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Champions League > September 18th

staffy

By staffy
in Champions League Predictions

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bacardirum

bacardirum

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Re: Champions League > September 18th Man City are going to get turned over tonight, league form goes out the window when it comes to the CL. Everyone is stating that Real have been poor in the league and they lost their last game to Sevilla 0-1, and that was away from home. However look at City, they drew their last game away at Stoke 1-1, drew 2-2 away with a poor Liverpool side, nearly lost to newly promoted Southampton at home, and have beat QPR at home, nothing spectacular from them either. Also when trading I managed to back Real at 1.70, the lay is now 1.60, that is quite a drop, so something is telling me that Real are up for this one.

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MPLouis

MPLouis

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Re: Champions League > September 18th

Just another important info taken from uefa.com "Arsenal are making their second visit to France in successive seasons for a UEFA Champions League game. Their 1-0 win at Olympique de Marseille on 19 October 2011' date= courtesy of an Aaron Ramsey goal in added time, maintained their record of never losing an away fixture against Ligue 1 opposition in UEFA competition. Their eight visits have produced five wins and three draws and they have won their last four fixtures"
I was thinking about this, because I remember Arsenal having a good record in France. Of course statistics don't necessarily mean anything, and can easily be misleading. I remember before Bayern played at Villarreal last year a lot of talk was about how Bayern hadn't won in Spain for 10 years - http://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/season=2012/matches/round=2000263/match=2007578/prematch/preview/index.html And Bayern ended up winning the match comfortably (2-0). But in this case, in Wenger Arsenal have a long-standing French manager and have had a lot of top French players in his time. I am guessing that could be a key factor in why Arsenal do well against French teams. Arsenal's general away record in Europe is nothing special over the last few years. According to soccerway, in the last 10 CL away games, they've won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 - http://uk.soccerway.com/teams/england/arsenal-fc/ That might partly explain why their odds are quite high tonight. But I think they are good value are the latest prices (currently available at 1.83 DNB with Betfair).
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bacardirum

bacardirum

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Re: Champions League > September 18th Indeed, would prefer them to be even stronger on the pitch though... Why don't you tell us why they are very strong, would be insightful.

Arsenal - Mannone, Gibbs, Mert, Vermaelen, Jenkinson, Diaby, Arteta, Carloza, Podolski, Giroud, Gervinho. Very strong on paper.
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HastGill1

HastGill1

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Re: Champions League > September 18th

Indeed' date=' would prefer them to be even stronger on the pitch though... Why don't you tell us why they are very strong, would be insightful.[/quote'] Think I've said plenty already to be honest. Only changes are Mannone - who has already kept two clean sheets this season. Defence is unchanged. Diaby comes in for Coquelin, Diaby would be preferred normally. Giroud for Chamberlain probably the only change that perhaps weakens them, Gervinho and Podolski will play wide to allow Giroud to play central. Its basically a first choice XI.
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AaronFern

AaronFern

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Re: Champions League > September 18th After seeing the lineups i can see both teams have gone for the same formation 4-2-3-1, comparing both its going to be down to individuals. And the most obvious duel tonight will involve Ronaldo and Maicon, i dont care if Ronaldo is 'upset' he's going to want to score and win and when i think of Maicon i think of Gareth Bale, and i can see a similar scenario. The other duel is whether Gareth Barry who is not fully fit would be able to get to Modric enough, he looked good in the 2 appearances i've seen for Madrid, passes, shots, movement he looks good, and i can see Higuain causing problems for Kompany and Lescott, he didnt score on Sunday in the loss to Sevilla, but i seen enough of him that he's brilliant at timely runs and that will cause chaos for both of them. I do believe Man City will probably score, defensively they dont look good this season, but they do look good going forward, and with Nasri and Silva coming inside a lot and Tevez roaming round i do think they could get atleast a goal, but i wont look to back that. I feel more confident in Real's attack despite their form and leaky defence, ill back them to win despite the low value at 1.61 with Paddy Power and a small stack on the -1 handicap 2.5.

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Jase82

Jase82

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so why arsenal price gets bigger all day ????
I don't think they've really been altered by that much though have they? Arsenal opened at 2.3, and they're now 2.55 with just one firm. The rest still have them at between 2.3 and 2.4. Just because the odds shift slightly it doesn't automatically mean there has to be a piece of dramatic news that has influenced them. In arsenals case it means the potential for value is increasing :)
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Kiddo112

Kiddo112

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I don't think they've really been altered by that much though have they? Arsenal opened at 2.3' date=' and they're now 2.55 with just one firm. The rest still have them at between 2.3 and 2.4. Just because the odds shift slightly it doesn't automatically mean there has to be a piece of dramatic news that has influenced them. In arsenals case it means the potential for value is increasing :)[/quote'] Arsenal were 2.16 on betfair at 8.30 this morning, 2.64 now. I think that's a substantial enough drift in fairness. And have drifted from 2.58 - 2.64 since the teams were announced
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slizorn

slizorn

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Re: Champions League > September 18th I have got on at 2.64 for the outright and 1.83 for the DNB. Quietly confident having seen the Arsenal team that has been announced. I cannot see anything there which could have caused the drift since the release of team news though. Hopefully it is nothing too serious.

