Serie A > 26th - 27th January

[Aidymac]

[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617] [TR=class: row1] [/TR] [TR] [TH=class: firstColumn]Saturday 26 January 2013[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [TH] [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Lazio v Chievo (17:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]9.6[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.08 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings, align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Juventus v Genoa (19:45 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.23[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]6.9[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]15[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.46 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings, align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Sunday 27 January 2013[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [TH] [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Bologna v AS Roma (11:30 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.1[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.85[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.3[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.71 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings, align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Atalanta v AC Milan (14:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.9[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.15[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.46 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings, align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Cagliari v Palermo (14:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.14[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.9[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.67 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings, align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Catania v Fiorentina (14:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.45[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]99.29 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings, align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Parma v Napoli (14:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.45[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.37[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.39 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings, align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Sampdoria v Pescara (14:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.8[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.7[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5.2[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.81 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings, align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Udinese v Siena (14:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.68[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.8[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]6.1[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.23 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings, align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Internazionale v Torino (19:45 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.57[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.9[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]8.1[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.62 % [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Mustafa]

Re: Serie A > 26th - 27th January Juventus - Genoa Genoa are inconsistent this season, but they do have a decent front line. They have managed to score in 8 out of their last 10 games. Moreover, they have managed to score in their last 4 away games against Juventus and in they have scored 2 goals in each of last 3 out of these 4 games. Both to Score @ 2.25 ​William Hill

[ThemanwiththeSTATS]

Re: Serie A > 26th - 27th January Bologna vs As Roma Important Stats: Bologna overs in 7 of 10 Home matches As Roma overs in 8 of 11 away matches. Roma also overs in 14 of 21 games overall. Met once this season Bologna beat Roma 3-2 away. Got burnt a bit last week with the fiorentina-napoli result but this game also screams goals and hopefully we see a typically open game that both teams have been producing this season. Over 3.5 goals @ $2.36 Betfair 3 points.

[Kumanovac]

Re: Serie A > 26th - 27th January At first sight, Both to Score in Cagliari and Catania games, HW of Sampdoria, possible surprise Siena X2...

[Simeon Borisof]

Re: Serie A > 26th - 27th January Lazio at home to Chievo.Lazio is the best playing home side.They managed to grab the poing in Torino last week even they were humiliated.With Hernanez and Klose they are pretty tough to break especially by team like Chievo(no offence)Chievo allows average about 2.5 goals when they are on the road not scoring in their last fixtures against Atalanta and torino.Now they face much more organized team such as Lazio which has allowed only 9 goals at home.I think the 3 points are very important for Lazio in this game given the fact that they cannot afford to lose some more points especially agains teams from the bottom of the table when they are at home.Don't know about major missings still early to place a bet but i think with Lazio's attack force and Chievo incapability to score on the road -1Ah is a good choice

[SALVO7ITALY]

Re: Serie A > 26th - 27th January Lazio v Chievo Lazio are unbeaten in 2013 and one of the form sides. Lazio have been pretty formidable at home this season losing only once and drawing three. Looking at Chievos away record - Only wins at Cagliari and Genoa (the rest losses) this for me is a home banker. The only thing that worries me here is Lazio haven't beaten Chievo at home for at least 8 years. 8 pts Lazio win Juventus v Genoa No value on Juventus here or over 2.5 goals as usually they sweep aside lower placed opposition with relative ease. With the exception on Sampdoria a few weeks ago that is but still went over 2.5. With a new manager in his first game is doesn't get any tougher than this. Genoa do seem to get the odd goal away from home though and value this is the anything of value. With the injuries Juventus have at the back this could happen on Saturday and with the new manager influence should happen BTTS 5 points

[aerodinamic]

Re: Serie A > 26th - 27th January I worth noticing that Lazio and Juve will play the second leg of the Coppa Italia semifinal in Tuesday. This might be because of Juve's busy European schedule. The fact is that after 29th Lazio has no other concerns than the Calcio. Although Petkovic said that now they are thinking about the game with Chievo I think that right now the biggest game for them would be the one when facing Juve. So I guess Lazio won't be a 100% motivated. I would also mention that Chievo have three draws in their last three visits to Lazio. Even though I still think they would somehow they will win the game I presume that Lazio will try to stay fresh. Chievo has just sold their first choice goalkeeper to Palermo.

