FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan

[MPLouis]

Re: FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan

Man City v Watford Man City's FA Cup record under Mancini against lower league sides Middlesbrough 0 City 1 Scunthorpe 2 City 4 Leicester 2 City 2 City 4 Leicester 2 (replay) Notts County 1 City 1 City 5 Notts County 0 (replay) 2 of the 6 games have been at home, and 4 away. In general, City have just done enough away and won comfortably at home. But the only really convincing scoreline is the 5-0 against Notts County. This, taken with Watford's strong from (they've won 3 and drawn 2 of their last 5 away games), makes me think Watford are some value on the handicap - Watford +2 AH 2.17 188Bet Strength: 5/10 (confidence I have in the value of the bet)

Result: 3-0 Bet lost -5 points (based on 5/10 strength rating) It sounds as though Watford put up a fight but City were too good.

[MPLouis]

Re: FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan

I think it's a good point about teams concentrating on promotion. As a Crystal Palace supporter, I really wouldn't be too bothered if we get knocked out by Stoke tomorrow. In fact, the best thing for Palace would be if we get knocked out and our promotion rivals (Cardiff, Leicester, Middlebrough, Hull and Watford) all stay in for as long as possible. The worst thing would be for us to stay in and everyone else get knocked out. Also, I think the prize of promotion to the Premiership is so big that the cup is probably less important to Championship sides than League 1 and League 2 teams. Perhaps there is some value in backing lower league sides against Championship promotion contenders? Looking at top half Championship sides (who might think they have a chance of the playoffs) playing lower league sides tomorrow: Macclesfield v Cardiff Leicester v Burton Millwall v Preston Derby v Tranmere Forest v Oldham Hull v Orient Perhaps there's value in opposing some of these?

Just looking at the results, Cardiff, Forest and Hull were all heavy odds on and failed to win, so opposing these six would have resulted in a decent profit.

[Fedar]

Re: FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan

Fulham - Blackpool Over 3.5 @ 2.75 (bet 365) ........

Fulham - Blackpool 1:1 FT :( The early goal I was waiting for to open up the game never came in.

[MPLouis]

Re: FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan

I've been thinking about these games, and decided to recommend just the one tip on Tottenham. Very short odds at 1.22 but Tottenham have been walking all over lower half Premiership teams recently, dominating games against teams like Villa, Sunderland and Reading. Coventry have been doing well, but there is a gap in class between League One and the Premiership. Odds of 1.22 imply an 82% chance of a win. Based on Spurs' recent performances, I think Spurs chances of winning are higher than 83% - I'd say they are around 90%, so the bet is good value. Spurs also have a very good cup record against lower league sides. Tottenham v Coventry Tottenham 1.22 William Hill Strength: 8/10 (confidence I have in the value of the bet) I think there's a good chance that there's some value on the other teams in bold from the first post, but the FA Cup is less predictable than the league and I'm finding it hard to identify particular matches. I think I'll come back to it when the results are in just to see how a 10-point level on stake on every game would have done. The total stake on all 10 games @ 10 points/stake = 100 points.

Result: 3-0 Bet won :ok +1.76 points (based on 8/10 strength rating)

[Fedar]

Re: FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan A little recapitulation of the Boro - Hastings game which I followed on Boro's forums. It seems that all the analysis we got from our fellas in this forum was very precise. Indeed, Boro have been poor in defense as predicted. Their goal-keeper had to make 4 or 5 great saves according to reports from this forum. However, Boro totally dominated them up-front - missed a penalty, had a dozen of wonderful chances, their forward (I think Miller) had a terrible day. As a whole, I think we got wonderful value here and we owe our respect to the fellows that tipped us about this.

[MPLouis]

Re: FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan

Some gut feeling on possible value: Villa v Ipswich @ 3.75 Blackburn v Bristol City @ 4.75 Crawley @ 2.88 v Reading Derby v Tranmere @ 4.2 Fulham v Blackpool @ 5.0 Leeds v Birmingham @ 3.8 Millwall v Preston @ 5.0 Forest v Oldham @ 6.0 Spurs @ 1.2 v Coventry (Probably on the handicap) Wigan v Bournemouth @ 4.2 I've shortlisted these ten teams from the 32 games, as the teams highlighted have good recent Shots on Target stats compared with their opponents in recent games (these stats are taken from the BBC football website).

Oldham and Spurs won. Blackpool, Birmingham and Bournemouth drew. The other five teams lost. Ten x equal 10-point bets on each team would have returned 72 points from 100 staked (-28 points or -28%).

