Grex Posted November 1, 2010 Author Share Posted November 1, 2010 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) Monday night's "unders" selection was not helped by West Brom being reduced to 9 players after 30 minutes. So the overall yield continues to decline :\ [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] No. Date LGE H Team A Team Bet Odds Stake W/L Return Bank Yield 1,000.00 81 30/10/2010 EP Fulham 20 Wigan O 2.17 10.00 L -10.00 1,058.40 7% 82 30/10/2010 EP Man United 20 Tottenham U 2.39 10.00 W 13.90 1,072.30 9% 83 30/10/2010 EC Leicester 10 Preston U 2.09 10.00 W 10.90 1,083.20 10% 84 30/10/2010 EC Portsmouth 21 Nottm Forest U 1.88 10.00 L -10.00 1,073.20 9% 85 30/10/2010 EC QPR 11 Burnley U 2.02 10.00 W 10.20 1,083.40 10% 86 30/10/2010 EC Reading 43 Doncaster O 1.93 10.00 W 9.30 1,092.70 11% 87 30/10/2010 EC Barnsley 11 Hull U 1.94 10.00 W 9.40 1,102.10 12% 88 30/10/2010 E1 Peterborough 03 Brighton U 2.08 10.00 L -10.00 1,092.10 10% 89 31/10/2010 EP Aston Villa 00 Birmingham O 2.20 10.00 L -10.00 1,082.10 9% 90 01/11/2010 EP Blackpool 21 West Brom U 2.16 10.00 L -10.00 1,072.10 8% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 4, 2010 Author Share Posted November 4, 2010 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) This week, I have to post early.... and it has produced an amazing number of selections - 12 :loon. I'm not sure whether this is because I have had to take the early odds, whereas the system was developed based on "24 hour-before-kick-off" odds. Shall we see :hope [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] [/SIZE]No.DateLGEH TeamA TeamBetOddsStakeW/LReturn[SIZE=1]Bank Yield 1,000.00 81 30/10/2010 EP Fulham 20 Wigan O 2.17 10.00 L -10.00 1,058.40 7% 82 30/10/2010 EP Man United 20 Tottenham U 2.39 10.00 W 13.90 1,072.30 9% 83 30/10/2010 EC Leicester 10 Preston U 2.09 10.00 W 10.90 1,083.20 10% 84 30/10/2010 EC Portsmouth 21 Nottm Forest U 1.88 10.00 L -10.00 1,073.20 9% 85 30/10/2010 EC QPR 11 Burnley U 2.02 10.00 W 10.20 1,083.40 10% 86 30/10/2010 EC Reading 43 Doncaster O 1.93 10.00 W 9.30 1,092.70 11% 87 30/10/2010 EC Barnsley 11 Hull U 1.94 10.00 W 9.40 1,102.10 12% 88 30/10/2010 E1 Peterborough 03 Brighton U 2.08 10.00 L -10.00 1,092.10 10% 89 31/10/2010 EP Aston Villa 00 Birmingham O 2.20 10.00 L -10.00 1,082.10 9% 90 01/11/2010 EP Blackpool 21 West Brom U 2.16 10.00 L -10.00 1,072.10 8% 91 06/11/2010 EP Birmingham West Ham O 2.27 10.00 92 06/11/2010 EP Blackpool Everton U 2.05 10.00 93 06/11/2010 EP Fulham Aston Villa O 2.33 10.00 94 06/11/2010 EP Sunderland Stoke O 2.46 10.00 95 06/11/2010 EC Barnsley Leicester U 1.99 10.00 96 06/11/2010 EC Bristol City Preston U 2.06 10.00 97 06/11/2010 EC Coventry Leeds U 2.05 10.00 98 06/11/2010 EC Hull Scunthorpe U 2.09 10.00 99 06/11/2010 EC Norwich Burnley U 1.87 10.00 100 06/11/2010 EC QPR Reading O 1.96 10.00 101 06/11/2010 EC Watford Nottm Forest U 2.00 10.00 102 06/11/2010 EC Derby Portsmouth U 2.07 10.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 7, 2010 Author Share Posted November 7, 2010 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) A fair set of results, with over 20% return on the day..... [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] No. Date LGE H Team A Team Bet Odds Stake W/L Return Bank Yield 1,000.00 81 30/10/2010 EP Fulham 20 Wigan O 2.17 10.00 L -10.00 1,058.40 7% 82 30/10/2010 EP Man United 20 Tottenham U 2.39 10.00 W 13.90 1,072.30 9% 83 30/10/2010 EC Leicester 10 Preston U 2.09 10.00 W 10.90 1,083.20 10% 84 30/10/2010 EC Portsmouth 21 Nottm Forest U 1.88 10.00 L -10.00 1,073.20 9% 85 30/10/2010 EC QPR 11 Burnley U 2.02 10.00 W 10.20 1,083.40 10% 86 30/10/2010 EC Reading 43 Doncaster O 1.93 10.00 W 9.30 1,092.70 11% 87 30/10/2010 EC Barnsley 11 Hull U 1.94 10.00 W 9.40 1,102.10 12% 88 30/10/2010 E1 Peterborough 03 Brighton