[McNasara]

Re: Serie A > 26th - 27th January

Lazio at home to Chievo.Lazio is the best playing home side.They managed to grab the poing in Torino last week even they were humiliated.With Hernanez and Klose they are pretty tough to break especially by team like Chievo(no offence)Chievo allows average about 2.5 goals when they are on the road not scoring in their last fixtures against Atalanta and torino.Now they face much more organized team such as Lazio which has allowed only 9 goals at home.I think the 3 points are very important for Lazio in this game given the fact that they cannot afford to lose some more points especially agains teams from the bottom of the table when they are at home.Don't know about major missings still early to place a bet but i think with Lazio's attack force and Chievo incapability to score on the road -1Ah is a good choice

Lazio v Chievo Lazio are unbeaten in 2013 and one of the form sides. Lazio have been pretty formidable at home this season losing only once and drawing three. Looking at Chievos away record - Only wins at Cagliari and Genoa (the rest losses) this for me is a home banker. The only thing that worries me here is Lazio haven't beaten Chievo at home for at least 8 years. 8 pts Lazio win

Chievo is unbeaten at Olimpico (versus Lazio) in the past 10 years. Lazio is occupied with Cup clashes against Juventus these days. Gonzales (regular midfielder) and Klose (topscorer) are doubtful for home side. That's info in short why the value of Lazio is in doubt, IMO.

[ultravires]

Re: Serie A > 26th - 27th January I'm interested in Catania, Parma and Bologna this week. All potentially even matches, and the +0.25 line/draws are interesting me. Need to look deeper, but Bologna-Roma is probably the easiest to predict - GOALS.

[Fedar]

Re: Serie A > 26th - 27th January Juve - Genoa I think Juve is way over-valued here. I do smell tough affair for the old lady and even some likely upset. But given the huge over-valuation of Juventus, a handicap support for Genoa will do excellent job at good odds. Why do I think it is going to be hard for Juve?! First, they are missing a number of important players tonight - Pirlo, Giovinco, Matri, Asamoah, Chiellini. Up-front couple will be Quagliarella and Vucinic, but they have no reliable substitutes in case things go wrong, and playing "golden substitute attackers" at a later stage of the game has been a key weapon for Juve many times. Furthermore, Pirlo's absence is a huge blow for Juve creativity, as well as Asamoah's missing will affect their physicality and aggression. Also, Juve had a tough game with Lazio during the week, with even tougher return game coming within few days. Genoa seem desperate and very poor, but after investigating carefully their performance, one could see that they tend to do well away against top teams. They drew with Inter at Meazza, won at Olimpico against Lazio and narrowly lost to Milan after a late goal from Shaarawy. If we go to previous season, we see another tight loss away to Milan by 1:0, loss to Inter by 5:4, another win vs. Lazio and a draw to Juve themselves - 2:2. In fact, the H2H in Turin shows that the last three matches were very tight - 2:2 and two Juve victories with "3:2". Definitely Genoa does not seem like a boxing bag and a team to get easily battered. The Genovese also have got a new coach who is making his debut in Turin. As we all know, this fact often raises the motivation and has generally positive effect in the beginning on the whole team. I think Juve will have a lot of difficulties tonight and will probably sneak the victory by the odd late goal - 1:0 or 2:1. Asian Handicap Genoa +2 is nearly priced at evens, and it is a very good option because it takes three goal margin to get it beaten. Genoa AH +2 @ 1.90 (b365)

[Mojojo]

