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Smurf

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About Smurf

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 09/03/1986

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  1. Re: Norway - Tippeligaen (12-13 May) Great to see Lisandri back in action on the Scandinavian leagues and great to see the impressive Meatman turn his hat from the Frenchies to already give some very very good write-ups. Unlike most, this is my favourite time of the year for football bets. Scandinavian leagues are great to play on along with some other lesser leagues. Thank you both for the interesting write-ups over the last few weeks and keep it up as you are both providing invaluable information.
  2. Re: Ireland > Airtricity Premier League > 2015 Nice posts from the both of you on the first round of the ROI Prem. I have found this a very profitable league to get involved in over the last few years and am happy it's back on again.
  3. Re: Coupe de la Ligue > March 3rd - 5th Bad call in the end as PSG fully deserved the win. FT - PSG 2-0 Monaco - 12 points lost
  4. Re: Coupe de la Ligue > March 3rd - 5th Abdennour missed out against PSG at the weekend but I didn't know Wallace was injured. This would be cause for concern.
  5. Re: Coupe de la Ligue > March 3rd - 5th I think there is huge value in Monaco tonight and I have already placed some units on them. Monaco showed against Arsenal that they aren't the elite misfits everyone seems to think they are by putting in a superb display (whilst having some key injuries) at the Emirates to take home a great advantage for the next round of the champions league. After watching the Arsenal game it's plain to see why Monaco have a good record in the past season or two against the "bigger" teams. Monaco play a very similar to that of Athletico Madrid last season where they are an ultra organised team unit that can soak up bags of pressure and then hit their opponent on the counter. This works far better against the bigger teams as the opponents will mount pressure on Monaco which then leads to space being opened up and gaps for Monaco to attack. Against the lesser teams Monaco are forced to do the pressure mounting and this often doesn't suit their game and therefore why they may not pick up the wins they should on a regular enough basis in the league for example. Their record against the three teams above them in the league this season (Lyon. PSG & Marseille) reads as follows: P6 W2 D3 L1 which is very impressive and backs up the way they can play against the better teams. PSG are obviously the most dominant team here in terms of class but may find it hard to break Monaco down. PSG will be looking to mount pressure from the start (especially as they play at home) but Monaco haved proved (as they did last Sunday) that they can soak up the pressure from PSG adequately. PSG will be without their main man and main goal threat Zlatan Ibrahimovic tonight along with attacking winger Lucas and creative midfielder Cabaye. This is going to make PSG's chances of breaking down a stubborn Monaco far harder as they can not rely on a special perfomance from Zlatan to get them through the game. For this reason PSG will likely have to press harder and take even more risks in their aim to find a break through, which will (as we saw against Arsenal) only play into Monaco's hands and this is where Monaco can then mount attacks from themselves. Also note Monaco have a very impressive record against PSG. The last 6 meetings between the teams have ended in draws. All but one of these draws have been score draws (5x 1-1 & 1x 2-2 1x 0-0). If Monaco can find the back of PSG's net which isn't usually the most difficult of tasks then they have a great chance to win the game as PSG will have a tough night scoring without key attacking players against such a well drilled team IMO. All this information collated together makes me feel that Monaco are at least in with a very good chance of not losing the game but also have a good chance of sneaking a win so I will back the following as the odds are far too generous IMO. Monaco - DNB @ 4.50 with bet365 (6 points) Monaco @ 7.00 with bet365 (4 points) Monaco to win to nil @ 9.5 (2 points) Note - for those who want to be more cautious you can even get Monaco (+1.0 AH) @ 1.80 with bet365
  6. Re: West Ham - Crystal Palace > Saturday February 28th I'm siding the other way with favouring Palace here out of the two although I think in the end both teams may cancel each other out. Firstly I wasn't impressed with them throwing away a two goal lead against Spurs last weekend. They did well to get in front but to be fair most teams manage to score against Tottenham quite easily, the fact that they let them back into the game highlights their downturn in form. They have not won in their last 5 matches in all competitions and while they haven't exactly been the easiest fixtures, I just feel they look like they are starting to tire. West Ham have a decent size squad but with the constant injuries they have had Big Sam hasn't always had the luxury of being able to rotate when he sees fit and it's been more that his hands have been forced in a lot of cases. Downing had a great start to the season but looks out of form currently, when West Ham were at their best earlier on in the season he was running the show most weeks, his down turn in form has coincided with West Hams down turn in form. West Ham however have been very, very solid on their own turf and only Spurs, Southampton & Arsenal have managed to walk away with all three points this season. The same can be said however for Crystal palace, who surprisingly have lost only 4 times away from home all season from 16 games played. Three of those losses came against good opposition in Man City, Arsenal & Man Utd, which is a tremendous effort by any standards. Palace look very threatening under Pardew and are scoring plenty of goals, something West Ham aren't doing right now (only one goal scored in 4 games before last weekends trip to a leaky Spurs side). Although Palace have missings in forward areas I don't think this will cause too much concern as I think they will line-up as they did in their last away match in the league with Dwight Gale up top flanked by Zaha & Puncheon and Joe Ledley, McArthur & Mutch as the midfield three. On the face of it, Palace only have one win in their last 5 matches (Leicester away) but the other four games have been home (where their style of play is less effective) matches against good teams in Liverpool, Everton and Arsenal which they lost by a one goal margin each time with with a draw to Newcastle being the other fixture. Palace remind me of Aston Villa when they played under Martin O'Neil, not always the greatest at home but carried a significant goal threat on their travels against most teams by the way they played on the counter. For this reason I feel they can grab a goal against West Ham but also West Ham have managed to score in all but two home fixtures this season and with the goal threat that Sakho poses i'm not sure if Palace can keep a clean sheet here. I personally think this match will end with a score draw, more likely 1-1 so my bets are as follows: BTTS - Yes @ 1.83 bet365 - 5 points Draw @ 3.40 bet365 - 3 points Correct score - 1-1 @ 6.50 bet365 - 1 point
