Serie A - September 25-27

[Dylan]

[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [/TR] [TR] [TH=class: firstColumn, align: left]Tuesday 25 September 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [TH] [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Fiorentina v Juventus (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.35[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.15[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]104.93 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings, align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn, align: left]Wednesday 26 September 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [TH] [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Pescara v Palermo (17:30 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.55[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.9[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]104.00 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings, align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]AC Milan v Cagliari (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.57[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]8[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.14 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings, align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]AS Roma v Sampdoria (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.72[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.70 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings, align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Catania v Atalanta (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.1[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.9[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]103.56 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings, align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Chievo v Internazionale (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.55 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings, align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Genoa v Parma (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.15[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.7[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.95 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings, align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Napoli v Lazio (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.05[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.9[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]103.83 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings, align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Torino v Udinese (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.12[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]103.97 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings, align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn, align: left]Thursday 27 September 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [TH] [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Siena v Bologna (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]103.32 % [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[TotoSchillaci]

Re: Serie A - September 25-27 Fiorentina looked very erratic in their last match. I see juve is in a very strong moment. What are the chances of Fiorentina playing like that again because I'm seeing value for Juve here. My biggest concern is if Jovetic decides to get up for this game. But last match viola played full strength whereas Juve rested Pirlo, Giovino (though he may be 2nd choice now due to Quagiarella's form), Barzagli and the two chileans only played half a game each. So they should be the fresher team here imo.

[Mindfulness]

Re: Serie A - September 25-27 After a tough looking weekend card the midweek’s have more promise at first glance. When you have a number of potentials which all look appealing it can require some hard work to identify all the danger areas, not a lot of team news at the moment but these are my initial thoughts: Pescara V Palermo A morale boosting draw at Bologna would have been more than welcome at Pescara. It was their first point of the season and perhaps something to build on, they still couldn’t keep 11 players on the field with keeper Perin being sent off but the resilience shown should help their psychology. I expect the newly promoted club to continue their pressing 4-3-3 style at home to Palermo but can they capitalize? The spirit and cohesion at Palermo has got to be at an all time low right now. The knee-jerk dismissal of Sannino was foolish in my view and now he has been replaced by Gasperini?!?!? Out of the two sides you’d have to say the momentum is with Pescara and when you factor in Palermo’s form on the road then you can see how I’m viewing this contest. The price on the home side has shortened slightly but Pescara +0 @ 4/5 is under consideration here. AS Roma V Sampdoria I was interested to hear Ultra’s thoughts on Roma at the weekend, they were having some personnel problems heading into the Cagliari game and I wonder if this is still going to be an issue by Wednesday. The fact that Zeman’s men had a rest at the weekend is also interesting; will it help or hinder the team? Or, is this an irrelevance? Sampdoria on the other hand played very well at the weekend and will feel unfortunate not to come away with all 3pts in their home game with Torino. My biggest concern is that Obiang went off injured so if both he and Poli (less crucial) are absent for the Roma match then the Samp price looks less tempting. So many questions for this game but Sampdoria +1 @ 4/5 is on my shortlist for the time being. Chievo V Inter Milan A disaster of a result for Inter at the weekend with the 0-2 home defeat to Siena. The Nerazzurri are great going forward but very poor defensively, Rannochia is a doubt for this game, I don’t know whether that’s a good or a bad thing. I would probably have Nagatomo banned for some of his defending at times but I don’t think Chievo are the team to exploit Inter’s defensive issues. Chievo are a very uninspiring outfit these days in my view and Inter should see this as an opportunity to strike back quickly away from the glare and pressure of the San Siro. The big question surrounding this game is can Stramaccioni maintain the cohesion and spirit of the team with the immense disappointment and pressure now weighing on him after the weekend result? Inter +0 @ 5/6 is under consideration here. Genoa V Parma Ultra called the Lazio V Genoa game right at the weekend and it will surely be a massive psychological boost for De Canio’s team to get an impressive 0-1 win in the capital. Genoa at home are always a menace these days, unfortunately I don’t know much about Parma so this is where I’m having some clouded judgment. Genoa -0.25 @ 19/20 on my shortlist for now. Torino V Udinese Torino picked up a decent point at Samp over the weekend but this was due to variance rather than equilibrium between the two sides. Dylan has mentioned how the Torino forward line is simply not effective enough at present and I’m inclined to agree. They do bomb forward in wide areas however and you would think that Udinese are just the sort of team to exploit this. There is the whole home/away dynamic to consider here but Udinese will be fired up after their victory over Milan and perhaps now things are starting to turn for Guidolin’s men. At the time of writing this Udinese +0 @ 29/20 or +0.25 @ 19/20 have caught my attention. I will continue to investigate myself but would be great to get the thoughts of Ultra, Dylan, Azzurini and co on these as there maybe some units in it for us this midweek with some decent research and analysis.

