Maiden help

[erhaab1965]

Question for the advanced gamblers on here : how do you assess horses based on breeding? There are many of you on here who do your own tissue prices and frame your own for each race. How do you decide on the odds if they have never run before? Let's take a maiden race where the entire field are unraced. How do you determine which ones are fancied and which ones aren't. How can breeding determine the way a horse is priced up. I've been punting for many years and to be honest I know very little about the breeding aspect of the sport. Infact yesterday I looked at a horse called Abu Nayef ,owned by Jabber Abdulla ( Nayef / Queens Logic ). Given the dam and sire were Gr1 winners I would have automatically assumed the offspring would be a black type horse, however after 3 runs it was still a maiden rated in the 70s and eventually finished unplaced. Sometimes I see horses by Pivotal and Kyllachy both Gr1 sprinters producing middle distance horses, how does that work? I know there are some clued up punters on here who are already on horses like Mars and the unraced Hydrogen, how did you come to back these horses ante post even before they had run , was it the breeding? Where do I begin?

[Primevil]

Re: Maiden help 1. Price is no Guarantee, Look at Mark Johnstone, how many time has he paid 6 figure sums for horses that barely reach 75 or in their lives. 2. A field full of Maidens, Normally I would watch, however, If the Gallop reports have been consistently been flagging 1 up....like FRANKEL was, it may be worth following. Stats of trainers FTO are normally a good starting point. J Bolger R hannon, have good records, these yards tend to want to know were they stand instantley. However take L Cumani, christmas comes more often than FTO winners. 3. Betfair, late money in maidens is crucial, if you fancy one, the opposite can be said for a drifter, the Market is a very good guide, You would struggle to get the tissue correct in maidens. 4. There is no guarantee that all off spring from G1 winners become black type, however the hope by breeders is the majority will, Jim Bolger, was never confident when Dawn Approach first turned up, as the previous siblings, half brothers sisters turned out to be average at best, but DA was the 4th or 5th, and BINGO! 5. Pivotal/ Kyllachy sprinters... Pivotal, grand dam/grand sire full of mile n middle distance form, so whilst they think they will have a sprinter, genes can be passed thru, on the staying side. And if a trainer only trains a horse as a sprinter, it does not mean it cant stay, most dont even try....RED RUM a classic example. 6. Mars, is from a yard were the majority of unraced 2yo, with loads of entries will be backed ...blind...Hydrogen has always be touted by gallop watchers since early spring, but the trainer always talks one up. Just be careful, my advice see them on the track first then make your mind up.

[cpo]

Re: Maiden help I am certainly no gambling expert but iv backed Hydrogen for next years Derby at 50/1. As Primevil said this horse was well touted before being purchased. He was the most expensive yearling last year and was bought by an owner who is trying to fast track to the top. By Galileo so is bred to win a Derby and has been sent to the same trainer that trained Authorized in Peter Chapple Hyam. Like Camelot I heard his name was registered years ago as they were waiting for a special horse to come along. To me Hydrogen just sounds like he should be a special horse, as daft as that may sound. At the end of the day it's a pure gamble as to to whether or not he turns out to be a Derby contender but if he does I have him at a very tasty 50/1.

[The Saint]

Re: Maiden help Whilst this advice may seem obstructive, the best I have is to get a big red marker pen and cross out all Maiden Races out as soon as you get the Racing Post!! I know of some punters that can make them pay but I do not have the time or the inclination to become a breeding expert with so much other racing going on. With reference to the above, if I was forced to play in these events, I'd watch the market in the last 5 minutes (exchanges) and base any decision on that. Good Luck if it's a new venture you are going to take seriously :ok

[Trotter]

Re: Maiden help Erhaab..............why not pick out some maiden races over the next few days and give us your thoughts on the runners. Maybe other people will look at the same races and give their thoughts and between us we can see different approaches being worked out on an actual race................ Could be an interesting thread !