U 2.08 10.00 L -10.00 1,092.10 10% 89 31/10/2010 EP Aston Villa 00 Birmingham O 2.20 10.00 L -10.00 1,082.10 9% 90 01/11/2010 EP Blackpool 21 West Brom U 2.16 10.00 L -10.00 1,072.10 8% 91 06/11/2010 EP Birmingham 22 West Ham O 2.27 10.00 W 12.70 1,084.80 9% 92 06/11/2010 EP Blackpool 22 Everton U 2.05 10.00 L -10.00 1,074.80 8% 93 06/11/2010 EP Fulham 11 Aston Villa O 2.33 10.00 L -10.00 1,064.80 7% 94 06/11/2010 EP Sunderland 20 Stoke O 2.46 10.00 L -10.00 1,054.80 6% 95 06/11/2010 EC Barnsley 02 Leicester U 1.99 10.00 W 9.90 1,064.70 7% 96 06/11/2010 EC Bristol City 11 Preston U 2.06 10.00 W 10.60 1,075.30 8% 97 06/11/2010 EC Coventry 23 Leeds U 2.05 10.00 L -10.00 1,065.30 7% 98 06/11/2010 EC Hull 01 Scunthorpe U 2.09 10.00 W 10.90 1,076.20 8% 99 06/11/2010 EC Norwich 22 Burnley U 1.87 10.00 L -10.00 1,066.20 7% 100 06/11/2010 EC QPR 31 Reading O 1.96 10.00 W 9.60 1,075.80 8% 101 06/11/2010 EC Watford 11 Nottm Forest U 2.00 10.00 W 10.00 1,085.80 8% 102 06/11/2010 EC Derby 20 Portsmouth U 2.07 10.00 W 10.70 1,096.50 9% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 8, 2010 Author Share Posted November 8, 2010 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) SIX for Tuesday evening........:hope No. Date LGE H Team A Team Bet Odds Stake W/L Return Bank Yield 1,000.00 91 06/11/2010 EP Birmingham 22 West Ham O 2.27 10.00 W 12.70 1,084.80 9% 92 06/11/2010 EP Blackpool 22 Everton U 2.05 10.00 L -10.00 1,074.80 8% 93 06/11/2010 EP Fulham 11 Aston Villa O 2.33 10.00 L -10.00 1,064.80 7% 94 06/11/2010 EP Sunderland 20 Stoke O 2.46 10.00 L -10.00 1,054.80 6% 95 06/11/2010 EC Barnsley 02 Leicester U 1.99 10.00 W 9.90 1,064.70 7% 96 06/11/2010 EC Bristol City 11 Preston U 2.06 10.00 W 10.60 1,075.30 8% 97 06/11/2010 EC Coventry 23 Leeds U 2.05 10.00 L -10.00 1,065.30 7% 98 06/11/2010 EC Hull 01 Scunthorpe U 2.09 10.00 W 10.90 1,076.20 8% 99 06/11/2010 EC Norwich 22 Burnley U 1.87 10.00 L -10.00 1,066.20 7% 100 06/11/2010 EC QPR 31 Reading O 1.96 10.00 W 9.60 1,075.80 8% 101 06/11/2010 EC Watford 11 Nottm Forest U 2.00 10.00 W 10.00 1,085.80 8% 102 06/11/2010 EC Derby 20 Portsmouth U 2.07 10.00 W 10.70 1,096.50 9% 103 09/11/2010 EP Stoke Birmingham O 2.35 10.00 104 09/11/2010 EC Burnley Doncaster U 2.08 10.00 105 09/11/2010 EC Leeds Hull O 1.94 10.00 106 09/11/2010 EC Portsmouth QPR U 1.89 10.00 107 09/11/2010 EC Scunthorpe Middlesbrough U 1.98 10.00 108 09/11/2010 EC Crystal Palace Watford U 2.01 10.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 9, 2010 Author Share Posted November 9, 2010 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) An excellent evening for the system.... 5 out of 6 :ok. Let's hope tomorrow's selections produce the same rate of success :hope [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] [/SIZE]No.DateLGEH Team [SIZE=1]A Team Bet Odds Stake W/L Return Bank Yield 1,000.00 103 09/11/2010 EP Stoke 32 Birmingham O 2.35 10.00 W 13.50 1,110.00 11% 104 09/11/2010 EC Burnley 11 Doncaster U 2.08 10.00 W 10.80 1,120.80 12% 105 09/11/2010 EC Leeds 22 Hull O 1.94 10.00 W 9.40 1,130.20 12% 106 09/11/2010 EC Portsmouth 11 QPR U 1.89 10.00 W 8.90 1,139.10 13% 107 09/11/2010 EC Scunthorpe 02 Middlesbrough U 1.98 10.00 W 9.80 1,148.90 14% 108 09/11/2010 EC Crystal Palace 32 Watford U 2.01 10.00 L -10.00 1,138.90 13% 109 10/11/2010 EP Wolves Arsenal U 2.10 10.00 110 10/11/2010 EC Aston Villa Blackburn U 2.37 10.00 111 10/11/2010 EC Chelsea Fulham U 2.48 10.00 112 10/11/2010 EC Reading Cardiff U 1.96 10.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 10, 2010 Author Share Posted November 10, 2010 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) Sorry.... I made an error in the selections for today.... Aston Villa are, in fact, playing Blackpool, not Blackburn :$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 10, 2010 Author Share Posted November 10, 2010 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) Grex;1809099 Well, not quite.... 