Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June)

[libi71]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June)

I wouldn't touch Ancic with a bargepole - certainly not at 3.20 anyway. Nalbandian should take this easily' date=' especially after the warmup :lol provided by Baghdatis in the previous round. If anything, Bandy has got to be the stuff for accas...[/quote'] ok, then this is cleared now, thanx

[-Loki-]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) Does anyone possibly see Nadal or Federer losing, otherwise i am going to take them both in a double. Probably add Clijsters in as well, she seems to be in great form at the moment. Maybe its that Break up of Hewitt thats giving her the power to win:rollin Nadal-Federer-Clijsters:dude

[mattsthebest]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) Nadal would be no certainty against a player of Gasquet's ability, especially when he's playing in front of the notoriously parochial and boistrous Parisian crowd. The odds on Nadal are short, and certainly don't reflect the true nature of this matchup. There is IMO value in backing Gasquet. I also don't believe that Federer's matchup with Gonzalez will be straight forward, and could see the Chilean troubling the FedEx. Maybe not enough to beat him but certainly to keep it close and take a set. :ok

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) A quick look at the coupons for Day 5 matches clearly indicate there're quite a few very decent bets, especially in some ladies' matches. ;) But I'll start things off with the eagerly-anticipated clash between the two teenage wonderkids. 10pts Nadal to win 3-1 (4.00 @ Betfair) :( 10pts Gasquet to win (4.30 @ Betfair) :( Gasquet is no mug and I feel the Parisian crowd - the most unsporting(but highly effective :lol ) crowd in tennis IMO - will play a big part in this match just as they did in pushing Clement to take Kiefer to 5 sets yesterday before succumbing. Nadal has met Gasquet twice on clay - 2004 in Estoril and 2005 in Monte Carlo - and won both matches 2-1. On the back of those performances, this is by no means a certainty for Nadal. One of the main reservations I had with regards to Nadal being made such a big favourite coming into this tournament was I felt he couldn't live up to the pressure he'd be facing at Roland Garros - people need to remember this kid is just 18 and should he win, he'd become only the second youngest player to win the men's title at his first attempt(the first being Michael Chang back in '89 of course). Now, before anyone starts drawing comparisons to Chang(I know many think Nadal is a better player now than Chang was at 17 and I concur with that view), I must stress I thought one of the reasons that brought Chang success back in '89 was the lack of interest and pressure in him until he beat Ivan Lendl in that historic 5-set epic encounter(where he was serving underhand for a period due to cramps). Not to mention the press interest - and with it, the pressure that would inevitably come with it, has increased many times. Nadal, has shown he still doesn't have the bottle(or the lack of experience) to take 5-set matches to the wire and dominate a match(as he went down to Hewitt when he really should have won at the Aussie Open and the same could be said against Federer at the Nasdaq-100). In essence, this is Nadal's first real test and I feel it'll be a very stern one - certainly not one he'll win in straight sets IMO and given his experience and records in 5-setters, I won't back him to win 3-2 either. Gasquet, with the backing of the vociferous Parisian crowd, could really spring a surprise here and hence, I wouldn't really rule him out of the running in this match as I feel Nadal's all-action style could catch up(to be honest, I can't see Nadal lasting 2 weeks running up and down, chasing every point) with him sooner or later - afterall, here's someone who has the experience of having beaten Federer. That explains why I have gone for a Gasquet win with a Nadal 3-1 saver. 20pts Clijsters 2-0-Federer-Dementieva-Nalbandian (2.15 @ Ladbrokes) :D I can't see Morigami making any headway against Dementieva at all - I know the price is short, but this is pretty straightforward. Last year's finalist should prove too much for the Japanese. Similarly, Clijsters is one of the finest on tour and she's just in a different league from Hantuchova - along with Henin-Hardenne, she's the only one in the women's game I'd trust with set bettings. Can't see the Slovak doing much, really. As I explained to Libi yesterday, Nalbandian should take this easily - Ancic's pedigree on clay simply isn't at Bandy's level yet much as he has improved this year. I thought Nalbandian did really well to recover from a 0-6 1st set deficit against Baghdatis in the last round to win 3-1 - if Ancic had played Baghdatis in that sort of form, the Cypriot would have sorted him out in straight sets at a canter IMO. Federer, well, what needs to be said about this man that isn't already common knowledge? Gonzalez may be a big hitter that could prove effective against lesser players, but up against the world no.1 who's in the form of his life on clay, there's only going to be 1 winner for me. 20pts Hanescu-Davenport (2.44 @ Ladbrokes) :D Davenport is just too experienced for Razzano and I can only see 1 winner here, however much she'd make a struggle of it. Hanescu-Horna should be another exciting spectacle as well between two claycourt specialists. I'll stick with Hanescu for this one because I feel he's a more solid player than Horna - Horna has a knack of losing his concentration at crucial times which could prove costly, although he got away with that against Henman. Cheers & Good Luck! :ok Starting Bank : 100.00pts Current Bank : 186.60pts Profit/Loss : +86.60pts