[erhaab1965]

Re: Maiden help

Erhaab..............why not pick out some maiden races over the next few days and give us your thoughts on the runners. Maybe other people will look at the same races and give their thoughts and between us we can see different approaches being worked out on an actual race................ Could be an interesting thread !

Thanks for response guy, could be interesting to share ideas and knowledge. As a punter I normally just watch maidens and pick a few to follow. As for purchase price, about 2 or 3 years ago Coolmore paid $16 million for a yearling called the Green monkey based in the States which failed to win a maiden, conversely Sheikh Mohammed has paid similar amounts for donkeys too, so whilst purchase price is an indicator, it's not always a guarantee. Only got a few minutes to spare this morning, gonna back a maiden of Mick Easterby's running this week at Chester, not based on form but blind based on the owner being the Sangster Family.

[Aidymac]

Re: Maiden help I don't back maidens anymore, waste of time. Minefields. But each to their own.

[Trotter]

Re: Maiden help

I don't back maidens anymore' date=' waste of time. Minefields. But each to their own.[/quote'] That's the camp I'm in as well. I wouldn't really ever consider betting on a maiden race However i quite often look at them for the Daily Racing Comp because you often have a really short price favourite who's got nothing much to recommend him apart fropm being the favourite. I think the less information there is about the runners the more over-bet the favourite is likely to be because the market is the only information punters are looking at. So you can often find big priced ones that are in with a chance I suppose you could approach those same races with a view to EW betting on big priced ones............

[Aidymac]

Re: Maiden help

That's the camp I'm in as well. I wouldn't really ever consider betting on a maiden race However i quite often look at them for the Daily Racing Comp because you often have a really short price favourite who's got nothing much to recommend him apart fropm being the favourite. I think the less information there is about the runners the more over-bet the favourite is likely to be because the market is the only information punters are looking at. So you can often find big priced ones that are in with a chance I suppose you could approach those same races with a view to EW betting on big priced ones............

Your right, there are big opportunities to lay short fav's in maidens aswell so there is. Sir Michael Stoute could be training a donkey, but because it is trained by him, the horse could go off 4/6 on debut. You just don't know.. Is the horse trying or not is another question, so many horses in maidens are just out for a jog. I am starting to always back in the Group races these days, the form is in the book and you have no weights to deal with.

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Maiden help

I don't back maidens anymore' date=' waste of time. Minefields. But each to their own.[/quote'] What he said. Although I've never backed in maidens.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Maiden help I dont regularly back in maidens either but if I am going to the course I will have a look at the card. The things I look out for are trainers success with 2yo's and also jockey success with 2yo's. I would also look at which trainers have a decent strike rate at certain tracks, especially with their 2yo's. Some trainers aim for certain tracks and some trainers target certain times of the year. I will also look at the sire stats to see if his progeny have a good 2yo strike rate and also whether they will like the ground. Generally that will give you a good idea of which ones have a better chance of success than others and at that point its either time to check the market or to get your lucky pin out! :P

[egg]

Re: Maiden help I don't mind backing in maidens especially 3yo ones. Certain stables like their horses to win their maidens before progressing upwards whilst others don't aim for the maidens as they're most likely running for a handicap mark over wrong distance etc. You can usually narrow the field down a half dozen just on that basis. Then with a bit basic pedigree knowledge and reading gallops reports etc you can get it down a few more. I tend to look to take on the short price ones with an e/w bet.

[mowgli77]

Re: Maiden help

Question for the advanced gamblers on here : how do you assess horses based on breeding? There are many of you on here who do your own tissue prices and frame your own for each race. How do you decide on the odds if they have never run before? Let's take a maiden race where the entire field are unraced. How do you determine which ones are fancied and which ones aren't. How can breeding determine the way a horse is priced up. I've been punting for many years and to be honest I know very little about the breeding aspect of the sport. Infact yesterday I looked at a horse called Abu Nayef ,owned by Jabber Abdulla ( Nayef / Queens Logic ). Given the dam and sire were Gr1 winners I would have automatically assumed the offspring would be a black type horse, however after 3 runs it was still a maiden rated in the 70s and eventually finished unplaced. Sometimes I see horses by Pivotal and Kyllachy both Gr1 sprinters producing middle distance horses, how does that work? I know there are some clued up punters on here who are already on horses like Mars and the unraced Hydrogen, how did you come to back these horses ante post even before they had run , was it the breeding? Where do I begin?

