BBOTD Wednesday 20th feb

[bartrum]

1450 donc - zetenka - 8/1 pp This one is back down to a mark of 130 which he last won off. Mccoy also back on board who was the last jockey to win on him. Wont mind the trip or ground or grade and I am posting this now and taking a punt that the Easterby team smash into this one over night!!!

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 20th feb 3.45 Ludlow - Ultimate 9/2 Bet365 BOG I have been quite impressed with the form of this one's last two runs, firstly in behind Swing Bowler who ran so well at Newbury recently and then last week behind Ifandbutwhynot who I backed to win that race as I thought he was well in off a mark of 130. The top four to finish in that race all look progressive and the fact the selection fought well to finish second despite help setting a quick pace (also recorded a quick TopSpeed figure for those who use that in this discipline) amongst other front runners. He shouldnt have as much competition today and whilst there are a couple of potential improves I dont think this is a strong race and he should have too much for them if he runs to form.

[Binchy]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 20th feb 7.30 Kempton - Free Spin 13/8 Bet365 Graham Gibbons shows an impressive £67.98 profit to level stakes over the last five years when riding 4YO+ over 5-6 furlongs. He also shows a profit of £55.56 when riding 4YO+ horses for David Barron with a handy 29% strike rate.

[smith17]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 20th feb 15.35 Lingfield: Hard Walnut, 6/1 Bet365, win Hard Walnut won impressively lto over c&d. She made all and quickened well from over a furlong out to win by 4½L. Before that she finished second behind the re-opposing Upavon, again over c&d. She gets a pound extra today and, as she was only beaten a neck, I think it will be enough to reverse form. She could get an easy lead today, although a couple of the other runners have used frontrunning tactics once or twice before. Rookie trainer Olly Stevens has got off to a good start to his training career, with HW being his only runner so far. Jamie Spencer is in the saddle.

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 20th feb 7.30 Kempton - Elna Bright - 25/1 Bet365 E/W Wouldnt be surprised to see Free Spin p*ss this but if near his best Elna Bright has probably got the best chance of beating him. I'm hoping he's dropped in from his widish draw as he may struggle to settle if they bounce him out and put him handy. Nearly all his wins have come when held up and they've had him handy for all his recent starts. Dropped further in the weights and now in class 4 company with the small yard doing a good job with stable companion Picansort of late. Not one to put too much faith in, but the same could be said for a few of these as well as a few looking handicapped to the max. 25/1 is too big, smaller bet on Forest Edge who could dictate things here with not much pace on, tough ask from stall 11 though, better drawn and i'd be on much bigger.

[bartrum]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 20th feb Hi, just wondered where u got all those stats from... especially gibbons strike rate over 5-6f... Thanks

7.30 Kempton - Free Spin 13/8 Bet365 Graham Gibbons shows an impressive £67.98 profit to level stakes over the last five years when riding 4YO+ over 5-6 furlongs. He also shows a profit of £55.56 when riding 4YO+ horses for David Barron with a handy 29% strike rate.

[FedericoBTH]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 20th feb 7.30 Kempton (A.W.) FREE SPIN Extremely lightly raced maybe a little short on the pricing but still worth of consideration (already napped by a lot of tipsters and money is flowing on him). Lto on his first run for David Barron stable was second behind Light From Mars who won again since and the drop in trip should help him on keeping the 1st position this time. Graham Gibbons (20% at the track) mantains the ride and it could be enough. O'Gorman main danger but questions about the jockey and his real value. Back at 13/8 1pt Win (Bet365/#BOG)

[Binchy]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 20th feb

Hi, just wondered where u got all those stats from... especially gibbons strike rate over 5-6f... Thanks

Hi Bartrum, I used the Racing Post website for the stats. They break each Jockeys stats down level stakes profit loss and strike rate in areas such as Course, Distance, Type of Race, Month and Trainer. They then go even further by breaking it won into 2yo, 3yo and 4yo+. They also do this for each trainer. Of course, I think you need to be a member to view the information but I would say it is certainly worth it.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 20th feb 1:30 Lingfield - It's Only Business - Back tight little 3 runner race this and each runner has a chance in their own right, but I take It's Only Business to come out on top. He's won 3 ina row and has only lost once in 5 starts when wearing cheekpieces and I think he'll continue his impressive current form by winning again here 1pt win @ 5/6 Bet365 BOG

[whoneedsrio]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 20th feb Doncaster 2.50 Monkerty Tunkerty Veterans chase but Monkerty Tunkerty hasn't got many miles on the clock under rules & could still have some progress to make over fences. Won at Wincanton on Boxing day but then was held up & given a bit too much to do at Newbury & I'm looking for him being a bit nearer the pace today. Always Waining to warming up for the Topham. Why is Murphy on Prophete de Guye who looks a bit high in the handicap & not Swing Bill for boss David Johnson? Corkage likes the track but ran a shocker here last time. West end Rocker, Auroras Encore & Zitenka all have been out of form. Dashing George is better at shorter & Marufo needs proper good ground. Bet. Monkerty Tunkerty 1pt win @ 4/1 Bet365 BOG. Rio.

