Flat Racing ~ Tuesday 31st July ~ Goodwood Day 1

[BillyHills]

2.00 Goodwood: Bet365.com Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) (1m1f192y) Tremendous race to kick off the meeting and I’m sure the Cumani duo will have plenty of supporters. On this occasion I like the top weight Retrieve, I think he has a bit of class and is about to strike and he will appreciate this drop in grade and a good end to end gallop. Cai Shen is interesting on better ground for the Hannon yard and two at bigger prices of interest would be Nanton and Licence To Till. Selections: 2pts Retrieve 12/1 >Bet365 1pt Cia Shen 7/1 Blue Square Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/goodwood-betting-retrieve-to-get-godolphin-off-to-winning-start-at-glorious-goodwood

[beaker1]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Tuesday 31st July ~ Goodwood Day 1 my thoughts and bets for day 1 of the goodwood festival july 31st 2.00 bet365.com Stakes (Handicap) SPANISH DUKE can provide a much need big race success for the John Dunlop team; he competes here off a mark of 96, just 1lb more than on his last success. His last two runs have been over 1m 4f, but he seems better suited to the 1m 2f trip he tackles here. A quirky individual, he can often race too keenly which has hampered his chances in previous races. If things go to plan and he settles better he is more than capable of improving his 13th place in this race last year, especially as he was rated 7lb higher that day and was hampered 3 furlongs from home. Landaman could prove the chief danger for the masterful Goodwood trainer Mark Johnston, having won his last two starts, both at Beverley, in convincing fashion. Although he is 9lb higher in the weights today, Darren Egan takes off a valuable 5lb. The same rider/trainer combination teamed up to good effect at the weekend with Scatter Dice, so the same tactic could prove very shrewd once more. Sir Henry Cecil’s Specific Gravity could also be of interest after being gelded. It appeals to me that a trainer such as Sir Henry has kept faith with this son of Dansili, despite a few disappointing efforts in more competitive races. Arguably his best form came when he was 4th in a Group 3 at Ascot behind Pisco Sour. It would be a little bit of a gamble to back this horse but he is certainly one of the more intriguing runners on the card. The final horse to make the shortlist is Godolphin’s apparent second string runner, Start Right, who has previously won a 19-runner handicap at Goodwood. He ran consistently over the winter in Dubai and was given a nice introduction to the season at Newmarket to put him right for this, so as long as the winter campaign hasn’t taken too much out of him a big run could be on the cards. 2.35 bet365 Gordon Stakes (Group 3) The Gordon Stakes is a race widely contested by promising 3yo staying types who have aspirations to capture the final Classic of the season. Conduit was the last horse to win at Goodwood before going on to win at Doncaster, and St Leger entrants Michelangelo, Noble Mission, Encke and Minimise Risk will all be looking to emulate this feat. It is becoming a regular theme this season, but once again it seems that John Gosden holds all the aces in this contest, courtesy of MICHELANGELO, the clear third favourite for the St Leger at 10/1. William Buick will once again be on board this son of Galileo (who cost connections 550,000 guineas); victory is a requisite should they have serious hopes of going on to bigger and better things. He is definitely my pick for the race after impressing in each of his three runs to date. Thrown in at the deep end on his debut when pitted against today’s rival Noble Mission and Godolphin’s Mariner’s Cross, both of whom had racecourse experience on their side, he put in a more than creditable performance to finish just ¾ of a length third behind the pair. That day he struck me as an ideal St Leger candidate; a step up in trip is likely to suit. Following the aforementioned third place, he scrambled home in a 4-runner Listed race over 1m 3f. He then improved again last time out to take a valuable race at Newmarket in cosy fashion, but he now races over 1m 4f for the first time, a trip I believe will bring out vast improvement. He is almost certain to start favourite in a race which has been kind to market leaders, with five of the last six renewals going to the jolly; this strengthens my confidence in the selection and he looks the one to beat. The likely challengers look to be Encke, Noble Mission and Girolamo, with the latter my second preference. He finished third in the German Derby last time out, beaten only ½ a length, which is arguably the best form on offer here. Trained by handler of the Arc and King George heroine Danedream, Starke has shown himself adept at challenging for top prizes across Europe. Officially rated the best horse in the race, Girolamo has to be feared if the travelling doesn’t affect this promising young colt; he is more than capable of making his presence felt in this contest. 3.10 bet365 Lennox Stakes (Group 2) Richard Hannon and Sir Henry Cecil have both saddled the winner of this race in the last two years with Strong Suit (2011) and Lord Shanakill (2010) respectively; this year they both have strong chances in what in all fairness looks a weak renewal of the race. Hannon is represented by Libranno, who was beaten in this race 12 months ago; Cecil runs his tough mare, Chachamaidee, who is currently a strong 7/4 favourite. The market leaders, however, have a poor recent record in this contest, winning only two of the last ten. Sir Henry’s charge probably edges ahead as the form pick in the race, but given her fairly poor record in terms of wins (5-17) I am willing to look elsewhere. This leads me to William Haggas’ Firebeam, a horse who has yet to fulfil his true potential. The pick of his form comes from his run three starts back in a Listed race at Haydock, in which he was beaten by Red Jazz, who was second in this race last year. A lot of his racing has come with cut in the ground, but he did dot up in a York handicap on good ground, so I am intrigued to see how he goes, with Ryan Moore booked, on better ground. Bryan Smart isn’t renowned for training top class horses, but given his resources he is a very useful trainer, proving this when Tangerine Tress won the Group 1 Prix De L’Abbaye last season. He runs the Irish 2000 Guineas runner-up FOXTROT ROMEO, who will