Re: Serie A > 26th - 27th January The Lazio match is interesting, on one hand they still seem to be underrated by the bookies, if it was Juve, Napoli, or the Milan clubs they would be in the region of 1.25 - 1.40 against opposition that are 2-0-8 on the road I reckon. Lazio are excellent at home but they arent as fluid or creative as some of the other top teams, solid organisation and reliance on the skill and creativity of a few players. According to Gazetta Konko and Klose may not feature which would be problematic. However , they still seem too 'obvious' a bet, they were quite lucky against Cagliari and it was a hard slog against Atalanta. They were fortunate again midweek against an alternate Juventus team, an even first half, but Juve dominated the 2nd half, Marchetti made two outstanding saves, woodwork came to their rescue ect, and now a big 2nd leg semi final to come in a few days. For me this is one to decide on in play

[Simeon Borisof]

Re: Serie A > 26th - 27th January

I'm interested in Catania' date=' Parma and Bologna this week. All potentially even matches, and the +0.25 line/draws are interesting me. Need to look deeper, but Bologna-Roma is probably the easiest to predict - GOALS.[/quote'] No Lopez,Destro and Lamela for Roma. 1.Roma have kept a clean sheet in their last 3 away matches against Bologna in all competitions. 2.Bologna have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 4 home matches against Roma in all competitions. These are just stats doens't mean that it has to happen that way but bear this in mind that over 2.5 is not so sure

[Dylan]

Re: Serie A > 26th - 27th January Don’t fancy anything for tonight’s games. Lazio as we’ve mentioned in these threads over the last few weeks have hardly been as imperious as their form suggests. They got lucky against Cagliairi with late goals and against Atalanta benefited from some woeful officiating. Last weekend, against Palermo they needed a late penalty to grab a point. The biggest concern is in attacking areas where they don’t look anywhere near as dangerous as they did before the winter break, and without Klose and the marauding runs from Konko down the right they may well struggle to break Cheivo’s now 5 man defence down. Hernanes has been relatively quiet in the last few weeks as well. Juve are way too short given that they are still missing a few key men, and have had a few stuttering performances of late. However Genoa, new manager or not still have the capacity to completely mess things up, and with the new man Ballardini likely to be implementing a new formation and one or two new players there is plenty of potential for things to go wrong for il Rossoblu. So despite the odds and Fedar’s excellent arguments I personally wouldn’t fancy backing them on a + handicap. In fact there isn’t too much that is jumping out at me right now for this weekend’s card. I did get a bit of success on backing draws last week so might take a look at the market again, with a couple of games standing out, the Parma vs Napoli match and Catania vs Fiorentina. Both Parma and Catania have great home records this season so should be confident of getting something from these games despite coming up against strong opposition. As Ultravires says these are potentially very even matches. As with last weekend it’s difficult to find much value for home wins, Samp and Udinese are too short in my eyes so the only two that jump out are Bologna and Atalanta where the prices seem about right. Atalanta are another team with a good record at home, and always tough to beat with their counter attacking tactics. I’m a little concerned for them having seen the excellent defensive four from last season either sold or picking up injuries in recent weeks, but they can at least bring new signing Canini in for this game, and I would fancy them to win the physical battle in midfield against a Milan side still without De Jong or Ambrosini. That should enable them to limit Milans supply into their forward three. When they do counter this Milan team will still be pretty shaky, with the midfield still relatively easy to bypass and if he’s on his game then Denis should be confident of having the strength to upset both Bonera and Zapata. I would however be looking to take some draw cover if I looked to back the Bergamo side. With Bologna it’s more a case of going against their opponents Roma, who have had a couple of tough battles with Inter this week which have taken their toll. Lamela, De Rossi and Marquinhos are all pretty likely to miss this match through injury or suspension and the GK Goicoechia is also a big doubt. These changes are likely to upset Roma’s rhythm both in attack and defence and having already taken 3 points off Roma at the Olimpico this season, Bologna will confident of taking points again I’m sure. As with Atalanta however I would like a bit of draw protection. Finally the price on Palermo looks much too high, and I’m likely to back them in some way. Palermo have had a ridiculously tough run over the last 7 or so games and for the most part they’ve managed to but in some decent performances despite not being able to pick up many points. The next few games look much easier on paper for them and I’m sure they will be looking to build on the result and performance against Lazio to get themselves on a good run and out of the bottom three. I certainly think that the signings that Gasperini has made are pretty astute, bringing in a number of defensive options with plenty of experience in the likes of Dossena, Aronica and Sorrentino. This should gradually shore them up defensively as they’ve been a little leaky up to now. If they can get a better defensive shape than it should give a bit more confidence to those attacking players to go forward and try to create as they do have some real quality and options in midfield and attack that haven’t quite been firing from them this season. Cagliari will have been glad to have turned the tide since the re-start after 9 games within a win but there are still look pretty inconsistent and if Gasperini can get a bit more stability then they’ll be in with a chance of picking up points here. I’ll confirm picks later on. Good luck to everyone having a bet on Serie A this weekend.

