Jimmy2shoes Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell Interesting stuff richard, lets see how the gangsters price them up, and if any money comes etc etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 6, 2015 Author Share Posted January 6, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell The 9 runner handicap could provide some EW bets as the Sporting Life has the horses in stalls 7,8 and 9 as the 3 favourites in it's Forecast ! Forecast Red Stripes (15/8), Ifittakesforever (7/2), Jebediah Shine (5/1), Pancake Day (8/1), Crystal Wish (10/1), Alderaan (12/1), Air Of York (16/1), Newton Bomb (16/1), Junior Ben (20/1) I'd be gobsmacked if that anything like the SPs ! Alderaan, Newton Bomb and Air of York have the 3 low draws Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell yeah imagine if the draw holds at those odds .....!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 7, 2015 Author Share Posted January 7, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell The early prices are up for the 9 runner handicap The favourite and second favourite are in the two highest stalls, 8 and 9 I like the look of Pancake Day 5/1 bog Paddy Power - Front runner, gets 6F, won on the track, drawn 4, in decent recent form The ones drawn 1,2 and 3 are all decent prices and any of them could have an EW chance. Air of York, stall 1, best price 16/1, is a 12 race maiden, Has shown early speed but tends not to last home. Got clobbered for finishing 2nd in a maiden race, up 13lbs. Had struggled in handicaps before that rise and not surprisingly has struggled in a couple since. All he has going for him is early speed but I don't really fancy him Alderaan, stall 2, best price 10/1, is a 6 race maiden. Drops down from class 3. Comes here after 6 months off and with no course form. Acts on soft and 5F looks her trip. I could see this one getting a bit behind and running on late, maybe running into a place Newton Bomb, stall 3, best price 20/1, is a 7 race maiden. I've got a sneaky feeling for this.....shows early speed, has been running over further but not getting home, reportedly didn't handle the bend at Lingfield last time so the straight track should suit. I think this one could be the one to bomb away from the low draws and should run all the way to the line over 5F My selections...... Pancake Day - WIN at 5/1 bog PP Newton Bomb - EW at 20/1 bog Bet365 the two 6 runner races haven't been priced up yet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell Air of York for me. Ran a cracker here back in November under W.T.D and was running off 9-7 he was quick for most of the 6f so the drop back down to the 5f on this surface and coming out Trap 1 could give him his first win. Sole runner for Ron Harris and sole ride for Renato Souza. The showing 16/1 makes me rather moist. Air of York - 3:20 Southwell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell sf for me ..bottom 4 draws...12 bets ..on the hcap race only Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell Be interesting to see the market now Pancake Day has halved in price and is now 5/2 second favourite Will it go off favourite ? If it does then I'd suggest that the market is now being formed primarily around the draw rather than the form Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arsenalfh Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell Newton Bomb, stall 3, best price 20/1, is a 7 race maiden. I've got a sneaky feeling for this.....shows early speed, has been running over further but not getting home, reportedly didn't handle the bend at Lingfield last time so the straight track should suit. I think this one could be the one to bomb away from the low draws and should run all the way to the line over 5F My selections...... Pancake Day - WIN at 5/1 bog PP Newton Bomb - EW at 20/1 bog Bet365 the two 6 runner races haven't been priced up yet I took Newton Bob for the exact same reasons last night. Hasn't shown much in the form book but like you said his running style should suit, possibly the straight track too as well as the drop in trip. Still looks a good bet to me at 18/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell Taken from Drawbias. A strong bias exists at Southwell on the All Weather. It appears that the centre of track is the quickest part of the course. A theory I have heard for this is that the roller they use to roll the course is 2/3rds the width, and therefore the middle of the course in effect gets rolled twice. If you ever go to Southwell you can actually see that the centre of the track is a darker colour. High numbers are next to the stands side rail and are therefore running on a slower part of the track. Therefore it is a big advantage to be drawn low and in the centre of the course. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arsenalfh Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell Be interesting to see the market now Pancake Day has halved in price and is now 5/2 second favourite Will it go off favourite ? If it does then I'd suggest that the market is now being formed primarily around the draw rather than the form All the low draws shortening except Alderaan who is out to 23 on Betfair. Think there's some value especially in a place as anyone in stall 2 has a good chance to hit the frame provided the horse is not completely useless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