receive weight from the entire field as the only 3yo in the line-up, an age group which has dominated in winning 4 of the last 5 renewals. Although he hasn’t won since his debut he has shown solid form. In the St James’ Palace he tired late on over a mile, finishing 4th behind the impressive Most Improved, and as previously mentioned he was the runner-up to Power in the Irish 2000 Guineas. Twice he has tired late on over a mile suggesting he is well worth a crack at this 7f trip, something I believe will see him in a better light, making him very difficult to beat. 3.45 bet365 Molecomb Stakes (Group 3) The Molecomb Stakes is a 5f sprint for 2 year olds which has been won by some smart types such as Monsieur Chevalier, Zebedee and Requinto in recent times. Only the last of the trio wasn’t trained by Richard Hannon, who is represented this year by Lyric Ace and Dominate. Although the former appears to be the stable’s first string on jockey bookings, I slightly prefer the horse Ryan Moore rides. This son of Assertive dotted up on soft ground last time out at Sandown in fine style. I don’t think the good ground they are likely to race on this week will be a problem, giving him a strong each-way shout. Jadanna also makes the shortlist having shown solid from in defeat at both Ascot, where she finished fifth despite racing on the unfavoured part of the course, and then at Newmarket, where she finished third behind Sendmylovetorose in the Cherry Hinton. That was over 6f, which did seem to stretch her, so the drop back to 5f is a definite plus. This, combined with her capabilities on faster ground, should put her right there at the finish. They may all, however, be chasing home Roger Varian’s MORAWIJ, who finished fourth behind Reckless Abandon in the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot. That particular rival has franked the form when winning a Group 2 in France, in which she beat Richard Hannon’s well regarded Sir Prancelot. Varian’s Exceed and Excel colt then scored in convincing fashion in a Sandown Listed race on good ground, suggesting he is definitely on the up; with more progress to come, Morawij could hold all the aces here. 4.15 Casino at bet365 EBF Maiden Stakes This is a really tough open maiden with not a great deal of form to go on; therefore I am sticking with those who have shown something on the racecourse. John Gosden’s season just keeps on getting better so it would be foolish to pass over any of his runners lightly, with BLESSINGTON looking to hold strong claims in this particular contest. He was sixth on his debut at Windsor but that run was far better than the form suggests; he started the race slowly before being hampered severely. Things just didn’t go to plan that day, so given a clear run, as well as breaking on terms, he should be there or thereabouts. Richard Fahey’s Garswood also appears to hold every chance on the back of a solid third in a competitive York maiden. This son of Dutch Art holds a Gimcrack entry, suggesting the horse is held in some regard. One to consider at a slightly bigger price is Prince Regal, who ran disappointingly last time out after a promising debut. I am trusting the drop to 5f last time out wasn’t ideal, so when stepping back up to 6f and encountering real good ground for the first time, he could well outrun his odds. 4.50 Poker at bet365 Stakes (Handicap) Plenty of this field seem fairly exposed with the handicapper appearing to hold the upper hand, however this cannot be said about the unexposed JACOB CATS for the Hannon and Hughes team. He is the only 3 year old in the race, which for me is a positive, especially given three of the last six renewals of this race has been won by this particular age group. He has now won three of his six career starts, including his last two races, so he could not be arriving here in better form. Although carrying a 6lb penalty for his latest success at Sandown six days ago, the manner in which he won was very impressive, suggesting that a prize of this nature is well within his reach. Snow Bay could well be capable of exploiting a mark of 85 if repeating the form shown at Ripon three starts ago. His last two starts can be discounted due to soft ground at York and the slow surface at Southwell. Both of these runs were also over 7f and the return to 1m on good ground should present perfect conditions. Another runner which could well make the frame is Scott Dixon’s Askaud, who finished a credible runner-up last time out at York off this mark. She is a previous course winner off a 2lb lower mark, so cannot be discounted, especially if the blinkers do the trick once more. War Singer occupies the fourth position on my shortlist despite the 1m trip seemingly being a negative. Eddie Ahern rides the horse once again, having finished third over 1m 2f last time on soft ground, tiring in the final furlong. They can often go a frantic pace in these types of races, which may just bring the stamina of this horse in to play and he could well be staying on late to challenge. 5.25 Mobile at bet365 Stakes (Handicap) A 26 runner 5f Handicap to finish the day does not make things easy, therefore it may be worth approaching this race with a fair degree of caution. I will however try to pick out a few of the likely contenders. Falasteen remains 3lb below his last winning mark and is likely to be at home on the forecast ground conditions. The booking of Richard Hughes is an eye-catching one; this, as well as the previous solid performances in big field handicaps, could see him make the shake-up. Perfect Blossom’s recent form has been far from inspiring; she did however win at Goodwood 2 years ago in identical conditions, off the same handicap rating of 84, and therefore everything could well pan out perfectly. Kingsgate Choice is another to consider as he will be racing back on a sounder surface. The soft ground at Newmarket was far from ideal last time out, and having won three times on good to firm ground he might be worth taking a chance on; Tom Queally is booked to ride him for the first time. The horse I am most confident about however, is R WOODY, who has won two from two here at Goodwood. A respectable reappearance on unsuitable soft ground at Newmarket behind Steps last time out should have put the horse spot on for this. His second course win was also off a mark of 89, 4lb lower than his current rating, making him dangerously well handicapped if rediscovering his best form.