Foaling Dates: Every horse ages on 1st January but a horse foaled in January should be more physically forward than one foaled in May for example. Foal date is the birth date and is important for 2 year olds. You can see horses in the parade ring that look more physically forward than others but some look like they need to grow into their shells and are then described as "scopey". Cost at sales: I find this interesting. There is no guarantee that a horse costing x amount of pounds will run better than another costing a fraction of the price but people at the sales know what they are looking for usually and they got clever, taking in stopwatches etc to time a horse running a furlong or so. At Thirsk on Saturday there was a horse that cost £600 racing against others that cost thousands. The cheap purchase was at the back of the field as expected. If you buy a clapped out Ford Sierra for £300 and I race you in a £££ sportscar who do you think is going to win? Look out for the sales prices in the maiden races at York next week. I picked one out last year for several reasons, one of them sales price. Rivals cost around 20k at the sales, the one I fancied was about 300k. (It won easily) Trainer form first time out: Some have them ready early and others like to get a run into them and often aim for a win 2nd time out or you get trainers like Prescott that used to run a horse 3 times over 6f-7f and then step it up to 1m4f on handicap debut to see it scoot home. The handicapper got wise to that a long time ago. Trainers targetting specific races/courses: Stoute at Pontefract for example. The southern trainers have plenty of tracks down there to target like Newmarket, Ascot, Newbury so you have to take a 2nd look when they send a runner up north, especially when it's the only runner at the meeting. I used to also look for John Dunlop running his at Ponty. Race planners will often map out a route to a classic and take in the same maiden each year, look out for trainers with excellent records in certain races. Breeding: Have a look at this years Derby and you'll see plenty sired by Galileo. Certain sires just seem to churn out great horses year after year but there will also be flops, expensive ones at that. I can't remember if it was Solskjaer or Van Nistelrooy that cost a fortune and never lived up to the hype. Look at Noble Mission, half brother to Frankel yet seems spooked by noise, wears a hood, quite quirky and seems to idle out in front. If you ever buy the Weekender you can see the results for the previous week, a detailed analysis of the race but also a breeding analysis within that overall analysis. New Approach is producing some smart types and then we still have other horses like Sixties Icon at stud now. It depends what sort of horse you want, ideally you want a blend of speed and stamina for a middle distance horse yet you will see mares that are unraced used for breeding. I'm no bloodstock expert so not sure how they know those 2 horses will produce a good foal. There is a lot of guess work involved and pricing up a maiden is not easy but there are so many maiden races with false favourites that they can be worth exploring. You get loads of maiden races where a horse that was 2nd or 3rd last time out (in another maiden race) gets sent off a very short price next time out. You could probably make a few quid by laying these at short prices, not too much risk, especially when they are odds on. I've got a list of horses from recent maiden races to keep an eye on but they are in a previous Weekender at work so I'll try remember it tomorrow and I'll post them up just to see how they get on in the next 3 races or so and how they do over the season. I'm on Mars, Dawn Approach and Kingsbarns for the Derby, all separate bets (singles) and some in doubles. Looks like my Kingsbarns bet is a no go, possibly out for the season. I'm on Dawn Approach at 16-1 and I've got a 28-1 double on Dawn Approach to win the Guineas and Derby. All can be confirmed by anyone on here that has me on Facebook. I've got a Dawn Approach (Guineas 7-2) and Kingsbarns (Derby 5-1) double that looks dead in the water too. The Dawn Approach bets were placed last July but the doubts are in the pedigree as to whether he will get 1m4f. I don't go mad with ante post bets but pedigree plays a big part in these, more so on the flat than the jumps. Pick a maiden race over the weekend, try to price it up, give a line of reasoning for each runner and I'll do the same. See what sort of conclusions we come to. I've compared tissue prices with The Saint before (not for maiden races) and while some have been quite close others have been miles apart, it all depends how you interpret the info available to you. As others have said the market is a good guide, so are your own eyes if you're at the races and round the paddock and unfortunately I live nowhere near the gallops and don't have spies out with binoculars producing gallop reports although they do put some info in the Weekender. I quite like betting in maiden races, obviously never go mad and lump on but I'd prefer to bet in those than a 5f sprint that can sometimes be a lottery, heavily influenced by a draw. Egg has the right idea, oppose the short priced favs with an ew bet or back 1 or 2 against it instead, small stakes.

