jonjo Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 Re: Trading Horses In Running Please show me what has been fabricated? I made an alteration to the post pre-race, not after the race. The odds on Warbond yesterday were exactly as described, he DID hit a low of 18 before the race before drifting back out again to its BFSP of 28. Please take a look at the selection on the 9th of January where the horse did indeed trade from its BFSP but because I had taken a lower price I described it as not having been a trade. You cannot use the BFSP as you place your bet well in advance of the race normally. If I take 10 and its gambled on into 6 before the race and goes of at a BFSP of 6, then I couldnt care less if it goes any lower in runing or not - the trade has already been acheived. If this thread is going to cause problems then I will gladly cease posting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Don't think it's causing problems... I was just asking which one was a faller n that. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Re: Trading Horses In Running Guys, give Jonjo a break, he is not posting long and is causing nobody any harm. Let him find his feet first! I was online yesterday when he put his selection up, and it was fine. You can't use Betfair SP when trading Jay, come on!!! Carry on Jonjo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjo Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 Re: Trading Horses In Running I will try to trade on Strike Force on the 4.40 at Wolves this afternoon. He went very close last time beaten just a head and a short head into third place, is 1lb better off with the second placed horse one Scoop Or Two and he goes very well for this apprentice. Backed at 6.2 on Betfair leaves me needing a lay off price of 4.2 to ensure a 30% all green profit or 100% should the gelding manage to get his head in front. Good luck today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longy70 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Re: Trading Horses In Running Looks good stuff this Jonjo, take no notice of some of the negative posts from above some of the prices on Betfair that can be taken prior to the off are much higher than the rip off bookies offer. The movement of price in running is ridiculous sometimes, so a back prior to the off and a Lay in running can very often and easily be achieved. the knack is to find the right horse. Will follow with interest. Good luck:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I don't think there was anything negative concerning the edited post mentioning a faller. It looks as if maybe one fell and was then edited out - just interested to kno if that was the case or not? Asking because I am interested in the thread/technique as opposed to being negative... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longy70 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Re: Trading Horses In Running I don't think there was anything negative concerning the edited post mentioning a faller. It looks as if maybe one fell and was then edited out - just interested to kno if that was the case or not? Asking because I am interested in the thread/technique as opposed to being negative... Sorry Saint i wasnt really directing it at your posts it was more at the mention of fabricating on other posts. love the idea of this type of trade though as i said earlier some of the price swings on Betfair in play are ridiculous. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Re: Trading Horses In Running Jonjo, make sure you don't edit posts anymore, to save confusion. We'll leave it there Saint. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjo Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 Re: Trading Horses In Running Hi Saint. Sorry for not replying to you earlier. Yes the horse fell, so was a losing trade. I made a cock up of the post as you could tell but at least I left it in no doubt that the horse had fallen. I will post a P&L on these at the end of each month. Providing it lasts that long of course. There is always a danger when posting these type of selections early that the price will drift, Strike Force has been available at 6.6 since I took my 6.2, but 6.2 it is, that's what I've got. Getting the right price is the hardest job in trading, but even when you get the wrong price you have three options 1. You can take a loss if you feel it may not trade in running from the bigger price that you missed. 2. You can adjust your lay off price so that you trade out at the price you first took, so as to get out of the trade altogether with neither a loss or a profit. 