Grex Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 220 bets +8% yield Three winners.... does anybody know why the Bologna - Roma game was abandoned ?? [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] OVERS[/SIZE] No. Date LGE H Team A Team >2.5 Odds Stake W/L Return Bank Yield >3.5 odds W/L Return Bank Yield 100.00 100.00 72 26/01/2011 EP Liverpool 10 Fulham 2.18 10.00 L -10.00 213.50 16% 3.80 L -10.00 378.31 39% 73 30/01/2011 IA Cagliari 21 Bari 2.27 10.00 W 12.70 226.20 17% 4.33 L -10.00 368.31 37% 74 30/01/2011 IA Napoli 40 Sampdoria 2.20 10.00 W 12.00 238.20 19% 4.20 W 32.00 400.31 41% UNDERS No. Date LGE H Team A Team <2.5 Odds Stake W/L Return Bank Yield 100.00 146 24/01/2011 EP Bolton 04 Chelsea 2.04 10.00 L -10.00 180.60 6% 147 25/01/2011 EP Blackpool 23 Man United 2.51 10.00 L -10.00 170.60 5% 148 25/01/2011 EC Portsmouth 12 Burnley 1.97 10.00 L -10.00 160.60 4% OVERALL (not including >3.5)[/COLOR] 149 29/01/2011 EC Crystal Palace 00 Norwich 1.86 10.00 W 8.60 169.20 5% BETS223 150 30/01/2011 IA Bologna PP Roma 1.87 10.00 YIELD[SIZE=1]9%[COLOR=#000080] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betting-place Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 223 bets +9% yield I heard it was cause of snow and terrible pitch Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 223 bets +9% yield Thanks, Betting-Place..... the game was quoted as "abandoned" rather than "postponed", so it must have started. But Pinnacle returned my stake, so it is obviously void. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 223 bets +9% yield And the mid-week specials.... [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] OVERS[/SIZE]No. Date LGE H Team A Team >2.5 Odds Stake W/L Return Bank Yield >3.5 odds W/L Return Bank Yield 100.00 100.00 73 30/01/2011 IA Cagliari 21 Bari 2.27 10.00 W 12.70 226.20 17% 4.33 L -10.00 368.31 37% 74 30/01/2011 IA Napoli 40 Sampdoria 2.20 10.00 W 12.00 238.20 19% 4.20 W 32.00 400.31 41% 75 01/02/2011 EC Middlesbrough Scunthorpe 1.86 10.00 3.20 76 01/02/2011 EC QPR Scunthorpe 1.86 10.00 3.25 77 02/02/2011 IA Parma Lecce 2.12 10.00 4.00 78 02/02/2011 EP Fulham Newcastle 2.25 10.00 4.33 UNDERSNo.DateLGEH TeamA Team<2.5 OddsStakeW/L Return Bank Yield 100.00 149 29/01/2011 EC Crystal Palace 00 Norwich 1.86 10.00 W 8.60 169.20 5% 150 01/02/2011 EC Doncaster Burnley 2.00 10.00 151 01/02/2011 EC Norwich Millwall 1.95 10.00 152 01/02/2011 EC Watford Crystal Palace 2.05 10.00 153 01/02/2011 EP Man United Aston Villa 2.40 10.00 OVERALL (not including >3.5)[/COLOR] 154 02/02/2011 EP Blackpool West Ham 2.12 10.00 BETS223 155 03/02/2011 IA Bari Inter 2.00 10.00 YIELD[SIZE=1]9%[COLOR=#000080] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 223 bets +9% yield Spotted a typo for No.75/76.. Scunthorpe appears twice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 223 bets +9% yield relf;1863923 As always, you are right Relf. Glad somebody looks at these selections ;) [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] It should read.... QPR v Portsmouth :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 223 bets +9% yield Bad so far for mid-week.... let's hope for an improvement on Wednesday / Thursday :hope [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] OVERS[/SIZE]No.DateLGEH TeamA Team>2.5 OddsStakeW/LReturnBankYield>3.5 oddsW/LReturnBank Yield 100.00 100.00 73 30/01/2011 IA Cagliari 21 Bari 2.27 10.00 W 12.70 226.20 17% 4.33 L -10.00 368.31 37% 74 30/01/2011 IA Napoli 40 Sampdoria 2.20 10.00 W 12.00 238.20 19% 4.20 W 32.00 400.31 41% 75 01/02/2011 EC Middlesbrough 20 Scunthorpe 1.86 10.00 L -10.00 228.20 17% 3.20 L -10.00 390.31 39% 76 01/02/2011 EC QPR 20 Portsmouth 1.86 10.00 L -10.00 218.20 16% 3.25 L -10.00 380.31 37% 77 02/02/2011 IA Parma Lecce 2.12 10.00 4.00 78 02/02/2011 EP Fulham Newcastle 2.25 10.00 4.33 UNDERS No. Date LGE H Team A Team <2.5 Odds Stake W/L Return Bank Yield 100.00 149 29/01/2011 EC Crystal Palace 00 Norwich 1.86 10.00 W 8.60 169.20 5% 150 01/02/2011 EC Doncaster 10 Burnley 2.00 10.00 W 10.00 179.20 5% 151 01/02/2011 EC Norwich 21 Millwall 1.95 10.00 L -10.00 169.20 5% 152 01/02/2011 EC Watford 11 Crystal Palace 2.05 10.00 W 10.50 179.70 5% 153 01/02/2011 EP Man United 31 Aston Villa 2.40 10.00 L -10.00 169.70 5% OVERALL (not including >3.5)[/COLOR] 154 02/02/2011 EP Blackpool West Ham 2.12 10.00 BETS229 155 03/02/2011 IA Bari Inter 2.00 10.00 YIELD[SIZE=1]8%[COLOR=#000080] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money1989 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 229 bets +8% yield You are going well. 