Jump racing sat 29th Dec

[jonshell]

:D

[jonshell]

Re: Jump racing sat 29th Dec 2:35 Leopardstown ZUZKA ran a cracking race last time out behind the very useful jezki. Time before that she won a grade 3 event easily by 11L. back down to grade 3 again today she should take all the beating. zuzka is a improving mare who won't mind the ground and step back up in trip. best price 9/4 bet365

[beaker1]

Re: Jump racing sat 29th Dec Challow Novices’ Hurdle – Newbury, 2-45 Saturday 29st December It’s hardly surprising being a novice hurdle that this race has been dominated by the younger horses, in particular the four and five-year-old’s, however the scales have been tipped slightly in favour of the latter who have won six of the last ten running’s. With three five-year-old’s due to line up this year that trend could well be strengthened again. As we approach the New Year there haven’t been lots of opportunities for horses to have run in Grade 1 novice hurdles and the likelihood is horses will start off in lower grades and progress to the more competitive races as the season progresses. This being the case here with several horses in the line-up yet to compete in graded company. Seven recent winners of this race had though at least placed in graded company, with six of the seven actually winning a graded race, so it seems a wise move to stick with the tried and tested performers. This helps us narrow the field down significantly to just two, with Jonjo O’Neill’s Grade 2 winner Taquin du Seuil leading the way. The only other horse to have competed and been placed at this level is Anthony Honeyball’s representative, Ballybough Pat, who was second in the Grade 2 Persian War Novices’ Hurdle at Chepstow in October. Clondaw Kaempfer was successful in a Listed event at Haydock on his last outing, representing the powerful Donald McCain yard he has shown top class form as well. Due to the nature of this race it is hardly surprising to see some nice types line-up with several animals putting unbeaten hurdle records on the line, something Fingal Bay, Backspin, Diamond Harry, Denman and Classified did successfully and it could pay to stick with those types again this year. The horses in question this time are Easter Day and Clondaw Kaempfer, so these warrant extra attention as there could well be more to come in the future from these runners. This race has been kind to the punters over the last eleven years with only two winners coming from outside the first two in the betting, suggesting we can side with the market principals again this time around. Six out of eleven favourites have obliged so it will be worth taking a second look at the market leader. Shortlist TAQUIN DU SEUIL Clondaw Kaempfer In a competitive race the vote just goes for the Jonjo O’Neill trained TAQUIN DU SEUIL. The five-year-old has hardly put a foot wrong in three career starts over hurdles, running out a comfortable winner of the same Grade Two event at Sandown that Fingal Bay used as stepping stone before lifting this prize last year, he cruised through the closing stages, drawing away nicely in the end. He has all the form on paper and has plenty of scope to improve and looks the one to beat here. The soft ground should suit him perfectly and having suffered just one reverse over hurdles when beaten by the highly regarded My Tent or Yours at Ascot over an inadequate two miles he should have the class to keep the rest of the field behind him. His trainer has an outstanding record in this race and the added benefit of A P McCoy only strengthens his position as the number one selection. Clondaw Kaempfer is the horse I think most likely to pose a challenge to Taquin du Seuil. Trained by Donald McCain this four-year-old could be a very nice horse indeed. This Oscar gelding has got off to a flyer over hurdles winning both his previous starts with something in hand. The ground is unlikely to pose him a problem but it will take a very useful four year old to beat older rivals in this very competitive contest but he may be one to keep on your side in his next few outings. Of the remainder Easter Day has been solid in his two previous outings but this represents a big step up in class against proven rivals whilst Ballybough Pat has tended to find at least one rival too good and I see no reason for that trend to change today. Awaywiththegreys has been highly tried but his trainer wouldn’t be sending him here unless he thought he had a chance but it looks like the minor placings are the best he can hope for here.

[BillyHills]

Re: Jump racing sat 29th Dec 2.45 Newbury: Betfred Mobile Sports Challow Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (2m5f) Nice little race for the prize on offer and most will be looking no further than the front two in the betting, you cant really argue with that although Easter Day will be staying on at the finish and looks a useful prospect long term. I prefer Taquin Du Seuil over Clondaw Kaempfer here, I just think he has been up against better opposition so far in his career and has more experience having been on the flat in France. The McCain horse hasn’t been tested as yet and if he could come through this then he will fancied for one of the staying races at the Festival, he may just have to paly second fiddle this time. Selections; 2pts Taquin Du Seuil 2/1 >Paddy Power Ante Post; 1pt Taquin Du Seuil 16/1 >Betvictor (Neptune Novices Hurdle) Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/newbury-betting-mccoy-and-jonjo-to-land-challow-hurdle-at-newbury

[bowles10]

Re: Jump racing sat 29th Dec 2.45 Newbury A horse that just looks too big tomorrow is Lucky Vic at 66/1 in the Grade 1 hurdle at Newbury. For me, it could be the surprise winner as having won 2 races on the trot it is now pitched into the deep end here. However looking at the others, they were only in the same boat 1 race or so ago and the ground and distance could throw up a surprise here. Lucky Vic stays the distance and breeding by Old Vic is certain to be happy on the soft/heavy surface. Of the others, i would say lucky vic is on a par possibly with Awaywiththegreys which is 20/1. You can only get 1/4 odds 1-2 in this race but at those odds, it pays over 16/1 if it comes in second. Lucky Vic 66/1 Stan James