3 out of 4. Still, a VERY good mid-week, with a return of 68% over the 10 selections....... [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] [/SIZE]No.DateLGEH Team [SIZE=1]A Team Bet Odds Stake W/L Return Bank Yield 1,000.00 103 09/11/2010 EP Stoke 32 Birmingham O 2.35 10.00 W 13.50 1,110.00 11% 104 09/11/2010 EC Burnley 11 Doncaster U 2.08 10.00 W 10.80 1,120.80 12% 105 09/11/2010 EC Leeds 22 Hull O 1.94 10.00 W 9.40 1,130.20 12% 106 09/11/2010 EC Portsmouth 11 QPR U 1.89 10.00 W 8.90 1,139.10 13% 107 09/11/2010 EC Scunthorpe 02 Middlesbrough U 1.98 10.00 W 9.80 1,148.90 14% 108 09/11/2010 EC Crystal Palace 32 Watford U 2.01 10.00 L -10.00 1,138.90 13% 109 10/11/2010 EP Wolves 02 Arsenal U 2.10 10.00 W 11.00 1,149.90 14% 110 10/11/2010 EP Aston Villa 32 Blackpool U 2.37 10.00 L -10.00 1,139.90 13% 111 10/11/2010 EP Chelsea 10 Fulham U 2.48 10.00 W 14.80 1,154.70 14% 112 10/11/2010 EC Reading 11 Cardiff U 1.96 10.00 W 9.60 1,164.30 15% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted November 11, 2010 Share Posted November 11, 2010 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) Great stuff mate, looking good!:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 12, 2010 Author Share Posted November 12, 2010 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) Thanks, Bedlam :ok [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] There is one selection for this evening...... I will post Saturday's selections later tonight. [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] [/SIZE]No.DateLGEH TeamA TeamBetOddsStakeW/L[SIZE=1]Return Bank Yield 1,000.00 103 09/11/2010 EP Stoke 32 Birmingham O 2.35 10.00 W 13.50 1,110.00 11% 104 09/11/2010 EC Burnley 11 Doncaster U 2.08 10.00 W 10.80 1,120.80 12% 105 09/11/2010 EC Leeds 22 Hull O 1.94 10.00 W 9.40 1,130.20 12% 106 09/11/2010 EC Portsmouth 11 QPR U 1.89 10.00 W 8.90 1,139.10 13% 107 09/11/2010 EC Scunthorpe 02 Middlesbrough U 1.98 10.00 W 9.80 1,148.90 14% 108 09/11/2010 EC Crystal Palace 32 Watford U 2.01 10.00 L -10.00 1,138.90 13% 109 10/11/2010 EP Wolves 02 Arsenal U 2.10 10.00 W 11.00 1,149.90 14% 110 10/11/2010 EP Aston Villa 32 Blackpool U 2.37 10.00 L -10.00 1,139.90 13% 111 10/11/2010 EP Chelsea 10 Fulham U 2.48 10.00 W 14.80 1,154.70 14% 112 10/11/2010 EC Reading 11 Cardiff U 1.96 10.00 W 9.60 1,164.30 15% 113 12/11/2010 EC Preston Hull U 2.02 10.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 12, 2010 Author Share Posted November 12, 2010 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) Always nice to start the weekend with a WIN :ok [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] Anyway, I have some bad news, and some good news. The bad news is that I am dropping English League 1 from the system... it doesn't throw up very many selections (8 out of 112 so far) and the performance is negative (3 wins out of 8 selections). But the GOOD NEWS is that I have looked at some additional leagues and the one that stands out during back-testing is.... wait for it...... yes, it's our old friend, Italy's Serie A :loon [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] [/FONT][FONT=Comic Sans MS]I know that in the past I have ridiculed Serie A for its blatant "fixing" of results towards the end of a season but, on the other hand, it continues to perform quite well in the "Short-priced Home Favourites" thread. So, let's give it a go…. I may live to regret it ;) [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] This Saturday/Sunday there are 7 selections (including one from Serie A). Surprisingly, 5 out of the 7 are "overs", which bucks the recent trend….. shall we see… :hope [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] [/SIZE]No.DateLGEH TeamA