[Dylan]

Re: Serie A - September 25-27 On Juve, I just don’t think their price is long enough for me. I’ve not heard much on team news, but I wouldn’t put it past them to rotate the team again, given that they’ve got Roma at the weekend and a champion’s league tie in a weeks time. Whenever you rotate it normally affects performances and in the last two league games when they have swapped players around we haven’t seen Juventus at anywhere near their best. They got very lucky against Genoa who really could have gone 2 or 3-0 ahead but were wasteful in front of goal and it took them a while at the weekend to get on top of a stubborn Chievo side. Fiorentina already look a tricky side to play against especially at home where they will look to dominate possession and have recorded two wins from two. I can see Juve having a lot less possession than they would normally experience and that automatically makes things tougher for them. The Pescara vs Palermo match also jumped out for me but for goals rather than any particular wish to back either side. I can envisage that both teams will be looking at this match as a should win game given the situations both sides find themselves in. Pescara have just the one point from 4 games and have lost to the other two newly promoted sides in that run, so need to improve results quickly. Performances haven’t been terrible, but they do have a few defensive issues that should be of concern to them. They lost their first choice GK Perin to a red card against Bologna, and still have injuries to Romanogli and Bochettini is a doubt as well. They are also likely to make changes at both full back positions for this match. This adds to the woes of a team who have conceded the most goals of any so far this term. They are however a little better going forward, with the likes of Weiss and Quintero having trickery and pace to cause problems especially to a defence as poor as Palermo’s has been so far this season. The Sicillian team also sit on just 1 point from 4 games, with that picked up on opening day of the season. I had hopes that Sannino would bring stability to Palermo, but the chairman’s impatience has seen him sacked after 3 games. Admittedly performances were not good in the opening games and they looked very poor in defence. They sold Viviano, Balzeretti and Silvestre in the summer and the replacements were nowhere near the desired quality to cover their losses. I think it says it all when Gasperini is having to put Donati in at centre back. They switch to a back three under the new boss may also take some adjusting to. One thing that does excite me is the front three that Palermo may put out for this one. Brienza is back fit, and with him and Illicic in support of Miccoli, that’s a good front line, full of creativity. The overs at 2.0 is something I quite like the look of at the moment. The Udinese handicap is another one I’m seriously considering. I was very impressed with performance against Anzhi in the Europa League and then getting the win against Milan at the weekend will have boosted morale even further. It’s much too early to say Udinese’s woes have completely been resolved but you’d fancy them to handle Torino. As Das Phantom points out I do feel that they lack a scoring threat in central areas, as Bianchi isn’t good enough anymore. Cerci looks to have improved things slightly but the Udinese team is still solid and well organised in defensive areas and should be able to cope. If they can limit Torino’s goal threat then you would fancy them hold tight and look to nick a goal as the match goes on. There is however still concerns over Basta and Dommizzi so the draw cover might be worthwhile taking. Basta has probably been the stand out player for Udinese this season. The price on Udinese is actually rising which is a surprise, which makes this even more tempting. Elsewhere I’ve also shortlisted the Genoa win / or 0AH. I don’t want to repeat myself from previous threads but Genoa have played extremely well at times this season, going forward they’ve created loads of opportunities and have some very high quality attackers and attacking midfielders in the likes of Immobile, Merkel and Jankovic. Defence also seemed a little better against Lazio and if they do start getting things together in that area then I think they have the ability to be challenging for a Europa League place. The change in mood and confidence around the club is astonishing given everything they went through with results and fans backlash last season. Parma seem a functional team but I don’t think they have the desire or spark to match Genoa here, especially with this being a home match for Di Canio’s men. I feel Bologna are also a little high at almost 4.0’s against Siena. This will be driven by Siena’s win against Inter, which whilst being noteworthy isn’t as impressive as it may have been a few seasons ago. They are still a woeful team with uninspiring players and an erratic manager and I can’t see them being able to focus and maintain the same level of play as they did against Inter. This game isn’t until Thursday so plenty of time to ponder this one. I wouldn’t fancy either Samp or Inter to be honest. If Samp are without Obiang and Poli then I can’t see how they will get a real hold on this match. Roma play with great intensity and speed and it will be important for any opposition team this season to match them physically and also have players to hold onto the ball when they win it to prevent giving it straight back to them and facing another attack. Inter were unable to do this and Roma took advantage and I can see Samp having similar problems without those two. De Rossi and Totti are also likely to be back for this one, and the whole team will be fresh having not played at the weekend. Inter still have issues as the Siena matched demonstrated and whilst they are seemingly performing better away from home, the performance vs Torino wasn’t excellent and they were helped by some Milito genius and blunt attacking from Torino. Cheivo are probably the strongest team they’ve faced on the road so far this season so should offer a tougher challenge. They are a good unit, very experienced in playing together and an Inter not in full flow will struggle break them down. Plus defence is also a problem as Das Phantom alluded to. Personally I reckon Juan Jesus is more of a issue than Nagatomo, but having both in the same team is a disaster waiting to happen.