[bowles10]

Re: Jump racing sat 29th Dec 12.30 Newbury ARBEO caught my eye here off the lowest weight. Sam Thomas rides and very capable. The last run over 3m was a decent effort and 2f shorter is ideal for this one tomorrow. Again the key is the ground and acts on heavy so should be there at the finish given a clear round. Arbeo 8/1 Betfred

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Jump racing sat 29th Dec Newbury 12.30 - Arbeo 8/1 BetVictor Novice Handicaps arent generally my cup of tea as there always seems to be something more progressive than the one I pick but I think this horse has been a little unlucky so far. Running a good race before unseating at Plumpton against some top novices and then running out of steam over further LTO. The other I think could be a big danger in this race is Simply Ben who did pretty well on his chase debut at Cheltenham in a strong race in testing conditions. He made mistakes but Newbury will be a bit easier and he will be bang there if he runs anywhere near that form tomorrow. Available at 15/2 with Paddy Power. Newbury 1.35 - Bury Parade 7/2 Paddy Power The form of this horse stands out to me and I think it will take all the beating against less battle hardened rivals. He is a grand jumper with a good attitude and the trip and ground should suit. Newbury 2.10 - Pete The Feat 11/4 William Hill Toss up between this one and Rey Nacarado for me in this race but where I think the handicapper knows all about the latter, we simply dont know where this one's improvement is going to stop. He needs a career best to win this race but the form has stacked up well and he is a very efficient jumper which could be vital. Newbury 3.15 - African Gold 5/1 Bet365 I really like the look of this horse and he has been progressing nicely. The form of his recent runs are very solid and he has definite scope off this mark. Its a competitive little race this and he may be vulnerable up in class but for one reason or another something puts me off his market rivals. Backbenscher the obvious danger, but Top of The Range stayed on nicely LTO and Salubrious certainly has the class angle (LTO form boosted as well). Doncaster 2.55 - Fill The Power 5/1 Betfred The form of this horses last run seems to be working out very well. He only just failed to get up against Wyck Hill who romped home in a listed race NTO, the 4th has subsequently placed off 127 in a C2 hcap and the 3rd was rated 130 at the time. The front two pulled a few lengths clear in that race and I wouldnt be surprised if this lightly raced type took some beating again. Conditions look to be fine for him, as that last run was on soft, but heavy is a an unknown. Of the rest, Richards Sundance definitely has a chance and whilst he acts on this type of ground I think he is better when its a bit firmer, Safran De Cotte doesnt necessarily look well handicapped, Triptico could be a real danger but I would worry about him getting the trip on this ground (same applies to Brunswick Gold) and Handtheprizeover is interesting with a feather weight but I would be worried about the bounce factor, especially stepping up in grade.

[bowles10]

Re: Jump racing sat 29th Dec 1.35 newbury Bury Parade is Nicholls entry in this race which he has won twice in last 3 years with decent sorts TAke the breeze and Ghizao. HAs to give 7lb away to a decent rival in Colour Squadron but that horse fell twice over hurdles last season and best watched here i feel. Nicholls has brought Bury PArade into his stable and it won well at CArlisle LTO and has to be worth an interest at a backable 7/2 Bury Parade 7/2 Skybet

[bowles10]

Re: Jump racing sat 29th Dec 2.10 Newbury Rey Nacarado won this last year off only 1lb lower than tomorrows mark. Loves the ground and proven here. McCoy rides the horse for the 1st time tomorrow and again backable at 7/2 with conditions in its favour. THis will be a severe tst of stamina over 3m 2f on what i believe to be one of the most testing tracks in this country with the long run in. Rey Nacarado 7/2 Skybet

[bowles10]

Re: Jump racing sat 29th Dec 3.15 Newbury Bakbenscher record on this ground is hard to ignore and despite a 6lb penalty from last weeks win, is turned out quickly. Its figures on Soft / heavy are 1011U15111, so thats 7 wins from 10 on this ground and 4/4 on heavy. Bakbenscher 9/2 Skybet

[Stevet1859]