TeamBetOddsStakeW/LReturnBank[SIZE=1]Yield 1,000.00 103 09/11/2010 EP Stoke 32 Birmingham O 2.35 10.00 W 13.50 1,110.00 11% 104 09/11/2010 EC Burnley 11 Doncaster U 2.08 10.00 W 10.80 1,120.80 12% 105 09/11/2010 EC Leeds 22 Hull O 1.94 10.00 W 9.40 1,130.20 12% 106 09/11/2010 EC Portsmouth 11 QPR U 1.89 10.00 W 8.90 1,139.10 13% 107 09/11/2010 EC Scunthorpe 02 Middlesbrough U 1.98 10.00 W 9.80 1,148.90 14% 108 09/11/2010 EC Crystal Palace 32 Watford U 2.01 10.00 L -10.00 1,138.90 13% 109 10/11/2010 EP Wolves 02 Arsenal U 2.10 10.00 W 11.00 1,149.90 14% 110 10/11/2010 EP Aston Villa 32 Blackpool U 2.37 10.00 L -10.00 1,139.90 13% 111 10/11/2010 EP Chelsea 10 Fulham U 2.48 10.00 W 14.80 1,154.70 14% 112 10/11/2010 EC Reading 11 Cardiff U 1.96 10.00 W 9.60 1,164.30 15% 113 12/11/2010 EC Preston 02 Hull U 2.02 10.00 W 10.20 1,174.50 15% 114 13/11/2010 EP West Ham Blackpool U 2.31 10.00 115 13/11/2010 EC Crystal Palace Coventry U 1.96 10.00 116 13/11/2010 EC Ipswich Barnsley O 1.90 10.00 117 13/11/2010 EC Leeds Bristol City O 1.92 10.00 118 13/11/2010 EC Leicester Derby O 2.00 10.00 119 13/11/2010 EC Reading Norwich O 1.94 10.00 120 13/11/2010 IA Fiorentina Cesena O 2.19 10.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 13, 2010 Author Share Posted November 13, 2010 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) Another excellent set of results :cheers..... unfortunately, Serie A's debut selection failed miserably :\. Still 51% return on the weekend so far ain't bad. [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] Tomorrow, just one selection.... Chelsea-Sunderland "under" :unsure...... and pigs might fly ;) [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] [/SIZE]No.DateLGEH TeamA TeamBet [SIZE=1]Odds Stake W/L Return Bank Yield 1,000.00 103 09/11/2010 EP Stoke 32 Birmingham O 2.35 10.00 W 13.50 1,110.00 11% 104 09/11/2010 EC Burnley 11 Doncaster U 2.08 10.00 W 10.80 1,120.80 12% 105 09/11/2010 EC Leeds 22 Hull O 1.94 10.00 W 9.40 1,130.20 12% 106 09/11/2010 EC Portsmouth 11 QPR U 1.89 10.00 W 8.90 1,139.10 13% 107 09/11/2010 EC Scunthorpe 02 Middlesbrough U 1.98 10.00 W 9.80 1,148.90 14% 108 09/11/2010 EC Crystal Palace 32 Watford U 2.01 10.00 L -10.00 1,138.90 13% 109 10/11/2010 EP Wolves 02 Arsenal U 2.10 10.00 W 11.00 1,149.90 14% 110 10/11/2010 EP Aston Villa 32 Blackpool U 2.37 10.00 L -10.00 1,139.90 13% 111 10/11/2010 EP Chelsea 10 Fulham U 2.48 10.00 W 14.80 1,154.70 14% 112 10/11/2010 EC Reading 11 Cardiff U 1.96 10.00 W 9.60 1,164.30 15% 113 12/11/2010 EC Preston 02 Hull U 2.02 10.00 W 10.20 1,174.50 15% 114 13/11/2010 EP West Ham 00 Blackpool U 2.31 10.00 W 13.10 1,187.60 16% 115 13/11/2010 EC Crystal Palace 20 Coventry U 1.96 10.00 W 9.60 1,197.20 17% 116 13/11/2010 EC Ipswich 13 Barnsley O 1.90 10.00 W 9.00 1,206.20 18% 117 13/11/2010 EC Leeds 31 Bristol City O 1.92 10.00 W 9.20 1,215.40 18% 118 13/11/2010 EC Leicester 20 Derby O 2.00 10.00 L -10.00 1,205.40 17% 119 13/11/2010 EC Reading 33 Norwich O 1.94 10.00 W 9.40 1,214.80 18% 120 13/11/2010 IA Fiorentina 10 Cesena O 2.19 10.00 L -10.00 1,204.80 17% 121 14/11/2010 EP Chelsea Sunderland U 2.36 10.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 13, 2010 Author Share Posted November 13, 2010 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 120 bets +17% yield Some interesting statistics :zzz...... 365" width=10> Bets Yield [/SIZE] Overs 38 26% Unders82 14% EP37 14% EC74 24% IA 1 -100% [SIZE=2]bless 'em So, the "overs" and the EC are the best performers. If I had selected only EC Overs, the yield would have been an amazing 40% :loon, but with only 18 selections. I think I will stick to the current system ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 14, 2010 Author Share Posted November 14, 2010 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) Grex;1811581 Well, of