morphine_K Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell I already go mad on Newton Bomb stall 3 last night, the horse has a good speed and if the drawbias exists, it will boost the chance of the horse since the horse drawn inside get to take the shortest route then have first dibs on the best ground, the others have to try to close the gap on the worst ground. Pancake Day stall 4 is being well backed as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr.benn Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell 320 south thurs best betting heat of the day red stripes facile win lto puts him top (51)but drawn 9 so not so good .....could go in again though and southwell proven form,....ifitakesforever also proven course form and still looks feasibly hcapped but drawn 8 .....might be the value bet ......pancake day has collateral lines with ifitakesforever and is drawn 4 .....so has to go on shortlist especially ew ........but for me red stripes in 9 is by far the best hcapped but pancake day has a level of form needed to minimumally win this from stall 4 ......but if you like him then ifittakesforever is weighted to draw with him but drawn 8 ...........don't like this race at all ........form horses drawn wide .....I have this priced up at red stripes 5/2 ifittakesforever 4/1......and pancake day 13/2 .......so the ew value is pancake day but off a mark of 55?.....I don't think he can win ? Just read the above after selecting Pancake Day as my NAP in the competition :\:\:\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell The Claimer at 12.50 isn't of much interest The horse drawn in 1 is a non runner leaving just 5 to post. Logically the fewer the runners the less effect the draw will have The current favourite is Shawkantango drawn 5 of 6.........I have a worry with him that he tends to waddle out of the stalls and give the others 5 lengths start. Last time he finished like a train to get placed but that was from stall 1.........I think from near the rail he might be worth taking on. In such a small field he'll probably be able to move out to the centre of the track if he starts behind the others so I wouldn't rule him out.......he could pick them off with a late rattle The logical selection is Monsieur Jamie at 11/4 bog bet365 now in the lowest stall after the non runner comes out, he's a CD winner and has the highest OR in the field. He has been running poorly but has had a couple of months off so hopefully will have turned a corner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell i agree about monsieur Jamie he looks the most likely candidate but not one to trust and certainly not at 5/2.......in the hcap 320....red stripes looks very well hcapped and ordinarily should win this .....so this will be a very good test of the draw bias as hes drawn high Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell The 6 runner maiden race at 1.20 is a puzzler.......wide range of official ratings from 80 to 48 amogst the 4 runners that have earned a mark. Very little course form, one horse making it's racecourse debut and 2 of them coming back from 3 to 6 months off Plum draw is Hell of a Lord in stall 1.......he's also the highest rated on OR. He ran well in a couple of maidens last year then tailed off and finished last on both his final 2 starts. Had 6 months off so difficult to know what to expect. Probably the safest option is the favourite - Come Uppance at 13/8 bog bet365 He's drawn in 4 but is a speedy front runner so should be able to get out and choose his route (as the Americans say !). Stays further than 5F so should run to the line. Keeps finishing 2nd which is a bit of a worry. If something is going to hassle him out of it and test his bottle it could be Landing Night who looked quite useful on debut but appeared not to stay 6F at Hamilton on second outing. Should be suited by this 5F if he acts on the surface. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr.benn Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell The 6 runner maiden race at 1.20 is a puzzler.......wide range of official ratings from 80 to 48 amogst the 4 runners that have earned a mark. Very little course form, one horse making it's racecourse debut and 2 of them coming back from 3 to 6 months off Plum draw is Hell of a Lord in stall 1.......he's also the highest rated on OR. He ran well in a couple of maidens last year then tailed off and finished last on both his final 2 starts. Had 6 months off so difficult to know what to expect. Probably the safest option is the favourite - Come Uppance at 13/8 bog bet365 He's drawn in 4 but is a speedy front runner so should be able to get out and choose his route (as the Americans say !). Stays further than 5F so should run to the line. Keeps finishing 2nd which is a bit of a worry. If something is going to hassle him out of it and test his bottle it could be Landing Night who looked quite useful on debut but appeared not to stay 6F at Hamilton on second outing. Should be suited by this 5F if he acts on the surface. Nice analysis 1-2 by shd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell 320 south thurs best betting heat of the day red stripes facile win lto puts him top (51)but drawn 9 so not so good .....could go in again though and southwell proven form,....ifitakesforever also proven course form and still looks feasibly hcapped but drawn 8 .....might be the value bet ......pancake day has collateral lines with ifitakesforever and is drawn 4 .....so has to go on shortlist especially ew ........but for me red stripes in 9 is by far the best hcapped but pancake day has a level of form needed to minimumally