BBOTD saturday 29th december

[corky]

post this early,busy day at work tomorrow 1445 newbury 1pt win clawdaw kaempfer 13/8 betvic had this one down for future reference when it won at fairyhouse in april,it then cantered in a race for new trainer at aintree has won since, and this tricky race could see it come out top again,hope so as i think it is a horse for cheltenham

[corky]

Re: BBOTD saturday 30 december can someone change the date please cheers

[Smarty72]

Re: BBOTD saturday 29th december 14.45 CLONDAW KAEMPFER 1pt Win 13/8 Bet365 BOG Good Listed win last time and is 2 from 2 over hurdles. Won first time over hurdles over 2m 4f so the extra furlong will be no problem on Saturday. Both wins on soft so should be no issues with the heavy ground. Small but competitive field but expect Donald McCains top novice hurdler to show his class.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: BBOTD saturday 29th december 255 Doncaster - Fill The Power 5/1 BetFred BOG The form of this horses last run seems to be working out very well. He only just failed to get up against Wyck Hill who romped home in a listed race NTO, the 4th has subsequently placed off 127 in a C2 hcap and the 3rd was rated 130 at the time. The front two pulled a few lengths clear in that race and I wouldnt be surprised if this lightly raced type took some beating again. Conditions look to be fine for him, as that last run was on soft, but heavy is a an unknown. Of the rest, Richards Sundance definitely has a chance and whilst he acts on this type of ground I think he is better when its a bit firmer, Safran De Cotte doesnt necessarily look well handicapped, Triptico could be a real danger but I would worry about him getting the trip on this ground (same applies to Brunswick Gold) and Handtheprizeover is interesting with a feather weight but I would be worried about the bounce factor, especially stepping up in grade.

[Stevet1859]

Re: BBOTD saturday 29th december 2:10 Newbury: Midnight Haze 1pt win 20/1 Boylesports Midnight Haze gets an ease in grade and a little respite from the handicapper so he is now only two pounds higher than his last win. He is also reunited with Jason Maguire who has been in the saddle for three of his five career wins. The trip and going should not be a problem. Kim Bailey has a decent record with his chasers here, (four from ten) and Midnight Haze could go well at a price.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD saturday 29th december 12.30 Newbury - 1pt win Simply Ben @ 15/2 (PP) Nick Mitchell's runner looks very interesting to me as he goes handicapping over fences for the first time. He's still lightly-raced in general - having had just eight starts to date - but appears especially of interest over the larger obstacles. It hasn't taken long for connections to put a fence in front of him and he looks to have the scope to progress off this mark in chases. He was a good third to Ambion Wood in a novice hurdle last season prior to getting off the mark but was out of his depth in a Grade 2 at Haydock subsequently. Was only beaten 1 3/4l in a handicap off a mark of 115 on his final start of the campaign and that came on good to soft ground. He seems to relish testing conditions so the fact he runs off 117 today gives me every confidence in him. On appearance it looks like anything he did over hurdles would be a bonus as he's a chaser on looks so I reckon he'll prove better than a 117 horse when he gets his conditions. He shaped as if needing the run over hurdles on his seasonal reappearance and had no chance of beating the speedier Highland Lodge and Our Father on his chasing debut. However, he showed he could jump (albeit he was a little inconsistent at times) and stayed on really well on the ground (pulled 25l of the fourth having been last of the bunch down the back straight.) Although the drop down to 2m6f wouldn't be ideal, he'll certainly be staying on and he handles the ground better than most. The track will suit and if he doesn't get too far back I think he'll go very close.