[Fedar]

Re: Serie A - September 25-27 Dylan, you have been providing very good feedback on Serie A thus far. Keep the good job going!

[ultravires]

Re: Serie A - September 25-27 Nice analysis in here again. I have quite clear thoughts on this round. I'm only going for two: Juve and Genoa. Fiorentina - Juventus This is quite a heated match in Serie A and both will raise their levels as such. I watched Fiorentina at the weekend and they were pretty poor. They have lots of nice touches on the ball, but as a team they struggled to put themselves in positions where those touches matter. They were always threading a quick pass in between the opposing midfield and defence. At which point Jovetic or his partner have to make the pass stick and go from there. They have a lot of possession but it rarely threatening for long enough - if at all. As a team they were often too deep leaving the forwards isolated. Jovetic is a roaming player naturally, so they really lacked a decent reference point to work from. All of this was against Parma who lack any sort of imposing characteristics. They can't do anything particularly well. Migliaccio is supposedly going to play in CM for this match. He should have played at the weekend because he is going to struggle to do anything in this one. Their CM trio contains the same player roles as Juve's but they are each a sub-standard version. Their full-backs will be dominated too - that is for sure. Cuadrado won't get anywhere against Asamoah, and is defensively suspect. Pasqual is a very ordinary player who will deal with Lichsteiner in his own half, but equally won't get anywhere in the Juve half. Juventus will restore their XI to full-strength. They got a decent rotation in against Chievo and I think further rotation this early would be detrimental. Quagliarella has thrown a spanner in the works regarding the front line. I think he pretty much has to play, so it will be Vuci or Gio to join. It's hard to say which partnership would have the better chemistry because Quag never plays. I honestly think Juve will own the entire pitch. They still have to finish the chances, but a hot on form Quagliarella is the best striker they have had thus far this season. I'm happy to take them straight in this one. Fiorentina may well raise their game from their poor performance at the weekend, but Juventus are a big match team. They have been more likely to flop against Chievo at home than in these matches in the past. Juventus win - 2.10 - 7 points - Bet365 Genoa - Parma This is a play based more on my view of Parma more than Genoa - as I haven't really seen much of Genoa. They have obtained some pretty good results thus far though. Namely a win away at Lazio, in which they were fortunate, but still gained a result that they would not have in the past. That could just be plain luck, but they'll still carry an extra confidence into this match. They are usually a strong home team as well. In all honesty, their D isn't all that. They are all fairly average players. They should benefit from their team being on the front foot in this match, though they aren't the best at retaining possession, so there will be periods of pressure. Jankovic isn't great for the balance of the CM IMO, but he is an attacking threat. Seymour is the destroyer while Kucka is the ball-player. I'm not mad on Borriello and Immobile up front as they are similar strikers. They are however both targets and scoring threats. Parma were dreadful against Fiorentina. They were a real drag to watch and there is so little going on in their XI it is mind-numbing. Valdes is the only player who has a shred of creativity in his boots. The rest are work-horses who aren't even particularly good at that. There is no capability to hold onto the ball and no reference point up front. Amauri would help that in some respect but he only got 30 mins at the weekend, so I don't think he will be fit enough to start. Fiorentina quite honestly handed Parma a point at the weekend. Lucarelli hit the post from a corner, which is a relevant threat. However, it was not a constant aerial threat. Besides that, they created nothing and Fiorentina gave them two of the stupidest penalties you are likely to see. Genoa aren't solid, but I don't see anything in this Parma XI to offer a significant enough threat. At home, in good spirits I think they will get it done - at decent odds too. Genoa win - 2.3 - 5 points - Bet365 Despite the good analysis above, I don't see anything else that really tempts me on this card.

