Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June)

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June)

If my bet loses I hope yours wins :lol

:rollin That's most certainly be the case unless the first set isn't completed. Don't let me put you off backing Davydenko though as I must stress this is a very even encounter which I feel Haas just has a slight edge going into it. ;)

[slapdash]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) Why don't you bet with each other and cut out the bookie's overround?

[cluelessG]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June)

15-year-old Karatantcheva must have registered the biggest giantkilling feat at Roland Garros so far with her defeat of Venus Williams... :rollin

Karatantcheva actually won the title in the girls' competition at Roland Garros last year so she obviously likes clay courts, especially in Paris. We will probably see more of her in the future. She's the only hope of Bulgarian tennis, since Maggie Maleeva is past her best now. A quote from the main site of the tournament:"Williams made 52 unforced errors, committed seven double faults, lost serve nine times and looked disinterested in the final set." :rollin Watching the news on one of the TV channels in Bulgaria this evening, I was very surprised that they failed to mention the great win of Karatantcheva. A few words about Davenport and Klijsters, and that was all. Phew!

[tyreeq]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) Couple of things. First, what Dave said in response to Ed's replies to my post was exactly right. For me, betting is spotting when odds are too long or too short - that's when there is potential for profit. Ancic was likey to lose in my opinion, but not at those odds there was a fair chance IMO that he could have pulled off a minor shock - one which was maybe a 3.00 shock as opposed to 4.5, ie if I were to bet on that match 9 times, I'd win it 3 times as opposed to twice which is what the bookies think. I actually backed Baghdatis as well in the previous round - again, not becuase I thought I was on a winner, but because at 9/1 odds I thought that he was likely to win more than 1 in 10 times. The fact that he took the 1st 6-0 reflects that. Moving on to tomorrow's games - I actually think the Davydenko match is 50-50, and the bookies offering Haas as the favourite should be bet against. Ferrero should beat Safin, but again it's 55-45 so an odds-against Safin might be worth a bet, especially as he has recently played him and lost - so would be more determined to overcome the defeat... Wawrinka is not the favourite in a match that could go either way - so little bet there, and Kiefer to bt. Andreev and Mathieu (with the home crowd) to bt. Canas (confusing argentine who's more a hard player than a clay man) is another tasty bet.

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June)

Couple of things. First, what Dave said in response to Ed's replies to my post was exactly right. For me, betting is spotting when odds are too long or too short - that's when there is potential for profit. Ancic was likey to lose in my opinion, but not at those odds there was a fair chance IMO that he could have pulled off a minor shock - one which was maybe a 3.00 shock as opposed to 4.5, ie if I were to bet on that match 9 times, I'd win it 3 times as opposed to twice which is what the bookies think. I actually backed Baghdatis as well in the previous round - again, not becuase I thought I was on a winner, but because at 9/1 odds I thought that he was likely to win more than 1 in 10 times. The fact that he took the 1st 6-0 reflects that.

I know where you were coming from, tyreeq. From my perspective, however, I don't believe there's 'value' in anything just because the prices look big if that particular selection does not have a realistic chance of winning(I know that's not a view too many people on PL share). For me, it's pretty evident there're some bets where you either stick with the favourite(something which you might consider no value, but just can't see past them) or just stay out. Put it this way, Minardi is given a 1000/1 shot to win any F1 race and even though the probability of that happening is 1/10(well, if you don't take into consideration the quality of the respective teams), I don't suppose there's too much value as such. You could make the same case for many other instances in betting, obviously. To be honest, going for such 'value' is not a profittable strategy at all IMO because in the early rounds of Grand Slams, I'd go so far as to say 50% of the matches do not give you a true reflection of reality but not too many of those will actually result in upsets to generate a profit. A prime example would be in women's tennis : Davenport and Dementieva were both odds-on shots below 1.20 to win their respective matches yesterday and both only won their matches 2-1 - in theory, there'd hardly be any value in a player dropping a set in a Best of 3 match when she's just priced at a paltry 1.14, but more than 9 times out of10 you know full well they'd bounce back to win the match. Having said that, I don't see how much sense it's going to make if you're gonna dabble in everything that offers massive odds because as little as 10% is going to come in for anything with odds of 5.00 or greater. Sometimes, the result makes you think there's more 'value' than there really is. Take the Baghdatis match for instance, it's pretty obvious Nalbandian wasn't at the match in the first set, collapsing 6-0 in the first set only to battle back to win 3-1. Does that necessarily justify value? I think not, simply because Bandy had already given up on the set by the time he was broken for the second time in that set and he simply conserved his energy to bounce back in the match. Of course, if you'd genuinely believed Baghdatis could get the better of Bandy at least once in 9 attempts on clay, you're entitled to think there's value to stick with Baghdatis and go for it by all means and I'd agree with your interpretation of value on that score but I just couldn't see that happening - pretty much the same for Ancic yesterday.