[Stevet1859]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Tuesday 31st July ~ Goodwood Day 1 2:35 Goodwood: Girolamo 1pt win 11/2 Stan James Danedream's trainer and jockey link up again here with another interesting runner. Girolamo was third in the German Derby at Hamburg and while its not easy to assess that form it was done no harm when the winner went in again next time out by eight lengths in a Munich Group One. The German bred and trained horses seem to do well when they travel abroad and Peter Schiergen is in good form. Girolamo looks likely to go well here. 3:45 Goodwood: Dominate 1pt win 12/1 Bet365 Dominate looks to be the Richard Hannon second string here, however, with Ryan Moore up he could go well on this better surface. Looking at Dominate's pedigree he is by Assertive who's best runs were on a good or even firmer going, so there is a decent chance Dominate could step up again here. Dominate is also the most lightly raced of the lineup which again gives hope for further improvement.

[BillyHills]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Tuesday 31st July ~ Goodwood Day 1 5.25 Goodwood: Mobile At Bet365 Stakes (Handicap) (Class 3) (5f) Very tricky puzzle to round the day off and many can be given a chance. Its difficult to be confident about anything but I’m going to take a punt on R Woody to bounce back on a track he loves for Robert Cowell. The betting favours those drawn low but I fancy Invincible Lad could belie his odds from stall 24, he’s well handicapped nowadays and may have another big run in his locker now he’s switched to Milton Bradley. Selections: 1pt EW R Woody 12/1 Ladbrokes 1pt EW Invincible Lad 25/1 >Paddy Power Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/goodwood-betting-cowell-to-strike-with-r-woody-in-glorious-goodwood-day-one-finale

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Tuesday 31st July ~ Goodwood Day 1

3:45 Goodwood: Dominate 1pt win 12/1 Bet365 Dominate looks to be the Richard Hannon second string here, however, with Ryan Moore up he could go well on this better surface. Looking at Dominate's pedigree he is by Assertive who's best runs were on a good or even firmer going, so there is a decent chance Dominate could step up again here. Dominate is also the most lightly raced of the lineup which again gives hope for further improvement.

I really fancy this horse as well and like you I am hoping for the better ground to bring about even more improvement. I also like the fact he is a horse that likes to settle out the back, as they tend to go too fast early on being too keen as they bowl down the hill, leaving them exposed to something who has saved that little bit extra.

