Group D: Italy vs Uruguay > Tues 24th June

[kevshat]

[TABLE=class: couponTable]

[TR=class: row1] [TD=class: firstColumn]Italy v Uruguay (17:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.84 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.8 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.34 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[MPLouis]

Re: Group D: Italy vs Uruguay > Tues 24th June This should be a good game to watch, as both battle to qualify along with Costa Rica. Italy need a draw and Uruguay have to win. I would normally back overs in this situation, but both these sides are unusually good at defending, so there is also a possibility of, say one side winning 1-0 or 2-0. 'NO BET' for me.

[kevshat]

Re: Group D: Italy vs Uruguay > Tues 24th June 4pts Under 2.5 goals 4/5 Skybet I think Italy will be the ones to go through from this match but the fact they don’t need to win puts me off backing them. The safer bet looks to be under 2.5 goals here. Both sides are defensively astute even if they are a little immobile and by and large the build up play from both teams is slow and steady rather than the flair and pace we’ve seen from sides like Colombia and Ghana. The meaning of the match makes this automatically tight and I’m not expecting many goals. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/italy-vs-uruguay-betting-natal-likely-to-be-devoid-of-goals

[newjack]

Re: Group D: Italy vs Uruguay > Tues 24th June I actually agree. Should be a close match however I dont particulary fancy unders when there's Suarez involved. On the other hand while Italy needs a draw to win and will probably focus on defending while if Uruguay scores one they'll have to open up and score. So I actually fancy over here but i'll wait abit before i make any decisions

[Left4Dead]

Re: Group D: Italy vs Uruguay > Tues 24th June Does anybody offer half time/full time for match totals? I have seen soo many games stay under in the first half then a lot of scoring in the second half.

[slizorn]

Re: Group D: Italy vs Uruguay > Tues 24th June I have listed the last 10 games Italy have played and the offside counts in each of those games. Italy vs Costa Rica 12-3 England vs Italy 0-7 Fluminese vs Italy 0-4 Italy vs Luxembourg 5-0 Italy vs Ireland 2-1 Spain vs Italy 1-2 Italy vs Nigeria 3-0 Italy vs Germany 2-0 Italy vs Armenia 4-2 Denmark vs Italy 0-4 In comparison, Uruguay's last 10 matches and offside stats look like the following. Uruguay vs England 3-0 Uruguay vs Costa Rica 5-2 Uruguay vs Slovenia 2-2 Uruguay vs Northern Ireland 1-0 Austria vs Uruguay 2-1 Uruguay vs Jordan 0-0 Jordan vs Uruguay 0-0 Uruguay vs Argentina 0-0 Ecuador vs Argentina 1-0 Uruguay vs Colombia 3-0 I think considering that Italy needs a draw and Uruguay needs a win, Uruguay would be more attacking minded than Italy. In their last 10 games, Italy have won the offside handicap, and have had a minimum of 3 offsides in 7 of them. Considering that, Over 2.5 Italy offsides @ 1.50 Unibet is one bet under consideration, but at that price, it might be best avoided? Most offsides - Italy @ 1.50 Unibet is another bet, but the odds are not appealing. Honestly there is only one thing that I like the look of in this market and that is to for Italy to get the first offside of the match @ 1.83 Paddypower. It is priced as low as 1.40 elsewhere and could be the only value bet in this market. Any thoughts etc is most welcome, I will post later, if I do end up taking any of the above mentioned bets.

[nioreh]

Re: Group D: Italy vs Uruguay > Tues 24th June MarathonBet has Italy over 3.5 offsides for 1.9, looks like a decent price. I found my bet for this match at bet365, offering Italy Over 1.5 Yellow Cards @ 2.5. Ref is Marco Rodriguez, he refreereed Belgium - Algeria and showed 2 cards there, also has two games from WC2010 where he showed 4 and 5 respectively with a red card in each game. Bet365 counts an instant red as 2 yellows so if Italy has one sent off bet is won also. My take on this game is anything can happen, from tight and nervous 0-0 to extreme goal fest for either or both teams. This can interfere with over/under bets and winner bets, but this cards bet should have a good chance to come through either way. This game there is A LOT at stake and emotions will be strong and jugdements clouded. Another strong reason I like the bet is because Italy has only Balotelli booked so far, which means that every defensive player is free to take a yellow card to stop a Uruguay attack. And its the last game, so cards are 'reset' again for the knockout round, a yellow card here is almost meaningless. I would give it at least 50% chance to come through so odds of 2.5 are great.