[Mindfulness]

Re: Serie A > 26th - 27th January I haven't got a lot to say this week other than it's a horror show of a card, I wont even bother posting my shortlist because I've already worked out that there's nothing worth taking AH wise. Looking forward to next week where hopefully Serie A will have 1 or 2 opportunities. Anything has got to be better than what the fixture machine has burped back in our faces this weekend. I'll echo what Dylan said and wish anyone making a play here good luck, you're gonna ruddy bloody need it!!!

[SALVO7ITALY]

Re: Serie A > 26th - 27th January Cannot believe lazio have rested so many first team players... Surely bet has to be double chance on chievo!!!

[Alexc]

Re: Serie A > 26th - 27th January

Juve - Genoa I think Juve is way over-valued here. I do smell tough affair for the old lady and even some likely upset. But given the huge over-valuation of Juventus, a handicap support for Genoa will do excellent job at good odds. Why do I think it is going to be hard for Juve?! First, they are missing a number of important players tonight - Pirlo, Giovinco, Matri, Asamoah, Chiellini. Up-front couple will be Quagliarella and Vucinic, but they have no reliable substitutes in case things go wrong, and playing "golden substitute attackers" at a later stage of the game has been a key weapon for Juve many times. Furthermore, Pirlo's absence is a huge blow for Juve creativity, as well as Asamoah's missing will affect their physicality and aggression. Also, Juve had a tough game with Lazio during the week, with even tougher return game coming within few days. Genoa seem desperate and very poor, but after investigating carefully their performance, one could see that they tend to do well away against top teams. They drew with Inter at Meazza, won at Olimpico against Lazio and narrowly lost to Milan after a late goal from Shaarawy. If we go to previous season, we see another tight loss away to Milan by 1:0, loss to Inter by 5:4, another win vs. Lazio and a draw to Juve themselves - 2:2. In fact, the H2H in Turin shows that the last three matches were very tight - 2:2 and two Juve victories with "3:2". Definitely Genoa does not seem like a boxing bag and a team to get easily battered. The Genovese also have got a new coach who is making his debut in Turin. As we all know, this fact often raises the motivation and has generally positive effect in the beginning on the whole team. I think Juve will have a lot of difficulties tonight and will probably sneak the victory by the odd late goal - 1:0 or 2:1. Asian Handicap Genoa +2 is nearly priced at evens, and it is a very good option because it takes three goal margin to get it beaten. Genoa AH +2 @ 1.90 (b365)

Official Juventus site has Matri and Giovinco involved, mate. http://www.juventus.com/juve/en/news/25jan2013_Convocati

[Fedar]

Re: Serie A > 26th - 27th January

Official Juventus site has Matri and Giovinco involved, mate. http://www.juventus.com/juve/en/news/25jan2013_Convocati

Sorry, the information yesterday in Italian press was that they won't make it, but obviously they passed the late fitness tests.

[Fedar]