[Darran]

Re: FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan Well done to those of you who backed Macclesfield. I listened to the game on the radio and it seems like they deserved it, despite the fact the goals were late on. Great day for non-league as well with Luton winning, despite the fact my bets on the game lost. As for Boro they made us sweat a little missing a pen and then letting a goal in as soon as they went 3-0 up. However the big difference as you go up the leagues is the quality of finishing and it seems that made a huge difference. Well done to all those who followed me in. Must admit I wasn't expecting to be in this thread in the next round, but I may well be back after all.

[joe mavis]

Re: FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan

Also a boro fan and agree with doriva that is a more than capable side especially the midfield ' date=' I do have a feeling Hastings will score as we have not been defending great and the defence does look a bit weak could be a situation where boro get 2-3 up and switch off more so if Hastings are coming to attack can see it ending up 3-1 or 4-1[/quote'] Nice shout here - I just did Borough to win at odds of 1/6 anyone know what price boro to win 4-1 was?? Joe

[bowles10]

Well done to Luton and Macclesfield After seeing Luton get beat at Woking on Tuesday I thought they would be better at home vs the championship side who are in really poor form, Luton have a decent cup pedigree and if any team has to go there in next round it will be difficult

[bowles10]

On the bet I put up for premier league sides to be knocked out on this round, we stand at 5 as Newcastle lost and there will be 4 others who played each other So with replays for Wigan stoke fulham and Sunderland to come for the 5 to come in, they all have to go through fulham and Wigan especially tricky away games now

[Darran]

Re: FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan

Well done to Luton and Macclesfield After seeing Luton get beat at Woking on Tuesday I thought they would be better at home vs the championship side who are in really poor form, Luton have a decent cup pedigree and if any team has to go there in next round it will be difficult

I am kicking myself a little for backing Wolves, but the price was bigger than it should have been and it sucked me in. Just hope Luton can start winning League games as well now.

[blackcrow]

Re: FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan

Brighton v Newcastle over 2.5 @1.86 :eyes Brighton v Newcastle over 3.5 @ 2.96 :eyes Newcastle were very poor Aston Villa @ 1.81 :D Aston Villa -1 (EH) @ 3.10 :eyes Sunderland @ 2.79 :eyes Stoke @ 2.48 :eyes Peterborough v Norwich over 3.5 @ 2.53 :eyes Norwich too strong, but still expected Peterborough to get one goal Southampton v Chelsea under 2.5 @ 2.32 :eyes Didn't expect Chelsea to have such a strong line up for this game

63-128 (-35.44)

[Bizar01]

Re: FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan How about Swansea City to beat Arsenal? I think Arsenal is not taking this cup seriously?

[ElkHunter]

Re: FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan

How about Swansea City to beat Arsenal? I think Arsenal is not taking this cup seriously?

Difficult one to call without seeing the line ups but would fancy laying Arsenal which you can pick up at odds of around 1.66 with various. If Arsenal rotate and leave the likes of Walcott and Podolski out I think Swansea have every chance. The question is who Laudrup may choose to rest given their league cup semi against Chelsea on Wednesday....who knows what each clubs priority is?! Arsenal played a very strong team up at Bradford [a lot of good that did] and the FA Cup is all they can conceivably win this season, so Wenger may put out a full strength team. So, all in all I might just leave this one alone as I can't call result, goals, corners or cards......but GL if you do wager any cash!

[hoddspur]

Lay Arsenal 2.12 @ Betfair - Arsenal are too short in this game IMO. I know Swansea have a league cup semi final against Chelsea on Wednesday but I cannot be having Arsenal at 11/10 to win at Swansea especially considering how poor they were against Southampton where they should have lost. Swansea have only lost 2 games out of 11 in the league this season and have already held Man United and Chelsea to draws at the Liberty Stadium. Arsenal have only won 4 out of their 11 away games in the league this season. Although Swansea only managed a 2-2 draw against Villa in their last game, they completely dominated them for most parts of the game. Arsenals defence is still quite shaky and Swansea will give it a real go tomorrow in front of the home crowd. Lay Arsenal would be the smart option here IMO. Swansea to score over 1.5 goals 15/8 @ Stan James - 15/8 looks quite appealing for Swansea to score 2 or more tomorrow. Swansea play good attacking football and since they came up last season they have beaten Arsenal twice and lost once. Swansea can score goals at home having scored 19 in 11 home games this season. As I stated previously Arsenal are not great defensively and conceded 3 against Newcastle 2 against Reading and Southampton created a good couple of chances against them on New Years Day so I don't Swansea will have much trouble against this Arsenal backline. Sent from my iPhone using PL Forum app

[SuperImps]

Re: FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan Arsenal at 1/1 to beat Swansea i can't see Arsenal losing today, Swansea are very decent but i feel arsenal will have enough to win this match at a good price. maybe worth doing -1 arsenal at 3/1 plus the scorelines of 3-1/4-1. good luck Mansfield to hold Liverpool til 2nd half could be a good bet. DRAW/LIVERPOOL. 3-1 liverpool.