3. If its a confident selection you can still leave it to go in running and either get your trade or not. Win or lose, I like trading and the challenges that it poses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Sorry Saint i wasnt really directing it at your posts it was more at the mention of fabricating on other posts. love the idea of this type of trade though as i said earlier some of the price swings on Betfair in play are ridiculous. :ok No apology required mate - was just honestly interested to know what happened!! Went through my 2012 results to see if this method held any water for my selections and although it wouldn't have made as big a ROI as straight win bets, there were very few losing bets/trades. There were a couple on unseats on leaving the stalls though. I don't bet on the jumps but over time I wonder if flat races might be the way forward for the OP? Possibly not. With exchange crashes and the potential of fallers and horse being left in the stalls I think I'll pass - but a good thread all the same. Good Luck to u and Jonjo - although get some P&L up Jonjo!!! Would make it a much better thread IMHO!! :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Hi Saint. Sorry for not replying to you earlier. Yes the horse fell, so was a losing trade. I made a cock up of the post as you could tell but at least I left it in no doubt that the horse had fallen. I will post a P&L on these at the end of each month. Providing it lasts that long of course. There is always a danger when posting these type of selections early that the price will drift, Strike Force has been available at 6.6 since I took my 6.2, but 6.2 it is, that's what I've got. Getting the right price is the hardest job in trading, but even when you get the wrong price you have three options 1. You can take a loss if you feel it may not trade in running from the bigger price that you missed. 2. You can adjust your lay off price so that you trade out at the price you first took, so as to get out of the trade altogether with neither a loss or a profit. 3. If its a confident selection you can still leave it to go in running and either get your trade or not. Win or lose, I like trading and the challenges that it poses. Great post Jonjo - keep up the good work m8. Am enjoying the thread and an insight into your thinking and the psychology involved is a massive help. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjo Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 Re: Trading Horses In Running The crashes on Betfair are few and far between these days although I have suffered from them in the past. I generally stick to the flat but do stray to the NH sometimes, and as you say, fallers are a problem - as I have found out, but in the long run if you find 'sound jumpers' than I still think that there is a profit to made from trading NH horses. Overall the form study you do to find trading horses is similar to that of studying form to find winners or lays and any flat horse that has been 'left in the stalls' or 'started slowly' are normally left out of calculations unless its 10f+ and they are proven 'come from behind' horses. Hope you have a great day, and thanks for your comments, much appreciated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longy70 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Re: Trading Horses In Running No apology required mate - was just honestly interested to know what happened!! Went through my 2012 results to see if this method held any water for my selections and although it wouldn't have made as big a ROI as straight win bets, there were very few losing bets/trades. There were a couple on unseats on leaving the stalls though. I don't bet on the jumps but over time I wonder if flat races might be the way forward for the OP? Possibly not. With exchange crashes and the potential of fallers and horse being left in the stalls I think I'll pass - but a good thread all the same. Good Luck to u and Jonjo - although get some P&L up Jonjo!!! Would make it a much better thread IMHO!! :) No worries mate Tend to agree with ya on the jumps side, would be more confident doing this on the flat or All weather,I think not geting too greedy with the lay price is also important:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjo Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 Re: Trading Horses In Running Strike Force was available to back as high as 10.5 at one stage and went off at 9.8 which meant that you would have needed an in running price of just 6.8 to achieve a 30% all green or 100%+ should he have won. As it was my 6.4 needed 4.2 in running and he went as low as 1.01 in the win market and of course went on to win the race, which resulted in a profit of 115% or so after commission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longy70 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Re: Trading Horses In Running Strike Force was available to back as high as 10.5 at one stage and went off at 9.8 which meant that you would have needed an in running price of just 6.8 to achieve a 30% all green or 100%+ should he have won. As it was my 6.4 needed 4.2 in running and he went as low as 1.01 in the win market and of course went on to win the race' date=' which resulted in a profit of 115% or so after commission.[/quote'] Well Done Jonjo nice trade:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjo Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 Re: Trading Horses In Running Trying a trade on Scottish Lake in the 3.30 race today. He has a cracking all weather record especially so on Polytrack and after running well from his new mark at Southwell last time should go well again today. Backed at 7.4 leaves me needing an in running mark of 5 to give an all green profit of 30% or 111% if he wins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjo Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 Re: Trading Horses In Running A point and a bit won yesterday but a full point lost today. Scottish Lake went off at 9 and traded down to 6.4, I needed it to go down to 5 as I took just 7.4. 