Re: Jump racing sat 29th Dec 2:10 Newbury: State Benefit 1pt win 5/1 Stan James & Midnight Haze 1pt win 20/1 Boylesports State Benefit won nicely last time and he is up three pouinds for that (eight effectively as last time his jockey claimed five against other amateurs). However, State Benefit is lightly raced and there could be more scope for improvement. With Barry Geraghty taking over State Benefit should benefit from professional handling and he is quite hopeful of a good run in his blog on the ATR website. Nicky Henderson remains in good form and seems to excel in Saturday televised races. Midnight Haze gets an ease in grade and a little respite from the handicapper so he is now only two pounds higher than his last win. He is also reunited with Jason Maguire who has been in the saddle for three of his five career wins. The trip and going should not be a problem. Kim Bailey has a decent record with his chasers here, (four from ten) and Midnight Haze could go well at a price. 2:45 Newbury: Taquin Du Seuil 1pt win 5/2 William Hill Taquin Du Seuil ran well on the heavy last time at Sandown and with a similar surface here today his ability to handle the going could be key. Jonjo O'Neill also has a decent record in this race picking up the prize three times in the past ten years so he should know what it takes to win this. Taquin Du Seuil won a Grade 2 last time so with a little more improvement he should be effective in this Grade One company. 3:15 Newbury: Any Given Day 1pt win 11/1 Stan James Any Given Day has to shoulder top weight here, however he is perfectly capable of being effective off this sort of mark and does go well fresh. While the eleven stone twelve may seem a welter burden, the flip side is he may just outclass some of his opponents, three of whom are out of the handicap. Donald McCain has his string in fine form and does far better with his hurdlers than chasers at this track.

[BillyHills]

Re: Jump racing sat 29th Dec 2.25 Doncaster: Bet At BlueSq.com Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) (3m110y) Quite a competitive little race and Barafundle is my idea of the winner if he can build on his fourth at Haydock last time out. A strong stayer who should relish these conditions and from a yard who is beginning to click this season after a lean spell. The dangers are Sixty Something and Who Owns Me who have both been in good form of late and progressive sorts who could be well handicapped still. Selections: 2pts Barafundle 7/2 Ladbrokes 1pt Sixty Something 5/1 >William Hill Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/doncaster-betting-barafundle-can-outstay-rivals-in-stamina-test-at-doncaster

[BillyHills]

Re: Jump racing sat 29th Dec 3.15 Newbury: Betfred Goals Galore Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) (2m5f) A tricky little handicap is this and you have to respect the favourite Salubrious who has improved with each start this season and looks ready to strike soon, he looks well handicapped especially with the jockeys allowance and wont be far away. I like the bottom one Top Of The Range, he stayed on nicely last time at Cheltenham when fifth to Dark Lover and will be a lot straighter here, he has no weight and the yard can do wrong at the minute. Selections: 2pts Top Of The Range 13/2 >Betfred 1pt saver Salubrious 3/1 Ladbrokes Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/newbury-betting-bottom-weight-top-of-the-range-another-likley-winner-for-henderson

[nickf88]

Re: Jump racing sat 29th Dec 2:25 Doncaster - Sarando - 1pt EW 25/1 Betfred Not a horse you'd have your last tenner on but seems to throw in the odd big performance at a price (2nd to Quito de la Roque at 50/1 over fences in April 2011) and seems to be adept over hurdles and fences. Fell in the 2011 Hennessey and at it's peak was rated 153 over fences and 139 over hurdles so tomorrow's 128 back over hurdles may be lenient despite it's terrible recent form. Webber's horses are coming back into a bit of form as seeing as Sarando has form on soft and heavy ground and will get the trip, despite the market leaders looking well hopefully this horse can offer a bit of EW value if running to it's past marks.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jump racing sat 29th Dec 12.30 Newbury - 2pts win Simply Ben @ 15/2 (PP) Nick Mitchell's runner looks very interesting to me as he goes handicapping over fences for the first time. He's still lightly-raced in general - having had just eight starts to date - but appears especially of interest over the larger obstacles. It hasn't taken long for connections to put a fence in front of him and he looks to have the scope to progress off this mark in chases. He was a good third to Ambion Wood in a novice hurdle last season prior to getting off the mark but was out of his depth in a Grade 2 at Haydock subsequently. Was only beaten 1 3/4l in a handicap off a mark of 115 on his final start of the campaign and that came on good to soft ground. He seems to relish testing conditions so the fact he runs off 117 today gives me every confidence in him. On appearance it looks like anything he did over hurdles would be a bonus as he's a chaser on looks so I reckon he'll prove better than a 117 horse when he gets his conditions. He shaped as if needing the run over hurdles on his seasonal reappearance and had no chance of beating the speedier Highland Lodge and Our Father on his chasing debut. However, he showed he could jump (albeit he was a little inconsistent at times) and stayed on really well on the ground (pulled 25l of the fourth having been last of the bunch down the back straight.) Although the drop down to 2m6f wouldn't be ideal, he'll certainly be staying on and he handles the ground better than most. The track will suit and if he doesn't get too far back I think he'll go very close. 2.55 Doncaster - 2pts win Fill The Power @ 5/1 (Ladbrokes) Sue Smith's horse is another who always looked like a chaser and also was pitched into some very hot races in his novice hurdling season. He managed to win two races over the smaller obstacles and finished the season with victory on his chase debut at Sedgefield. He probably needed the run on his return at Wetherby when attempting to give weight to a good horse who goes very well fresh but wasn't beaten far by the 2nd when coming home in third. He ran at the same track over the 3m1f trip again last time out but got much closer when being beaten by 1/2l. That was on soft ground so he's proved he can go on today's surface and that he isn't handicapped out of matters given that was off 5lbs lower. Although he's gone up for finishing 2nd, the front two were 6l clear and the form has worked out. The winner won off 13lbs higher next time out and the 4th was placed in a good Haydock handicap last weekend. The Doncaster track will suit, he jumps well, and a repeat performance would see him go close once more. Dougie Costello takes the ride and he has an impressive 19% strike rate at Doncaster (+54.80 to level stakes). 3.15 Newbury - 2pts win African Gold @ 5/1 (Bet365) I'm committing the sin of jumping ship very quickly having had a nice win with Bakbenscher just seven days ago. However, that is the reason why I'm taking him on this week. He may well go in again but it was a slog when he won at Haydock and he might just find this coming too quickly off the back of that. I'm not totally convinced that Salubrious wants a slog over 2m5f so I'm going to side with a horse who I know stays well and handles the ground/course. Although he's 3lbs 'wrong' at the weights, African Gold has won three and finished second from his four career starts to date and it was no disgrace to finish 2nd to a good type on his seasonal return this year at Carlisle. That one is now rated 137 and just got first run on my selection. He made no mistake at Wetherby next time and benefited from a more positive ride over this c&d last time out off 118. He wasn't hugely strong in the market but ran very gamely in the contest as he fought off competition to forge clear at the finish. He has stamina in abundance on that evidence so the even more testing ground today should suit. He shouldn't be stopping whereas others may. The first two were 18l clear last time so he's still potentially fairly-handicapped and the 2nd has run sufficiently well (placed) since to suggest the form has some substance (4th also franked it). He had to give weight away to the majority of rivals on that occasion too so it was a very good effort. He's off a light weight here and although he's facing some tougher opponents he does have the credentials to complete the hat-trick. When push comes to shove on this ground I like to be one with plenty of stamina and finds under pressure so with that in mind I think the 5/1 about a proven individual is quite a decent price.