[ultravires]

Re: Serie A - September 25-27 One thing I didn't mention in my Fiorentina - Juventus analysis is the physical gulf between these teams. Juventus have the capability to swarm Fiorentina. If they employ their high pressing then Pizarro will be pushed back to a point from which he cannot play dangerous passes. He was mid-way into his own half at times against Parma. Juventus will have way more of the ball than Fiorentina, simply because the home side lack effective destroyers. Migliaccio has to play in that respect, but it remains to be seen what he can do.

[altocirrus]

Re: Serie A - September 25-27

I feel Bologna are also a little high at almost 4.0’s against Siena. This will be driven by Siena’s win against Inter, which whilst being noteworthy isn’t as impressive as it may have been a few seasons ago. They are still a woeful team with uninspiring players and an erratic manager and I can’t see them being able to focus and maintain the same level of play as they did against Inter. This game isn’t until Thursday so plenty of time to ponder this one.

Are you talking about Serse Cosmi? I think he displayed a great coaching style. He's fiery, but he did VERY well with Perugia in 2000's and brought Genoa back to Serie-A. He also orbited star players like Materazzi, Grosso, Liverani, and Milito. He should've evolved to a bigger figure had Gaucci cared more about the club and not dragged them to deep sh!t and gave him career stability in the past. The likes of Walter Mazzari with (Sampdoria then Napoli) and Francesco Guidolin with (Bologna then Udinese) are at the same level as his experience and charm.

[hebert10]

Re: Serie A - September 25-27 Fiorentina v Juventus 3pts Juventus to win @ 2.1 Bet365 Juventus look to increase there 43 match unbeaten run here when they take on Fiorentina. Pirlo, Vidal and Lichtsteiner should all return from from being rested for the game against Chievo, which was also won comfortably with a 2nd string side. Jovetic is the main threat i can see for Fiorentina but if Juve can keep him wrapped up then they should keep a clean sheet. Attacking wise Juve should cause Forentina a load of problems as they've already scored 11 in 4 already this season so should add to the tally here. Last season Juve beat them at home 2-1 and then gave them an absolute beating away 5-0. Juve really do look a class above the rest in Serie A at the moment and i'm expecting them to prove thos against Fiorentina, Conte will know 3 points here will be massive in his bid for the league title.

[Dylan]

Re: Serie A - September 25-27

Are you talking about Serse Cosmi? I think he displayed a great coaching style. He's fiery' date=' but he did VERY well with Perugia in 2000's and brought Genoa back to Serie-A. He also orbited star players like Materazzi, Grosso, Liverani, and Milito. He should've evolved to a bigger figure had Gaucci cared more about the club and not dragged them to deep sh!t and gave him career stability in the past. The likes of Walter Mazzari with (Sampdoria then Napoli) and Francesco Guidolin with (Bologna then Udinese) are at the same level as his experience and charm.[/quote'] Yeah Cosmi, but it was more a reflection on his tactics and results, than the man himself. Clearly he has a decent history in the game, you rarely get to manage at this level without past success elsewhere and is understandably much loved for his quirky ways. However the performances of his teams are quite erratic, i've seen them be dominated for much of the match by Torino on opening day, but then looking pretty solid against Inter last weekend. It was the same with Leece last year where he would get results in the bigger games but not do much against smaller opposition. I think his style of play is very difficult for the players to maintain over long periods and so they'll struggle to get a run of good results, which could well be the case again this week. Good luck to the Juve backers tonight.

