Champions League > September 18th

[HastGill1]

Re: Champions League > September 18th

All comes around again quick doesn't it? Don't feel the CL has stopped with all the qualifiers that have been going on. Madrid have had their worst start to a season in a long while, but its hardly crisis time. They beat Barca over two legs for the super cup although they were very fortunate as Barca were the better side for most of the second leg despite being down to 10 men for 60+ minutes. I had a bet on them against Granada on various handicaps as they simply had to win or risk losing the title which sounds like madness but when you have Barca who are going to win 90% of their games you can't afford to go too far behind even at this stage. They won 3-0 but didn't play that well, Modric looks very good and has fitted in pretty seamlessly. I'm still not sure how the team will work with Modric in there as well, Ozil was superb last year and I can't see Mourinho leaving him out the team too much, if he can successfully integrate Ozil, Modric, Alonso and Ronaldo they will have a better midfield/forward line than anybody. Its difficult to know who out of Modric or Ozil will line up in this one, its easier to see Ozil in Di Maria's position on the right, but I'm not sure how he will make it all work until we are a few games further in. I wouldn't be too concerned about Ronaldo's mood swings, his ego is far too big to let it affect his performances on the pitch. Madrid won't be defensive, can guarantee that, they were a couple of times against Barca when Mourinho first arrived and was trying to see how he could beat them, but it didn't really work and he hasn't done it since. They will take the game to City and lets not forget City have hardly looked good so far this season, I would be backing Madrid with reasonable confidence in this one. Mourinho knows he has to make progress in the CL this season, by progress I mean make the final, I think I'm right in saying Mourinho has won every home CL group game he has played as Madrid manager. I think City are a good side but they are not on Madrid's level, I will find Mancini's tactics more interesting than Mourinho's for this as I don't see Mourinho deviating from their usual home line-up. City will be playing on the counter for much of it but in Aguero (assuming fully fit) and Tevez they can hurt Madrid on the break, Madrid do concede goals at home and I think they will probably concede in this one. The odds aren't going to be great, why would they be? Its the most likely outcome. City +0.5AH or +1AH will probably be the most popular play from people, but I would be more inclined to bet on Madrid breaking through a couple of times against what I still see as a vunerable away backline, Kompany is top notch and Y.Toure will be busy but they haven't signed anyone who will improve them defensively on last year and when you see them conceding 2 against Southampton, 2 against Liverpool, 1 against QPR in games so far, I would have a fear they might well concede 2 or 3 very easily. I think Benzema will play in this one ahead of Higuain and I would pick him for his physical presence up front and his link up play is possibly better at bringing others into the game. As I said Mancini's tactics will be the interesting point in this game, Milner/Rodwell and Toure are going to have to get through a hell of a lot of work in the middle closing down Alonso and Ozil/Modric as we know the Madrid forward line is pretty fluid and its difficult to pick people up, if Madrid manage to get an early goal it will really open the game up and I can see Madrid winning by 2 or 3. Not a clue how the markets are going to drift after the weekends matches but unless they are playing Barca I would take Madrid -1AH at home over evens against pretty much anybody. Real Madrid -1.0AH - 2.15 - bet365 - 5 Points VOID

Agree with the Arsenal bet, they have started surprisingly well this season, look solid at the back and will always create chances. I know little to nothing about Montpellier, and can only go off stats but as you say they haven't started the season well. Arsenal will likely dominate possession, and they have plenty of pace and creative players. I have been burnt before with big early round bets on seemingly certain winners in the CL and EL and this is far from that, to be honest I need draw cover to back this with confidence but at 1.67 I think its a solid price and one thats likely to drop in the next few days. Arsenal DNB - 1.67 - Coral - 10 Points WIN