[libi71]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) Another good one from you, edtkh. Bin looking into 3-1, 3-2 for Nadal, but your explanation is pretty convincing. Two more ideas I would like to push to you guys, maybe someone has some thoughts on that: Loit - Gagliardi: Loit to win, available around 1.5. Loit should have more in this match, she has won 2 tourneys last year. For Gagliardi, reaching round 3 has been more than she expected and I can't remember any recent real upsets from her. Zvonareva - Pierce: Zwonareva to win around 2. From all I can see, Zvonareva had the better season on clay and is ranked higher. For Pierce speaks past glory. Any comments?

[libi71]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) ok, for the records, 2.5pts on the following Nadal 3-1 @3.4 Gasquet to win @3.6 Loit to win @1.4 Zvonareva to win @2

[kojic2003]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June)

one first glimpse to tomorrow's matches: nalbandian - ancic: my bookie is offering 3.2 for ancic, which seems to me a bit big. Nalbandian has won the tournament in Munich, where he did not have to beat anybody as high as ancic, else he did not perform. Ancic had some decent tourney at Hamburg, which is more recent. Not a load of problems for them in the first to rounds, judging only from results. Has any one seen these two in Paris? What are your thoughts?

Ancic@ 4.60 at Pinnacle! ;) It's definitely worth of shot IMO.The price is huge.I haven't seen Ancic since Davis Cup(USA v Croatia), so can't help you here, but many people believe that Ancic is capable to beat Nalbandian today.

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June)

Ancic@ 4.60 at Pinnacle! ;) It's definitely worth of shot IMO.The price is huge.I haven't seen Ancic since Davis Cup(USA v Croatia)' date=' so can't help you here, but many people believe that Ancic is capable to beat Nalbandian today.[/quote'] May God bless you if you've really put your money on Ancic!

[libi71]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) Clijster through in 2 Davenport struggling 7-5 (after 0-4) and 1-4 now

[tyreeq]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) I don't think a bet on Ancic is too bad an idea. He's probably going to lose but I think he's underrated on clay because of his big-serve making him appear to be a fast-court player - but he's pretty handy on the dirt, and Nandy hasn't been the strong force we're used to in recent tournaments.

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June)

I don't think a bet on Ancic is too bad an idea. He's probably going to lose but I think he's underrated on clay because of his big-serve making him appear to be a fast-court player - but he's pretty handy on the dirt, and Nandy hasn't been the strong force we're used to in recent tournaments.

You don't think it's too bad an idea backing Ancic, but you think he's going to lose? :o I don't quite get you. Nevertheless, decide for yourself if Ancic will win 1 in 4 against Nalbandian on clay and if you fancy that, then by all means go for Ancic. If this meeting were to take place at Wimbledon or the US Open, I'd bite your hand off for 2.50 on Ancic, nevermind 4.50. Having said that, this is a match on clay. I know many people do not rate Nalbandian as a typical Argentinian on claycourts in the league of the Corias and Gaudios. While that's true to a certain extent, I still maintain he's a notch above Ancic. Don't get me wrong, Ancic ain't a bad player, but he just hasn't got the game on clay to wear Nalbandian down - big serves count for next-to-nothing as anyone who follows tennis will tell you and if you had seen Bandy's match against Baghdatis, you'd have seen that was a classy Bandy(and not the out-of-sorts cnut seemingly drifting nowhere at one point before his Munich triumph) out there - honestly, I couldn't even have seen Ancic beating Baghdatis on that form, nevermind Nalbandian. With that, I rest my case on Ancic-Nalbandian - we'll see soon enough...

[dave]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June)

You don't think it's too bad an idea backing Ancic' date=' but you think he's going to lose? :o I don't quite get you.[/quote'] He means he thinks it's value.

[libi71]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) Davenport through in 3 Federer also in 3

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June)

He means he thinks it's value.

No offence, but I personally don't consider any 'value' if I feel a particular selection doesn't have a realistic chance of winning - that's how I view Ancic in the context of this match. In this case, however, I advised tyreeq to go for it if he saw the value in it if he was convinced Ancic could win at least 1 in 4 against Bandy on clay... On a sidenote, did anyone follow the fluctuation of odds for Moya-Vicente? Thought that was an absolute cracker betting-wise when Vicente's odds dropped to 1.10 at the end of the 4th set thanks to people getting the word around Moya was injured... :rollin

[dave]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June)

No offence' date=' but I personally don't consider any 'value' if I feel a particular selection doesn't have a realistic chance of winning - that's how I view Ancic in the context of this match. [/quote'] When he say he will "probably" lose, I take that as him thinking there is a better than 50% chance of him losing. It just all depends on what % he does give him.