[lazynko]

Re: Group D: Italy vs Uruguay > Tues 24th June 1st half - DRAW @2.16 Pinnacle Goal scored between 76-90 @2.15 Marathon I think that it might have a similar course as two games from yesterday - Chile´s and Croatia´s games. We have one team which will be satisfied with draw, and the second which really need to win. Because of that, I expect Italy´s approch to be very patient, sitting back and maybe waiting for some counter-attack. Uruguay is the team who is going to play football and create but they are gonna have some difficulties to break Italy´s defence, so draw in the first half seems fine. And then, when the time is running against them, they have to open the game which also opens a lot of space for Italy, so we are likely to see something similar as in Croatia vs. Mexico game. No matter which team is going to score, I´m sure that one of them will be made to open game in last minutes, so that gives me a confidence about at least one goal score within last 15 minutes.

[slizorn]

Re: Group D: Italy vs Uruguay > Tues 24th June

Does anybody offer half time/full time for match totals? I have seen soo many games stay under in the first half then a lot of scoring in the second half.

Not sure I follow, but I think the bet you might be after is for Highest Scoring Half. See the following: http://odds-comparison.bestbetting.com/football/world-cup/main-tournament/group-stage/group-d/italy-v-uruguay/highest-scoring-half/

[Smurf]

Re: Group D: Italy vs Uruguay > Tues 24th June

I found my bet for this match at bet365, offering Italy Over 1.5 Yellow Cards @ 2.5. Ref is Marco Rodriguez, he refreereed Belgium - Algeria and showed 2 cards there, also has two games from WC2010 where he showed 4 and 5 respectively with a red card in each game. Bet365 counts an instant red as 2 yellows so if Italy has one sent off bet is won also. My take on this game is anything can happen, from tight and nervous 0-0 to extreme goal fest for either or both teams. This can interfere with over/under bets and winner bets, but this cards bet should have a good chance to come through either way. This game there is A LOT at stake and emotions will be strong and jugdements clouded. Another strong reason I like the bet is because Italy has only Balotelli booked so far, which means that every defensive player is free to take a yellow card to stop a Uruguay attack. And its the last game, so cards are 'reset' again for the knockout round, a yellow card here is almost meaningless. I would give it at least 50% chance to come through so odds of 2.5 are great.

I think the odds are priced about right tbh. Yes it's an important game but the way Italy play doesn't usually leave them open to counter attacks where defensive players need to make last ditch/rash challenges. Italy have had only two players booked in their last 5 games, so it may be a tough bet to come in IMO.

[Guest]

Re: Group D: Italy vs Uruguay > Tues 24th June

Another strong reason I like the bet is because Italy has only Balotelli booked so far' date=' which means that every defensive player is free to take a yellow card to stop a Uruguay attack. [b']And its the last game, so cards are 'reset' again for the knockout round, a yellow card here is almost meaningless. I would give it at least 50% chance to come through so odds of 2.5 are great.

The rules have changed since last World Cup: Yellow Cards will only 'reset' after quarter finals. Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_FIFA_World_Cup_disciplinary_record

[Yuri]

Re: Group D: Italy vs Uruguay > Tues 24th June I will write in this topic, but it holds for all 4 matches today (and maybe also for tomorrow's). In last 6 matches we saw 24 goals => 4.00 goals per match. From 1986 we only in France saw running average exactly 4.00. High running average was also in Korea and Japan (with around 3.75). When I analysing that running averages of last 7 World Cups I noticed that after every high running average (I named that "wave") we saw significant drop of running average - sometimes under 2.0 goals per match. Probably I confused you. So concrete example. In France 1998 in the middle of World Cup we saw 6 sequential matches with 24 scored goals together. Next 6 matches produced only 11 goals. In Korea and Japan 2002 the average came and then we saw just 43 goals in next 21 matches. Those two was the most noticeable cases. On other tournaments also we saw "waves". Maybe not from running average 4.00 goals per match to 2.00 goals per match but big enough to be noticeable in graph. If you want you can check those waves in statistic dashboard for World Cups: http://stats.stoots.com (it's perhaps hard to start using but you can get a lot of custom stats). My thoughts are to next 6 matches and totally scored goals in those matches. My opinion is that there won't be more than 15-18 goals. Now I must convert those projections into bets or concrete predictions what is always the hardest thing to do. The first logical thought is to bet on unders. Odds are ok. And also we saw in last days that those matches at 13.00 (local time) are with slow starts. We have also make a variant of under and bet on exact 2 goals with cover 1 and 3 goals. This starting position is welcome for traders at BetFair. And maybe one noticeable thing at Betfair. Usually you can get better price if wait 10 minutes. And if goals is scored in first 10 minutes you can optimize your trade (only backing 2-0 and 1-1 with 2-1 as cover) - unless you think the match will go to clear over. (But we saw that early goal doesn't mean that next goal will also come quick!)

[Yuri]

Re: Group D: Italy vs Uruguay > Tues 24th June

We have also make a variant of under and bet on exact 2 goals with cover 1 and 3 goals. This starting position is welcome for traders at BetFair.