I might be out my mind but I've followed you with a few of these :lol..already taken 10 points on Arsenal DNB at 1.67, the danger is obviously that Montpellier raise their game in their first CL match but I can't see them trying to defend for 90 minutes at home. Arsenal have started the season in excellent form and have pace all over the pitch which is always useful in away matches when they can hit on the counter, you can't ignore Arsenal's form and they certainly have goals in them, Arsenal have scored at least 1 goal in 9 of their last 11 CL away games and I think the odds are a bit off, obviously this is gameweek 1 and anything can happen but I see a lot of these prices going down a fair bit over Mon and Tues..just got a feeling about this one. Arsenal -1.0AH - 3.35 - Betinternet - 10 Points VOID Arsenal Over 1.5 Goals - 2.5 - Coral - 2.5 Points WIN Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals - 6.1 - Betinternet - 2.5 Points LOSS

Decent enough night, got very lucky though really. Arsenal were poor in the second half and were very lucky to get the three points, Montpellier were better than expected but I think they might get a few humpings in away games. Real Madrid were by far the better team but when a side is losing after 85 mins you take what you can get.

[Kiddo112]

But that's this morning... What price did they open at? My point was that a small or large odds drift doesn't necessarily mean anything major has happened.

In fairness Jase, I think the price they were this morning is more relevant as a measure of a drift than the opening price from a couple of weeks back. And u mentioned that they hadn't drifted that much (I.e. From 2.3) and that the slight drive probably didn't mean anything. My point was purely that it was more than a slight drift. Anyways, it meant nothing in the end. Well done with ur bet.

[Kiddo112]

Ok so I are most other books are odds on for over 45pts, and therefore I have had a small play on the 2.2 with Stan James. I don't want to be over exposed on cards, but I see Blue Square are offering 1.83 on the first car before the 31st min. That is tempting but will stick with the match points. Relatively small stake as have the feeling 'Joe public' expects cards here. 2pts over 45 booking points @2.2 Stan James

Made up to 30pts -2pts The early card didn't arrive, so were always struggling to get the points. Looked like getting tasty for a while in the first half, but a goal would most likely if helped. Benzema should of been carded in 2nd half, ref must of got lucky last night, he was in too good a mood. Another night may have landed. Onwards we go.

[McNasara]

Re: Champions League > September 18th

They hardly eliminated Cyprus AEL and have three consecutive draws in domestic league. The best player Suarez (fw) is long term injured and another regular striker Jovanovic is suspended. Their new coach van den Brom came from Vitesse this summer and he has no international experience. Otherwise Anderlecht have appeared 14 times in Italy and didn't win any of them. Full back Odoi is still injured, but key striker and topscorer Mbokani is back, as well as Kouyate (reg df). I don't expect a bunker from them, but rather often counter attacks. On the other hand, everyone knows that Milan lost most experienced and best players (Seedorf, Van Bommel, Inzaghi, Gattuso, Nesta, Thiago Silva and Ibrahimovic), while Montolivo, Pato, Robinho, Strasser and Muntari are injured, so it is not surprising their poor start of the season. More important match for Milan, but their odds are unacceptable to me. I can see that guests score one goal from a counter attack so I took a small bet this morning. BTS @2.25 Boylesports low stake :(

bad choice from me, congrats to many winners tonight :clap:clap

[Zacharael]

Re: Champions League > September 18th Thanks all for the Arsenal tip. Lucky I guess but in the ends the result matters! :nana

[McNasara]

Re: Champions League > September 18th A negative CL record in Zagreb last night - only 4683 fans were in the stands :lol

[Fedar]

Re: Champions League > September 18th Porto @ 1.92 :D Easy as expected. Zagreb is going to earn us lots of money I feel. Real -1 AH @ 2.10 :unsure I swear I will never again bet for Real when this pathetic cripple Higuain is playing. :spank

[Fedar]

Re: Champions League > September 18th

All my bets won.I am awesome.If someone want to thank me send me private message.Greetings

Chill out. And watch out not to fall for the trap of "easy money", because I suffered my biggest losses in betting exclusively just immediately after some huge winnings.