course, pigs don't fly..... but the Black Cats of Sunderland certainly were flying today.... an amazing result. [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] So, the weekend's final return is down to 34%. Until next weekend :ok [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] [/SIZE]No.DateLGEH TeamA TeamBetOddsStakeW/LReturn [SIZE=1]Bank Yield 1,000.00 113 12/11/2010 EC Preston 02 Hull U 2.02 10.00 W 10.20 1,174.50 15% 114 13/11/2010 EP West Ham 00 Blackpool U 2.31 10.00 W 13.10 1,187.60 16% 115 13/11/2010 EC Crystal Palace 20 Coventry U 1.96 10.00 W 9.60 1,197.20 17% 116 13/11/2010 EC Ipswich 13 Barnsley O 1.90 10.00 W 9.00 1,206.20 18% 117 13/11/2010 EC Leeds 31 Bristol City O 1.92 10.00 W 9.20 1,215.40 18% 118 13/11/2010 EC Leicester 20 Derby O 2.00 10.00 L -10.00 1,205.40 17% 119 13/11/2010 EC Reading 33 Norwich O 1.94 10.00 W 9.40 1,214.80 18% 120 13/11/2010 IA Fiorentina 10 Cesena O 2.19 10.00 L -10.00 1,204.80 17% 121 14/11/2010 EP Chelsea 03 Sunderland U 2.36 10.00 L -10.00 1,194.80 16% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimjohn Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 121 bets +16% yield Hi Grex, congratulations on your continued success, :clap:clap:clap I've been testing an under over system myself, with the overs showing a nice profit but the unders struggling to stay level. I had a quick look to estimate how the overs would of done on the over 3.5 market estimating odds and it looked to come out very similar. I just had a quick look down your list and you look to have a very good strike rate on this market. Is it an easy job to back test your system for the over 3.5 market to see if this is just a phase of results or have you looked at this before. It might be a nice system to run along side your current masterpiece. :notworthy:notworthy:notworthy Thanks for the inspiration, keep up the good work, jimjohn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 121 bets +16% yield Thanks, Jimjohn, for the kind words. [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] It would be quite easy for me to do a back-test on the over 3.5 system.... BUT, I don't have any data on how to convert over 2.5 odds to over 3.5 odds.... can you help? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimjohn Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 121 bets +16% yield I just had a look at present games and came up with this as a rough guide, 2.5 3.5 1.7 2.7 1.8 2.9 1.9 3.2 2.0 3.5 2.1 3.8 2.2 4.1 2.3 4.4 Not quite a scientific analysis but seems near enough for a guide. Your results looked about 50/50 so an average price of 3.0 would give a whopping yield, (would that be 100% I'm not sure how to calculate it?) My figures were 21 wins 7 losses at over 2.5 but turned into 12 wins 16 losses at over 3.5 With average odds about 2.0 @ over2.5 and est. 3.5 @ over 3.5 I looked to make a similar profit but I thought yours might go through the roof, not that it's doing too bad ;) , but if it's consistent then there might be extra to be found in your selections. Hope this helps (a little), thanks again for the great thread, jimjohn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 121 bets +16% yield OK, Jimjohn.... I calculated a linear equation from your odds matrix to convert >2.5 odds to >3.5 odds.... and applied it to all "over" selections for this season. [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] ..... and the 38 bets produce an incredible yield of :loon 74% :loon (I tried to copy and paste the excel table onto this post, but it is too big and produces an "error"). I will try back-testing the system for the previous 7 seasons that I have data for, and see how it performs :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimjohn Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 121 bets +16% yield Now that would be impressive if it's not just a positive spike in results. I hope they come back something similar, happy testing, jimjohn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 18, 2010 Author Share Posted November 18, 2010 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 121 bets +16% yield [quote=jimjohn;1813935]Now that would be impressive if it's not just a positive spike in results. I hope they come back something similar, happy testing, jimjohn.