[bowles10]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Tuesday 31st July ~ Goodwood Day 1 GOODWOOD I always turn to Ryan Moore at Goodwood and again will concentrate on his rides through the meeting 2.00 KING TORUS is a horse that i tipped at Royal Ascot in the Royal Hunt Cup where it finished 19th of 30. It has won here before and has won off a mark of 108 and 110, so tomorrows mark of 105 is a capable winning mark if returning to form. The ground possibly needs to be a bit softer however good ground is not a problem if the rain doesnt come. 25/1 EW Bet365 1st 4 home 3.10 FIREBEAM has ran 8 times and never out of the 1st 3 so expect another true run tomorrow in this group 2 contest. Got stuck in the mud last time out but doesnt mind it slow so whatever the ground brings, it should be ok. Cecil trained favourite is the one to beat but i can see this one chasing it home. 8/1 Bet365 1st 2 3.45 I would actually cover 2 horses here with Ryan on DOMINATE and also Channon's horse BUNGLE INTHEJUNGLE who ran really well in the Windsor Castle stakes at Royal Ascot. Dominate held on to win at Sandown and could be anything although Ryan's handling will help and although may be Hannons second string, has a chance at decent odds. Dominate 12/1 Bet365 EW Bungle inthejungle 16/1 Bet365 EW 4.50 JACKS REVENGE goes up in the weights again after its recent win and is now on a hat trick. Ryan Moore keeps the ride and as an improving 4yo, i see no reason why it cannot make the frame again in what looks a very competitve mile handicap 6/1 Bet365

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Tuesday 31st July ~ Goodwood Day 1 *Fitz Flyer - Goodwood 5:25* Ran really well at Ascot last time out on it's first run for Dandy Nicholls behind Barnet Fair only 2 days ago. Was 6th of 18 that day, and really travelled well in the race and wasn't given an awful hard time. Runs in a 26 runner field here, but drops in class from Class 2 to Class2 3, and Adrian Nicholls has opted to ride this one ahead of the others which may be significant. Even though it was 6th, it was only about 1 length behind Barnet Fair, and 16/1 is madness in my opinion. It runs off the same mark of 90 and must have a place chance at least. *0.5 Points e/w @ 16/1 >Bet365 BOG*

[BKI Punter]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Tuesday 31st July ~ Goodwood Day 1 2:00 Goodwood Cai Shen 2pt win - 8/1 (B365) Landaman 1pt win - 10/1 (B365) Spanish Duke 1pt win - 20/1 (B365) All three have big shouts and represent value for me here. Cai Shen hasn't run a bad race all season but isn't massively well handicapped. However, here, I think a few of the market leaders aren't improving that much and may allow for him to have his day. This is his trip. Landaman is unexposed, enjoys good ground and has a trainer in form. He won eased down last time out after an impressive victory in another handicap. Spanish Duke is back down to a realistic handicap mark. He always travels well but is very keen. If he settles, he's going to go close soon off this mark so 20/1 is well worth taking. This is also his most ideal trip. 2:35 Goodwood Noble Mission 3pt win - 10/3 (Bet365) Encke 1pt win - 9/1 (B365) Farhaan 1pt win - 10/1 (B365) Noble Mission has never run a bad race and managed to reverse form with Thought Worthy lto although that one did run in the Derby. The favourite is well worth taking on at 11/8. A lot of these runners aren't completely exposed and in comparison with what he's done, he shouldn't be 11/8. Encke and Farhaan would both have been entitled to need their reappearances and if progressing are both massive prices. Backing three horses in a seven runner race could make me look silly, but I think the favourite is hugely vulnerable and worth taking on. 3:10 Goodwood Foxtrot Romeo 2pt win - 5/1 (William Hill) The favourite will be hard to beat here but worth a go with an admirable horse from this weak generation of 3yos. He's mixed it in the top grade this year over a mile and will appreciate the shorter trip. He gets weight from the field and is still progressing. 5/1 is more than fair in this field. He could run the finish out of the favourite if he kicks at the right time.

[mowgli77]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Tuesday 31st July ~ Goodwood Day 1 Goodwood 3.10pm Chachamaidee - banker of the day??? It should be really but I have a sneaky feeling Firebeam will be a very different horse on this ground compared to the heavy bog it ran on last time out. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/goodwood-betting-chachamaidee-should-get-back-to-winning-ways-over-7f-in-lennox-stakes Goodwood 2.35pm Michelangelo will be all the rage and could be miles better than these but I back on proven form and back potential at the right price. This horse looks short on what it has actually achieved and Farhaan will be a better horse on faster ground, has purposely been kept off the soft surfaces. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/goodwood-betting-gosden-hotpot-michelangelo-expected-to-lay-down-leger-credentials-but-looks-opposable