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June)

Karatantcheva actually won the title in the girls' competition at Roland Garros last year so she obviously likes clay courts, especially in Paris. We will probably see more of her in the future. She's the only hope of Bulgarian tennis, since Maggie Maleeva is past her best now. A quote from the main site of the tournament:"Williams made 52 unforced errors, committed seven double faults, lost serve nine times and looked disinterested in the final set." :rollin Watching the news on one of the TV channels in Bulgaria this evening, I was very surprised that they failed to mention the great win of Karatantcheva. A few words about Davenport and Klijsters, and that was all. Phew!

I was watching the match live and must admit what really impressed me was her having the courage to take the game to Williams believing she could win and not ever letting her head drop even after Williams fought back in the second set. That's certainly a refreshing sight in women's tennis after watching so many cnuts let their matches slip away just due to their lack of self-belief - Serbotnik and Razzano should have both sent Davenport packing just as Zvonareva should have beaten Pierce. These cnuts make a mockery of women's tennis with their antics - basically, either failing to hold serves when serving for matches, making countless double faults or in the case of Zvonareva, breaking into tears on facing the hostile Parisian crowd even when leading. Shocking stuff! :eek As someone pointed out to me, there's money to be made in women's tennis, but that's only for people who can think like them(maybe your missus might come in handy at helping you make sense of the ladies' game). :rollin

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) Overlooked this decent bet with my previous post, so I'll add it in here. 10pts Llagostera Vives to beat Dechy (2.75 @ Ladbrokes) :D Although Dechy holds a 2-0 h2h lead(both on clay) over Llagostera Vives, it must be noted both matches were won by a slender 2-1 scoreline and had taken place in 2000 and 2002 respectively. It's been 3 years since their last meeting and Llagostera Vives has come on in leaps and bounds over the last 6 months and has certainly caused a few shocks along the way. There's little question Vives is in better form coming into this match, boasting a 11-4 W-L claycourt this year while Dechy's reads 7-5. This is pretty much an even contest and there's just no reason for Vives to be priced at a massive 2.75 - not even if the French crowd gets behind Dechy big time, which might not even be the case to begin with as this is an early match where sparse crowds have been seen over the last few days. Cheers & Good Luck! :ok

[dave]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June)

To be honest, going for such 'value' is not a profittable strategy at all IMO because in the early rounds of Grand Slams, I'd go so far as to say 50% of the matches do not give you a true reflection of reality but not too many of those will actually result in upsets to generate a profit. A prime example would be in women's tennis : Davenport and Dementieva were both odds-on shots below 1.20 to win their respective matches yesterday and both only won their matches 2-1 - in theory, there'd hardly be any value in a player dropping a set in a Best of 3 match when she's just priced at a paltry 1.14, but more than 9 times out of10 you know full well they'd bounce back to win the match. Having said that, I don't see how much sense it's going to make if you're gonna dabble in everything that offers massive odds because as little as 10% is going to come in for anything with odds of 5.00 or greater.

You're missing the point Ed - in the example you give, if they will win 9 times out of 10 then any odds of above 1.11 will be value odds - so the 1.14 IS value. Value is not only about longer prices.

[libi71]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) My bets for today, 2.5pts each: Llagostera Wawrinka Ferrero Schiavone and 2 out of 4 (6 bets) for 1pt each. Not much to add to the previous posts. As said before, in the case of Wawrinka, I hope that the mental boost from his big comeback victory against Black will outweigh the fatigue he will feel (5 sets on Wednesday, 5 matches on clay since last week). Puerta seems to be very inconsistent, so lets hope he does not have one of his good days today :D @ed: your point about women tennis, ROFL, must check back with the missus, as I don't understand women definately. Regarding your discussion about value: wether you go for long odds or short odds, there always must be value in it, because else you will loose money in the long run (that is just the definition of it). Let's assume you always back favourites at 1.1. If you would blindly do so, I am sure you would loose money in the course of one year, as the bookies won't get it that wrong. So there is no value in that strategy. But if you pick selected 1.1, you might achieve more than the 9 out 10 that you need to make this profitable, so you found value (if you are able to pull this off over an extended period of time). Obviously, the higher the odds, the biggger are fluctuations. So, to make it short, in their own way, all of us are looking for value, be it with favourites or outsiders.