[kevshat]

Re: FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan Sunday previews: 4pts Arsenal to beat Swansea 23/20 Ladbrokes I’m surprised Arsenal are odds against in this match. It may be a sign of the times or it may be that the doom and gloom surrounding them has got to the bookmakers but I do expect Arsenal to win the game. It would only be natural for the Welsh side to have one eye on Wednesday night as that is a genuine chance to make a cup final and if they take an eye off the ball here Arsenal’s attacking slickness will punish them. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/swansea-vs-arsenal-betting-arsenal-can-begin-a-tilt-at-silverware-with-win-over-swansea 4pts Liverpool (-2AH) to beat Mansfield 2.07 Ladbrokes It would take either a Mansfield fan or some pretty weird imagination to think Mansfield can realistically get anything from this match. Yes they have nothing to lose but really they lack that quality to stay with Liverpool. Mansfield struggle with pace at the back and the likes of Daniel Sturridge and Raheem Sterling could be very tough to stop and if Liverpool get an early goal to silence the crowd I think they’ll run out comfortable winners. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/mansfield-vs-liverpool-betting-liverpool-can-avoid-a-major-upset-at-field-mill

[Darran]

Re: FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan I must have a weird imagination as I think Mansfield could get something out of the match depending on what team Liverpool put out. Tempted to have a low risk lay of Liverpool if the team news merits it.

[kevshat]

Re: FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan Good luck to you. Can't see it at all. Even Liverpool's reserves have been winning Europa League matches this season. I expect there to be a significant gulf in class whatever side Liverpool put out but I don't expect them to rest too many, not with their history and tradition in the competition.

[trayman]

Re: FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan How about BTTS @ Swansea - Arsenal? Swansea always scoring at least one goal at home since late November, and at the same time only Middlesbrough didn't score a single goal at this stadium. Arsenal still too leaky defense, and they are going to take this match seriously. Arsenal should win after a very close one.

[gersfandownunder]

Re: FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan Id like to Lay Arsenal here, they shouldn't be 11/10 against anyone away from home. I just wonder if Laudrup is going to concentrate on the League Cup as people have mentioned. I will stay up as late as i can for the team news before a bet, just depends on the team sheet for me... Arsenal currently at 2.12 on betfair.

[aliando]

@ addpea and kevshat I can kinda see where both of you are coming from but it will ultimately rest on the starting line up for pool. Chances are, a weakened side will be fielded - but will it be the reserves who play in Europe or a weaker side again? There's enough depth there to mean a number of youngsters have not had much first team action and this could be their chance. This represents a possibility for Rodgers to win or at least progress in. Also, Macclesfield demonstrated yesterday that non league teams will not just roll over in awe and I'd expect Liverpool perhaps not to be as complacent. I'd be looking at a pool win by 2-3 clear goals but until the line ups are released, no bets to be placed.

[Jase82]

Liverpool - 4.5 Asian corner handicap @ 1.9 - bet365. I'm with Addpea on this one. I think although the kids have done well in coming in and being given a platform to perform. They've been told to go out and play with little restriction. This is the FA Cup. It's a world away from the kamikaze defending of Young Boys Berne in Switzerland that made Liverpool look good. What about the 2-2 draw with Yoing Boys too? I think sometimes the FA Cup can be a great leveller, and Liverpool are set to make changes, as you'd expect. Mansfield will probably look at the team sheet and think they can really get something here. We have seen countless times how league placings really matter little when you have a side like Mansfield, who are extra motivated. I think they'll be extra motivated at the news an ageing Jamie Carragher is set to possibly play. For that reason I'll take the corner handicap on Liverpool here as I think Mansfield can dig in against a Liverpool reserve side.

[Jase82]

Regarding the other game I do think there's still no value in Arsenal's price. I'm sure you'll get one section of punter look at the price of evens and think its a steal because they'd normally be 1.8, or something similar. But Swansea have already taken Arsenal apart recently, and Arsenal are very much a Jekyll & Hyde side as they struggle for consistency. It really doesn't matter what team Wenger puts out as they're all as bad, or inconsistent :unsure as each other. I'd probably have to LAY Arsenal really at that sort of price. Swansea are good enough to at least earn a replay.

[Jase82]

Swansea V Arsenal Draw @ 3.75 - bet365 Correct Score 1-1 @ 8.5 - Bet Victor. Just for some interest, but Arsenal despite their inconsistencies are still a fairly solid away performer, having lost only three of their last fifteen. Swansea are pretty similar, having lost the same amount at home. I think the value probably lies with the draw, which bet365 have priced slightly higher than the Swansea win.

