Grex Posted May 10, 2013 Author Share Posted May 10, 2013 Re: Grex's HOMES; 369 bets; +10.7% yield [SIZE=2][FONT=comic sans ms]Four "unofficials" for Sunday... [/FONT][/SIZE] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted May 12, 2013 Author Share Posted May 12, 2013 Re: Grex's HOMES; 369 bets; +10.7% yield [SIZE=2][FONT=comic sans ms]The "unofficials" reverting to the normal end-of-season form....... [/FONT][/SIZE] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted May 17, 2013 Author Share Posted May 17, 2013 Re: Grex's HOMES; 369 bets; +10.7% yield [FONT=comic sans ms][SIZE=2]Three from the Premiership to finish off the season..... [/SIZE][/FONT] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoast Posted June 9, 2013 Share Posted June 9, 2013 Re: Grex's HOMES; 369 bets; +10.7% yield thanks for keeping the thread going grex, great work, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted June 10, 2013 Author Share Posted June 10, 2013 Re: Grex's HOMES; 369 bets; +10.7% yield [SIZE=2][FONT=comic sans ms]My pleaure, Westcoast. The thread more-or-less looks after itself....... it isn't exactly rocket science :p Just realised, I didn't post the final results of the "unofficial" selections for 2012/13. Yet again, the strategy of ignoring the last 6 rounds of games paid dividends, with a negative yield of 12% :loon See you in September.... have a great, relaxing summer :ok [/FONT][/SIZE] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banner Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 Re: Grex's HOMES; 369 bets; +10.7% yield [QUOTE=Grex;2325208][SIZE=2][FONT=comic sans ms]My pleaure, Westcoast. The thread more-or-less looks after itself....... it isn't exactly rocket science :p Just realised, I didn't post the final results of the "unofficial" selections for 2012/13. Yet again, the strategy of ignoring the last 6 rounds of games paid dividends, with a negative yield of 12% :loon See you in September.... have a great, relaxing summer :ok [/FONT][/SIZE] [/QUOTE] Maybe for the last 6 rounds you could change your bet to double chance on the away sides and see how that works out! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted July 25, 2013 Author Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: Grex's HOMES; 369 bets; +10.7% yield [FONT=comic sans ms]Thanks for the suggestion, Banner. In fact, using Away DC would have produced a positive yield of 1.7% on the unofficial selections.... certainly better than the negative yield of 12%. However, it is still way below the overall yield of 10.7%, so I think I will stick with the strategy of ignoring the last six rounds of the season :ok[/FONT] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banner Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: Grex's HOMES; 369 bets; +10.7% yield [QUOTE=Grex;2339261][FONT=comic sans ms]Thanks for the suggestion, Banner. In fact, using Away DC would have produced a positive yield of 1.7% on the unofficial selections.... certainly better than the negative yield of 12%. However, it is still way below the overall yield of 10.7%, so I think I will stick with the strategy of ignoring the last six rounds of the season :ok[/FONT][/QUOTE] I agree haha! What site do you use to pick your teams/Overs each week! Thanks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted July 26, 2013 Author Share Posted July 26, 2013 Re: Grex's HOMES; 369 bets; +10.7% yield [FONT=comic sans ms]Actually, Banner, this is the "Homes" thread. Selections are based on EP/IA home teams with odds of between 1.45 and 1.80 as published by Bet365..... as I have said before, it is a very basic system for brain-deads like me ;) For my other "Overs" thread, the selections are based on a statistical model into which are fed 1X2 odds and O/U odds..... so, there is no particular site used.[/FONT] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Re: Grex's HOMES; 369 bets; +10.7% yield Here's to the new season! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted August 16, 2013 Author Share Posted August 16, 2013 Re: Grex's HOMES; 369 bets; +10.7% yield Thanks, Mglanfield. Yes, I hope it's another profitable season :hope[FONT=comic sans ms] The selections don´t start until after the sixth round..... so the English Premiership will start on 05 October, and Serie A on 06 October[/FONT]. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fakesociedad Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Re: Grex's HOMES; 369 bets; +10.7% yield [QUOTE=Grex;2339613][FONT=comic sans ms]Actually, Banner, this is the "Homes" thread. Selections are based on EP/IA home teams with odds of between 1.45 and 1.80 as published by Bet365..... as I have said before, it is a very basic system for brain-deads like me ;) For my other "Overs" thread, the selections are based on a statistical model into which are fed 1X2 odds and O/U odds..... so, there is no particular site used.