I just try to back 2-0, 1-1, 0-2 and cover 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 3-0, 2-1, 1-2 and 0-3. For 2 goals scored result I got odds 2.0. Perhaps worth to think about that.

[allthethings]

Re: Group D: Italy vs Uruguay > Tues 24th June

Honestly there is only one thing that I like the look of in this market and that is to for Italy to get the first offside of the match @ 1.83 Paddypower. It is priced as low as 1.40 elsewhere and could be the only value bet in this market. Any thoughts etc is most welcome, I will post later, if I do end up taking any of the above mentioned bets.

I'm not a fan of this bet...even if you expect Italy to get more offsides in the match as a whole, the odds of them getting the first one are 50-50, meaning that odds of under 2.0 are too low.

[Hutcho_CFC]

Re: Group D: Italy vs Uruguay > Tues 24th June

I'm not a fan of this bet...even if you expect Italy to get more offsides in the match as a whole' date= the odds of them getting the first one are 50-50, meaning that odds of under 2.0 are too low.

Not a fan of the bet either. But this isn't exactly true.

[Abyss]

Re: Group D: Italy vs Uruguay > Tues 24th June

I have listed the last 10 games Italy have played and the offside counts in each of those games.... ....there is only one thing that I like the look of in this market and that is to for Italy to get the first offside of the match @ 1.83 Paddypower. It is priced as low as 1.40 elsewhere and could be the only value bet in this market. Any thoughts etc is most welcome, I will post later, if I do end up taking any of the above mentioned bets.

Hehehe was about to post about offside betting also but you were faster then me ;) Im a little bit wild and crazy, no coffee at work today, so I will go with total over 6.5 offsides @ 2.00 (Betsson)

[JuMeSyn]

Re: Group D: Italy vs Uruguay > Tues 24th June Pirlo to score outside the penalty box @ 12.00 (unibet) for a 0.1 stake Barzagli to score on a header @ 22.00 (unibet) for a 0.04 stake Chiellini to score on a header @ 18.00 (unibet) for a 0.06 stake Big gamble? Maybe. But it sure looks like it could happen. Uruguay are a well-spirited team that fights for every inch on the pitch. They looked extremely well defensively, but they conceded some fouls against England in dangerous zones. They lacked some offensive consistency due to lack of stamina due to their defensive efforts. Italy are the much better team, IMO. Even with Suarez, Uruguay are a step below Italy, which will surely exploit the whole length of the pitch and try to force Uruguay as much as possible while maintaining possession. If Italy disrupts the way Uruguay are defending, Uruguay could concede some fouls, and that could be very deadly for them. If the FK is in head-on position, Pirlo is always a trademark taker, and now the ref spray, his FKs are even more dangerous. If on the wings, ball up to the penalty box, where Chiellini and Barzagli could easily do the difference with such well-taken FKs.

[Bebe]

Re: Group D: Italy vs Uruguay > Tues 24th June I would go for the over 2.5 goals per match at 2.10 with Bet365

[HastGill1]

Re: Group D: Italy vs Uruguay > Tues 24th June

I would go for the over 2.5 goals per match at 2.10 with Bet365

Could we have some reasoning please.

[welldone]

Re: Group D: Italy vs Uruguay > Tues 24th June Uruguay: Muslera; Cáceres, Giménez, Godín, A.Pereira; González, Arévalo Rios, C.Rodríguez, Lodeiro; Cavani, Suárez Italy: Buffon ©, De Sciglio, Chiellini, Darmian, Marchisio, Balotelli, Barzagli, Immobile, Bonucci, Pirlo, Verratti

[slizorn]

Re: Group D: Italy vs Uruguay > Tues 24th June

Uruguay: Muslera; Cáceres, Giménez, Godín, A.Pereira; González, Arévalo Rios, C.Rodríguez, Lodeiro; Cavani, Suárez Italy: Buffon ©, De Sciglio, Chiellini, Darmian, Marchisio, Balotelli, Barzagli, Immobile, Bonucci, Pirlo, Verratti

About time Ciro Immobile starts for Italy, looks to be a very attacking minded Italy side with 2 up top and possibly 3 in defence? The over 3.5 offsides for Italy looks pretty decent now, considering Italy's intent on the game is not to play defensively. For those that don't know Ciro Immobile that well, take a look at the following post: http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/145205-World-Cup-2014-gt-Outright-Betting?p=2435923#post2435923 The line has changed on Marathonbet, so taking the following bet on instead: 6pts Italy - Over 3.5 Offsides @ 1.65 Unibet

[welldone]

Re: Group D: Italy vs Uruguay > Tues 24th June True, but on the other hand they can start with 5 defenders - De Sciglio, Chiellini, Barzagli, Bonucci, Darmian; 3 in the midfield - Pirlo, Verratti, Marchisio; and Balotelli with Immobile for counter attacks. Last year when they played there was 2:2 after 90min and 3:2 after extra time.