[smith17]

Re: BBOTD saturday 29th december 12.30 Newbury: Arbeo, 15/2 BetVictor, win Arbeo is making his handicap debut today. He runs off a mark of 104 which looks fair. In his first start over fences, he made a few small mistakes and tired in what was his first run in over six months. In his second run over fences, his jumping improved greatly and he was going very well in front until he made a mistake four out and unseated his rider. He finished second lto in his third start over fences. He disputed the lead until he easily saw off Tricky Tree after 5 out. He was then challenged by Savant Bleu who saw out the trip better than Arbeo and went on to win by 4½L. His jumping was near faultless apart from a mistake at the last when he was clearly tiring. That was over 24f and he drops in trip to 22f which should be perfect for him. He won two NHF races on soft and heavy ground so today's ground will suit. If he puts in a similar round of jumping as lto, he should go close off bottom weight.

[fintron]

Re: BBOTD saturday 29th december 4.40 Wolverhampton VIMIERO is a Jonjo O'Neill flat runner. He has one of these every know and then that does ok on the AW (like Spectait). Showed some useful novice hurdle form that would suggest he's capable of impacting in handicaps in this sphere off 75, and his second to the Cornishcockney reads very well. Beaten three lengths that day but was conceding lots of weight to the three year old winner, who was raised 11lb and won returned to a handicap next time out. Has been raised another 8lb since, so was clearly better than the mark when opposing my selection. Big run forecast with Georgey Baker booked. 5/2 William Hill, 1 pt win

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD saturday 29th december 3.05 Leopardstown Si C'etait Vrai 1pt EW @ 10/1 >Bet365 A ridiculously competitive handicap hurdle here with endless chances but the one I like runs in the colours of Gigginstown Stud and is the choice of Davy Russell. SCV is a 6 year old and only recently returned to action after a 552 day absence form racing. He makes his handicap debut today and it hard to know whether or not he is well handicapped or not but he does have a very similar profile to last years winner Jetson. Like Jetson he comes into the race on the back of a poor effort in grade 1 company where he finished last of 5 behind Zaidpour at Fairyhouse. That was only his 2nd run since returning from a lengthy absence and he can strip even fitter here. He has only had 8 career starts and the races he has contested have been won by the likes of Hidden Universe, Hidden Cyclone, Oscars Well, Cause of Causes and Zaidpour last time out. So I think it's fair to say he has been unlucky in coming up against so many good horses throughout his career. The only times he has finished well beaten has been in grade 1 company. On his return to action he came up against Cause of Causes who has since franked the form by hacking up in The Ladbroke at Ascot. SCV got within half a length of him and the pair pulled 10 lengths clear of the 3rd horse in the race Dancing Tornedo who is rated 134. Cause of Causes won the Ladbroke off a mark of 142 so I think there is every reason to believe SCV is well handicapped off 133. I am happy to put a line through his latest run behind Zaidpour as the bounce factor could have also been a factor for his poor run. SCV hasn't much experience of big fields but he did win a 22 runner maiden hurdle back in 2010 and finished 6th of 17 last year at Punchestown. He likes to race prominently which could prove an advantage here as he will keep out of trouble and if he is well handicapped as I believe, then he could prove tough to pass. Last year in this race there was absolute carnage at the 4th fence where 7 horses came down in the same incident. Jetson does try and win the race again but I think he will find it much tougher off his new mark. Willie Mullins looks to hold a very strong hand here as he has the top 2 in the betting but I am happy to take my chances with the unexposed SCV.

[chris34]

Re: BBOTD saturday 29th december 4.40 Wolverhampton Only 6 runners but atleast 5 of these come with some chance. Vimiero is a rare flat runner for Jonjo Oneill and the market usually tells the story with his runners and he isn’t that strong in the market at the moment. He looked in need of further when merely staying on in a maiden around here over shorter. A mark of 75 back in handicap could be a stumbling block given how close a 68 rated horse finished to him (who ran 3^rd off that mark 10 days ago). Six Of Clubs is a good yardstick on the AW with 22 runs has won 6 times and 6 placed efforts and is 3 from 5 around here. He can be keen and needs a strong pace to chase and its not obvious he will get this today and may over do himself off a 5lb higher mark requiring a career best effort but cant be totally ruled out. Rosewood Lad is likely to need this after 8 months off the track despite being on his last winning mark. Call It On hasn’t been seen for 2 months but has been well backed this morning. Yet to win a handicap and strike rate poor 1 from 16. Yet to encounter the AW surface which is a concern but could just get a soft lead in this race but comes with plenty of risk attached. The Absent Mare often races in more competitive handicaps than this, she improved out of recognition last winter before struggling back on turf off higher mark, given a break over summer and looked to need the run first time up back on the flat (did have a run over hurdles). Showed much more last time out she stayed on in pleasing fashion cheekpieces added today and may just bring about the little bit more required to take this weak race. 1pt win The Absent Mare 9/2 bet365