[AHughes]

Re: FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan I think that Rodgers will go with something like this today at Field Mill - Jones, Wisdom, Carragher, Coates, Robinson, Coady, Shelvey, Henderson, Suso, Assaidi and Yesil with Sturridge coming off the bench for some game time in the 2nd half. I would say give or take that will be around or line-up with possible changes such as Downing or Sahin (if back from injury) coming into the side. Cant really see an upset here, We have been playing well since the defeat to Stoke and this side alone should have enough quality to see off a conference side. Expect Gerrard and Suarez to be completely rested in preparation for the match against Man Utd next Sunday. I fancy Jordan Henderson 1st goal and at a price of 16/1 with BetVictor for an attacking midfielder is a smashing price if he plays of course. The lad has been impressive in the last few weeks since his switch into the role behind the striker.

[blackcrow]

Re: FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan Swansea v Arsenal under 2.5 @ 2.15 pinnacle Swansea have one win and 3 draws in their last 4 EPL games so they will be pretty confident for this game, as will Arsenal who have won 4 and drawn the other of their last 5 EPL games. With a home game against Man City next week, Arsenal may rest a few players for this game, which could see a pretty even contest. Like the unders here as Arsenal have gone under in 6 of their last 8 EPL games which includes 4 of their last 5 away games Mansfield v Liverpool under 2.5 @ 2.81 sportsbet With Liverpool playing Man Utd next week, would expect some of their starting eleven to be rested while also there were reports that Mansfield's pitch is not up to the usual standard that their passing game requires, which may bring them back to the home team. While they still should end up winning, there are enough doubts to suggest that it will not be easy and the under then has quite a bit of value about it 63-128 (-35.44)

[BIG X]

Re: FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan Swansea over 5.5 corners @ 2.10 Bet365 Swansea have covered this line in 3 out of their last 6 home games 3,3,6,5,7,8. Arsenal have conceded more than 6 in 3 of their last 6 away games 3,4,3,6,7,6 Swansea have only failed to cover this line in 4 out of their 13 home league games this season. Covering the line 9 out of 13. In the recent away game Arsenal, Swansea managed 5 corners so I dont think its too much of a stretch to expect them to get just one more at home today. We have a Swansea team who know they can beat Arsenal playing at home in front of a rocking stadium. I expect them to take the game to the away side and I think we are getting good odds on a least 6 corners for a home side who usually rack them up

[H1]

Re: FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan I'd say I agree with hoddspur on Swansea - Arsenal game a draw no bet for the Swans @2.6 with betfair looks like a good bet to me, mainly because Arsenal's form of late A few days ago against Southampton, they had only 1 shot on target, and were really poor going forward. The same could be said about the Wigan game, and the Carling Cup upset at Bradford, when the Gunners were shockingly tame. When Podolski has his day I notice his presence on the field only when he is substituted out. Of course there was also the Reading game, when Arsenal went 5-2 winners. But in that game they were let a lot of space by the hosts, and they need to pay for it. Swansea is in my opinion a well organized and resolute team, that keeps passing the ball and with that they will always create chances. They also have personnel to do that and with Michu and Graham in top form they should score a few past the Arsenal defence. Last season when Arsenal came to the Liberty - with much stronger squad I would say - they were beaten 3-2 and that was completely deserved for the hosts. I believe it's gonna be similar today. Swansea dnb @2.62 betfair Swansea to score 2 goals or more @2.62 bet365 Swansea to score 3 goals or more @6.50 bet365

[Gavlar17]

Re: FA Cup > 29th Dec - 7th Jan Swansea vs Arsenal Contrary to what many have posted before me, I really fancy Arsenal to take this tie today. I'd agree that the price isn't great and I'd probably be looking for 6/4 usually but I've decided to back the gunners. Swansea have already qualified for the semi finals of the Capital One cup and are currently lying in 9th in the Premiership table, so are clearly going well. There has however been suggestions that Laudrop will focus on the league cup which is quite interesting really. Arsenal were knocked out of the league cup by Bradford but have gone undefeated since then with 3 wins and 1 daw. Typically Arsenal's only real shot at silverware is in one of the domestic cup competitions and with them going out of the league cup so early, you can imagine Arsene Wenger will be looking for a big performance from his squad to advance to the next round of the FA cup. It would be nothing short of a disaster if they were to be knocked out in the third round of the FA cup whilst already out of the league cup. Bets Arsenal win @ 11/10 with StanJames Best of luck with all your bets. Gavlar.