[mattmcandrew]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Tuesday 31st July ~ Goodwood Day 1 2:00, Goodwood It is going to bucket down all night, so the ground should be at least good to soft, soft in places come the opening race. There aren't many running who would relish a soft ground slog. Kirthill could well be one of them after finishing in good style in the Wolferton, but that race has hardly thrown up too many wonder stories. Three that finished ahead of him that day have been soundly beaten since in both listed and handicap company on heavy ground, so I would say there are a few question marks hanging over the form of that race. One that really takes my fancy is Don't Call Me. Now I know it is very easy to tip up a horse that won last time out - hell, I do it often enough. However, there was plenty to like about his last two runs. His latest was a dour effort at Haydock on soft ground in class three handicap company. He was been niggled and hustled and bustled and scrubbed and shoved from about halfway but made excellent headway when everybody else was beginning to toil. The winning time was faster than any other than day by about three seconds, and it's fair to say he stayed on strongly. His third in the Hunt Cup was also impressive. People will suggest he didn't stay. I think he did stay. He just got there a little too soon and began to idle. Stepping back up into class two company, he'll appreciate carrying less weight and he's certain to give you a run for your money. He could look in trouble from the start, but that's all part of the fun and games! Don't Call Me @ 14/1 with Bet365

[BillyHills]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Tuesday 31st July ~ Goodwood Day 1 3.45 Goodwood: Bet365 Molecomb Stakes (Group 3) (5f) Decent renewal of the Molecomb Stakes and easy to see why Morawij is the market leader, his run at Ascot was a good effort although he didn’t have to beat much last time at Sandown and he looks plenty short enough for me. The Hannon team are in better form now and Lyric Ace could show us what he’s made of at last after excuses the last twice. The top one Bungle Inthejungle looks too big at 16/1 for Mick Channon as is an each way alternative. Selections: 2pts Lyric Ace 8/1 Stan James 1pt EW Bungle Inthejungle 16/1 Ladbrokes Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/goodwood-betting-hannon-and-hughes-to-play-thier-ace-in-molecomb-at-glorious-goodwood