win this from stall 4 ......but if you like him then ifittakesforever is weighted to draw with him but drawn 8 ...........don't like this race at all ........form horses drawn wide .....I have this priced up at red stripes 5/2 ifittakesforever 4/1......and pancake day 13/2 .......so the ew value is pancake day but off a mark of 55?.....I don't think he can win ? Pancake Day is a 3 year old, and was only beat 3 lengths off the same mark last time out, he can surely only improve with time given his age. One thing is for sure, he is a very strong traveller, he will probably trade at a shade of odds on at some stage. When he won over 6f two runs back here at Southwell, he surged to nearly a 2 length lead at the 1 pole, and only won by a neck. So the drop back to 5f should be massively in his favour here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell Pancake Day is a 3 year old' date=' and was only beat 3 lengths off the same mark last time out, he can surely only improve with time given his age. One thing is for sure, he is a very strong traveller, he will probably trade at a shade of odds on at some stage. When he won over 6f two runs back here at Southwell, he surged to nearly a 2 length lead at the 1 pole, and only won by a neck. So the drop back to 5f should be massively in his favour here.[/quote'] this is a tough race .....of the low draws pancake day shades it and looks the most likely winner but ...red stripes is 8lbs well in in effect and ifittakeforever has shown some decent form lately .....it will be no surprise if this race bucks the trends .....nice test though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell Not sure what to make of that ! Interesting that the winner had drifted a lot as he was second favourite when I posted last night......went off at 10/1. Obviously the draw is now affecting the prices which makes it difficult to take advantage of the bias. I suppose in retrospect the low drawn horses were just very poor and if you were brave enough to go against the draw bias you could have got a nice winner The first two home are probably better than they showed today coming from the highest 2 stalls but if they get a good draw next time they'll be very short prices Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
morphine_K Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell Not sure what to make of that ! Interesting that the winner had drifted a lot as he was second favourite when I posted last night......went off at 10/1. Obviously the draw is now affecting the prices which makes it difficult to take advantage of the bias. I suppose in retrospect the low drawn horses were just very poor and if you were brave enough to go against the draw bias you could have got a nice winner The first two home are probably better than they showed today coming from the highest 2 stalls but if they get a good draw next time they'll be very short prices Could be interesting if we use bookmakers that offer cash out feature, I lumped on Newton bomb and Air of York last night, despite Newton bomb was shortening to 16/1 from 20/1, they offered cash-out with a little loss 10% of the stake then it drifted to 20/1 again, but with Air of York, I could cash out the amount of my stake x2 cause it was heavily backed. My point is that we could back big price horses from low drawns the night before and then cash out when the market moving in the morning to guarantee a profit? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell I suppose in retrospect the low drawn horses were just very poor and if you were brave enough to go against the draw bias you could have got a nice winner You cant have it both ways, which is whole problem with stats. Maybe its just that you need a few more runners for it work out, at least a dozen for a draw to take a real effect in my opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell I agree I don't think low draws were any good .....best form horses were drawn high and they were very good horses at southwell so I wouldn't read too much into it .....and they didn't really use the low area of the track ...most went down the middle ....and the advantage seems tobe near the rail ......imstill gonna stick with forecast in decent races ....I think it will go In big soon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 9, 2015 Author Share Posted January 9, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell You cant have it both ways, which is whole problem with stats. Maybe its just that you need a few more runners for it work out, at least a dozen for a draw to take a real effect in my opinion. I think it's more a case of getting carried away with it When I've posted a proposed strategy to take advantage of the draw bias my first thoughts are 'CD winner, drawn low, early speed, stays 6F'.........would be an ideal contender Those horses yesterday didn't tick any boxes apart from being drawn low If the low drawn horses are going to be backed now regardless of how good they are it might open up some value in betting against the draw ! I think it's very much a case of looking at each race and each horse on it's merits rather than a statistical system (well, it is for me !) But logically you're right re number of runners.......a bigger field should accentuate any draw bias Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Custom Cut Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell Harwood's star a beaten 1.46 favourite after availing of a good Southwell draw. Might be tough to use the