[smith17]

Re: Jump racing sat 29th Dec 12.25 Leopardstown: Tarquinius, 11/2 Paddy Power, win Tarquinius was pulled up lto but he was stepped up in trip by quite a bit to 29f and he just didn't have the stamina for it. He drops in trip to 21f which will suit a lot more and he should be there at the finish as he usually is when he finishes. He has been out of the places just once when he has finished (pulled up twice) since joining Gordon Elliot's stable. Today's ground should be perfect for him. Elliot is in decent form with 3 winners in the last week. Keith Donoghue is in the saddle and he has ridden 18 winners for Elliot from 159 rides. 12.30 Newbury: Arbeo, 15/2 BetVictor, win Arbeo is making his handicap debut today. He runs off a mark of 104 which looks fair. In his first start over fences, he made a few small mistakes and tired in what was his first run in over six months. In his second run over fences, his jumping improved greatly and he was going very well in front until he made a mistake four out and unseated his rider. He finished second lto in his third start over fences. He disputed the lead until he easily saw off Tricky Tree after 5 out. He was then challenged by Savant Bleu who saw out the trip better than Arbeo and went on to win by 4½L. His jumping was near faultless apart from a mistake at the last when he was clearly tiring. That was over 24f and he drops in trip to 22f which should be perfect for him. He won two NHF races on soft and heavy ground so today's ground will suit. If he puts in a similar round of jumping as lto, he should go close off bottom weight. 13.35 Newbury: Bury Parade, 3/1 Paddy Power, win Bury Parade is having his first run for Paul Nicholls today. He won lto in his second start over fences. His jumping was impressive and he showed good heart when he came under pressure from the short priced fave before two out. He finished quite strongly though and won by 2L. The form of that race has worked out well, with second, third and sixth winning since. Merry King, who finished fourth, was beaten by just a nose by Canninigton Brook off a mark of 134. He takes a slight step up in trip which should suit. Today's ground will suit as his three wins have come on soft or heavy ground. Nicholls has his stable in fine form, with six winners from 20 runners in the last week. He has a 21% SR at Newbury and a 18% SR with today's jockey, Nick Schofield, over the last five years. 14.10 Newbury: Maringo Bay, 8/1 Betfred, win Maringo Bay finished second lto, finishing 6L behind the favourite, Mountainous, on similar ground to what he gets today. It is his second start in a handicap and he is on a mark of 123. His other handicap run was in the Midlands Grand National, a listed race. He started as the third favourite off a mark of 130 and was travelling quite well but he hit the 18th fence hard and started to weaken soon after that and was pulled up. He has placed three times over fences and, back in a handicap off his current mark, he has a great chanceto break his chasing duck. Trainer Charlie Mann is in decent form with 3 winners from 17 runners this month. Sam Thomas, who was on board lto, has a decent record when riding for Mann, with 8 winners from 72 rides for a lsp of £46.75. 15.15 Newbury: African Gold, 5/1 Paddy Power, win African Gold is attempting to complete his hat trick today. He won lto in his handicap debut over today's distance on soft ground. He travelled well and went to the lead just before three out. He was strongly challenged by the well backed Faultless Feelings but when he was asked to pick up by his jockey he found plenty and went on to win by 3½L with third place being a further 18L back. Faultless Feelings was placed nto on ground which was a bit softer than ideal and fourth place, Ivor's King, also placed nto when upped in class. AG has been put up 8 pounds and is 3 pounds outside the handicap but I don't think that will be enough to stop him and with this being just his fifth run he should improve some more. Today's ground and distance will be perfect for him. Nigel Twiston-Davies is in good form and his son Sam is in the saddle. He has been on board for all of AG runs. 14.25 Doncaster: Sixty Something, 5/1 Bet365, win Sixty Something won lto over today's distance on heavy ground. He was held up at the back until the third last when he started making good progress. He challenged the leaders coming up to the last and finished strongly to win by over a length. It was a cracking ride by Dominic Elsworth, who is on board again today. He has been put up five pounds for that win but with track, ground and distance to suit he should be able to follow up. Trainer Paul Webber is in decent form and has a good record at this track. Elsworth has ridden this horse 5 times, winning twice and finishing a ½L second from three finishes. He has a cracking record at Doncaster, with 8 winners from 30 rides for a lsp of £48.75 and he is in good form this month. He only has two rides today while Webber only has two runners, both in this race. 14.55 Doncaster: Safron De Cotte, 6/1 Bet365, win Safron De Cotte is having just his third run over fences. He won his first run quite well in his seasonal reappearance. He tracked the leaders until the second last when he pulled well clear with Godsmejudge. They jumped the last together but SDC found some more and pulled clear to win by 3L. The runner up, along with fourth and fifth, have won since. Lto he finished third, 30L behind Poungach. He ran quite well but was simply outclassed having to give weight away to top class opposition. He still finished ahead of Knock A Hand, Gullinbursti and Tenor Nivernais,who should all win big races over fences. He makes his handicap debut today off a mark of 126, which he should be competitive from. All five of his wins have been on soft or heavy so he will love today's ground. Today's distance of 24f should be perfect as he finished two runs ago strongly over 23f. Trainer Henry Daly has a decent record at Doncaster and this is his only runner of the day. Andrew Tinkler is in saddle for his only ride of the day.