  7. Re: Arsenal v AS Monaco > Wednesday February 25th To be fair, Man Utd have conceaded less goals in the league (26) this season than Arsenal (29) and only Southampton (19) Chelsea (22) & Man City (25) have conceaded less. So they aren't as bad at the back as it seems.
  8. Re: Manchester City v FC Barcelona > Tuesday February 24th I totally agree with you here about Toure not being as big of a miss as people think against a side like Barcelona. I actually think it's a blessing in disguise. I think if you have watched much of Man City over the last two season, not when they play live on sky sports, but week by week you will know that Toure while he has world class qualities he can be very lazy at defensive duties on strolls around the pitch with little to no effort in alot of games. The more his attacking qualities have developed over the last two years the more his defensive qualities and efforts have diminished. I personally think having a midfield three of Fernando, Fernandinho and Milner will be more effective against Barcelona as they will keep up high intensity all throughout the game which is what is needed against them. Especially with a likely front three of Nasri, Silva, Aguero. TBH I would actually like to see Lampard play over Nasri to give even more protection while still including a dangerous threat.
  9. Re: Conference 14th February Jirwin, don't worry too much about sounding biased to Chester as you Always give a fair view of them. Chester are my favourite team to bet on in this league as they score and concede lots of goals so are always good for overs betting and also their fire power alows them to get very good results frequently and very high priced odds. There are various times this season and last where backing them in various win/or goals markets have proved very profitable and you have been great on your advise on how they play and their current form which helps very much on the call of wether to stake goals or a Chester win. I enjoy each of you posts on your team, now we just need to find a version of you for each team in the league ;)
  10. Re: Everton v Liverpool > Saturday February 7th I watched than game, unfortunately. It went exactly as expected with neither team willing to give anything up and neither team fully going full throttle for the win.
  11. Re: Liga de Fútbol Profesional > February 4th - 9th Very nice win. Looks like the game played out as some of us expected.
  12. Re: Netherlands > Eredivisie > 2014/15 I had been looking at this match for Groningen 0.0 AH @ 1.98 with bet365. As you alluded above the visitors are not guaranteed a win but I feel they are strong enough to get at least a point at the very least so the 0.0 AH seems decently priced to me.
  13. Re: Everton v Liverpool > Saturday February 7th I am not saying your pick won't come in but i'd be careful of basing it purely on last seasons results as both teams are completely different. Everton have not been performing well in front goal for a while now, while Liverpool aren't playing the same style of football as last year where they burst out of the traps each game and scored more goals in the first half compared to the second half (59/42). Not only is the playing style not the same for Liverpool with high pressing from the first minute leading to lots of early goals but as we can all see they don't score half as many goals full stop compared to last year so I think using last years results is a bad way to look at the game. This season Liverpool have only score 13 of their 33 premier league goals (39%) before half time. Also only 10 of their 27 goals conceaded have been before the break (37%). With Everton looking like they are starting to tighten up at the back and with Liverpool having a tough game midweek I think neither team will want to give anything away early on and it may be a very cagey first half and I feel a 0-0 result at half time could be very likely. For me the following bets seem good from the angle I expect the game to start from: HT result - Draw @ 2.20 for 4pts with bet365 HT correct score - 0-0 @ 3.00 for 2pts with bet365
  14. Re: Liga de Fútbol Profesional > February 4th - 9th I too had the exact same thoughts while watching the game last night. I ended up putting an in-play bet on Seville to score during the second half which looked likely all throughout the second half and came in easy enough. Seville had their first choice keeper come off injured during the first half but Madrid failed to capitalise on it as much as they should have. Granted they had to cope with their own injuries during the game with Ramos & James but as said above their look very very fatigued. Just to add to the bets above I will be putting a high stake on Athletico Madrid -1.0 AH @ 5.25. All the reasons for my bet have been summed up very well above by Simeon & HastGill so I will not drub on about Real too much but my reasoning behind the handicap is that I think Athletico will smell the blood during the game and put Real through their paces. If Athletico go one in front (especially if it's early on) then Real will be on the back foot trying to attack and and will over expose themselves to Athletico's counters. I think there is a very high chance that Athletico can win this game with a two goals margin as I feel they will score at least 2 if not 3 goals against this tired Real side that I feel will play right into their hands and the asian line @ 5.25 seems huge and screams mega value in my view. Athletico Madrid -1.0 AH @ 5.25 - 6 points - bet365
  15. Re: Sky Bet Championship > January 27th - 31st As a Sheffield Wednesday fan I am very excited about this. We have been tough to beat all season but have not been able to capitalise on that with wins as our creativity is beyond poor. We are in desperate need of a spark further up the pitch and hopefully this signing will help make that happen.