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June)

You're missing the point Ed - in the example you give' date=' if they will win 9 times out of 10 then any odds of above 1.11 will be value odds - so the 1.14 [b']IS value. Value is not only about longer prices.

I'd beg to differ, although this may not be an appropriate thread to go back to another age-old debate on the perception of value as there're obviously far more pressing matters to discuss. True, value is not only about long prices, but it's those with long odds that form the geist that questions the concept of value(as was the case with Nalbandian-Ancic) as we discuss. Case in point : going by your logic, if Berdych or Hrbaty were to meet Federer anytime soon, clearly opposing Federer at anything above evens would represent value since Federer does not lead on h2h? But is that really the case? You draw your own conclusions. Perhaps, we could also take the Minardi analogy for comparison then : in theory, any 1000/1 shot would mean it'd be value so long as they win once in a thousand attempts, so are you for a moment suggesting you think it'd be prudent to back them to win a race with the same stakes 1000 times to realise there's only no value in that when it doesn't come in? You may not agree with what I hold out to be value, but I will simply never touch anything I'm not convinced has a realistic chance(yes, they won't come in all the time, but I'm certainly not going to put my money on something expecting nothing in return) of coming in. In other words, there might be a selection which I'd rate a 5% chance of coming in, but just because odds of 50.00 is available isn't going to tempt me to put a penny on it. ;)

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June)

Regarding your discussion about value: wether you go for long odds or short odds, there always must be value in it, because else you will loose money in the long run (that is just the definition of it). Let's assume you always back favourites at 1.1. If you would blindly do so, I am sure you would loose money in the course of one year, as the bookies won't get it that wrong. So there is no value in that strategy. But if you pick selected 1.1, you might achieve more than the 9 out 10 that you need to make this profitable, so you found value (if you are able to pull this off over an extended period of time). Obviously, the higher the odds, the biggger are fluctuations. So, to make it short, in their own way, all of us are looking for value, be it with favourites or outsiders.

libi, you've maybe just put into words clearer than what I'd just painted with the idea backing 1.1 all the time may not reap you a profit in the long run even though in most, if not all, of these matches, you'd be convinced the favourite would win 9 times out of 10. ;)

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) libi, the value debate aside, looking at this strictly from a tennis perspective, are you convinced Acasuso can get the better of Volandri? Must admit Acasuso looks a better returner than Volandri though...

[dave]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June)

Case in point : going by your logic' date=' if Berdych or Hrbaty were to meet Federer anytime soon, clearly opposing Federer at anything above evens would represent value since Federer does not lead on h2h? But is that really the case? You draw your own conclusions.[/quote'] No. Where did I mention H2Hs or past records? You don't decide value on past performances, you decide it on what chance someone has today. The hard part is deciding what % chance someone has of winning.

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June)

No. Where did I mention H2Hs or past records? You don't decide value on past performances' date=' you decide it on what chance someone has today. The hard part is deciding what % chance someone has of winning.[/Quote']Apologies if I misread you. H2H's and past records may not matter to you that much, but obviously there're people out there - especially those with next-to-no-knowledge on tennis - who rely on those stats to form their perceptions of value. ;) I couldn't agree more on value being a matter of deciding what chance a selection has of winning on that particular day, but how anyone arrives at a conclusion with regards to that is pretty subjective and open to discussion in the first place - to be fair, I think we're still arguing on this point. To be fair, I don't think the Minardi argument is a flawed one - it's only crap to you and me value-wise because we don't believe they can win even once in a thousand attempts. You can't rule out there aren't people out there who'd tell you they're value, just as there were those who - I must stress - were perfectly entitled to think Ancic was a worthy 4.5 shot.

[dave]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June)

but how anyone arrives at a conclusion with regards to that is pretty subjective and open to discussion in the first place

Indeed, and perfect judgment of % chance of winning is the holy grail of betting. If we knew the answer then we'd all be a lot richer than we are (although with Grand Slam season in progress, maybe I should exclude you from the poor list;) )

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June)

Indeed' date=' and perfect judgment of % chance of winning is the holy grail of betting. If we knew the answer then we'd all be a lot richer than we are (although with Grand Slam season in progress, maybe I should exclude you from the poor list;) )[/quote'] :rollin And in case I haven't mentioned, I've still yet to sort out how value's derived for ladies' tennis. :lol So maybe we'll have less of an argument on that subject...