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Tuesday 31st July ~ Goodwood Day 1 Joining the Spanish Duke party. Think he's much too big: 2.00 Goodwood - 2pts win Spanish Duke @ 20/1 (Bet365) The John Dunlop team will be praying for a winner and this would be just the tonic to get the yard off the cold list. His runners are running okay on the whole so there is some encouragement ahead of Glorious Goodwood and I think this horse has a fine chance at a big price in the opener of the festival. Spanish Duke is a free-going sort who relishes the downhill nature of Epsom and it's clear sharper tracks are in his favour and the easier finish here will prove much more ideal than at Ascot, last time out, for example. It's also a positive in my eyes that he's dropped back down in trip to the 9 1/2f on offer here today as he does hamper his chances by pulling fiercely. That can still happen over this trip but it should have less impact at the finish than when he did just that at the royal meeting last time out. The softer conditions there would have been against him too but he travelled well (as usual) but just didn't see it out over 1m4f with the stiffer finish there with some cut. Prior to that effort he was an unfortunate 3rd at his beloved Epsom. He pulled again, and the trip was 1m4f also, but it's less taxing there on better ground and but for lacking a clear run early in the straight, he may well have won. He powered home when in the clear and that shows to me that he's in good heart when he has his conditions. It's a good move dropping him back to what might be his best trip and the better ground does help. He's now only 1lb higher than his last win (a very comfortable success at Epsom) so he's poised to strike and his wide draw should be nullified somewhat by his usual tactics of being dropped in. You need plenty of luck at Goodwood so that's a concern, as is his record at the track. He's been well-held on both occasions he's run here but the way he handles Epsom suggests there were probably other factors that led to him disappointing. For example last year he wasn't in brilliant form going into the race, suffered from little room up the straight and was high in the handicap. He comes into the race better this year and this will suit much more than the Ascot race he competed in last time. I think he'll be travelling as well as anything and I just hope he gets the split and can quicken better than when he was last here.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Tuesday 31st July ~ Goodwood Day 1 3.45 Goodwood - 2pts win Bungle Inthejungle @ 16/1 (Bet365) I think Mick Channon's speedy colt is a bit overpriced here. Although he may not have the potential class of one or two of these, he's a smart horse in his own right and looks sure to run his race in my opinion. The 5f here is very quick and given this runner managed to take 2 lengths or so out of the Windsor Castle field at one point, he certainly has the required pace to excel here. He ran a blinder in the race, only tiring late on to finish 1 1/4l down in 4th. The downhill nature of the course should suit ideally and from stall 10 he looks to be in with a great chance of bagging the stands rail. The more fancied runners in the race haven't proved to be horses who want to be right at the front so it may just be that my selection can set his stall out from the front and the others struggling to get by. He shouldn't be stopping too badly in my eyes and he ran a sound race over in France last time. He wasn't beaten all that far and some of those in that race have since run well behind Reckless Abandon and Sir Prancealot - which appears strong form. If he pings the gates I just find it hard to believe he won't be right in the firing line until late on and fingers crossed he can hang on to win.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Tuesday 31st July ~ Goodwood Day 1 4.50 Goodwood - 4pts win Jacob Cats @ 3/1 (Ladbrokes) The one thing I noticed about this race especially was there seem to be quite a few front-runners and that should mean this plays into the hands of a closer, and Richard Hannon's progressive miler fits the bill so long as he is in good shape having won at Sandown just six days ago. That victory made it two in a row and a 6lb penalty is going to be tough to stop him going in once more. A wide draw is far from ideal but he's a horse who likes to be patiently ridden and has a nice turn of foot which could be crucial here. The race he won two starts back has worked out well and he's now only had six runs so further improvement looks likely. He was 1 1/4l too strong last time, having asserted nicely once he hit the front and he looks a horse to keep on the right side of for the time being at least. He'll need plenty of luck but so long as he gets it I think he's going to be tough to beat.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Tuesday 31st July ~ Goodwood Day 1 5.25 Goodwood - 1pt win Falasteen @ 20/1 (Bet365) This is essentially a minefield, highlighted by the favourite being a 9/1 chance, and I'll take my chance with a well-handicapped horse who has shown a bit more life of late for a new yard. Falasteen has been with five different trainers now, with Milton Bradley now in control, and all of his handicap successes have come off marks either the same as the 82 he runs off here, or higher. He was beaten 1/2l off 92 just a year or so ago so he's plenty capable enough and a downhill 5f on quickish ground seems ideal for him - for all he was taken off his feet at Epsom last time out behind Fair Value. Four or his five career wins have come at tracks not stiff in nature so this venue should suit and he has run okay the last few times. His two efforts in claiming/selling company before joining up with Bradley weren't terrible but he was undone by the lack of a true test and that will certainly be different here. A bit of cut and a more galloping track in Bath caught him out two starts ago and he showed sufficient promise at Epsom to get me interested today. He couldn't go the early ferocious pace and although he stayed on late in the day, the winner had flown. It was a quick time and he's often got more early pace than that. This isn't going to be quite as quick as Epsom, which gives me hope that the front-runners will be coming back more than on that occasion and they'll probably go even a little bit quicker given the competition for the lead. I hope he can hold a position a bit better now and he's been dropped a further pound. Richard Hughes is an eyecatching jockey booking having only had 3 rides for the yard previously, and I think he's capable of producing a big run. However, it's such a ridiculously difficult race to call, so only a small bet is possible.

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Tuesday 31st July ~ Goodwood Day 1 3.10 good foxtrot romeo 102 chacaimaidee 95 firebeam 93 edinburgh knight 93 foxtrot romeo looks a fantastic bet here at the current prices to take this race ,possesses a sharp turn of foot and will be very hard to peg back with conditions ideal ,chacaimaidee will be dangerous as often picks up a big race and is also a very quick horse buts odds suggest foxtrot romeo is by far the value bet in this at 6/1 foxtrot romeo 5pts win 6/1 paddy power

[Edberg]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Tuesday 31st July ~ Goodwood Day 1 4.05 Beverley FEAR NOTHING 4pts win 5/2 bog (Bet365) Looked a decent prospect when in training for Ed McMahon in 2009-2010 but took one year to win a race (a maiden over 5f at Lingfield) and had been disappointing also in 2011 for Ian McInnes. Moved to David O'Meara's yard this year the 5yo gelding has been rejuvenated after a couple of modest efforts on the Fibresand at the start of the year and has been enjoying a super month of July (back on track after more than 5 months) with 2 wins in 2 races, both over 5f on good/good to firm at Doncaster and Newcastle and both with 7lb claimer David Bergin on board. The young promising jockey is retained for the ride today and after the impressive style of the latest win at Newcastle 3 days ago this seems another good opportunity (under the mandatory 6lb penalty) to complete the hat-trick. Races off 69 today but last time out won off 63 by 3.75L even if badly hunging right and recording a RPR of 82. Track should suit, ground no problem, draw shouldn't be an issue, same winning jockey confirmed who is 1-2 at Beverley, 5-20 in the last 2 months and 5-18 for David O'Meara, stable on fire at the moment (3 winners and 3 thirds from their last 8 runners) and 6-30 at Beverley over the last 2 years with 3yo+ runners and opposition nothing special with the main dangers that should be Last Sovereign who won last time out but faces a tough 6lb penalty today and needs things to drop to be competitive from this mark, Red Cape who also won last time out but has got a wide draw and last race was a seller, Select Committee narrowly beaten by Last Sovereign last time out and former C&D winner but on a long losing streak and not really with a strong progressing profile to justify too much confidence off this career highest mark, and Tabaret who has been very regular of late (3 thirds in his last 3 races) and won twice over C&D but seems hard to win with nowadays.