[/quote] The results of the back-testing for >2.5 and >3.5 for the previous 7 seasons: EP - 344 selections.... >2.5 13% yield.... >3.5 25% yield :loon EC - 252 selections.... >2.5 17% yield.... >3.5 14% yield :unsure IA - 340 selections.... >2.5 19% yield.... >3.5 28% yield :loon So, with the exception of the EC, the results are very encouraging. What I will do is to run the >3.5 system in parallel with the >2.5 system in order to monitor its performance during the rest of the season.... it will be purely a paper exercise. One of the problems is that the >3.5's for this season are running well above expectations (74% yield), so there is bound to be a down-turn :\ Anyway, Jimjohn, thanks again for the original idea..... let's hope it proves to be a success :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 18, 2010 Author Share Posted November 18, 2010 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 121 bets +16% yield HELP, please.... in preparation for the start of publishing the "over 3.5 goals" system (see above), I have been trying to find a site that publishes the best odds for over 3.5...... Betbrain doesn't cover this, neither does Betexplorer. [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] Can anybody point me in the right direction..... thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimjohn Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 121 bets +16% yield It's nice to give a little back Grex, you're the one doing all the hard work. I'm not sure how accurate the >3.5 values are but we'll see in the coming weeks I suppose. I've not backed any of your selections yet :@ , as I'm not very good at keeping records :spank and didn't want to mix things up. But I might just have a go at them on the >3.5 market, hopefully before the 74% yield comes to an end. I'm only a small stake punter so won't lose a fortune if it goes pearshaped. I just had a quick look at the unders on this page for the under 1.5 market, but looks very much a non starter. Maybe an exactly 2 goals bet with 14 out of 27 coming in ;) . Thanks again for your input Grex, jimjohn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 121 bets +16% yield Hi Grex I've been following your selections for a few weeks now and just wanted to say keep up the good work! :clap For the over 3.5 odds check out this site. GL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 18, 2010 Author Share Posted November 18, 2010 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 121 bets +16% yield davidc;1814310 Thanks, David....... just what I was looking for :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 18, 2010 Author Share Posted November 18, 2010 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 121 bets +16% yield The purpose of this post is just to check out the format of the new tables that now take into account the new "over 3.5 goals" option. The "overs" (>2.5 and >3.5) have now been separated from the "unders" (<2.5). It's interesting to note that, so far this season, the ">2.5" are significantly out-performing the "<2.5". However, there is also a big difference in the number of selections for each... so, I think it is fair to conclude that there is a higher degree of statistical confidence in the "under 2.5s".:zzz I will post the weekend's selections tomorrow :ok OVERSNo.DateLGEH TeamA Team>2.5 OddsStakeW/LReturnBankYield>3.5 