1 point lost Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flakey Dove Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Re: Trading Horses In Running Hi Jonjo, was watching with interest, thought you were unlucky today. I thought it traded to about 6 but Timeform have it down as 7, seems that you cant trust the Timeform site anymore, not since the last upgrade anyway. The one that won yesterday drifted as well but was a nice winner for you. I wish you well with this venture. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjo Posted January 24, 2013 Author Share Posted January 24, 2013 Re: Trading Horses In Running In the 4.00 at Kempton Arabian Flight has been going well since switching to this yard and is the one I'm taking to trade for me today from 9.2, leaving me needing an in running price of 6.4 to get to m y 30% profit mark or 112% should he win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flakey Dove Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Re: Trading Horses In Running Not into trading...yet..but have decided to have a go at this, just to small stakes mind you. I've got 8.6 so guess I need a lower lay off price? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjo Posted January 24, 2013 Author Share Posted January 24, 2013 Re: Trading Horses In Running If you are serious then yes, you will need to lay off at 6.0. Hope you have a good one!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjo Posted January 24, 2013 Author Share Posted January 24, 2013 Re: Trading Horses In Running Before the off and Arabian Flight has already traded as low as 6. Comfortable trade and now it would be nice if he won!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjo Posted January 24, 2013 Author Share Posted January 24, 2013 Re: Trading Horses In Running Arabian Knight traded down to 3 in running, finishing third. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flakey Dove Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Re: Trading Horses In Running Very nice. Just as said, made my 30% trading out at 6, wish I had of tried for more though. Thank You. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjo Posted January 26, 2013 Author Share Posted January 26, 2013 Re: Trading Horses In Running In the 2.15 at Wolves Suis Minerva is well capable in this grade and should run well enough to get us a trade. Backed at 10.5 leaves me needing a lay off price of 7.4 pre race or in running to give me a 30% profit or 107% should she win. Cheltenham in the 4.10 and Saddlers Cross goes very well when fresh, backed at 29 leaving a lay off pre race or in running of 21 for a 30% profit or a profit of 171% should he win. Have a great day everyone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjo Posted January 26, 2013 Author Share Posted January 26, 2013 Re: Trading Horses In Running Suis Minerva a poor choice, drifted and a full point loss. Saddlers Cross has already reached 21 before the off so .3 of a point recovered. Would be nice if he could win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjo Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 Re: Trading Horses In Running The trade today is on Ishigunnaeatit in the 1.20 at Kempton. Two course runs and two seconds shows he likes the course, effectively running for a handy mark of 57 with the 7lb claimer on board, I'm hoping he goes well enough to trade. Backed at 17 leaves me needing an in running or pre race trade off price of 12 to make either 30% or 152% should he win. Good luck today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjo Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 Re: Trading Horses In Running Ishigunnaeatit went off at 27 and traded as low as 19.5, enough for a trade 0f 30%+, another one thats difted and traded from the BFSP but not enough to trade from the early prices for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Re: Trading Horses In Running Ishigunnaeatit went off at 27 and traded as low as 19.5' date= enough for a trade 0f 30%+, another one thats difted and traded from the BFSP but not enough to trade from the early prices for me. Not sure how long you have been playing these tactics Jonjo or how many trades you have to look back on but might it benefit you to play at the Off or at BSP. To my eye, the horses IR low has a relationship with the BSP it went off at. I dare say, if the above did go off at 17.0 you may well have made your trade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjo Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 Re: Trading Horses In Running You may well be right. The long run will tell us more. On my opening post I said I subscribe to a trading service that's doing me proud and has done for quite a while, when I'm given those selections I follow the markets and try to predict when the price has 'topped out' and then take my price. The idea of this thread is to see if I can find the selections and do it myself without the help from others. What I'm finding is that its difficult to post a long time in front of the race and get the price right!! Quite a few that I've posted so far have drifted to a much bigger price than I took at the time of posting and then traded from the 'bigger price' but not the price that I took. I'll post a P&L at the end of the month and see how it goes from there. Cheers for you input, much appreciated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.JPG.8c5a15b710f7a4188ce438df64354c1e.JPG)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.