[Yuri]

Re: Group D: Italy vs Uruguay > Tues 24th June If it is not too late: Italy from 1986 lost only 4 matches in Group Stage, never 2 in the same World Cup. This year already lost one.

[roveruk]

Re: Group D: Italy vs Uruguay > Tues 24th June

MarathonBet has Italy over 3.5 offsides for 1.9, looks like a decent price. I found my bet for this match at bet365, offering Italy Over 1.5 Yellow Cards @ 2.5. Ref is Marco Rodriguez, he refreereed Belgium - Algeria and showed 2 cards there, also has two games from WC2010 where he showed 4 and 5 respectively with a red card in each game. Bet365 counts an instant red as 2 yellows so if Italy has one sent off bet is won also. My take on this game is anything can happen, from tight and nervous 0-0 to extreme goal fest for either or both teams. This can interfere with over/under bets and winner bets, but this cards bet should have a good chance to come through either way. This game there is A LOT at stake and emotions will be strong and jugdements clouded. Another strong reason I like the bet is because Italy has only Balotelli booked so far, which means that every defensive player is free to take a yellow card to stop a Uruguay attack. And its the last game, so cards are 'reset' again for the knockout round, a yellow card here is almost meaningless. I would give it at least 50% chance to come through so odds of 2.5 are great.

Urgh! I had a card bet in 2 of my bets after reading this in the morning and now just realised the information is completely false! Brilliant.

[Abyss]

Re: Group D: Italy vs Uruguay > Tues 24th June

Urgh! I had a card bet in 2 of my bets after reading this in the morning and now just realised the information is completely false! Brilliant.

Why is the information false? Its stil 45min left of the game and "only" on card from this bet to win so i don't understand what is false?

[Guest]

Re: Group D: Italy vs Uruguay > Tues 24th June

Urgh! I had a card bet in 2 of my bets after reading this in the morning and now just realised the information is completely false! Brilliant.

Nevertheless, the bet was correct. :) Congrats on the Italy card bet!

[Yuri]

Re: Group D: Italy vs Uruguay > Tues 24th June

I will write in this topic, but it holds for all 4 matches today (and maybe also for tomorrow's). In last 6 matches we saw 24 goals => 4.00 goals per match. From 1986 we only in France saw running average exactly 4.00. High running average was also in Korea and Japan (with around 3.75). When I analysing that running averages of last 7 World Cups I noticed that after every high running average (I named that "wave") we saw significant drop of running average - sometimes under 2.0 goals per match. Probably I confused you. So concrete example. In France 1998 in the middle of World Cup we saw 6 sequential matches with 24 scored goals together. Next 6 matches produced only 11 goals. In Korea and Japan 2002 the average came and then we saw just 43 goals in next 21 matches. Those two was the most noticeable cases. On other tournaments also we saw "waves". Maybe not from running average 4.00 goals per match to 2.00 goals per match but big enough to be noticeable in graph.

Well - I admit I didn't expect only 1 goal from two matches. Now is the running average from last 6 matches exactly 2.5 goals per match. Today statistic patterns have shone, but I must warn you that statistic can not predict outcomes. It can give you alternative view on matches, scores and something like that.

[slizorn]

Re: Group D: Italy vs Uruguay > Tues 24th June

About time Ciro Immobile starts for Italy, looks to be a very attacking minded Italy side with 2 up top and possibly 3 in defence? The over 3.5 offsides for Italy looks pretty decent now, considering Italy's intent on the game is not to play defensively. For those that don't know Ciro Immobile that well, take a look at the following post: http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/145205-World-Cup-2014-gt-Outright-Betting?p=2435923#post2435923 The line has changed on Marathonbet, so taking the following bet on instead: 6pts Italy - Over 3.5 Offsides @ 1.65 Unibet

-6pts, didn't get to watch the game, seemed like quite a bit happened though, looking forward to the highlights later on.

[nioreh]

Re: Group D: Italy vs Uruguay > Tues 24th June Edit: This is a response to roveruks post above but i missed to quote somehow Yeah sorry about that, local TV commentators said warnings did all reset after the group stage I just didn't think they would be misinformed. Italy card bet sure cashed out anyway and there were 3 cards in England game so I hope you didn't lose too much :hope

[allthethings]

Re: Group D: Italy vs Uruguay > Tues 24th June

I'm not a fan of this bet...even if you expect Italy to get more offsides in the match as a whole' date=' the odds of them getting the first one are 50-50, meaning that odds of under 2.0 are too low.[/quote'] Total in the match: 4...Suarez got one, Immobile three...but Suarez was first.