[fintron]

Re: Jump racing sat 29th Dec 2.25 Doncaster CORKAGE - goes really well at this track. Won over C&D over hurdles in March off 7lb lower and left behind a poor reappearance run when a close up fourth (beaten under one length) in a chase here last time. Should remain competitive back over timber at a track he seems to relish. 7/1 Blue Sq.

[cpo]

Re: Jump racing sat 29th Dec 2.25 Doncaster Corkage 1pt EW @ 8/1 Ladbrokes This horse has to be of interest here considering his record at the track. It was no surprise he ran his best race since winning here back in March this year, when finishing 4th in a competitive handicap at this track. That run came over fences but he is just as good over hurdles as he showed when winning comfortably here over CD earlier in the year. The race was of a similar standard to this one but Corkage won very easily by 8 lengths and this effort was a career best by 11lbs. He is up another 7lbs here and the handicapper may well have caught up with him but I am a big believer of horses for courses. Corkage is also a better horse over hurdles than over fences as 5 of his 7 wins over jumps have come over hurdles. His overall record at Doncaster reads 1-1-3-2-1-4 and his trainer is currently the top trainer at the track. You will often find Keith Reveley's horses primed for Doncaster and is certainly a trainer to follow here. At the last meeting here he had 3 placed horses at 20/1, 12/1 and 20/1 and one winner at 9/2 from 5 runners, which isn't too shabby. A few of his opposition come into the race on the back of wins last time out but I would rather take them on here as they are all stepping up in grade and are half the price of Corkage. They do however have less to prove on the ground but I fancy Corkage will handle it as he has showed good form on soft ground at times throughout his career. I would love to know who does the pricing up for Attheraces as they had this one at a predicted 20/1 outsider compared to 4/1 with the Racing Post. Whoever does it is terrible IMO and often gets the market completely wrong. I think at 8/1 he is a good each way bet in this race, even though he has to prove himself on the ground. Risk worth taking considering his course form. 3.05 Leopardstown Si C'etait Vrai 1pt EW @ 10/1 >Bet365 A ridiculously competitive handicap hurdle here with endless chances but the one I like runs in the colours of Gigginstown Stud and is the choice of Davy Russell. SCV is a 6 year old and only recently returned to action after a 552 day absence form racing. He makes his handicap debut today and it hard to know whether or not he is well handicapped or not but he does have a very similar profile to last years winner Jetson. Like Jetson he comes into the race on the back of a poor effort in grade 1 company where he finished last of 5 behind Zaidpour at Fairyhouse. That was only his 2nd run since returning from a lengthy absence and he can strip even fitter here. He has only had 8 career starts and the races he has contested have been won by the likes of Hidden Universe, Hidden Cyclone, Oscars Well, Cause of Causes and Zaidpour last time out. So I think it's fair to say he has been unlucky in coming up against so many good horses throughout his career. The only times he has finished well beaten has been in grade 1 company. On his return to action he came up against Cause of Causes who has since franked the form by hacking up in The Ladbroke at Ascot. SCV got within half a length of him and the pair pulled 10 lengths clear of the 3rd horse in the race Dancing Tornedo who is rated 134. Cause of Causes won the Ladbroke off a mark of 142 so I think there is every reason to believe SCV is well handicapped off 133. I am happy to put a line through his latest run behind Zaidpour as the bounce factor could have also been a factor for his poor run. SCV hasn't much experience of big fields but he did win a 22 runner maiden hurdle back in 2010 and finished 6th of 17 last year at Punchestown. He likes to race prominently which could prove an advantage here as he will keep out of trouble and if he is well handicapped as I believe, then he could prove tough to pass. Last year in this race there was absolute carnage at the 4th fence where 7 horses came down in the same incident. Jetson does try and win the race again but I think he will find it much tougher off his new mark. Willie Mullins looks to hold a very strong hand here as he has the top 2 in the betting but I am happy to take my chances with the unexposed SCV. 2.45 Newbury Easter Day 2pts win @ 4/1 >Bet365 I paid for taking on the Jonjo O'neil trained Taquin Du Seuil last time out with a Paul Nicholls horse and maybe I am a glutton for punishment but I am going to do the same again. TDS was very impressive at Sandown on heavy ground but its hard to determine what he actually beat that day. Southfield Theatre who I backed came into the race on the back of a bumper win at Cheltenham and Le Bec who finished 2nd in the race came into the race on the back of easy win in a novice hurdle at Kempton. TDS may well turn out to be very smart but the time of the race was very poor even if you take into account the conditions. Clondaw Kaempfer comes into the race on the back of a very good win at Haydock over 2m in listed company. He is unraced on heavy ground but goes well on soft and he looks a very exciting prospect. The one I do like however, is the Paul Nicholls trained Easter Day. I backed this horse last time out where he got the better of Dursey Sound quite comfortably. He only managed a couple of placed efforts in bumpers last year but he has returned to action in much better condition and he looks a natural over hurdles. He travels very powerfully in his races and you could have called him the winner last time out a long way out. That race came over 22f so the trip today in testing conditions should pose no problems for him. He is German bred and I would expect to handle the ground perfectly fine, even though his jockey after his win last time out said he would be better on good ground. He is only a 4 year old and he is in the right hands to progress into a top class horse. This is a quality race which has been won by several top class horses in the past. Paul Nicholls has won the race twice in recent years and heres hoping he can add to that today with Easter Day.