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 20th feb 325 Doncaster: Minella Forfitness (3/1 Bet365/PP) Really good novice hurdle here and seeing as i cant seem to pick my nose at the minute i'm siding with Nicky Henderson and Barry Geraghty who dont often leave Donny empty handed. Really liked the attitude of this horse when winning last time out from Zieder Zee and this track will suit. Ferguson has the fav New Years Eve and does receive weight but i'm not sure his overall form amounts to that much and the Henderson team should know where there at with the River Maigue form.

[corky]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 20th feb 1525 doncaster 1pt win minella for fitness 1pt win sjames winner over course last time out, and should be able to adapt to this shorter trip today,having won a bumper over this distance,more to come from this horse, holds a cheltenham entry,dont know if it is that level,you never know

[BARNSLEYCHOP]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 20th feb 2.40 LUDLOW SAGA DE TERCEY @ 7/1 bet365 Bog .5ew This horses record in class 4 and below on the flat and NH reads 1121172111 and back down to a class 4 for the fisrt time in 10 months today. This horse has been disappointing the year but ran in a decent race last time out and is now 11lbs lower than his last win, trainer has a good record historically in Feb with his hurdlers and good claimer takes off another 10lb. Drying ground would also help.

[Lodge]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 20th feb 2.40 - Ludlow - Saga De Tercey @ 7/1 Bet365 Quite fancied King Massini in this but i cant help but feel he's abit short now. I'll take him on with Saga De Tercey who certainly has the ability to win this. The top weight has been running in better company since rattling off a hatrick of novice hurdle wins last year and has now given a chance by the handicapper. Runs off 114, 11lbs lower than his opening handicap rating and has a 10lb claimer taking off some valuble weight. Blinkers re-applied and if running anywhere near the level of his form from last year will have a great chance.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 20th feb From NB Backed this one last time out ''28th Oct 2012'' when he made his debut and he ran a nice race of promise and went straight in the NB for the future. Horse and jockey were last seen at Aintree running over 2m 1f in a Bumper debut, they came home 4th that day but lost nothing in defeat, trained by Mr I.Williams and his his 5yr old bay gelding was a touch green back on Oct and if he has come on any amount he should know a lot more about the racing game and run another fine race. The course is unknown but he is sure to get the trip and i cant see the going be any problem, a big field head for post and a lots of them could be anything, we cant back them all, but i feel this is a stand out race for Mr Williams to test the pick on just how good he is, if he is good. Standout SOLE ride for jockey Sir Paddy Brennan. 17:05 Doncaster - Ghost of a Smile. 0.5 E/w Bet @ 9/1 Boylesports, BetVic, Stanjames, ''BOG''

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 20th feb 2.50 Doncaster - 1pt win Corkage @ 7/1 (Hills) Keith Reveley's horses are flying at the moment and this one has an impressive course record as well as being relatively youthful at the age of 10 in this veterans chase. The yard have had three winners and three places from their last eight runners and this one's course form reads 1132148. The 4th came when beaten 1/2l off 1lb lower in December and the 8th presumably saw something amiss last time (beaten a long way and given a rest since). He's also a horse who wants good ground so that's another excuse last time and it may pay to forgive him that. He therefore has conditions spot on for this and there's been bits of support in the market which bodes well considering the way he ran last time. This is fairly competitive but he has the ingredients for a big run and I'm hopeful he can enhance his already strong course record today.

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 20th feb *Dashing George > Doncaster 2:50 > WIN @ 11/1 VC BOG* Think this horse is backable at this price now, it was ultra-impressive last time out in same class, when bolting up by 9 lengths, albeit in a smaller field. However, I thought he should be around 5/1 for this race, and 11/1 is huge in my opinion. He has won over this trip, has conditions to suit, Joshua Moore is riding out of his skin lately and is a good 3 pound claimer. I think he will be able to have them all off the bridle turning for home, well here is hoping.

[last minute winner]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 20th feb 4:15 ludlow. Jupiter Rex 11/4 generally available. May not be the boldest of predicitions looking at the betting but l really think this horse is still many pounds well in. Absolutely mullered the rest of them at Taunton lto, giving very much the impression it would be even better over further. Venetia Williams horses are absolutely flying, she does very well with horses moving from hurdles to fences and the horse certainly acts on the ground which is not also the case with one or two of it's near market rivals who dont also seem to be sure to get the trip either.