Re: Serie A > 26th - 27th January

Juve - Genoa I think Juve is way over-valued here. I do smell tough affair for the old lady and even some likely upset. But given the huge over-valuation of Juventus, a handicap support for Genoa will do excellent job at good odds. Why do I think it is going to be hard for Juve?! First, they are missing a number of important players tonight - Pirlo, Giovinco, Matri, Asamoah, Chiellini. Up-front couple will be Quagliarella and Vucinic, but they have no reliable substitutes in case things go wrong, and playing "golden substitute attackers" at a later stage of the game has been a key weapon for Juve many times. Furthermore, Pirlo's absence is a huge blow for Juve creativity, as well as Asamoah's missing will affect their physicality and aggression. Also, Juve had a tough game with Lazio during the week, with even tougher return game coming within few days. Genoa seem desperate and very poor, but after investigating carefully their performance, one could see that they tend to do well away against top teams. They drew with Inter at Meazza, won at Olimpico against Lazio and narrowly lost to Milan after a late goal from Shaarawy. If we go to previous season, we see another tight loss away to Milan by 1:0, loss to Inter by 5:4, another win vs. Lazio and a draw to Juve themselves - 2:2. In fact, the H2H in Turin shows that the last three matches were very tight - 2:2 and two Juve victories with "3:2". Definitely Genoa does not seem like a boxing bag and a team to get easily battered. The Genovese also have got a new coach who is making his debut in Turin. As we all know, this fact often raises the motivation and has generally positive effect in the beginning on the whole team. I think Juve will have a lot of difficulties tonight and will probably sneak the victory by the odd late goal - 1:0 or 2:1. Asian Handicap Genoa +2 is nearly priced at evens, and it is a very good option because it takes three goal margin to get it beaten. Genoa AH +2 @ 1.90 (b365)

Juve-Genoa 1:1. Upset predicted, bet won! :ok

[longy70]

Re: Serie A > 26th - 27th January

Juve-Genoa 1:1. Upset predicted' date=' bet won! :ok[/quote'] Well done Fedar i followed your advice with this bet :) Cheers:ok

[SALVO7ITALY]

Re: Serie A > 26th - 27th January Catania v Fiorentina Fiorentina have only lost to Udinese, Roma and Inter away from home this year and I don't class Catania in this bracket. So can definitely see Fiorentina getting a results. Fiorentina have also scored in every away game this season. Catania have only lost to Milan and Juventus at home this season and I don't class Fiorentina in this bracket. Catania are also on 2 game win streak which is longest all season with there only other win streak at one game. Therefore this has draw written all over it for me. Draw - 8 points BTTS - 7 points 1 - 1 2 points as a cheeky punt. Parma v Napoli Parma always seems to score against big boys at home - Juve, Inter, Roma, Milan, Fiorentina, so can so different here as Napoli's defense can be easily exploited. Historically Parma v Napoli have enjoyed themselves in some open contests against Parma and have not failed to score against the Gialloblu for just over 15 years. After todays results Napoli know how important this game is but without Maggio and Berahmi I think the draw might be the best result we can hope for. BTTS - 8 points

[ultravires]

Re: Serie A > 26th - 27th January I find it hard to provide reasoning for draws, as a lot of it comes down to a general feeling for me. I'm thinking to swerve Bologna-Roma, as I tend to poo my pants and bottle goal lines in and around 3.5. Bologna can definitely get a win in this one, in what is an unpredictable match. I'm also kind of sick of going against my team recently. My feelings toward a match being a draw always feels largely down to a gut feeling, so reasoning is a little bit harder to give. Parma are unbeaten at home this season and have developed a very efficient style of play. They are well balanced and possess an in-form strike force right now. Napoli have been strong out the gate since the break, so I wouldn't be surprised if they picked up the win. It would be very well earned, and they would be delighted, such is the problem posed by Parma at the moment. Draw - 3 points - 3.30 - Bet365 Catania are also a very decent side. If they had Lodi in midfield I'd probably be going in on them to win. They have a great home record and have put in some very resolute displays over the season. Fiorentina are in a big funk right now. The neat passing is still evident, but it hasn't really been going anywhere lately. Their penetration of the opposition penalty area is poor. Jovetic is trying too hard, and trying to do too much, while beggars belief that Toni is still playing at this level. I've always hated watching him play, but it's excruciating recently. They still have a decent D, and won't get pushed aside in this one, but I see them struggling to make an impact. They're very good at set-pieces so I could see that being a threat. In short, Fiorentina have lost their groove and I don't think they'll win in this one. Catania +0.25 - 1.875 - 5 points Draw - 3.25 - 1 point I think thats me for the weekend. Atalanta are tempting to bag a draw, but I don't have the confidence in their D this season. A narrow Milan victory perhaps. Best of luck to everyone - it is a tough card.