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June)

When he say he will "probably" lose' date=' I take that as him thinking there is a better than 50% chance of him losing. It just all depends on what % he does give him.[/quote'] Which just about sums up my point - if he fancies Ancic to beat Bandy at least once in 4 attempts on clay, go for it as that'd well keep you in the green with odds of 4.50. I just can't see that happening.

[rasher]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) Well Nadal came through in straight sets. Ed I have to say that you are stubborn as a mule when it comes to playing down Nadal's chances in the face of all the evidence (or playing up Grosjean's chances for that matter or Ferrero's). Nonetheless keep up the good work. Your record speaks for itself. Regards, Rasher

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June)

Well Nadal came through in straight sets. Ed I have to say that you are stubborn as a mule when it comes to playing down Nadal's chances in the face of all the evidence (or playing up Grosjean's chances for that matter or Ferrero's). Nonetheless keep up the good work. Your record speaks for itself. Regards, Rasher

On second thoughts, perhaps my analysis of the Nadal-Gasquet match wasn't that succinct - in a nutshell, it was more an analysis of what I felt would hold Nadal back from winning Roland Garros this year rather than how he'd perform against Gasquet. Having said that, I must admit I couldn't have seen Nadal winning in 3 as I'd expected Gasquet to provide him with a sterner test than he did and I suppose I wasn't alone sharing that view. But congrats if you took him to win 3-0, rasher. ;) Now that you mention Ferrero, I thought he's really in decent form so far this week and he should take Safin out at a canter(Safin's plagued by tendinitis affecting his knees from what I know) and could potentially be a finalist if he survives the test of Coria. Anyway, I'm no fan of Grosjean! :lol I'd expected Monaco to give him the boot, but surprisingly, he's into the 4th Round after seeing off Stepanek - not that bad actually, considering I'd hate watching the sight of a Stepanek, T Johansson or Hrbaty in the second week of Slams because watching these guys are no different from watching machines in a factory at work.

[rasher]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) Aplogies I meant Kuerten instead of Grosjean. Rasher

[superfly69]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) I see Tennis-Master are backing Acasuso again after they tipped him yesterday. anyone any thoughts. might be worth a small bet ..

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) 15-year-old Karatantcheva must have registered the biggest giantkilling feat at Roland Garros so far with her defeat of Venus Williams... :rollin

[dave]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) Just had a look through Saturday's matches, and one stands out. Davydenko to beat Haas @ 1.61 Davydenko has just won in St Poelten, dropping just 1 set. That followed reaching the semis in the Hamburg Masters (knocked out by Federer). He also made the last 4 in Barcelona, before JC Ferrero beat him. A win over Rochus in round 2 was a good result for Davydenko. Haas rarely wins on clay against those that have ability on it.

[libi71]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) not a good day today.:sad Nadal winning in 3, nulling both my bets in that match and Pierce winning too, after Zvonareva had been up 5-2 in the first and then threw the match away. Loit - Gagliardi suspended at 1-1. This leaves me with: Starting Bank : 100.00pts Current Bank : 109.1pts Profit/Loss : +9.1pts #bets: 14 (excluding the combo) Wins: 6 Losses: 3 Open: 1 Strike: 43% Staked: 40.5pts Yield: ~22% Hey, Ed, how does your bank look? Must be even more impressive after today.

[libi71]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) Two outsiders for tomorrow: Acasuso available at 2.2 Wawrinka available at 2.76 Both coming from massive comeback victories, having been down 2-3. On the one hand side, I see that this will taken a lot out of their tank to play only 2 days later. On the other hand, wins like this must give them an enormous boost of confidence. They are certainly still psyched up. (I guess Liverpool, who could hardly walk during overtime, would have been able to play another match right after winning the Cup, these emotion make you forget everything). They are facing tough opponents, so I would like to see a bit better odds still.

