides getting thumped by Coria every now and then, he's proved he's got a good game for clay and should prove too much for Karlovic who obviously fancies surfaces with a faster bounce. Lisnard is a massive bet for me, really. How he's priced up and rated at a 50-50 shot of beating Dick Norman is beyond me. Norman, the aging 34-year-old Belgian journeyman, has an unenviable Grand Slams record of having qualified for just 9 Grand Slams(of which, made only 2 significant appearances when he made the 3rd Round of Roland Garros in '97 and the 4th Round of Wimbledon in '95) in an 11-year career. It's equally important to note this is Norman's first Grand Slam match since Wimbledon 2003. :eek While Lisnard is no world beater himself, he has at least qualified for 14 Grand Slams(Lisnard made the 3rd Round of this year's Aussie Open) in a 7-year career which should go some way towards suggesting he's in better shape than his Belgian counterpart. All that before taking into consideration Lisnard will also have the advantage of playing with the famously notorious Parisian crowd behind him - if ever there was a licence to print money, this must be one of those opportunities. 20pts Kuerten-Haas (2.26 @ Ladbrokes) :( Mayer is a terrible claycourt player and I just can't imagine him living with his more illustrious - and efficient - counterpart in Haas. The contrasting fortune of both players at last week's World Team Cup just sums up the calibre of the players in question for me. As The Saint has pointed out days ago, Kuerten to beat Sanchez must surely be another value bet. David Sanchez hasn't gone past the first round at Roland Garros since 2003(in fact, only made the 3rd Round in 2001 and 2nd Round in 2002) and I see no reason why that record should change today when he's up against an opponent whose claycourt record is as good as any in the business. Although Kuerten has looked shaky at times in tournaments leading up to Roland Garros, you feel he's still got it in him to do the business against a player as mediocre as Sanchez. Cheers & Good Luck! :ok Starting Bank : 100.00pts Current Bank : 110.50pts Profit/Loss : +10.50pts

[The Saint]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) For any1 that is following Edith's tips rather than mine Kuerten is a disturbing 4/5 at Betfair.... No one quein up to back him either whilst there's currently plenty for Sanchez at slightly under the 5/4 being offered redily by many a traditional Bookmaker.... Al things being equal, Kuerten should win this match fairly convincingly.... However, (paranoid? yes.) I'm really starting to worry about all things being equal! Good Luck to all. Seems that most are off to a good start. PS. ATP site is playing up big time. As in I can't even get on it!:wall

[mr chips]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) Lisnard struggling! 6-1 and 3-0 down!

[ian3012]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) i'm getting fed up cos i can't follow these games fast enough:@ i'm watching henin-hardface on eurosport...... obviously no bet there. i've just compared the speed of livescore.com v tbw.com tbw wins everytime for speed:clap anyone got any better idea? no interactive on eurosport...ffs.... there was at hamburg and berlin.... and this is sposed to be a bigger tourney?.... wtf???:sad

[ian3012]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) chips...... tbw ..... while faster than livescore..... still says 1-0 in the second set to norman you say 3-0....! whats your info plz?

[rcgills]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) Ian, don't know what tbw.com is (tried going there and it says webpage under construction, so I'm guessing tbw is some kind of abbreviation), but I'd guess the official site live scoreboard is faster. Doesn't seem to be in real time, but updates pretty quickly, maybe every 30 seconds or so. It's on www.rolandgarros.com

[ian3012]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) sorry..... www.tbwsport.com and thanx rcg!:clap