oddsW/LReturnBankYield1,000.001,000.003413/11/2010ECIpswich13Barnsley1.9010.00W9.001,099.5029%3.27W22.671,253.4875%3513/11/2010ECLeeds31Bristol City1.9210.00W9.201,108.7031%3.32W23.231,276.7179%3613/11/2010ECLeicester20Derby2.0010.00L-10.001,098.7027%3.55L-10.001,266.7174%3713/11/2010ECReading33Norwich1.9410.00W9.401,108.1029%3.38W23.801,290.5179%3813/11/2010IAFiorentina10Cesena2.1910.00L-10.001,098.1026%4.09L-10.001,280.5174%UNDERSNo.DateLGEH TeamA Team<2.5 OddsStakeW/LReturnBankYield1,000.008012/11/2010ECPreston02Hull2.0210.00W10.201,084.0011%8113/11/2010EPWest Ham00Blackpool2.3110.00W13.101,097.1012%8213/11/2010ECCrystal Palace20Coventry1.9610.00W9.601,106.7013%OVERALL (not including >3.5)8314/11/2010EPChelsea03Sunderland2.3610.00L-10.001,096.7012%BETS121YIELD16% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 18, 2010 Author Share Posted November 18, 2010 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 121 bets +16% yield [quote=jimjohn;1814306]It's nice to give a little back Grex, you're the one doing all the hard work. I'm not sure how accurate the >3.5 values are but we'll see in the coming weeks I suppose. I've not backed any of your selections yet :@ , as I'm not very good at keeping records :spank and didn't want to mix things up. But I might just have a go at them on the >3.5 market, hopefully before the 74% yield comes to an end. I'm only a small stake punter so won't lose a fortune if it goes pearshaped. I just had a quick look at the unders on this page for the under 1.5 market, but looks very much a non starter. Maybe an exactly 2 goals bet with 14 out of 27 coming in ;) . Thanks again for your input Grex, jimjohn.[/quote] Sorry, Jimjohn... I only just noticed your post. OK... I am doing the "hard work", but I certainly wouldn't have thought of looking at the over 3.5 market without your input. [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] Regarding your intention of putting some money on the over 3.5s, I'm warning you that I think there will only be two "overs" selections this weekend..... both on Sunday, from the Italian Serie A :loon..... and I still don't have a lot of faith in this league. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneydog Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 121 bets +16% yield not sure if you need historical odds or the odds for the upcoming weekend. for the upcoming weekend you should check www.oddsportal.com. they have have odds for the o/u 3.5 of 43 books for the arsenal-tottenham match for example. hope this helps! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluemanc Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 121 bets +16% yield Morning Mr G,one question........Do you ever go to bed !!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 19, 2010 Author Share Posted November 19, 2010 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 121 bets +16% yield Moneydog;1814576 Thanks, Moneydog.... another excellent site :ok bluemanc;1814589 Of course I do...... with my laptop and wireless internet connection.... the wife's not too happy, though ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluemanc Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 121 bets +16% yield Mr G, good shout. I hope you take suitable precautions,the rhythm method doesn`t work too well with laptops !! Good luck for the weekend matey :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 19, 2010 Author Share Posted November 19, 2010 Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) 121 bets +16% yield bluemanc;1814671 :lol [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] Don't worry... my laptop is so old, it must be post-menopausal.... no precautions necessary :tongue2 [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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