8% yield(you started with 100pts and you are at 200+pts, over 100 pts profit) is very good. You managed to get your bank doubled in such a short time :) continue the good work..and make it real..with real money Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 229 bets +8% yield Thanks, Money1989 (I bet you're 21/22 years old) ;)..... and :welcome to Punters Lounge. [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] As I have said many times before.... I never bet.... it's a mug's game :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money1989 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 229 bets +8% yield [B][FONT=Book Antiqua][SIZE=3]Yes, i'm 21, u can see it from the info about me :) Get out from the fog, get the money out from the wallet and start betting for REAL :) btw what do you say for betting on more goals in second half? I was thinking about it today..odds are great(2.00 here in local bookies) and like i see you are "goals" bettor and i need that kind of bettors for advice p.s.Today u r against me and the whole public about West Ham :)[/SIZE][/FONT][/B] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lardonio Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 229 bets +8% yield I really wonder what system factors produced the 'under' bet in the Blackpool match as Blackpool has 100% Over-rate at home and West Ham had more overs than unders away as well. Historical data? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 229 bets +8% yield Hi, Lardonio.... the system is based on the comparative strength of the two teams and the theoretical value of the O/U odds. Previous O/U performance of the 2 teams doesn't come into the equation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 229 bets +8% yield Talk about kicking a man when he's down.... after a miserable mid-week, it looked as though we were at least going to finish with a winner. Bari - Inter was 0-1 after 90'.... but then ****ing Inter scored 2 more goals after 90+4' and 90+6' :wall:wall:wall [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] Unbelievable. I am rapidly losing incentive to continue this system :\ [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] OVERS[/SIZE]No.DateLGE H Team A Team >2.5 Odds Stake W/L Return Bank Yield >3.5 odds W/L Return Bank Yield 100.00 100.00 73 30/01/2011 IA Cagliari 21 Bari 2.27 10.00 W 12.70 226.20 17% 4.33 L -10.00 368.31 37% 74 30/01/2011 IA Napoli 40 Sampdoria 2.20 10.00 W 12.00 238.20 19% 4.20 W 32.00 400.31 41% 75 01/02/2011 EC Middlesbrough 20 Scunthorpe 1.86 10.00 L -10.00 228.20 17% 3.20 L -10.00 390.31 39% 76 01/02/2011 EC QPR 20 Portsmouth 1.86 10.00 L -10.00 218.20 16% 3.25 L -10.00 380.31 37% 77 02/02/2011 IA Parma 00 Lecce 2.12 10.00 L -10.00 208.20 14% 4.00 L -10.00 370.31 35% 78 02/02/2011 EP Fulham 00 Newcastle 2.25 10.00 L -10.00 198.20 13% 4.33 L -10.00 360.31 33% UNDERS No. Date LGE H Team A Team <2.5 Odds Stake W/L Return Bank Yield 100.00 149 29/01/2011 EC Crystal Palace 00 Norwich 1.86 10.00 W 8.60 169.20 5% 150 01/02/2011 EC Doncaster 10 Burnley 2.00 10.00 W 10.00 179.20 5% 151 01/02/2011 EC Norwich 21 Millwall 1.95 10.00 L -10.00 169.20 5% 152 01/02/2011 EC Watford 11 Crystal Palace 2.05 10.00 W 10.50 179.70 5% 153 01/02/2011 EP Man United 31 Aston Villa 2.40 10.00 L -10.00 169.70 5% OVERALL (not including >3.5)[/COLOR] 154 02/02/2011 EP Blackpool 13 West Ham 2.12 10.00 L -10.00 159.70 4% BETS233 155 03/02/2011 IA Bari 03 Inter 2.00 10.00 L -10.00 149.70 3% YIELD[SIZE=1]6%[COLOR=#000080] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goalies_are_different Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 233 bets +6% yield Don't give up! Your system is an inspiration for the masses. Talking about Bari and Inter, I had a bet on the Under 1.5...:wall:wall:wall Greedy enough not to hedge it. :wall:wall:wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 233 bets +6% yield Thanks for the encouraging words, Goalie. [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] In situations like these, the :wall emoticon is priceless :tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goalies_are_different Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 233 bets +6% yield I am very much interested in Under/Over markets, and I sometimes double check my predictions with your picks. In my opinion U/O markets get more and more efficient at the end of the season as there is now solid stats behind every team, that's probably why your results are starting to decline. However, I hope I am wrong and your system bounce back in steady profits. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fearthainn Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 233 bets +6% yield Don't give up, your systems are among the most interesting on the forum. If it was me I would stick with it until the end of the season at least, as even if it doesn't pick up perhaps you can look at it from other angles after a full season of live testing, maybe dropping the unders as you have mentioned before and focusing on the overs etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lardonio Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 229 bets +8% yield Grex;1865914 Interesting, thanks for the reply. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 233 bets +6% yield Fearthainn;1866103 Actually if one were to look at the >3.5 yield, it's very impressive. Like what Fearthainn said, you might want to investigate further on the Overs, while keeping the Unders as a paper trial and see what it brings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 233 bets +6% yield Thanks for the words of encouragement and for the advice, lads. My comment in post #283 was mainly a "knee-jerk" reaction to the two added-time goals by Inter. [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] Of course I will continue. The measure of a good system is one that continues season after season with positive yield. I will continue with the "unders"..... although with a current yield of only 3%, you would be better off putting your money in a long-term savings account (I know, Relf... not for you, with interest rates of 0.00001% ;)). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiChi92 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 233 bets +6% yield Hi Grex, Maybe the question has already been answered before but based on your back tests what kind of ROI are you trying to achieve ? What are the biggest drawdowns in the previous seasons ? When you say it is based on comparative strength you mean that you determine theoritical odds directly from a difference of rating/ranking etc between the two teams ? Funny you don't take into consideration historical O/U stats for the two team. gl for the rest of the season !:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 233 bets +6% yield [quote=Grex;1866240]Thanks for the words of encouragement and for the advice, lads. My comment in post #283 was mainly a "knee-jerk" reaction to the two added-time goals by Inter. Of course I will continue. The measure of a good system is one that continues season after season with positive yield. I will continue with the "unders"..... although with a current yield of only 3%, you would be better off putting your money in a long-term savings account (I know, Relf... not for you, with interest rates of 0.00001% ;)).[/quote] Hehe! Going a little off-topic, I was looking at some championship bets and realized there are some potentially 'interest bets'. Dortmund has a 11-point lead over the rest of the pack with 14 games left, and they are priced 1.14 to win the league at Bet365. Then again, things could get unpredictable in Germany. In Spain, Barcelona has a 7-point lead over Real Madrid. Considering they have only dropped 5 points in 21 matches so far, it's not hard to see why they are priced at 1.10 to win the league at Bet365. Talk about 14% and 10% yields for 'savings'. :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 233 bets +6% yield Let's hope for a few more "W"s this weekend. [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] OVERS[/SIZE]No.DateLGE H Team A Team >2.5 Odds Stake W/L Return Bank Yield >3.5 odds W/L Return Bank Yield 100.00 100.00 75 01/02/2011 EC Middlesbrough 20 Scunthorpe 1.86 10.00 L -10.00 228.20 17% 3.20 L -10.00 390.31 39% 76 01/02/2011 EC QPR 20 Portsmouth 1.86 10.00 L -10.00 218.20 16% 3.25 L -10.00 380.31 37% 77 02/02/2011 IA Parma 00 Lecce 2.12 10.00 L -10.00 208.20 14% 4.00 L -10.00 370.31 35% 78 02/02/2011 EP Fulham 00 Newcastle 2.25 10.00 L -10.00 198.20 13% 4.33 L -10.00 360.31 33% 79 05/02/2011 EP Stoke Sunderland 2.44 10.00 4.55 80 05/02/2011 EP Aston Villa Fulham 2.17 10.00 4.20 81 05/02/2011 IA Cagliari Juventus 2.11 10.00 3.80 82 06/02/2011 IA Lazio Chievo 2.33 10.00 4.20 83 06/02/2011 IA Napoli Cesena 1.85 10.00 3.12 UNDERS No. Date LGE H Team A Team <2.5 Odds Stake W/L Return Bank Yield 100.00 150 01/02/2011 EC Doncaster 10 Burnley 2.00 10.00 W 10.00 179.20 5% 151 01/02/2011 EC Norwich 21 Millwall 1.95 10.00 L -10.00 169.20 5% 152 01/02/2011 EC Watford 11 Crystal Palace 2.05 10.00 W 10.50 179.70 5% 153 01/02/2011 EP Man United 31 Aston Villa 2.40 10.00 L -10.00 169.70 5% 154 02/02/2011 EP Blackpool 13 West Ham 2.12 10.00 L -10.00 159.70 4% 155 03/02/2011 IA Bari 03 Inter 2.00 10.00 L -10.00 149.70 3% 156 05/02/2011 EP Man City West Brom 2.38 10.00 157 05/02/2011 EP Newcastle Arsenal 2.10 10.00 158 05/02/2011 EP Wolves Man United 2.08 10.00 159 05/02/2011 EC Burnley Norwich 2.05 10.00 OVERALL (not including >3.5)[/COLOR] 160 05/02/2011 EC Portsmouth Derby 1.97 10.00 BETS233 161 05/02/2011 EC Preston Bristol City 1.97 10.00 YIELD[SIZE=1]6%[COLOR=#000080] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 233 bets +6% yield :hope for your selections! Perhaps you might be luckier if you do 10-minute updates. Hehe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WillWallace Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 233 bets +6% yield Hey folks, hope you had a good start in the weekend. I know how hard it is to continue with a system thatis struggeling.:spank So i uploaded a graph of my system, i always feel better if i have an eye on this graph seeing the trend that shows so far consistently increasing profit. Pure psychological thing, but a small trick to stay motivated in downswings that hurts. Lost 40 Units within 7 days on a staking system that includes a 10/10 units system with betting 5 units on odds under 2 and a formula 5/(odds-1) to reach always 5 units on odds above 2. So this downswing was really incredible. Hope this helps you a bit to continue doing hard work for this forum, i always enjoy it to see people doing smth for a community. btw: Dublin comes closer anyone from ireland here who can give me a few hints?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 233 bets +6% yield Thanks for the "graphic", Mr. Wallace. I actually do the same for my system, but unfortunately I can't remember how to transfer it into a post. :$ Perhaps you can help. [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] The 40 unit downswing that you experienced must have been disheartening.... but congratulations for keeping it going. You are definitely on an upswing at the moment. Have you ever considered sharing your O/U system on this Forum ?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 233 bets +6% yield [quote=relf;1866904]:hope for your selections! Perhaps you might be luckier if you do 10-minute updates. Hehe.[/quote] I am actually going to have to do some work this weekend... so, I will be struggling to do even full-time updates :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
averick Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 233 bets +6% yield One sure-fire way I know of would be to upload a screenshot of the graph and insert it into your post. Anyway keep going mate, I do put some money on these and have never lost faith for one moment:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 233 bets +6% yield [quote=ChiChi92;1866355]Hi Grex, Maybe the question has already been answered before but based on your back tests what kind of ROI are you trying to achieve ? What are the biggest drawdowns in the previous seasons ? When you say it is based on comparative strength you mean that you determine theoritical odds directly from a difference of rating/ranking etc between the two teams ? Funny you don't take into consideration historical O/U stats for the two team. gl for the rest of the season !:hope[/quote] Sorry for the late reply, ChiChi. The ROI (yield) that the system achieved during back-testing was in the region of 9%-10%. So, the "live" performance is more-or-less the same. The disheartening thing is that it was performing way above expectations until a month ago.... and now I suppose it is simply reverting to the statistical "norm". [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] Yes, the system is based on comparative ratings for the two opposing teams. When I was doing the back-testing, I found that the previous O/U performance of a team had no influence on the outcome of its next match, so I didn't take this element into account. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 233 bets +6% yield [quote=averick;1867158]One sure-fire way I know of would be to upload a screenshot of the graph and insert it into your post. Anyway keep going mate, I do put some money on these and have never lost faith for one moment:ok[/quote] Thanks, Averick..... but I am afraid you are dealing with a real dim-wit when it comes to computers (except for my big buddy Excel, of course)... can you explain how I "upload a screenshot" :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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