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Tuesday 31st July ~ Goodwood Day 1 2.00 good for me this race seems to hinge on whether the distance holds any fears for LAS VERGLAS STAR .....who ran an absolute cracker on the clock lto recording a 102 but got into all sorts of trouble and probably lost 6 lengths an still recorded a fast time so if he can handle the drop back to 8f then this is horse is super quick ..wont have things his own way with kirthill and retrieve in there with chances but this is his to lose ...... las verglas star 3pts e.w 6/1 paddy power

[Edberg]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Tuesday 31st July ~ Goodwood Day 1 5.40 Beverley TINSELTOWN 4pts win @ 15/8 bog (Bet365) 6yo by Sadler's Wells who had been a major disappointment for Aidan O'Brien (purchased for 380,000gns) but finally started to show some decent form this year with the training of Brian Rothwell winning in impressive style (combined 39L ahead of the second) twice over hurdles where he added also 3 seconds all within a couple of months (30th March-14th June) and back on the flat he bolted up firs time out at Catterick over 1m4f on soft ground off a mark of 46, was a bit disappointing when upped in distance for a 1m6f race at York (soft) when just 4th but won again two in a row in the last fortnight when gamely in front at the business end here at Beverley over 1m2f on good to firm off 57 and again at Catterick over 1m4f on good to firm 6 days ago in an apprentice handicap off 63 (under a 6lb penalty). For his previous narrow success over C&D Tinseltwon was upped just 3lb and gets no penalty for his last success so he's racing off a mark of 60 today which is 3lb lower than last time out and gets a very good 3lb claimer in Miss H. Bethell on board, Bethell won her second race of the year just 10 days ago for Brian Ellison at Market Rasen. Gold Rules, Kathlatino and Kyle Of Bute the three horses to beat here but none of them seems so well handicapped off their current marks even if all three are in good form and have a good lady rider on board.

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Tuesday 31st July ~ Goodwood Day 1 3.45 good mowarij is short fav for this but i think he is defintely beatable and must be taken on at around 7/4 especially with the likes of jadanna who will appreciate the return to good ground which he chased ceiling kitty over recording a 105 in the process which would easilly give him good chances today as the fav is currently only 98 on the clock ,htoto has recorded a 100 in the past also so both are capable of giving this fav a run for his money and with paddy power refunding stakes if you finish 2nd to the fav it looks a no brainer to me htoto 4pts win 11/2 paddt p jadaana 4pts win 5/1 paddy p

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Tuesday 31st July ~ Goodwood Day 1 4.50 good jacob cats sets the standard here and will be hard to beat today but there seems a worthwhile risk of a big win in this race in the shape of COLOUR GUARD 18/1 BETVIC ..jacob cats is 3/1 and may improve again but thats justa possible as penalty might also hold him ......colour guard ran a cracker lto recording a 99 over 10f and there is a possibilty that he will not be as effective at 8f but he has dropped to a very nice mark and mark johnston is a trainer to be respected in big races ......will be tough going to beat this fav but lets have a shot at a big win later in the day ....it will provide a bit of excitement whatever happens colour guard 10pts e.w 18/1 betvic

[Edberg]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Tuesday 31st July ~ Goodwood Day 1 5.35 Galway SPA'S DANCER 3pts win @ 11/1 bog (Bet365) Progressive 5yo gelding by Danehill Dancer trained by promising trainer Ed de Giles since this year and during this spring-summer campaign Spa's Dancer has been showing his best progressing race after race and collecting 1 win, 3 seconds, 1 third and 1 fourth in 6 starts with his RPRs showing very well his progression: 68-83-94-95-100-101. The first of those 6 races came on soft/heavy but last time out at Sandown it was a stiff mile on good to soft (Coral Challenge Handicap with 43k to the winner) and Spa's Dancer finished 3rd of 14 beaten just 2L by the impressive Trade Commissioner (upped 7lb after that win) who is a late progressive 4yo trained by Gosden for Lady Rotschild who has won 3 of his last 4 starts and is the market leader of the Betfred Mile (Heritage Handicap) that will be run at Goodwood on the 3rd of August. That very good third came off a 1lb lower mark and Spa's Dancer had run very well also on his previous start when crossed the Irish Sea to make a visit at the Curragh on the 30th of June to finish 2nd of 14 in another rich and quality mile. Today's jockey Chris Hayes is a perfect choice imho as he is strong rider who's enjoying a very good season (26 wins so far). The draw in stall nr.5 isn't bad at all, stable in very good form (2 winners in the last fortnight) and even if facing a tough competition with plenty of good milers he has to have a very good chance off his current mark in this form, handles any ground and could bring back to Ledbury this big prize (€69k to the winner).