Originally Posted by cpo 1.45 Haydock Bakbenscher 1.5pts EW @ 8/1 >Bet365 I backed this horse last time out where he disappointed at Newbury in a race won by Fair Along. He came into the race on the back of a promising return to action at Chepstow but didn't build on that performance. His record on ground soft or heavy is brilliant with 5 wins from 6 runs, with the only loss coming last time out. He should have no problems with the conditions tomorrow and I am happy to give him one more chance, with the Alan King yard in fine form at the moment. Wayned Hutchinson takes the ride and he shows a nice profit of £32.90 when teaming up with Alan King this season. There are a few horses in the race that come into it in better form than my selection but his liking for the conditions and his stamina could see him go close.

3.15 Newbury Bakbenscher 2pts win @ 9/2 >Bet365 Above is what I wrote about this horse last time out where he won quite convincingly. Even with a rise in the weights, he could still be well handicapped over hurdles if you take into account his rating over fences. This is a tougher race but he absolutely loves these conditions. He is unbeaten when encountering heavy ground, this is very much his trip and I see no reason to go against him here while he is in good form.

[mowgli77]

Re: Jump racing sat 29th Dec Newbury 1.35pm Clearly left it late and missed some value with 7-2 already taken by others but I still fancy this at 11-4 and have no idea why the other 2 are favourites over this one. Form of debut win stacks up as detailed in the link below and can go some way to explaining why it went for £100,000 recently at the sales. Link to race preview: http://www.punterslounge.com/newbury-betting-bury-parade-to-give-weight-and-a-beating-to-rivals-in-5-runner-chase Selection: 2pts WIN – Bury Parade 11-4 PaddyPower (BOG)

[mowgli77]

Re: Jump racing sat 29th Dec Doncaster 2.55pm Safran De Cotte looks to be on a very winnable mark and has much better terms than at Haydock when giving weight away to better horses. Carpincho and Categorical might have each way chances but the formlines with Super Duty through Bury Parade look solid and that rival could be winning at Newbury earlier in the day. Link to race preview below: http://www.punterslounge.com/doncaster-betting-safran-de-cotte-the-young-improver-that-should-go-close-today Selections: 2pts Win – Safran De Cotte 6-1 Bet365 (BOG) 0.5pt EW – Categorical 14-1 BlueSquare

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Jump racing sat 29th Dec Charlie Bucket 1.25 Kelso. 1 pt win. Quite consistent and handles heavy ground. The trip's fine and should be able to run his race. Knows how to handle this track and if the jockey gets his fractions right, then should be more than capable of fighting out the finish off a mark of 110. 18/1 Boylesports (bog)