[McNasara]

Re: Serie A - September 25-27 Great job here, folks :clap Here is some information about the game which is not mentioned before. Milan v Cagliari First of all I would like to point out the physical fitness of the teams. In fact this will be the fourth game for Milan and the second for Cagliari in the past 11 days, it can be an important advantage for the guests. Milanese are in very bad shape and coach Allegri is under great pressure. Muntari and Pato are still injured, while Zapata and Boateng are suspended (as well as coach Allegri who will be on the stands). Also Robinho will start on the bench. Away side have only one absence, regular mf Cossu is injured. Nevertheless, Milan is better team and have great success in recent matches against Cagliari. But in this situation, I prefer Cagliari +1 (1.80 Pinnacle) rather than home win (around 1.60).

AS Roma V Sampdoria My biggest concern is that Obiang went off injured so if both he and Poli (less crucial) are absent for the Roma match then the Samp price looks less tempting. So many questions for this game but Sampdoria +1 @ 4/5 is on my shortlist for the time being.

I wouldn’t fancy either Samp or Inter to be honest. If Samp are without Obiang and Poli then I can’t see how they will get a real hold on this match. Roma play with great intensity and speed and it will be important for any opposition team this season to match them physically and also have players to hold onto the ball when they win it to prevent giving it straight back to them and facing another attack. Inter were unable to do this and Roma took advantage and I can see Samp having similar problems without those two. De Rossi and Totti are also likely to be back for this one' date=' and the whole team will be fresh having not played at the weekend.[/quote'] Roma was rested at the weekend and have key players (De Rossi and Totti) returns, only Osvaldo is still out. On the other side, Sampdoria will be without two important players (Poli and topscorer Lopez) and another key midfielder Obiang is doubtful. I think Roma (1.70 Ladbrokes) is a better choice than Doria +1 (around 1.85).

[pinko_rp]

Re: Serie A - September 25-27 Fiorentina - Juventus I hope that Viola will stop Juventus' unbeaten run. But I expect very nervous game where the winner is unknown. These teams are in bad relations lately. The last thing that happened was that Juventus spoiled transfer of Dimitar Berbatov - who finally went to Fulham. I've made a combo bet for over 5.5 card (odds 1.80 @ bet365) and over 1.25 goals (odds 1.24). Last year in 0-5 in Florence there were 2 yellow and a red card but this year I expect more. Fiorentina's last game (1-1 away at Parma) was full of cards. Not the same in Juventus-Chievo game but there was no emotions in it.

[Mindfulness]

Re: Serie A - September 25-27 I'm gonna eliminate Pescara, Samp and Inter from my inquiries. Despite there being some value in the Pescara price you would feel that Palermo would also fancy their chances. It's hard to read whether or not the spirit has improved at Palermo since the change of coach, I guess Miccoli will show us one way or the other as his performances and attitude in recent games have been the personification of Palermo's recent slide. I have taken onboard the comments about Roma V Samp and yes I think it's best to leave this one. The one thing I would say is that I personally don't think Maxi Lopez is actually a fundemental loss to Samp as Nicola Pozzi will probably suprise a few folks this season if he gets a run in the team. I was very impressed with his performances in Serie B during their promotion push, he's an intelligent player with decent movement that can exploit space in the box, he's also good in the air like any proper centre-forward and has an established understanding with Eder. The fitness doubts over Obiang are crucial and potentially it could be a game where Samp get overrun by the oppostion so I'll leave it. The hardest play for me to drop has been Inter as I really want to back them at Chievo. I made a similar move towards the end of last season and it paid off but that was when I had a clear read on the Inter morale. There's too many clouds hanging over the coach and team at present with that home defeat to Siena and how they respond against Chievo will be a matter of pure speculation so ultimately I cannot back them. I'm still considering plays on Genoa and Udinese, Torino V Udinese is becoming ever more murky as the battle of wits plays out between Ventura and Guidolin in the buildup. There's all kinds of talk about resting important players, formation changes, what kind of mustard will be served with the hot dogs at half time etc. The outcome of this game is probably going to be decided on who makes the best decisions in the dugout which is obviously difficult for us to foresee. The price on Genoa paves the way for a speculative value bet and I was interested to read Ultra's comments on the game. I agree that Genoa aren't quite balanced correctly, but, possess some effective attacking players who will always create and score goals. Sampirisi at right-back is my biggest concern as he's a little young to be playing defence week in week out at 19 years old. Whether or not Parma can exploit this is another issue. Good info and views from everyone on here as usual, will post selections if I decide to pull the trigger.