[rasher]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) On the subject of value I can't resist Moya at 8.4 against Federer. I know he's not the man he used to be but he's a natural clay courter unlike Federer. Rasher

[libi71]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June)

libi' date=' the value debate aside, looking at this strictly from a tennis perspective, are you convinced Acasuso can get the better of Volandri? Must admit Acasuso looks a better returner than Volandri though...[/quote'] Did not have a lot of opportunity to watch actually tennis. I looked into the stats yesterday and gave it a thought, but as I was not really sure, I decided to keep my hands from it. If I remember right, Acasuso has beaten Volandri twice before on clay and given his performance against Roddick, I guess he really has a chance of winning this one.

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June)

Did not have a lot of opportunity to watch actually tennis. I looked into the stats yesterday and gave it a thought, but as I was not really sure, I decided to keep my hands from it. If I remember right, Acasuso has beaten Volandri twice before on clay and given his performance against Roddick, I guess he really has a chance of winning this one.

I watched Acasuso-Roddick, but haven't had a chance to watch any of Volandri's matches so far at Roland Garros. Having said that, Volandri has a terrible knack of struggling to close up matches and that frail mental state of mind could cost him, not to mention he's up against someone whose confidence must be massively boosted by defeating Roddick. ;)

[rasher]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) Volandri has retired.

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) If anyone needed any reason as to why Henin-Hardenne justifies being the favourite for the women's singles title, just watch the way she's clawed her way back from 0-5 down to make it 5-4 in the first set against Medina Garrigues. Absolutely top class - if only more of the other ladies had half her mental strength... ;) As I write, Wawrinka's struggling :( , but Llagostera Vives is a set and a break up :clap

[-Loki-]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) Hardenne should win, but it might be a long game:zzz

[libi71]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) quick round up: Llagostera has made it, so has Henin-Hardenne Acasuso def Volandri as the second has to give up during first set Wawrinka bottled it and Loit (match from yesterday) went out as well. Safin is one set up against Ferrero and Davydenko one against Haas. Schiavone 5-5 Groenefeld. I think those were the matches anybody seemed to have some money in.

[dave]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) Something wrong with Haas? Struggling to win a game at the moment. Hopefully not injured otherwise my Davydenko bet could get voided.

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June)

Something wrong with Haas? Struggling to win a game at the moment. Hopefully not injured otherwise my Davydenko bet could get voided.

He's doing an Andre Agassi - he's pretty useless staying on anyway... His movement looks unnatural to begin with, not to mention he's not exactly mentally the strongest player around - can't see past Davydenko from here though.

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) Well, looks like Davydenko has done the job for you in straight sets... ;)

[dave]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) I'd like to claim the credit, so that's exactly what I'm going to do. Did I not mention I expected him to piss it? :lol ;)

[kojic2003]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) Ivanovic vs Mauresmo 2:1 (6:4 3:6 6:4) :clap Great victory!I thought Mauresmo will finish her off in 3rd set and turn things around, but at the end it was a very comfortable set from Ivanovic.

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June)

Ivanovic vs Mauresmo 2:1 (6:4 3:6 6:4) :clap Great victory!I thought Mauresmo will finish her off in 3rd set and turn things around, but at the end it was a very comfortable set from Ivanovic.

While I'm nowhere as blindly passionate about all Serbian, Croatian(or basically players from any part of the former Yugoslavia) players, there's no denying Ivanovic is very much one for the future. Been following her since the Rome Italian Masters, but there was no way I could have seen her surviving Mauresmo with the backing of the hostile Parisian crowd on Court Chatrier - well, not after watching Zvonareva weeping despite leading Mary Peirce anyway! :lol

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) Just what's wrong with the French that they call off play at 9.30pm CET? The Hewitt-Nalbandian clash at the Aussie Open went way past midnight(local time). In a way, this tournament is a bit of a joke given the abnormal practices and the unsporting nature of the fans when it comes to backing home players. Nevertheless, Day 6 hasn't been all that great yielding a loss of 5.1 points(assuming Canas wins). Starting Bank : 100.00pts Current Bank : 213.30pts Profit/Loss : +113.30pts