[TotoSchillaci]

Re: Serie A > 26th - 27th January

Juventus - Genoa Genoa are inconsistent this season, but they do have a decent front line. They have managed to score in 8 out of their last 10 games. Moreover, they have managed to score in their last 4 away games against Juventus and in they have scored 2 goals in each of last 3 out of these 4 games. Both to Score @ 2.25 ​William Hill

Well Done Mustafa good odds aswell

[Fedar]

Re: Serie A > 26th - 27th January Bologna - Roma Roma are terrific goal-scorers, Bologna have some excellent forwards and the two teams produced a goal spectacle in Rome in September - 2:3 to Bologna. However, I think that on Sunday it is not likely to see many goals and I intend to make use of the habit of both bookies and punters to price unders too high just upon hearing the name of Roma. In fact, 3 out of the last 5 games of Roma away from home have been under 1.5 goals - a 1:0 win at Pescara and two 1:0 losses vs. Catania and Chievo. Meanwhile, they registered two overish away games, but the first one was against Napoli (4:1) - no point of comparison, as it is a match with entirely different complexity, and the second one was a 3-1 victory against Siena - after two late Roma goals beyond the 85th minute. Bologna create the impression of being more overish team at home - 4 out the last 5 games have been over 2.5. Nevertheless, most of these overs have been against team much different in style and class with Roma - Chievo, Palermo, Atalanta, etc. I think that against giallo-rossi, Bologna will be much more careful and protective. I also believe that Roma will respect the excellent home form of Bologna and will not disregard their defensive duties for the sake of total attacking football. The H2H also supports such thesis - the last 4 games in Bologna went under 2.5. As I said in the beginning, "unders" are sometimes very underestimated when Roma plays. Therefore, we are offered the convenience to take a safer bet at a very good price - under 3 at evens! Which means that our bet will be void in case that exactly three goals are scored! Under 3 @ 1.975 (bet 365)

[vlaso]

Re: Serie A > 26th - 27th January Samp is not so good in home (3w 2d 5l) but I think that they will do a great game vs Pescara tomorrow to get out of the relegation zone. Only important player that is unavaible is Enzo Maresca, but today will come back Maxi Lopez (one of the most important player). On the other hand, Pescara is going through a dark period, tomorrow Modesto (15/0), Weiss (18/3), Quintero (14/1) and Jonathas (12/1) are unavaible. remember that Pescara have also a bad record away home (2w 1d 7l) )samp win.Good luck :

[Dylan]

Re: Serie A > 26th - 27th January Some excellent picks from Fedar and Mustafa on the Juve vs Genoa match last night, well done guys.

I did get a bit of success on backing draws last week so might take a look at the market again, with a couple of games standing out, the Parma vs Napoli match and Catania vs Fiorentina. Both Parma and Catania have great home records this season so should be confident of getting something from these games despite coming up against strong opposition. As Ultravires says these are potentially very even matches.

I’ll be joining Ultravires in taking both these draws as per my earlier post. With Parma their record is so strong at home, being unbeaten in the last 15 games that it would actually be a surprise if they lost. However for the most part they don’t tend to blow away teams at the Tardini and this season they’ve drawn with Juve, Milan and Fiorentina, whilst scraping one goal wins against Roma and Inter. There are still some doubts over a few players at the moment, with Biabiany and Valdes only just returning to full fitness and if they are without either of these it would limit their ability to create chances. They’ve also just sold regular centre back Zaccardo to Milan, which might slightly unsettle what has been a pretty steady back three pairing all season. Napoli are still a little patchy on the road, and have been under Mazzari for a few seasons now. They are of course a threat but without Maggio and the suspended Behrami for this one they will lose a little strength in midfield and Parma may be able to limit the amount of possession they have. I can see a 0-0 here to be honest. Parma vs Napoli Draw 3.40 at Bet Victor (2 / 10 units) Fiorentina are going through a difficult patch at the moment following the re-start of the season, and are without a win in all 4 league and cup matches in January. One of the key reasons for the sluggish start to the year has been the loss of Pizzaro and he’s missing again for this match. I’ve been reading that Montella is hoping to start Ljacic up top rather than Toni and that’s going to mean a reduction in forward threat in favour of someone who is essentially another attacking midfielder and clearly Montella is focusing on trying to maintain possession and limit time and space in midfield mindful of the threat that Catania offer when they have a bit of either of these. Given that both Lodi and Almiron are out for the home side this may be a tactic that could have some success and its being suggested that Catania might go to a 4-5-1 rather than the normal 4-3-3 so get more bodies in midfield as well. Assuming they do then both teams may cancel one another out. Catania vs Fiorentina Draw 3.30 at Bet Victor (2/10 units)