[Mindfulness]

Re: Serie A - September 25-27 Torino V Udinese Udinese +0 @ 8/5 (Pinnacle) 1 Unit It was a tough game for Torino at Samp during the weekend with every sinew stretched to breaking point. Maximum physical effort was exerted to gain a result and now Ventura’s men will be tired and bruised heading into this home clash with Udinese. Cerci misses out for the home side and this is a big blow I feel as he has been a decent attacking outlet for them this season, his absence is not what the doctor ordered for an already tepid offense. In terms of defense, left-back Masiello is out through injury while Agostini is still not fit enough to come in and replace him so problems there you would feel. Centre-back Glik was a liability in the Sampdoria match while Ogbonna should be tired after a high turnover of games so Torino have a few issues at the moment. Have Udinese turned the corner with that result against Milan? It will no doubt be good for their psychology and for me they are the more accomplished of the two sides in tomorrows contest. They have a strong countering threat and a bit of competition for places upfront now with Ranegie getting on the scoresheet at the weekend so I expect them to give Torino one or two things to think about during the game. Basta has made it into the squad which is a boost but centre-back Domizzi misses out. The biggest element of risk here? Ventura may decide to change his system due to fatigue and the absence of Cerci, Guidolin’s tactical response will be vital. His side have had a high turnover of games recently but this should be counter-balanced by strong psychology and decent competition for places. It’s a tough game to call but the price on Udinese is so long here it opens the door for a low stakes value bet.

[Dylan]

Re: Serie A - September 25-27 Not much more to add to my earlier thoughts and the excellent write ups by others. I’ll be taking these two bets tomorrow. Still considering Genoa, but not as confident in them as these other two. They have a couple of doubts in defence, as has been mentioned previously their defence isn’t as strong as attack and could be exploited if they have to make more adjustments. Torino vs Udinese – Udinese +0.5AH 1.73 at Bet Victor (3 / 10 units) To summise Torino don’t have the firepower to overly trouble this solid Udinese defence. Therefore the away side should have a degree of control and will look to sneak a win. Basta is back for them, and that combined with an injury to Massielo at left back for Torino may prove the key here. Price is excellent as well. Pescara vs Palermo – over 2.5 goals 2.0 at Ladbrokes ( 2 /10 units) Two sides needing a win, both with better attacks than defences and this could create an exciting and open game. See my previous post for more reasoning. I’ve heard that Diamanti may be out for Bologna on Thursday. If that’s the case I’ll be wary of backing them against Siena. He would have caused Siena all kinds of problems playing in the space between defence & midfield that Siena so often vacate when attacking. My guess is that Pioli may push Taider further forward but he doesn’t possess the same ability to carry the ball forward so directly and quickly that Diamanti does.

[hebert10]

Re: Serie A - September 25-27

Fiorentina v Juventus 3pts Juventus to win @ 2.1 Bet365 Juventus look to increase there 43 match unbeaten run here when they take on Fiorentina. Pirlo, Vidal and Lichtsteiner should all return from from being rested for the game against Chievo, which was also won comfortably with a 2nd string side. Jovetic is the main threat i can see for Fiorentina but if Juve can keep him wrapped up then they should keep a clean sheet. Attacking wise Juve should cause Forentina a load of problems as they've already scored 11 in 4 already this season so should add to the tally here. Last season Juve beat them at home 2-1 and then gave them an absolute beating away 5-0. Juve really do look a class above the rest in Serie A at the moment and i'm expecting them to prove thos against Fiorentina, Conte will know 3 points here will be massive in his bid for the league title.