[mowgli77]

Re: Maiden help Have a look at the 6.20pm Ripon race for tomorrow (Friday 10th May). It's a maiden auction and the race conditions are as follows:

£5,000 guaranteed For 2yo sold or bought in as yearlings by public auction at 'specified sales', or as 2yo up to and including May 31st, 2013, £22000 or less before July 1st, 2012, or £25000 or less after June 30th, 2012 (The last sale to govern the price if sold more than once) Weights colts and geldings 9st 4lb; fillies 8st 13lb Allowances for each £2500 paid under £25000 1lb (For the calculation of allowances horses sold before July 1st, 2012, an additional £3000 must be added to the horses' auction price) Entries 15 pay £ 20 Penalty value 1st £3,234.50 2nd £962.50 3rd £481.00 4th £240.50

Conditions taken from RP website. Limited to horses up to 25k at the sales and then for every £2500 under that total you get a 1lb allowance plus a weight allowance for fillies. It was only £20 to enter a horse, 1st place gets £3k and 4th gets £240. Dotesy has raced twice, some may say the most experienced of the runners, I'd say the most exposed. Has been one paced and well beaten. Cost £3000 at the sales and is a February foal. Not related to 5f winners. Rosebay Coral ran here last time out, was sent off at 66-1 and was 9th and well beaten. Not related to 5f winners. Cost £11,000 at the sales in March, just £3k short of The Hooded Claw. April foal. Talksalot was 4200 Euros at the sales, has another maiden entry on 15th May, related to On The Piste that won 2nd time out over 5f but has been pretty poor and another relation that is 0 from 7. April foal. Tears and Rain, looks 2nd choice for Easterby based on jockey bookings and cost. 3000 Euros at the sales. Entered in Super Sprint at Newbury. April foal. The Hooded Claw, Easterby and Allan. Trainer has good record at Yorkshire tracks, won with Off Art on Saturday at Thirsk and has 4 winners in last 2 weeks. Cost £14,000 at sales yet it states not sold. Entered in Super Sprint (Newbury), Premier Yearling Stakes (York) and Redcar 2 yr old trophy listed race. Relations haven't won over 5f though. Easterby in form and does well 1st time out but The Hooded Claw is likely to be a short price fav. Tissue price on RP is 15-8, I can see it being shorter than that but this doesn't look a strong maiden race at all. Rosebay Coral has course experience, is race fit and may come on for the run last time out and was only 3k cheaper than The Hooded Claw. The above is just to highlight the sort of things to look out for when trying to price up a race like this. Hope it is useful for some. The RP forecast tissue is: The Hooded Claw 15-8, Dotesy 2-1, Talksalot 3-1, Rosebay Coral 8-1, Tears and Rain 10-1. At those prices I'd be looking to lay Dotesy. Very early prices on Betfair are: Dotesy 2.56, The Hooded Claw 2.58, Tears and Rain 5.3, Talksalot 5.5, Rosebay Coral 6.0 I like John Quinn as a trainer and Dotesy is a February foal so could be ahead of some of these physically and certainly fitness wise. It was never challenging the front 3 at Ponty and turned in at the 2f pole in 4th place and just stayed there. If I was pushed to pick a winner it would be The Hooded Claw but you take into account the risk v reward of backing an unraced maiden at odds of under 2-1. I'll be there tomorrow with Whoneedsrio so I'll have a look in the parade ring and might back The Hooded Claw. It will be interesting to compare the SP's to the RP tissue and the early Betfair prices as of now.