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HeresTheKey

HeresTheKey

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Re: Champions League > September 18th

monpelier - arsenal is the match that drawed my attention i see goal-goal as a quite safe bet here @ 1,83 in bet365, as the arsenal's win tends to be the public bet of the evening.every site i see speaks of how monpelier is struggling in their local championship and how they sold their best striker to arsenal blah blah blah well this is the french champion and they will be in their home.arsenal was never a trusted team to my eyes.they seem to win when they suppose to lose and the opposite. to me this could go anywhere tonight, so i dont want to bet on final result, but if arsenal scores i m sure the french they ll try to find a mistake in arsenal's defence, something which i dont see it very difficult
won after 17'!! let s watch real-city now...
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Jase82

Jase82

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Arsenal were 2.16 on betfair at 8.30 this morning' date=' 2.64 now. I think that's a substantial enough drift in fairness. And have drifted from 2.58 - 2.64 since the teams were announced[/quote'] But that's this morning... What price did they open at? My point was that a small or large odds drift doesn't necessarily mean anything major has happened.
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ThusPrider

ThusPrider

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Re: Champions League > September 18th Dang! So close for City to get at least something from the game and on two occasions I was sure they will get it! But a thoroughly enjoyable night's football and a voided bet ultimately for me... but Real deserved the win in the end despite the annoyance in the timing!

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blackcrow

blackcrow

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Re: Champions League > September 18th

Porto @ 1.97 :DDominant performance PSG @ 1.78 :D Did their job well Arsenal @ 2.45 :D Did not play their best but did enough to win Olympiakos v Schalke over 2.5 @ 2.22 :D Borussia Dortmund v Ajax over 3.5 @ 2.59 :eyes Had they scored that penalty then the goals may have started to flow but it was not to be Real Madrid v Man City over 3.5 @ 2.62 :D Pretty ordinary first half and then all of a sudden especially late in the game, every shot went in the goal. Crazy stuff
:ok
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bacardirum

bacardirum

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Re: Champions League > September 18th wow that was a touchy game, however the best team won. The first half I don't think threatened the goal at all, easily if they could have scored then it would have been a 4-0/5-0 score, full credit to Madrid, quality throughout, and I expected them to win it...

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bacardirum

bacardirum

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Re: Champions League > September 18th You were wrong Paul, how can you be a staggering price when you have no European history!! That's like saying Hearts have a staggering price of coming 2nd cause no Rangers in SPL, it means **** all...

I've only just looked at the odds here, but my brief thoughts are Man City are a staggering price! :eek:eek Real Madrid were different class last year, but they've looked very ragged so far this season and I wouldn't lay Man City at anything above 3.00 personally. That might sound a bit dramatic, but Real are looking very shabby at the moment and not handling Sevilla's constant pressure was very evident. AC Milan don't look too great at the moment either, but I find it hard to believe Anderlecht will trouble them too much, but it could be worth opposing Milan with stronger opposition.
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HastGill1

HastGill1

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Re: Champions League > September 18th

You were wrong Paul, how can you be a staggering price when you have no European history!! That's like saying Hearts have a staggering price of coming 2nd cause no Rangers in SPL, it means **** all...
What are you on about? If Man City had won the European Cup in 1978 would they have stood more chance of winning tonight!? They are the most expensively assembled squad in Europe and will be challenging for the CL. The example you give makes no sense at all.
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H1

H1

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Re: Champions League > September 18th

My selections: Arsenal/Arsenal HT/FT @3.95 5/10 pts betfair :) Arsenal (-1) ah @3.35 10/10 pts push Arsenal to score >2.5 @5.50 8/10 pts :( Arsenal to score >3.5 @17 2/10 pts :( the latter 3 bets with bet365
+5 pts I fcuked these bets a bit as I took them early fearing odds would drop, and they didn't they actually rose after Arsene told about changes to the squad Arsenal were poor the 2nd half, they just didn't want to score more, and could have easily conceded as Montpellier had their chances a win is a win though and I see some cracing winners in this thread so congratulations all - and let's earn some money tomorrow as well! :cheers
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bubblepower

bubblepower

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Re: Champions League > September 18th

I don't think they've really been altered by that much though have they? Arsenal opened at 2.3' date=' and they're now 2.55 with just one firm. The rest still have them at between 2.3 and 2.4. Just because the odds shift slightly it doesn't automatically mean there has to be a piece of dramatic news that has influenced them. In arsenals case it means the potential for value is increasing :)[/quote'] well done mate i do think i give the market too much respect
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hebert10

hebert10

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Re: Champions League > September 18th

Montpellier v Arsenal 2pts Arsenal HT/FT @ 4 Bet365 Wenger has never taken the champions league lightly and knows what it takes to get through the group stages as they have qualified in the last 6 years. He will know there are 3 points for the taking in this game as Montpellier have looked very poor this season with 4 points from a possible 15 where as Arsenal have 8 from a possible 12. Also, Wenger will want to build up some momentum ahead of the City game at the weekend and in my opinion will get the 3 points with a comfortable 2 or 3 nil win. I'm also hoping Wenger will give Diaby a start as its looking likely he will be fit for tonight so with the City game in mind some time on the pitch would definitely help. PSG v Dynamo Kiev 5pts Ibrahimovic Anytime scorer @ 2.1 Coral Really like this price as i think the Dynamo defense are really going to struggle to cope with him tonight. With the creative players PSG have got such as Pastore, Lavezzi and Gameiro i think Ibrahimovic is going to be presented with alot of chances tonight, with 5 goals in his last 4 games for PSG he's on top form and should get on the scoresheet tonight.
Both bets won :nana 2012 Football Record: 5-8 (-8.10)
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