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) After a rewarding Day 5, the weekend looks a pretty bright one once again with a couple of bets which look outstanding. On to Day 6 then... 5pts Sanchez-Coria-Henin-Hardenne (4.20 @ Ladbrokes) :( Coria and Henin-Hardenne are self-explanatory and are added just to spice up the odds for Sanchez. Sanchez has really surprised me big time this week with his defeat of both Kuerten and Thomas Johansson coming into Round 3. So long as fatigue doesn't get the better of him from his 5-setter with Johansson, he should be able to give Robredo a good game even though he trails 2-0 on h2h(both previous meetings on hardcourt). 20pts Ferrero-Andreev (2.53 @ Ladbrokes) :( Safin has looked shaky in his first two rounds and on that form(that's before taking into consideration how his tendinitis will hamper him), he's just not going to give an in-form Ferrero a game. Consider Ferrero leads Safin 4-2 on h2h on clay(Ferrero also won the 2 meetings contested on clay this year) and contrast Ferrero's form(he beat both Hernych and Beck 3-0) with Safin's(beating both Dlouhy and Sluiter 3-1) coming into this match, it's pretty clear there's massive value on Ferrero. Once again, Andreev should prove too strong for Kiefer as he's just far more adept on clay than Kiefer is(even if the stats to not necessarily back that up). Andreev has got a game for clay which enables him to dictate play with his choice of shot selections and a patient buildup play, which Kiefer does not seem well equipped to handle. Besides, I feel Kiefer's draining 5-set encounter against Clement in the last round will have somewhat taken its toll on him and that could tell against Andreev. 20pts Canas-Schiavone-Coria (2.12 @ Ladbrokes) :D Canas has really come on over the last month or so, starting with the Rome Masters. He has simply gone from strength to strength since then and you can't help but feel he'll prove too much for Mathieu even if he has the crowd behind him. Schiavone is certainly another bet worth a serious look at given her claycourt form coming into this match. Schiavone's simply in a different league and having had a good track record(at least, in comparison with Groenefeld) at Roland Garros down the years, you just can't see how Groenefeld is going to extend her stay in Paris beyond Day 6. 10pts Wawrinka-Henin-Hardenne (2.91 @ Ladbrokes) :( I must stress I fancy Wawrinka not because he's been good to me :lol , but because I genuinely believe he stands a very real chance here. There's little to seperate the pair stats-wise as one's a newcomer and the other's not made much of an impact on the ATP tour until the last 6 months or so. Having said that, so long as fatigue doesn't set in(Wawrinka's been in Paris a long time having played 3 qualifiers before his matches from the first two rounds), Wawrinka's got a game(not to mention his nerves hold out better than most his age) that's going to test Puerta more sternly than any of his previous opponents. In essence, this is - in all probability - a 50-50 tie and the price on Wawrinka certainly represents some value. 10pts Haas to beat Davydenko (2.60 @ Betfair) :( Davydenko has never gone past the 2nd Round at Roland Garros prior to this year and on the back of his form coming into the tournament, you can't help but wonder how he's still around. Needless to say, it's been more a case of the abilities of those he's defeated(namely an out-of-sorts Rochus and Tuksar) in question which Davydenko has so richly profitted from. Haas is just a far more effective player on clay than Davydenko is simply because he's got a big serve. I know serves may not count for very much on clay, but where Haas has an edge over Davydenko will be in his ability to hold serves - that's something the Russian frequently struggles with and could very well prove costly against the ruthlessly efficient German. There's also little doubt Haas will come into this match fresher than Davydenko having put Mayer to the sword at a canter and benefitted from the retirement of Spadea in the last round. Another bet I feel may be worth a more serious look than I first thought before the start of the tournament is backing JC Ferrero to win the tournament or on the each-way. I said at the start(just as I did for Kuerten although that one didn't work out) both of them could mount a really serious threat and Ferrero has looked every bit that way, getting sharper as the matches go by. If he gets past Safin(which I expect him to regardless of whether Safin's recovered fully from his tendinitis), he basically has a free reign over on his half of the draw until he meets Coria - and given Coria's seemingly lackadaisical approach and failure to stamp his mark on any tournament(well, maybe except for the Rome Masters) in the buildup to Roland Garros, I wouldn't put it past Ferrero to make the final. Nevertheless, he's certainly a pretty decent back-and-lay proposition. He's available to back at 25.00(Betfair). Cheers & Good Luck! :ok Starting Bank : 100.00pts Current Bank : 218.40pts Profit/Loss : +118.40pts

[dave]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) Ed - Davydenko's just won a tournament - nothing much wrong with that kind of form.

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June)

Ed - Davydenko's just won a tournament - nothing much wrong with that kind of form.

dave, while credit could be given for his semi-final showing at Hamburg, people tend to forget here's someone who'd been drifting nowhere since the Australian Open. Contrast that with his form leading up to the Aussie Open and you'll understand what I mean and also realise how his making the quarters at the Aussie Open didn't really come as that big a surprise for someone who has never gotten past the third round in any Slams(in fact, he's only made the third round once at last year's US Open) prior to that. I don't think St Poelten does anything to boost his pedigree, really. He was odds-on to win St Poelten from the outset - that sums up the quality of the field in that tournament considering how few top players actually bother turning up for a tournament a week before the Slams. This is a 50-50 match at the very best - no way Haas warrants a 2.60(Betfair).

[dave]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) We'll have to disagree Edtkh - very confident bet on Davydenko for me.

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June)

We'll have to disagree Edtkh - very confident bet on Davydenko for me.

Let's just agree to disagree - good luck anyway! ;)

[dave]

Re: Tennis : French Open (23rd May to 5th June) If my bet loses I hope yours wins :lol