Finally the price on Palermo looks much too high, and I’m likely to back them in some way. Palermo have had a ridiculously tough run over the last 7 or so games and for the most part they’ve managed to but in some decent performances despite not being able to pick up many points. The next few games look much easier on paper for them and I’m sure they will be looking to build on the result and performance against Lazio to get themselves on a good run and out of the bottom three. I certainly think that the signings that Gasperini has made are pretty astute, bringing in a number of defensive options with plenty of experience in the likes of Dossena, Aronica and Sorrentino. This should gradually shore them up defensively as they’ve been a little leaky up to now. If they can get a better defensive shape than it should give a bit more confidence to those attacking players to go forward and try to create as they do have some real quality and options in midfield and attack that haven’t quite been firing from them this season. Cagliari will have been glad to have turned the tide since the re-start after 9 games within a win but there are still look pretty inconsistent and if Gasperini can get a bit more stability then they’ll be in with a chance of picking up points here.

Both those draws offer real value in my eyes and the only other match that is jumping out price wise is this Palermo match. Palermo are steadily building confidence and a better team with the players they have brought in and with the managerial nous of Gasperini I’m expecting to start rising up the league over the next few weeks. Cagliari are a tough team to get a grasp on and whilst they’ve done ok in the last couple of matches, like Palermo they are coming of the back of a poor run that saw them without a win in nine games. Both teams then are short of any real form and great deals of confidence and with both teams at near full strength this one could go either way. The odds however don’t reflect this view so I’ll take a punt on; Palermo +0.5 1.93 at Bet Victor (2 / 10 units) :hope

[gogoto]

Re: Serie A > 26th - 27th January Me too... joining Ultravires and Dylan... but would like to add Inter-Torino to the draw-chain. Just had a look on their last 5 matches. Both played against Genoa and Pescara (within a week). Both got the same result: 1-1 (Genoa) and a win 2-0 (Pescara). Only difference: Inter was playing at home and Torino away!!!!!

[vlaso]

Re: Serie A > 26th - 27th January :nanasamp

[Dylan]

Re: Serie A > 26th - 27th January Absolute heartbreak for me today with late winners in both the Catania and Parma matches. Still at least Palermo came up trumps to keep losses to a minimum. -2.14 units. Better shouts by both Ultra and Salvo7, with the BTS and the Catania +0.25. Good stuff guys.

[ultravires]

Re: Serie A > 26th - 27th January Really unfortunate with both draws dropping late in Dylan. Fortunately I had the +0.25 line to bring me a slither of profit. There were some good shouts on a tough card though. It's beyond a joke now with Roma. Zeman has to go I think. Although Cavani ****** a bet, it is cool that Napoli are keeping pace - just. i fancy Torino to get something tonight, but I'm not sure about going in. If +1 is available then I'd be very tempted.

[Kumanovac]

Re: Serie A > 26th - 27th January

At first sight' date=' Both to Score in Cagliari and Catania games, HW of Sampdoria, possible surprise Siena X2...[/quote'] Three out of four, I didn't have time to write a good preview. And again Udinese got undeserved win, by playing a dull match. I expect a bad run from them in the next weeks. Sampdoria was the game in which I had the most confidence. They have a great squadra, De Silvestri, Obiang, Icardi, Eder, Lopez, Poli... I expect a good run from them, they should have gained some momentum.