[bowles10]

Re: Jump racing sat 29th Dec superb start Smith17, 2 nice winners

[Falbrav]

Re: Jump racing sat 29th Dec TENOR NIVERNAIS 1.35 Newbury. 1 point win. Ground no problem, trip no problem, and has proved he can jump. Capable of improving and should therefore be tough to beat. 11/2 Bet365 BOG

[Aidymac]

Re: Jump racing sat 29th Dec *Catch Me > Leopardstown 3:05 > 0.5 Points e/w @ 33/1 Bet365 BOG* Course and distance winner that looks hugely overpriced if it runs to anywhere near it's best. It was 2nd in the Pertemps at Cheltenham this year at the festival, close 2nd to Cape Tribulation. That was off the same mark as today, 140. It goes on soft or heavy, it all hinges on if the horse has been readind for today or not, and the fact it has been nibbled, and owned by JP McManus, I reckon they are hoping for a decent run in what is an extremely competitive race.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Jump racing sat 29th Dec

*Catch Me > Leopardstown 3:05 > 0.5 Points e/w @ 33/1 Bet365 BOG* Course and distance winner that looks hugely overpriced if it runs to anywhere near it's best. It was 2nd in the Pertemps at Cheltenham this year at the festival, close 2nd to Cape Tribulation. That was off the same mark as today, 140. It goes on soft or heavy, it all hinges on if the horse has been readind for today or not, and the fact it has been nibbled, and owned by JP McManus, I reckon they are hoping for a decent run in what is an extremely competitive race.

Agree with this has gone well fresh before is overpriced at 33's for five place have also backed HARD HAT at the opposite end of the handicap has been drifting but again 33's for 5 places is again good e/w value imo.

[bowles10]

Re: Jump racing sat 29th Dec

superb start Smith17' date=' 2 nice winners[/quote'] blazing bailey also on the 2 winner mark now with Arbeo and Pete the feat, well done mate. I recall you were going today so hopefully should be in front! :)

[bowles10]

Re: Jump racing sat 29th Dec

2.45 Newbury: Betfred Mobile Sports Challow Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (2m5f) Nice little race for the prize on offer and most will be looking no further than the front two in the betting, you cant really argue with that although Easter Day will be staying on at the finish and looks a useful prospect long term. I prefer Taquin Du Seuil over Clondaw Kaempfer here, I just think he has been up against better opposition so far in his career and has more experience having been on the flat in France. The McCain horse hasn’t been tested as yet and if he could come through this then he will fancied for one of the staying races at the Festival, he may just have to paly second fiddle this time. Selections; 2pts Taquin Du Seuil 2/1 >Paddy Power Ante Post; 1pt Taquin Du Seuil 16/1 >Betvictor (Neptune Novices Hurdle) Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/newbury-betting-mccoy-and-jonjo-to-land-challow-hurdle-at-newbury

Good call on the ante post BH, looks a stayer for sure, if only Jonjo can keep his string going until March!

[bowles10]

Re: Jump racing sat 29th Dec

blazing bailey also on the 2 winner mark now with Arbeo and Pete the feat' date=' well done mate. I recall you were going today so hopefully should be in front! :)[/quote'] 3 winners a piece from B Bailey and Smith17 today well done guys good tipping

[beaker1]

Re: Jump racing sat 29th Dec

Challow Novices’ Hurdle – Newbury, 2-45 Saturday 29st December It’s hardly surprising being a novice hurdle that this race has been dominated by the younger horses, in particular the four and five-year-old’s, however the scales have been tipped slightly in favour of the latter who have won six of the last ten running’s. With three five-year-old’s due to line up this year that trend could well be strengthened again. As we approach the New Year there haven’t been lots of opportunities for horses to have run in Grade 1 novice hurdles and the likelihood is horses will start off in lower grades and progress to the more competitive races as the season progresses. This being the case here with several horses in the line-up yet to compete in graded company. Seven recent winners of this race had though at least placed in graded company, with six of the seven actually winning a graded race, so it seems a wise move to stick with the tried and tested performers. This helps us narrow the field down significantly to just two, with Jonjo O’Neill’s Grade 2 winner Taquin du Seuil leading the way. The only other horse to have competed and been placed at this level is Anthony Honeyball’s representative, Ballybough Pat, who was second in the Grade 2 Persian War Novices’ Hurdle at Chepstow in October. Clondaw Kaempfer was successful in a Listed event at Haydock on his last outing, representing the powerful Donald McCain yard he has shown top class form as well. Due to the nature of this race it is hardly surprising to see some nice types line-up with several animals putting unbeaten hurdle records on the line, something Fingal Bay, Backspin, Diamond Harry, Denman and Classified did successfully and it could pay to stick with those types again this year. The horses in question this time are Easter Day and Clondaw Kaempfer, so these warrant extra attention as there could well be more to come in the future from these runners. This race has been kind to the punters over the last eleven years with only two winners coming from outside the first two in the betting, suggesting we can side with the market principals again this time around. Six out of eleven favourites have obliged so it will be worth taking a second look at the market leader. Shortlist TAQUIN DU SEUIL Clondaw Kaempfer In a competitive race the vote just goes for the Jonjo O’Neill trained TAQUIN DU SEUIL. The five-year-old has hardly put a foot wrong in three career starts over hurdles, running out a comfortable winner of the same Grade Two event at Sandown that Fingal Bay used as stepping stone before lifting this prize last year, he cruised through the closing stages, drawing away nicely in the end. He has all the form on paper and has plenty of scope to improve and looks the one to beat here. The soft ground should suit him perfectly and having suffered just one reverse over hurdles when beaten by the highly regarded My Tent or Yours at Ascot over an inadequate two miles he should have the class to keep the rest of the field behind him. His trainer has an outstanding record in this race and the added benefit of A P McCoy only strengthens his position as the number one selection. Clondaw Kaempfer is the horse I think most likely to pose a challenge to Taquin du Seuil. Trained by Donald McCain this four-year-old could be a very nice horse indeed. This Oscar gelding has got off to a flyer over hurdles winning both his previous starts with something in hand. The ground is unlikely to pose him a problem but it will take a very useful four year old to beat older rivals in this very competitive contest but he may be one to keep on your side in his next few outings. Of the remainder Easter Day has been solid in his two previous outings but this represents a big step up in class against proven rivals whilst Ballybough Pat has tended to find at least one rival too good and I see no reason for that trend to change today. Awaywiththegreys has been highly tried but his trainer wouldn’t be sending him here unless he thought he had a chance but it looks like the minor placings are the best he can hope for here.

