BBOTD Wednesday 23rd April

[Blazing Bailey]

340 Punchestown - Rawnaq 10/1 Boylesports BOG This progressive horse has a slightly odd profile having only ran in one hurdles race this season with the rest being predominantly on the flat. However his last two runs over hurdles have worked out pretty well and give him a definite chance off of this mark. Even his prep run on the flat more recently has worked out pretty nicely and the conditions should be spot on for him tomorrow. This is a step up in class and my main concern would be that this is the amateur jockeys first race under rules but a lot of the field seem to be no hopers and the other horses I think could figure seem to have something going against them. The main danger will probably be Brian Who but the 8lb rise and softer ground that last time could make this a much tougher assignment than he win LTO.

[robertob]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 23rd April 15.55 Epsom: Spanish Duke @ 9/2 Boylesports Spanish Duke looks very well handicapped, is now down to 3lb below his last winning mark, when he won of 95 here at Epsom almost exactly two years ago. He goes well on fast ground as well as on this track, as besides his win, he finished 3rd and also an only 2½ beaten 6th against some tough opposition last year here. What makes him really interesting though is his comeback run which came at Pontefract a fortnight ago. He was slowly into stride and dropped in, trailing the field, which isn't the best position to be at that track, even more so in a race that wasn't run on a rattling pace. Turning for home he was in an impossible position and the only way to make ground was to turn wide. Once in a clear he really powered home in the closing stages, staying on as the only one from behind while a front-runner won it (Lady Loch). With a track much more to suit his running style, what Epsom clearly is, he should be very competitive on his second start this season, particularly with handicap mark and conditions in his favour. It's an obvious bonus that William Buick is booked for the ride.

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 23rd April Wed 24th Apr 2013 3.55 Epsom (10 runners) Looked long and hard at this one and it's a real toughie, but, a chance is taken on the lightly raced VALIDUS who has acquitted himself well LTO in a listed event at Kempton (been gelded since). This trip is an unknown but he goes well fresh and Kieron Fallon takes the ride who won on him at Kempton. VALIDUS 1pt WIN @ 11/2 (BOG - William Hill)

[corky]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 23rd April 1955 sedgefield 1pt win phase shift 5/4 bet365 in the form of her life at the moment,2 wins and 2 second in her last 4 races,and i dont think this is the best of races and has every chance in winning again, up 4lb for the latest win,but has a 7lb claimer on board,who it seems is capable of winning here,he has had 16 rides under these rules with 4 winners,but has had 5 runners for todays trainer ellison which he has had 3 winners,not a bad strike rate,lets hope he continues

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 23rd April 3.40 Punchestown Happy New Year 1pt EW @ 20/1 PaddyPower Going to give this handicap a go after a 4^th place in the big one today. When looking at the recent winners of this race, one thing that stands out is the race position of the winner and the placed horses. In every recent renewal of this race, the winner has raced prominently and has more often than not been ridden by a claimer. Happy New Year certainly fits the bill on both cases although the age stat would go against him. I have no doubts Happy New Year will be racing in the first few in this and will more than likely try and make all. Another positive with this horse is his jockey is his regular rider so clearly knows how to get the best out of him having ridden him to 2 of his 3 wins. Last year when this horse hit form, he did keep in form for a few runs, so I am hoping of the same this time around. He ran a good race at Fairyhouse last time out to finish 2^nd and only found Brian Who too good. The first 3 in that race pulled 16 lengths clear of the 4^th horse and that was a much better contest than this one. He is up in the weights for that effort, which will make life much tougher but he is tough and genuine and could keep going in front to nick a place. He is a CD winner and will handle the ground so hopefully he will give us a good run for our money.

[mattyrobinson]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 23rd April 5.30 Punchestown - Sir Des Champs 2/1 Hills This is a real top quality horse and while I respect that this is a tough race, I think he's the classiest by some margin. Outstayed at Cheltenham, he should appreciate the drying ground here so it would be surprising if Long Run were to reverse that form. Captain Chris is a bit of a worry as you never know what you're going to get from him, and First Lieutenant has obvious class. Back in Ireland though, and with Davy Russel back in the saddle I'd be very worried if I was backing anything else in this race tomorrow.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 23rd April Tipped this up a few times be it in BBOTD and also in the Saturday KO rounds. The 4yr old has been over Epsom twice in the past but yet to get a course win, he's also only got the one win under his belt on turf so that does give a little concern but he was a winner last time out be that at Wolves under Spencer. He won off 9-3 at Wolves and runs off a nice looking weight today off 8-7 again over the min trip, he's match fit and worth a bet in my world, jockey S W Kelly has to to get a win from him but gets the leg up for the 3rd time, he also sticks fuel in the tank and makes the journey for this one sole ride. ​2:20 Epsom - Sandfrankskipsgo. 0.5 E/w Bet @ 6/1 Bet365 ''BOG''

[smith17]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 23rd April 4.20 Punchestown: Viconte Du Noyer, 11/4 >Paddy Power, win Viconte Du Noyer is having his first start in Ireland having switched to Willie Mullins stable from France. His last race was 364 days ago when he won a hurdle race at Auteiul. The form of that race is quite good, with second placing in a couple of graded races, third winning nto and then placing in a listed race and fourth, Blood Cotil, who also transferred to Mullins, winning nto and then winning a grade 2. If Mullins has VDN in top condition for this then he should go close today. Trip and ground will suit. Andrew Lynch is in the saddle.