draw bias at Southwell anymore but it could be worth opposing horses who have taken advantage of it next time out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell todays race 325 south scarborough draw 1 51 guishan draw 5 50 extreme supreme draw 4 49 contrary to the last race this race all the best horses are drawn low with the fav drawn in stall 1 ......cant be sure if that is the bookies just taking no chances now on low draws or its just that hes best horse in race which he is .........the fact that extreme sureme draw 4 is second fav is suggestin the bookies have caught on now and are pricing accordingly ...........best value of the race is guishan in draw 5 ......available around 6/1 he looks a decent ew bet .the fav should really win this from stall 1 especially if the draw bias is there ......forecasts look a little short so ill try and squeeze a bit of profit out scarborough 4pts win 3.8 betfair guishan 2pts saver 9.0 betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 13, 2015 Author Share Posted January 13, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell yeah........doesn't look much edge to be had in todays race The only one drawn low that is an EW price is Bapak Bangsawan at 40/1 with wm hill He's run OK here and is well handicapped. Did well last time to be beaten just 4 lengths from stall 11. But you do get the impression that once they've gone to Ann Stokell their winning days are over But as my intention with this idea was to throw up big priced EW shots I'll put him up for a small EW. I think I've found some weaknesses with the more fancied low drawn horses Scarborough is 10lbs above his last winning mark and has looked in the handicappers grip for his last few outings. On the plus side he drops in class. One thing I've noticed is that he has a tendency to veer to his left and with no horse drawn outside him he could easily end up on the far rail which is not the place to be. Only Ten Percent would have been my EW choice if his odds were conducive. Good chance of being placed. Ran well last time but he's never won off a mark this high and needs a career best at age 7 and after 46 races.........which is unlikely. At 25/1 would be worth a small EW but not at 7/1. Extreme Surprise is lightly raced and on the up but this is a much better race than his wins and he's up in the weights Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell Well scarborough wins but csnt say it was draw as they seem to run up the middle although first three all drawn low ..but they were also form horses... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell Well scarborough wins but csnt say it was draw as they seem to run up the middle although first three all drawn low ..but they were also form horses... Good call richard, sadly backed the 2nd but played safe E/w Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arsenalfh Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell Southwell 2:30 Zac Brown (5/2): This is a favourite I'm really keen to take on. He runs from stall 8 and tends to be held up in his races so I can see him struggling to get involved in his first run on fibresand. He won well the last day and looks a good prospect but I don't think this race is set up to suit at all and the price is well too short. Scarborough (11/4): Won pretty comfortably last time here and looks like a horse who can progress further. He has everything you want in a horse at Southwell and the higher draw probably won't be too much of an inconvenience since there's only 8 runners and he gets out of the stalls quickly. He was well backed the last day and he'll probably go off a good deal shorter than 11/4. Woolfall Sovereign (6/1): This is another runner who won last time beating the useful Dungannon off level weights. He's up 6lbs and is exposed as a 9 yo but he loves it here at Southwell and from a good draw he'll probably go well. 6/1 looks a fair enough price. Royal Bajan (12/1): Beaten 5L by Zac Brown at Chelmsford and 3.75L by Woolfall Sovereign the time before as an exposed 7 yo doesn't fill you with confidence but he has a 6lbs swing in the weights to the favourite and a massive 10lbs swing to Woolfall Sovereign. He goes well at Southwell and shows early speed which he'll put to good use from stall 5. Verdict: The runners in stall 1 and 3 have no experience at Southwell and aren't too appealing although Perfect Pasture has only had two runs this winter after progressing nicely during 2013. He could have more to give if he takes to the surface but Royal Bajan looks set to run a big race with his past competitors giving him weight. He'll relish these conditions unlike Zac Brown who is giving weight and in receipt of 10lbs the handicapper has given him a decent chance to reverse the form with Woolfull Sovereign. Scarborough looks the pick of the runners but at 12/1 I'll take him on with one of the outsiders. Royal Bajan - 1pt each way @ 12/1 BetVictor/Betfair Sportsbook Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell Interesting race this one .....computer is saying zac brown (98.99) is the top rated and runs from high draw ...woolfall soverign is second rated (98.82) .. and is drawn low ....so ...one high ..one low ..will be a very good test of bias this time ....personally ...woolfall soverign ew at 6/1 looks the bet to be on .....no surprise if zac brown runs well as he ran a cracker lto .... woolfall soveriegn 2pts ew 6/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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