[DC]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 20th feb Dorothy's Dancing 3.75 bog lads/paddy/coral Ran ok in a higher class race last time losing by half a length. Up 3lb for that performance but record at Lingfield very good (five course wins). Valdaw is up 10lbs effectively for previous win of half a length and is drawn 10. Questions over Amethyst Dawns fitness and Catalinas Diamond looks marginally too high in the weights off 65. Baker on decent enough form to boot this mare home today!

[Karijini]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 20th feb

Dorothy's Dancing 3.75 bog lads/paddy/coral

14:30 Lingfield

[Boulder5111]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 20th feb D3.55 Harveys Hope 1pt Win Won a 19 runner handicap LTO at the course and hopefully it can go close again stepping up in trip. The horse was a thorough stayer on the flat and hopefully the extrea distance will suit. That effort LTO was certainly an improved effort when upped in distance from its runs prior to that. The stable are going well and hopefully it'll be in the mix - the McCoy horse would be my main danger but this one has the better recent form.

[chris34]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 20th feb 7.30 Kempton Forest Edge quickly climbed the ratings towards the end of the year last year, still 3lb above last winning mark so may still just have hold of him. Also much better when able to get soft lead which not gonna be easy here especially from a wide draw. Free >SPIN is lightly raced ran a good race last time out after a 103 days off the track so entitled to come on for the run and that form looks strong given the winner has won off a 4lb higher mark since and 6^th also won at Southwell last week. He has been put up 2lb for that effort but the biggest concern is the drop in trip in a competitive handicap plenty short enough. Tioman Pearl has something to prove after disappointing when last seen and been off the track for over 200 days. Clear Praise is consistent but hard to win still 8lb above last winning mark. Ogorman is creeping back up the weights and is another that isn’t easy to win with and been off the track for 83 days which is a bit of a concern in a hot little race. Roy The Boy another that is consistent but is 12lb above his last winning mark and is currently paying for his consistency also not sure 6f will help. Sulis Minerva is frustrating me I am convinced she is capable off this sort of mark and has caught my eye a couple of times at Lingfield this winter. Slightly disappointing last time out over 5f but had previously ran best race for a while over 6f at Lingfield, not seen here at Kempton since winning impressively off a 3lb lower mark so could be interesting she is returned here. The race should be run to suit and would be no surprise to see her go close in this sort of race. 05pt e/w Sulis Minerva 8/1 >Hills

[markmywords]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 20th feb Gutted yesterday typed out on his own EW at 14/1 and bottled out last minute not sending and not backing got to work to see it had won. 20:30 Kempton Cuthbert - Placed last three times with this apprentice onboard in 0-60 handicap at Lingfield over 7F. Dropping to 0-50 company today so easier task but yet to run a goodun over course and distance. Should go well 0.5EW 7/1 William/Hill

[Tedthewolf]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 20th feb 8.00 KEMPTON~SEAQUEL 0.5 E/W 40/1 SJ~ A rag that has yet yo win on the flat was off the track for over 2 years before coming back in Jan has not run at this distance on the flat but has a couple of wins over hurdles at around 2 mile. Dual purpose yard who maybe getting it readyfor another crack over hurdles but ill have a crack here at a massive price yard still in fair form. Numen could also go well at a hughe price.

[DC]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 20th feb

325 Doncaster: Minella Forfitness (3/1 Bet365/PP) Really good novice hurdle here and seeing as i cant seem to pick my nose at the minute i'm siding with Nicky Henderson and Barry Geraghty who dont often leave Donny empty handed. Really liked the attitude of this horse when winning last time out from Zieder Zee and this track will suit. Ferguson has the fav New Years Eve and does receive weight but i'm not sure his overall form amounts to that much and the Henderson team should know where there at with the River Maigue form.

Nice one Billy (and Corky!) - Saw this one traded at 500 in-running , off to watch the race now!

[Karijini]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 20th feb Congrats to Wizzkid Walter, Whoneedsrio, Billy Hills, Corky, Last Minute Winner & Chris34 for having winning bets today. :ok Winners: :clap Wizzkid Walter 5/6 (4/5 ISP) Whoneedsrio 4/1 (11/4 ISP) Billy Hills 3/1 (9/4 ISP) Corky 3/1 (9/4 ISP) Last Minute Winner 11/4 (7/2 ISP) Placings 3rd: Chris34 8/1 (10/1 ISP) Placings 2nd: Danny Cash 11/4 (3/1 ISP), Binchy & FedericoBTH 13/8 (11/10 ISP) Good luck for tomorrow.