When can you have confidence in a system

[Mr Bookie Buster]

How many bets does it take for you to have confidence in a system. Is 1000 bets showing profit enough, for instance? 

Edited December 9, 2015 by Mr Bookie Buster

[Sir Puntalot]

Bookie Buster">

20 hours ago, Mr Bookie Buster said:

How many bets does it take for you to have confidence in a system. Is 1000 bets showing profit enough, for instance? 

No system is fool proof even after a million bets, it will always have a 5-10% variable swing, just like swings happen when playing blackjack to the house edge for example. 1000 is a decent sample though, why do you ask?

[Mr Bookie Buster]

I've been working on a system myself that is showing appox a 25% profit over 1100 bets. Have been betting reasonably small so far but intend to increase. Will then post the selections on here. 

[evil_inside]

The more bets the better, which is reasonable.

A large amount of bets will show the performance of your system without having to worry about periods of special circumstances, that might influence greatly your system if the number of bets is small.

As mentioned before no system will work forever, that's why you might need to correct it, improve it or stop using it.

An important thing to keep in mind, is not just profit, but how much your capital fluctuates and having a good staking plan.

 

Bookie Buster">

6 hours ago, Mr Bookie Buster said:

I've been working on a system myself that is showing appox a 25% profit over 1100 bets. Have been betting reasonably small so far but intend to increase. Will then post the selections on here. 

It would be very interesting if you could show us some charts about the profit, hit rate and the capital through time.

It's a high number for profit and it's also a high number of bets, so it's intriguing.

[Mr Bookie Buster]

Average bet is €20. Below is the profit/loss of the system per each 100 bets up to 1100. I've actually been betting using this 'system' for years but I've only recently started tracking it closely to increase profits and reduce loss. 

 

Number	Profit
1-100	533
101-200	161
201-300	-162
301-400	606
401-500	1209
501-600	-52
601-700	972
701-800	815
801-900	901
901-1000	-25
1001-1100	421.5

[muppet77]

421 profit

staked 22,000 (£20 each of the 1,100 bets?)

is a 1.9% yield. 

[evil_inside]

My understanding is that 421.5 is for matches 1001 to 1100, not from the beginning. If you make the calculations it's like 5400 profit.

[Mr Bookie Buster]

Exactly.. Your understanding is correct Evil inside

[Traderman]

1000 bets will give you a significant understanding of the strategies ability. If you consider the placement of 1000 bets then this should have covered both summer and winter I would presume, flat and jumps so it should be a very good representation of all conditions and races, unless you place 50 bets a day. If you were betting 1 point on those 1100 races and had a profit of 25% this would be a total of 275 points won during that period or is your staking plan something different. I don't know the length of time these 1100 took to place. Did you start 1 month ago, 6 months ago 2yrs. It would be good to know but the profit is of a decent level.

Edited December 11, 2015 by Traderman

[Mr Bookie Buster]

Over 6 months. Soccer though - not racing. 

[Traderman]

Ah I am sorry i didnt realise it was football I was getting worried you were going to better than me at horse racing then. cheers matey

[Mr Bookie Buster]

No chance of that. I know absolutely nothing about racing and don't bet on it at all

[MPLouis]

Bookie Buster">

On 12/10/2015, 5:09:02, Mr Bookie Buster said:

I've been working on a system myself that is showing appox a 25% profit over 1100 bets

I have heard that it is hard to average more than 10% long-term. This is backed up by evidence of the systems in Systems & Strategy. Some do amazingly well for a period, and then the performance tails off or worse. If you really are averaging 25% yield long-term, I'm not actually sure why are wasting your time posting on here actually  

[evil_inside]

From the provided results I can see that there are large fluctuations, for example going from 1209 to -52 to 72. Either this system is influenced by something specific or its whole impression is distorted by the nature of the data, by being binned into 100.

If it's a strongly subjective system might justify its volatile performance.

29 minutes ago, MPLouis said:

I have heard that it is hard to average more than 10% long-term. This is backed up by evidence of the systems in Systems & Strategy. Some do amazingly well for a period, and then the performance tails off or worse. If you really are averaging 25% yield long-term, I'm not actually sure why are wasting your time posting on here actually  

I believe that 10% is not only hard, it's pretty rare not only in general, but among those who are profitable.

There are many details about this system that if provided would help form a better opinion.

[Mr Bookie Buster]

48 minutes ago, MPLouis said:

I have heard that it is hard to average more than 10% long-term. This is backed up by evidence of the systems in Systems & Strategy. Some do amazingly well for a period, and then the performance tails off or worse. If you really are averaging 25% yield long-term, I'm not actually sure why are wasting your time posting on here actually  

My original question had nothing to do with my system. I only provided basic details when asked. I am neither looking for validation nor credit. 

[Mr Bookie Buster]

19 minutes ago, evil_inside said:

From the provided results I can see that there are large fluctuations, for example going from 1209 to -52 to 72. Either this system is influenced by something specific or its whole impression is distorted by the nature of the data, by being binned into 100.

If it's a strongly subjective system might justify its volatile performance.

I believe that 10% is not only hard, it's pretty rare not only in general, but among those who are profitable.

There are many details about this system that if provided would help form a better opinion.

Agreed. The system is definite volatile - no doubt about that. There can be a huge difference between the best 100 bets and the worst 100 bets.