[last minute winner]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 23rd April 4:15 Catterick. Look On By @ 20/1 BOG hills. Hoping this horse may find another half dozen lengths or so now it's dropped in distance and had a little bit of assistance from the handicapper. Its first two runs of it's career came over 5f in class 5 company at Southwell and they were the two most promising of it's career. The horse now gets to run off 7lb lower than those first two runs and 2lb lower than it's last run at Wolves where it was clearly coming to the end of it's tether over 6f. Was running against two decent yardsticks for the grade that day in "The manx missile" and "Jordanstown" so, if it's 2 runs this season have just brought him cherry ripe he may outrun his odds. My gut feeling is that the horse is going to need a bit more help from the handicappers yet but in a race lacking strength in depth he's worthy of a wee punt.

[Smarty72]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 23rd April 15.40 Catterick - Alta Lilea - Win @ 2\7 PP BOG Short priced Mark Johnston runner in this conditions race. Only 4 runners and 2 look to have no chance at all (both available at 66\1). Was 4th last week at Newmarket in a listed race won by French runner Intello who looked very impressive. Lots of stamina in breeding and will surely improve for last weeks run. Can not see it getting beat.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 23rd April Catterick 4.45 King Kurt King Kurt's won twice on fast ground including a C&D win a couple of years ago. Last win was off 5lb higher than today & he ran well for second at Newcastle last week with a first time hood at 10f. Back up in trip & looks well handicapped & if the hood works again he can land a race that doesn't look like it would take much winning. Bet. 1pt win @ 7/2 Paddy power BOG. ​Rio.

[Ross1303]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 23rd April brockwell - Epsom - 2.50 - 7/1 William hill bog Does very much depend on being ready to go fresh but last years form figures make good reading. Good showing in class 2 last time it was seen and previous run was a win in similar grade to today. Dascombe and Kingscote also make a great pairing 1pt Win

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 23rd April 435 Perth: Kie (11/4 PP) Backed this last time when caught a cold by a well handicapped horse, only four runners here and cant work out why he's the 3rd fav? Ran a cracker when third at Aintree and didnt do too much wrong last time when he had a contested lead. If he can bowl along he will be hard to peg back although the Henderson horse can go forward in his races. Track will suit his style and i think he's a bloody good price all things considered.

[Boulder5111]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 23rd April S6.55 Zazamix e/w 25/1 Bet365 Hopefully there'll be no non runners in this 8 runner race because this looks like a good e/w shot with 3 places paid. It seems pretty clear that the horse has been racing on ground that's been too soft for it which has resulted in a plummeting handicap mark but I think the horse is definitely of interest here on better ground. It's also interesting that Henry Brooke is booked for the first time - he has an incredible 21% strike rate in hurdles races at the track (8 from 39) for a superb 54pt profit.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 23rd April 2.20 Epsom - 1pt win Taurus Twins @ 16/1 (VC) Speediest 5f around here so I like to be with one who I know has the pace for it and also has plenty of form downhill. Richard Price's runner fits both of those categories and it's a little bit surprising he hasn't run more often here as it ought to suit. He was 3rd over c&d this time last year off 4lbs higher and won off 6lbs higher a couple of starts later at Nottingham. Many of his efforts after that came on soft ground which isn't ideal (never won on worse than good to soft) and that's seen his mark come down. He was only beaten a head on his reappearance at Wolverhampton before racing on soft at Windsor last time so returns with better conditions today on a track that can suit his free-going style. He has a good temperament too which is ideal for here as he can be in the firing line throughout but not go down without a battle and is off a decent mark. Has the fitness edge over some of these and just generally looks better than a 16/1 shot.

[markmywords]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 23rd April 14:50 Epsom Perennial - Really would have liked this to drift out 1 more point to 7's to back EW but have no other selections and backed it on the nose. Has been gelded since last season and trainer/owner clearly have big hopes with this well bred horse. 4/6 career races have been in listed company. Dropping to a class 3 handicap for today and Ryan Moore booked for the steering. Perennial beat Enke on debut so hopefully will run fresh. Last 2 runs may be discounted as too far away from pace LTO and going too soft time before. Has a bit to find with Brockwell but Charlie Hills stables starting to click. 1pt win 6/1 W. Hill

[Irishbugger]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 23rd April 2.20pm @ Epsom 'Swiss Cross' 7/1 (Ladbrokes / BOG) This one went into my notebook a week ago when traveling strongly and being cut up, totally no room and heavily eased thereafter. Looked a likely winner at that stage and I have to have it today with the stronger handling of Fallon up top. It has form last season that ties in with the main competitors but may also have a fitness advantage over them today. 1 point win

[scotty657]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 23rd April 4.45 Catterick I went for King Kurt in his last run at 14/1 and he was very close to winning, losing by half a length. I couldn't go against him after that run and he's still off the same mark here. C+D winner and suitable ground here, will hopefully go well. King Kurt - 7/2 William Hill - 1pt win

[DC]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 23rd April 18:55 Sedgefield STROBE 12-1 general BOG firms I'm hoping the ground is good/good-firm as that is the key here. I have doubts over the nearly all the other horses in this race concerning the going and also the trip. Crude form analysis: Tahit Pearl + Groomed no wins over 2m. What's Up Woody + Magic Bishop + Alpha One never won on ground firmer than gd-soft. Favourite appears a bit short in the betting at his age so I'll side with Strobe who hacked up last time and can go on the conditions and over the trip at a decent price.