[Edberg]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Tuesday 31st July ~ Goodwood Day 1 2.00 Goodwood LAS VERGLAS STAR 4pts win @ 6/1 bog (Ladbrokes and many more) 4yo trained by Richard Fahey who finished twice second on his last two starts off 84 and 86. Last time out was very unlucky and should have won imho and today's mark is still the same (86). Paul Hanagan on board, perfect draw in stall nr. 3, stable on fire (5 winners in the last 2 days, 28 in July), perfect trip, no problem for the ground and ran a very good race when 4th on today's track last year (big handicap). 17 good horses to beat but the main dangers are at the top of the weights and give my selection plenty of weights (1st-1st7lb) and most of them (Retrieve, Cai Shen, Danadana and Kirthill) don't seem too well handicapped off their current marks (Danadana is the least exposed and comes from 2 wins in a row for an in-form stable but faces a very tough taks off an 8lb higher mark today imho). In the bottom part of the handicap the main danger is Landaman, a Mark Johnston-trained 4yo who gets a very good 5lb claimer on board and won last twice, but from stall nr. 17 and facing another 8lb rise since his last win Landaman seems to have a tough task today.

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Tuesday 31st July ~ Goodwood Day 1 5.25 good big 20_hcap sprint to finish the day but i like to have a bash in these races ........ very open race and its difficult to know where to start but cutting long storys short i like the look of CRUISETOTHELIMIT who showed improved form lto ....(last 2 ratings 91 97 ) and won easily so has the profile of an improving horse so even though this is a competitive hcap if this horse is capable of near 100 on the clock then he will make these go and at 10/1 he looks a bit of a decent bet .of the bigger priced horses ...i like DESERT STRIKE who has been a bit disappointing overall but has always looksed a horse with talent and this horse also showed improved form lto recording a 95 albeit in a lowly race but the clock doesnt lie so now returns to hcap company on a fair mark ....computer has flagged as outstanding value at 19.5 so ill have a bash cruisetothelimit 5pts win 14.5 betfair desert strike 5pts saver 19.5 betfair its a bit of a lottery but you never know .......

[robertob]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Tuesday 31st July ~ Goodwood Day 1 15.10 Goodwood: Foxtrot Romeo @ 6/1 Bet365 Fairly open race in my mind and I think the only 3yo in the race is overpriced. Foxtrot Romey is still lightly raced and did well in a few Group races so far. He finished a good fourth in the Mill Reef Stakes last year and looked improved this year when having his seasonal reappearance in the Irish 2.000 Guineas. He looked amazing before the race in the parade ring and it was no surprise to see him doing well there. He finished 2nd to Power eventually, only one lengths beaten in the end. He then turned up in the St. James's Palace Stakes at Ascot, he looked dangerous till 1f out, chasing the eventual winner Most Improved but tired badly in the final 200y or so. So a step back to 7f might be in his favour. He also steps down in class and with the weight for age allowance I think he should run a big race.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Tuesday 31st July ~ Goodwood Day 1

Decision By One 2.15 Ayr. 1 point win. Looks solid here with the ground seemingly racing on the faster side of good. The trip's fine and with the main dangers having weight rises to deal with, it all points to a win today. 5/6 Bet365 (bog)

[Falbrav]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Tuesday 31st July ~ Goodwood Day 1 BARABOY 2.25 Beverley. 1 point win. Did fairly well on debut considering the trip was against him. Races over a much more suitable trip today and should be better for last time's experience. Trainer in good form and no surprise to see him run very well at a big price in a very unexposed race. 20/1 Bet365 BOG

[nickf88]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Tuesday 31st July ~ Goodwood Day 1 Well done Rupert, BH and Bowles with Bungleinthejungle! Great win there for you guys :ok

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Tuesday 31st July ~ Goodwood Day 1 Top effort from the horse. Gone from thinking 1m+ handicaps are a strength to a big weakness!

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Tuesday 31st July ~ Goodwood Day 1 Yip, nice winner folks, very game performance, Harley is a class act also.