[evil_inside]

Going back to your question, I would say that 1100 is a good amount of bets although since it's only in six months it might be affected by something specific or seasonal.

My general advice to everyone is to backtest their systems with as much data they can find.

Nothing can guarantee the success of your system but you can have a general idea of how it behaves even if it's a losing system.

[Mr Bookie Buster]

Thanks mate

[moggis]

On 11 December 2015 at 22:31:36, MPLouis said:

I have heard that it is hard to average more than 10% long-term. This is backed up by evidence of the systems in Systems & Strategy. Some do amazingly well for a period, and then the performance tails off or worse. If you really are averaging 25% yield long-term, I'm not actually sure why are wasting your time posting on here actually  

Although I've quoted a psrticular poster this is a general question (which may be rhetorical as it goes).Indeed it may well be that Loius remark was entirely appropriate for the context in which it was made.It did however remind me of the attitude of not a few gamblers.

 

With that in mind,

 

Im a successful bettor and yet lo and behold here I am apparently  ' wasting my time' on this forum.

 

 I hope you can imagine my bemusement at coming across comments like this.

 

And boy oh boy are such comments common on forums.

 

Well not on all betting forums as it happens. I m sure I can't advertise other forums but I could name a forum where they don't frown on successful bettors contributing.

 

But let's stick to PL. (The problem with the other forum is that I've read all the threads already and taken onboard anything of any possible use)

 

Would it be possible for someone to tell me how much money I'm allowed to have made from betting before it would be a waste of my 'valuable' time even bothering to read anything on here let alone posting?

 

I ask because obviously I had no idea that there was such a limit.

 

Clearly there is though as I distinctly remember another poster saying something similar in another thread.

 

He admonished someone for having the temerity to post on this forum when they were claiming to be betting something like £200 per bet or something.

 

What amount per bet is the limit may I ask?

 

Im genuinely fascinated to know.Indeed I'd be very grateful if someone could possibly give me yet more advice on how I should live my life since I'm clearly doing it wrong by wasting my time among the hoi polloi.

 

Let me tell you how I've spent my day so far and perhaps one of you kind sirs could advise me of any areas for improvement .

 

Thanks in advance;

 

9.50 am woken up by postman

went back to bed

11.20 am

got up had coffee read Times headlines,did 6 clues of the Easy cryptic crossword before doing the chess problem.

 

answered emails.

 

watched end of first episode of edge of darkness which I had purchased the night before and fell asleep watching 

 

spent an hour going through my outstanding long term bets on bet365 with a view to cashing some out

 

cashed some out

 

placed some further bets

 

tried 10 minutes of porn but wasn't really in the mood(made mental note to see doctor )

 

read about 50 pages in total of 6 different books on varying subjects

 

more coffee

 

BORED

 

decided it might be time to find out whether the undiscovered geniuses on PL are any closer to finally realising that betting singles on soccer is a mugs game and that betting multiples on long term markets is by far the superior method

 

read a few posts

 

saw something byMPLoius

 

found this.

 

 

Now later on I plan to watch the second episode of edge of darkness,do some much needed tidying up,read some more of my books and ,if I'm finally in the mood ,visit a 20 year old Asian escort .

 

 

See,it seems to little old me that people who win money without having to leave the house tend to have a lot of time on their hands.

 

Not to mention the fact that often the kind of person who prevails at betting is the kind that,as the expression goes I believe,is 'unlucky in love' and thus lives alone.

 

 

But regardless I must say I do find it funny that it's people who apparently havnt won much whose advice is the most preferred on forums such as this?

 

Hmmmm.

 

If I don't respond again it may be because I usually only visit once every few months or so .

 

Honestly you have no idea how many other gambling related sites there are!

 

 

Cheers

Edited March 9, 2016 by moggis

[f0r3st727]

So, I seek for some advice..

I've created a system, which shows:

25% ROI for >2.5 selections

20% ROI for <2.5 selections

 

System was backtested for approximately 10 seasons and created 1150 and 1100 matches (so a total of 2200 approx). Is this good enough or, should I continue to forward test it (though, over 2.5 system provided me 20 points out of 100 staked for period from 1.9. till today draw was breakeven for this period). Please note, this is only statistics, no manual consideration applied. Soccer obviously.

[only1woz]

It depends how much confidence you have in the system. Personally, if really confident in the system, I'd start with small stakes, and review it at the end of the first season or maybe after 6 months if either performing very well or very badly. (to either protect your bank, or maximise your profit. But still, not too much that you can't cope with a losing streak should it occur).

If you are not overly confident in the system, then just forward test it (like I am doing with my Ell Tee Dee thread) to see how it perfoms anf review it after a full season. As long as whichever choice you make, you are disciplined in your approach. Discipline is everything, in my opinion.

That's what I would do. Good luck.

[f0r3st727]

Hehe, true that. Discipline is everything. That is why I want to factor out my own opinion and the whole thing is based on statistics. So, I might even start again a thread with my selections. I am fairly confident with my system, it produces around bet or two per day..

 

@Grex, you are getting competition..

[MPLouis]

Bookie Buster">

On 12/10/2015, 5:09:02, Mr Bookie Buster said:

I've been working on a system myself that is showing appox a 25% profit over 1100 bets. Have been betting reasonably small so far but intend to increase. Will then post the selections on here. 

Looking forward to it