Bet lost from what stats i've seen looks as if Fiorentina were the better team did anyone watch the game? 2012 Football betting record: 11-19 (-0.01)

[vinnyno10]

Re: Serie A - September 25-27 Juve.. Not even once :unsure Fiorentina outplayed them throughout the 90 minutes, looking a decent side in that 4-3-3 formation. Unlucky not to win this one tonight. Looking at tomorrows games, Genoa look unbelievable value. Haven't done much research yet but at first look its very tempting to back them against a weak Parma side

[ultravires]

Re: Serie A - September 25-27

Nice analysis in here again. I have quite clear thoughts on this round. I'm only going for two: Juve and Genoa. Fiorentina - Juventus This is quite a heated match in Serie A and both will raise their levels as such. I watched Fiorentina at the weekend and they were pretty poor. They have lots of nice touches on the ball, but as a team they struggled to put themselves in positions where those touches matter. They were always threading a quick pass in between the opposing midfield and defence. At which point Jovetic or his partner have to make the pass stick and go from there. They have a lot of possession but it rarely threatening for long enough - if at all. As a team they were often too deep leaving the forwards isolated. Jovetic is a roaming player naturally, so they really lacked a decent reference point to work from. All of this was against Parma who lack any sort of imposing characteristics. They can't do anything particularly well. Migliaccio is supposedly going to play in CM for this match. He should have played at the weekend because he is going to struggle to do anything in this one. Their CM trio contains the same player roles as Juve's but they are each a sub-standard version. Their full-backs will be dominated too - that is for sure. Cuadrado won't get anywhere against Asamoah, and is defensively suspect. Pasqual is a very ordinary player who will deal with Lichsteiner in his own half, but equally won't get anywhere in the Juve half. Juventus will restore their XI to full-strength. They got a decent rotation in against Chievo and I think further rotation this early would be detrimental. Quagliarella has thrown a spanner in the works regarding the front line. I think he pretty much has to play, so it will be Vuci or Gio to join. It's hard to say which partnership would have the better chemistry because Quag never plays. I honestly think Juve will own the entire pitch. They still have to finish the chances, but a hot on form Quagliarella is the best striker they have had thus far this season. I'm happy to take them straight in this one. Fiorentina may well raise their game from their poor performance at the weekend, but Juventus are a big match team. They have been more likely to flop against Chievo at home than in these matches in the past. Juventus win - 2.10 - 7 points - LOSS

Swap the words 'Juventus' and 'Fiorentina' above and you will have an accurate idea of how tonights match went.

[altocirrus]

Re: Serie A - September 25-27

Bet lost from what stats i've seen looks as if Fiorentina were the better team did anyone watch the game? 2012 Football betting record: 11-19 (-0.01)

Hebert, WTF happened to you these couple days? I remember you finished with +10 units profit by last weekend, and now -0.01?!

[MPLouis]

Re: Serie A - September 25-27 A lot of useful comment on this thread I see. No wonder some of the other threads are quiet - everyone's in Italy :D

[SALVO7ITALY]

Re: Serie A - September 25-27 Napoli v Lazio Napoli were very disappointing on the weekend against Catania and a game where we could've really done with Lavezzi. Lavezzi was a player last year that could unpick tight defenses by himself. Napoli in my opinion this year are too organised to score as freely as they did last season. Lazio were also disappointing in losing to Genoa but looks they rested 5 starters that will be starting tonight. Even at this early stage of the season both sides cannot really afford to lose this one and can see a defensive minded Lazio parking the bus and hitting Napoli on the counter. I just cannot see Napoli winning tonight because Lazio have a strong defense and more than capable in frustrating Napoli. Napoli only lost two games at home all season last year Because of all this reasons it seems obvious that come the last twenty mins if the scores are level both sides will be happy with a point 10pts on Napoli v Lazio Draw.

[Turkish]

Re: Serie A - September 25-27 I had a small stake on La Vecchia Signora or most known as Bianco Neri but they let me down as The Viola were the more solid and the better side who couldve won the match by a goal.The Viola dominated much of the match and Juve was pinned in their half choosing to counter attack most of the match.