[/FONT][/QUOTE] Are you taking out the BPL this year? Its actually quite amazing, I've did quick back test with this for other leagues, and most are near the break even point. So not good enough to back nor good enough to lay. Anyways cheers from Canada Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 3, 2013 Author Share Posted October 3, 2013 Re: Grex's HOMES; 369 bets; +10.7% yield fakesociedad;2360561 [FONT=comic sans ms]Hi, Fakesociedad..... and :welcome to Punters Lounge. Not quite sure what you mean by "BPL". When I did the original back-testing, only the EP and IA stood out...... no logic in this, probably just a statistical "blip". But it seems to be profitable over the past 4 seasons, so I will continue. Both the EP and IA have now played 6 rounds, so this weekend will see the first selections of the 2013/14 season (looks as though there will be three). I have kept an "unofficial" track of the first 6 rounds and, as usual, the results have been poor (that's why I avoid them!!)....... [/FONT] I will post the weekend's selections Friday evening / Saturday morning :ok PS...... my previous image hoster ("imageframe") seems to have disappeared. I am now using Imageshack, and the quality (above) seems to be poor. I will try to improve for the next post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Re: Grex's HOMES; 369 bets; +10.7% yield Good luck for the new season Grex. Will be following with interest as always. Have you ever thought about refining the system to see if you can find a way to pick out those matches in the 1.45 to 1.8 odds range which have the most value? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 3, 2013 Author Share Posted October 3, 2013 Re: Grex's HOMES; 369 bets; +10.7% yield I used "value" in my (now defunct) Overs system...... however, this system is based purely on offered odds. As I have said many times before, this is an uncomplicated system for no-brainers like myself ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Re: Grex's HOMES; 369 bets; +10.7% yield Good to have you back mate :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fakesociedad Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Re: Grex's HOMES; 369 bets; +10.7% yield Oh hi, thanks for the welcome, I was recommended to this thread last year and made some spot plays of your picks, I've just stayed quiet. BPL = Barclays Premier League. There is no such thing as a top flight english league anymore so calling it EPL would be inaccurate given that 69.8% of the league isn't english and the fact that nearly every team is owned by Americans lol. But without brown nosing too much, its more than statistical blip in my opinion. Despite some losing seasons, it makes sense that you would have to pay for wins in a big leagues. Especially once books have a good read on teams a few rounds in. Anyways good luck for the season, will be tailing all the way through win or lose as I need an excuse to watch the BPL brought to you by NBC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 4, 2013 Author Share Posted October 4, 2013 Re: Grex's HOMES; 369 bets; +10.7% yield fakesociedad;2360970 [FONT=comic sans ms]Sorry for being so thick regarding "BPL". I had a suspicion you might be referring to the "British Premier League". in which case we would have had all the Scots, and Northern Irish fuming !! Is the 69.8% a statistical fact? I thought it would have been more..... it seems that nearly every club is owned by either Americans (including by "beloved" Man United) or oil-rich Arabs (including my "less-than-beloved" Man City) [/FONT];)[FONT=comic sans ms] Thanks for the good wishes for the upcoming season. [/FONT]:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 4, 2013 Author Share Posted October 4, 2013 Re: Grex's HOMES; 369 bets; +10.7% yield [FONT=comic sans ms]A bit early..... but here are the first selections for 2013/14. The Tottenham game on Sunday is currently just below the 1.45 threshold - I will keep an eye on it to see if the odds lengthen. [/FONT] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 4, 2013 Author Share Posted October 4, 2013 Re: Grex's HOMES; 369 bets; +10.7% yield Grex;2360681 I have now found ImageFrame...... so, I will re-post the above image with (I hope) better quality :hope [FONT=comic sans ms] [/FONT] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