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD saturday 29th december 1205 Doncaster: Kenai Peninsula (7/2 Ladbrokes) The price is too big for this one to ignore despite the good vibes about the fav from the John Ferguson yard which is respected but has yet to jump a twig so worth taking on here at the prices. Kenia Peninsula was quite impressive on his first start over hurdles at Taunton i thought and went into the notebook as one that may carry the penalty next time, well here we go and a more competitive race than i had envisaged but didnt expect 7/2 either. He beat a couple of fair animals that day at Taunton and the form has worked out pretty well at this level and should come on for the experience which is vital for these novices.

[mowgli77]

Re: BBOTD saturday 29th december Just logged in and this thread had been closed and locked, possibly an error or something???

[mowgli77]

Re: BBOTD saturday 29th december Safran De Cotte 2.55pm Doncaster - 1pt WIN 11-2 Bet365 Looks on a workable mark now and wasn't disgraced in the race with Poungach and Super Duty on those terms giving weight away. Won over 23f on soft, should get this 3m on a flat track that isn't too testing and won well on seasonal debut. Not sure Triptico will get 3m and not sure Fill The Power will like soft ground.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD saturday 29th december Charlie Bucket 1.25 Kelso. 1 pt win. Quite consistent and handles heavy ground. The trip's fine and should be able to run his race. Knows how to handle this track and if the jockey gets his fractions right, then should be more than capable of fighting out the finish off a mark of 110. 18/1 Boylesports (bog)

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD saturday 29th december *Catch Me > Leopardstown 3:05 > 0.5 Points e/w @ 33/1 Bet365 BOG* Course and distance winner that looks hugely overpriced if it runs to anywhere near it's best. It was 2nd in the Pertemps at Cheltenham this year at the festival, close 2nd to Cape Tribulation. That was off the same mark as today, 140. It goes on soft or heavy, it all hinges on if the horse has been readind for today or not, and the fact it has been nibbled, and owned by JP McManus, I reckon they are hoping for a decent run in what is an extremely competitive race.

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD saturday 29th december TENOR NIVERNAIS 1.35 Newbury. 1 point win. Ground no problem, trip no problem, and has proved he can jump. Capable of improving and should therefore be tough to beat. 11/2 Bet365 BOG

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD saturday 29th december 2:00 Leopardstown - Hurricane Fly - Back Has an almighty chance here. Always been considered truly top class by connections and has shown that in recent years. Disappointed when beaten into 3rd in the Champion Hurdle in March but didn't look 100% right, but bounced back with vengeance since and won both starts in fine style. Should be very hard to beat 1pt win @ 1/4 Hills BOG

[NeilM]

14:00 Leopardstown Hurricane Fly 1pt 1/4 Hills BOG

[NeilM]

Phone playing up. Came a disappointing third at the Festival but didn't jump fluently so was possibly out of sorts. Hammered them on two starts since and has real class so despite the price I'm happy to back him here. Plus I need a win!

[Boulder5111]

Re: BBOTD saturday 29th december D2.55 Brunswick Gold 1pt Win 8/1 Bet365 The horse has a really good 2nd of 14 to its name on its only visit to the track and will love this ground. There's been a little bit of money for it and Tom Scu is a decent booking. The trip looks just about right and it'll be keeping on whilst others wont get the trip.