happy with that

[beaker1]

Re: Jump racing sat 29th Dec

Challow Novices’ Hurdle – Newbury, 2-45 Saturday 29st December It’s hardly surprising being a novice hurdle that this race has been dominated by the younger horses, in particular the four and five-year-old’s, however the scales have been tipped slightly in favour of the latter who have won six of the last ten running’s. With three five-year-old’s due to line up this year that trend could well be strengthened again. As we approach the New Year there haven’t been lots of opportunities for horses to have run in Grade 1 novice hurdles and the likelihood is horses will start off in lower grades and progress to the more competitive races as the season progresses. This being the case here with several horses in the line-up yet to compete in graded company. Seven recent winners of this race had though at least placed in graded company, with six of the seven actually winning a graded race, so it seems a wise move to stick with the tried and tested performers. This helps us narrow the field down significantly to just two, with Jonjo O’Neill’s Grade 2 winner Taquin du Seuil leading the way. The only other horse to have competed and been placed at this level is Anthony Honeyball’s representative, Ballybough Pat, who was second in the Grade 2 Persian War Novices’ Hurdle at Chepstow in October. Clondaw Kaempfer was successful in a Listed event at Haydock on his last outing, representing the powerful Donald McCain yard he has shown top class form as well. Due to the nature of this race it is hardly surprising to see some nice types line-up with several animals putting unbeaten hurdle records on the line, something Fingal Bay, Backspin, Diamond Harry, Denman and Classified did successfully and it could pay to stick with those types again this year. The horses in question this time are Easter Day and Clondaw Kaempfer, so these warrant extra attention as there could well be more to come in the future from these runners. This race has been kind to the punters over the last eleven years with only two winners coming from outside the first two in the betting, suggesting we can side with the market principals again this time around. Six out of eleven favourites have obliged so it will be worth taking a second look at the market leader. Shortlist TAQUIN DU SEUIL Clondaw Kaempfer In a competitive race the vote just goes for the Jonjo O’Neill trained TAQUIN DU SEUIL. The five-year-old has hardly put a foot wrong in three career starts over hurdles, running out a comfortable winner of the same Grade Two event at Sandown that Fingal Bay used as stepping stone before lifting this prize last year, he cruised through the closing stages, drawing away nicely in the end. He has all the form on paper and has plenty of scope to improve and looks the one to beat here. The soft ground should suit him perfectly and having suffered just one reverse over hurdles when beaten by the highly regarded My Tent or Yours at Ascot over an inadequate two miles he should have the class to keep the rest of the field behind him. His trainer has an outstanding record in this race and the added benefit of A P McCoy only strengthens his position as the number one selection. Clondaw Kaempfer is the horse I think most likely to pose a challenge to Taquin du Seuil. Trained by Donald McCain this four-year-old could be a very nice horse indeed. This Oscar gelding has got off to a flyer over hurdles winning both his previous starts with something in hand. The ground is unlikely to pose him a problem but it will take a very useful four year old to beat older rivals in this very competitive contest but he may be one to keep on your side in his next few outings. Of the remainder Easter Day has been solid in his two previous outings but this represents a big step up in class against proven rivals whilst Ballybough Pat has tended to find at least one rival too good and I see no reason for that trend to change today. Awaywiththegreys has been highly tried but his trainer wouldn’t be sending him here unless he thought he had a chance but it looks like the minor placings are the best he can hope for here.

happy with that