den-dockx1993 Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Re: Grex's HOMES; 369 bets; +10.7% yield This is a very good thread. I am currently looking at your original staking plan, but I have one question about your staking plan. How do you calculate your stake if the odds and your profit target are given? I am not that good in maths, so I find it quite difficult to develop a formula to calculate this. It is also a bit too much work to calculate everything with a trial-and-error strategy. Thanks in advance! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Re: Grex's HOMES; 369 bets; +10.7% yield Hi Grex well done so far, always keeping an eye on this .... one question... are you giving anything away on your staking strategy for the X-Stake (nearly wrote X Factor). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
babushka Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 Re: Grex's HOMES; 369 bets; +10.7% yield Hi Grex, big respect for your work so far. I am with your system nearly from the beginning. What about today's Udinese-Cagliari ? Udine is now for 1.8 bet365. Do you only consider odds one day before the game? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 7, 2013 Author Share Posted October 7, 2013 Re: Grex's HOMES; 369 bets; +10.7% yield den-dockx1993;2361011 [FONT=comic sans ms]Hi, Den-dockx.... and :welcome to Punters Lounge. Regarding the calculation of stake..... Profit target = Y Odds = Z (decimal format) Stake = X, then..... X = Y / (Z-1) For example.... Profit target = 10 units, odds = 1.8, then.... Stake = 10 / (1.8-1.0) = 10 / 0.8 = 12.50 If you have a basic knowledge of Excel, then it can do all the maths for you :ok[/FONT] [QUOTE=Xtc12;2361049]Hi Grex well done so far, always keeping an eye on this .... one question... are you giving anything away on your staking strategy for the X-Stake (nearly wrote X Factor).[/QUOTE] Yes, I almost used "X Factor" when I introduced the staking system, but it sounded a bit naff :p. The X-Stakes system was introduced in October 2012 (see page 29, post #1128). By testing previous performance, there was a relationship between profit and odds for both EP and IA..... in fact the nearer you got to the upper cut-off of 1.8, the better the return. So the system is based on empirical formulae reflecting the odds, and the relative performance of the leagues (IA out-performs the EP, and so gets a higher weighting). Hope this makes sense ;) [QUOTE=babushka;2361908]Hi Grex, big respect for your work so far. I am with your system nearly from the beginning. What about today's Udinese-Cagliari ? Udine is now for 1.8 bet365. Do you only consider odds one day before the game?[/QUOTE] The system was developed on data from football-data.co.uk. The odds are published at approx. 5.00pm on Friday for weekend games, and 3.00pm on Tuesday for mid-week fixtures. Therefore, to be consistent, the system does not take into account any subsequent change in odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 7, 2013 Author Share Posted October 7, 2013 Re: Grex's HOMES; 369 bets; +10.7% yield [FONT=comic sans ms]It's always nice to have a winning start to the season...... 3 out of 3 :loon Parma looked a bit doubtful at half-time..... 1-1 and Parma down to 10 men. But they came through 3-1 :ok Due to the internationals, the next selections will not be until 18 October. [/FONT] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 18, 2013 Author Share Posted October 18, 2013 Re: Grex's HOMES; 372 bets; +11.2% yield [FONT=comic sans ms]Four selections for Saturday. Unusual to see Man United in there at such long odds against a team outside the "Big 4-5"...... but I suppose it's a sign of the times :\ [/FONT] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 18, 2013 Author Share Posted October 18, 2013 Re: Grex's HOMES; 372 bets; +11.2% yield Sorry, the image in the previous post is not easy to read. I post it again (no changes, of course!) No better :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 19, 2013 Author Share Posted October 19, 2013 Re: Grex's HOMES; 372 bets; +11.2% yield [QUOTE=Grex;2365673][FONT=comic sans ms]Unusual to see Man United in there at such long odds against a team outside the "Big 4-5"...... but I suppose it's a sign of the times :\ [/FONT][QUOTE][FONT=comic sans ms] [/FONT][FONT=comic sans ms]...... and it produced the first failure of the season :@ [/FONT]] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 25, 2013 Author Share Posted October 25, 2013 Re: Grex's HOMES; 376 bets; +11.3% yield [FONT=comic sans ms]Just the two this weekend.... both from the EP. [/FONT][FONT=comic sans ms] [/FONT] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
babushka Posted October 26, 2013 Share Posted October 26, 2013 Re: Grex's HOMES; 376 bets; +11.3% yield I've got one little question... Does it count to your system if for example Lazio (vs Cagliari) is now for 1,83 in bet365 but Lazio in Asian handicap -0,5 is for 1,875 ? Do you consider bigger odds in Asians -0,5? It is still the same bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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