[Stakes n chips]

Re: Maiden help

Talksalot was 4200 Euros at the sales, has another maiden entry on 15th May, related to On The Piste that won 2nd time out over 5f but has been pretty poor and another relation that is 0 from 7. April foal.

I just noticed that his one has been gelded....so thought id mention that on the thread. Not sure myself though how much, if any, affect that op can have on a 2yo horse?

[mowgli77]

Re: Maiden help

I just noticed that his one has been gelded....so thought id mention that on the thread. Not sure myself though how much' date=' if any, affect that op can have on a 2yo horse?[/quote'] Mark Johnston has one that's been gelded later on in the card in another maiden, 190,000 guineas at the sales, was due to run once at end of last season, got worked up at the start and withdrawn. One to keep an eye on later tonight for sure. Sometimes the race planning leaves a lot to be desired, they sometimes have a fillies race followed by a load of horny colts that get worked up in the paddock and shoot their bolt before even entering the stalls. I saw it happen once at Ponty, short price fav, hard on all the way through the parade ring and finished down the field.

[Stakes n chips]

Re: Maiden help Thanks Mowgli - atleast it wont take too much observation work in the paddock to spot that situation if and when it occurs :ok

[Irishbugger]

Re: Maiden help Very interesting thread. I'm also a watcher of maidens with a lot of first time out runners rather than a punter. Used to be a big fan of placepots so would encounter the problems then. I simply picked the most expensive purchase and whatever Jack Berry (sprint king!) ran for my 2 selections ;) These days it would be more difficult, I'd probably go with most expensive purchase and the 2nd fav if there wasn't much money around for anything. That's just placepot selection though, I still don't back in them very often unless I've received word on one or saw a lot of money for one.

[mowgli77]

Re: Maiden help Just to update on last nights maiden in case ATR didn't show it or mention it. The Hooded Claw was really edgy in the parade ring. As he got to the corner of the parade ring (nearest where the Riponbet and William Hill bookies are) he kept getting spooked and was playing up, same point on about 3 occasions. I said to Whoneedsrio, let's stay here and minute and see what the horse is like when the jockey has to mount. Sure enough he played up again, bucking and stopping the jockey getting on at first. It went to post ok but then fell out of the stalls and had no chance. If you'd lay Dotesy as suggested you'd be in profit but the 1-2 home were the only ones with experience and Rosebay Coral was backable at around 7-1 on course. The Johnston horse that was 190,000 guineas was called Level Best. He looked an absolute picture in the parade ring and went round there fine. They took him onto the grass to mount him and he went to the start early and was ponied down. I'd noticed a jockey on a horse on the course in a coat but had no idea what he was doing, turned out it was to pony Level Best to the start. He went in the stalls with no fuss and broke well enough but either got snatched up or unbalanced and went from a prominent position to last in no time. A really disappointing run but maybe needs a track like York or Doncaster to be seen to best effect. Strange situation with Philip Makin replaced by Amy Ryan on the winner yet he was still at Ripon and rode after this race. Tony Hamilton was there too but didn't ride all of Fahey's horses.

[lucky2011]

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[lucky2011]

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[egg]

Re: Maiden help Nice Maiden today at Newbury 1.30 Stoutes runner is ridiculously short @ 7/4 given the stables represented. Obviously its because he's running a nigh on 30% strike rate the bookies are giving little value about his runners. Dare To Achieve ~ made fav for his run last year and finished 6th in a good maiden. bound to improve. 7/2 Saskatchewan ~ ran in Wood Ditton 9/2 and stayed on nicely over inadequate trip, much better trip today. 12/1 Retirement Plan ~ Sir Henry has won this race twice before, looks the part on breeding. 8/1 to name a few