[Mindfulness]

Re: Serie A - September 25-27

Udinese +0 @ 8/5 (Pinnacle)

FT: Torino 0-0 Udinese = PUSH Stake returned here and quite frankly I'll take it, Guidolin with too much rotation for my liking with Di Natale, Pereyra and Pinzi all on the bench. Torino were not as tired as I expected and as the game went on the home side got stronger and hit the woodwork a number of times throughout the match. Udinese simply didn't show enough to get the win so I am happy with the refund after this speculative effort.

[MPLouis]

Re: Serie A - September 25-27

FT: Torino 0-0 Udinese = PUSH Stake returned here and quite frankly I'll take it, Guidolin with too much rotation for my liking with Di Natale, Pereyra and Pinzi all on the bench. Torino were not as tired as I expected and as the game went on the home side got stronger and hit the woodwork a number of times throughout the match. Udinese simply didn't show enough to get the win so I am happy with the refund after this speculative effort.

From what I saw, I agree - Torino had the better of it.

[MPLouis]

Re: Serie A - September 25-27

If Samp are without Obiang and Poli then I can’t see how they will get a real hold on this match. Roma play with great intensity and speed and it will be important for any opposition team this season to match them physically and also have players to hold onto the ball when they win it to prevent giving it straight back to them and facing another attack. Inter were unable to do this and Roma took advantage and I can see Samp having similar problems without those two. De Rossi and Totti are also likely to be back for this one' date=' and the whole team will be fresh having not played at the weekend.[/quote'] Finished Roma 1 Sampdoria 1 I saw the first 20 minutes and last 15 minutes. In the first 20 minutes it was all Roma, and it was no surprise when I saw they'd taken the lead. Perhaps the turning point was the sending off. Sampdoria went down to 10 men early in the second half, but then equalised on 62 minutes. When I switched over to see the last 15 minutes, the pattern was similar to the start of the game - Roma attacking. But Sampdoria had some great runs on the break. It looked as though Roma would score again, but you could see that Sampdoria were raising their game - it seems it often happens when teams go down to 10 men.

[Dylan]

Re: Serie A - September 25-27

Torino vs Udinese – Udinese +0.5AH 1.73 at Bet Victor (3 / 10 units) :ok Pescara vs Palermo – over 2.5 goals 2.0 at Ladbrokes ( 2 /10 units):\

Small profit at least, on whats been a generally tough midweek round. Disappointed with the Pescara game, red card ruined any chance of overs. It was looking optimistic until then, an open game and both teams creating chances. Generally however feel I've got a good gage for teams now, so might start with some bigger stakes from the weekend onwards, although I haven't actually looked at the fixtures yet.

[ultravires]

Re: Serie A - September 25-27 Ah man, top flopper tonight. What a terrible round for me. Pretty much back to square one. Didn't watch Genoa so I'm not sure what happened - doesn't matter now though. -12 for the round.

[McNasara]

Re: Serie A - September 25-27

Great job here, folks :clap Here is some information about the game which is not mentioned before. Milan v Cagliari First of all I would like to point out the physical fitness of the teams. In fact this will be the fourth game for Milan and the second for Cagliari in the past 11 days, it can be an important advantage for the guests. Milanese are in very bad shape and coach Allegri is under great pressure. Muntari and Pato are still injured, while Zapata and Boateng are suspended (as well as coach Allegri who will be on the stands). Also Robinho will start on the bench. Away side have only one absence, regular mf Cossu is injured. Nevertheless, Milan is better team and have great success in recent matches against Cagliari. But in this situation, I prefer Cagliari +1 (1.80 Pinnacle) rather than home win (around 1.60). Roma was rested at the weekend and have key players (De Rossi and Totti) returns, only Osvaldo is still out. On the other side, Sampdoria will be without two important players (Poli and topscorer Lopez) and another key midfielder Obiang is doubtful. I think Roma (1.70 Ladbrokes) is a better choice than Doria +1 (around 1.85).

Azzurri are not my people tonight...

[The Undertaker]

Re: Serie A - September 25-27 any expert tips on the siena vs bolognese game.. ?? seems Siana have upped their game with a top win over Inter... Whats the Italian experts think