BBOTD Tuesday 17th July

[nickf88]

Sorry for putting this up a bit early but want to take the price incase it drops dramatically tomorrow. 2:00 Beverley - Forster Street - 1pt Win (9/1, Bet365) Usual type that I'm interested in, 3 'terrible' maiden runs (finished 4th on same course last time out which was a good run in reality) then gelded before making it's reappearance over a longer distance on it's handicap debut. Graham Gibbons booked hopefully for a winning job tomorrow and Tim Easterby is in amazing form recently, banging in a 5 timer Saturday so this horse making it's reappearance at this time hopefully is a sign of intent. Hopefully there will be a bit of money for this now to cement it's likelihood of a good run tomorrow.

[gman1]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 17th July Learn 610 killarney 11/10 bet365 such is the red hot form of the all conquering coolmore stable that its a wonder this one, whose form includes a third in a french group 1, is allowed to start odds against in what is a weakish race. should be up to winning this, with elusive ridge the only real danger.

[robertob]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 17th July 16.15 Ffos Las: Asker @ 5/2 Bet365 Competitive Handicap but I feel Asker might have to much to offer from his opening mark of 81. He won a NHF at Worcester last year by 11 lengths and looked improved when making his seasonal reappearance three weeks ago at Chepstow. he looked big and strong but also very green, missing the break and loosing a couple of lengths entering the home straight. He was certainly not an easy ride for young Katia Scallan but ran on very well to win by 6 lengths in the end only hands and heels ridden in the closing stages. With more experience he might have won it by ten and more probably. The race came on heavy ground so I assume the soft underfoot conditions at Ffos Las won't be a problem for him, neither should be the step up in trip to 1m 6f. He should have learned plenty from his recent start anyway and could be a good deal better than a class 4 Handicapper who is rated 81.

[corky]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 17th July 1615 ffos las 1 pt win asker 5/2 bet365 won on both its starts,and has same ground conditions as last win but an extra 2 furlongs to deal with, it has already won over 2 miles in good ground last last october, big danger will be billidin who attempts a 6 timer

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 17th July *Future Security - Yarmouth 8:20* The Godolphin team have been on fire of late and this could be another winner to add to the list. Looking at the form, this horse was 3rd on debut to Thought Worthy, who is a top horse now. It then went on to win it's second run at Redcar, but that form behind Thought Worthy looks very interesting, especially as it was on heavy ground, and tomorrow will be soft aswell. 79 looks a leniant opening mark in handicaps for a horse that could well turn out to be a group horse. 8 of Bin Suroor's last 22 runners have won, he is in great form. Big chance. *1 Point WIN @ 9/4 VC BOG*

[jayalexander]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 17th July 2:00 Beverley - Gangsterbankers Elaine Burke and M C Geran have had a shockingly good partnership in the last 14 days, with 5 wins from 7 runs. The trainer's only ever had one runner at the track, which returned a winner and has the highest win percentage when compared to other trainers in the race. 12/1 bet365 (BOG) - win

[FedericoBTH]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 17th July SOUTHWELL 6.00 Wreningham - 0.5pts E/W 12/1 (VCBet) BOG This one popped out immediately out of the racecards. 5f longtime specialist this 7yo has an incredible 2/4 record over C+D, having collected two wins there last December. He is a very competitive horse over this distance and except for Soopacal I don't see anyone else clearly better than him on paper. Back to Class 5 after some decent performances in 4 (he was 5th out of 9 when back after break just two weeks ago at Salisbury in a very great race) and with the same mark of 64 but with the Kenny's 5lb claim I really think he could run for the money with ease. A win will be hard to get but I think at 12/1 this guy is absolutely overpriced, so I'm gonna take a juicy E/W early.

[The Saint]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 17th July 830 Southwell - Jonnie Skull - 4/1 - Hills Largely consistent in this grade. Takes a bit of stoking and lost momentum in the run last time out at Wolves. Handles the surface. Good Luck to all.

[Edberg]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 17th July 2.00 Beverley MISS ELLA JADE 4pts win @ 7/2 bog (Ladbrokes and many more) Lightly raced 3yo filly who had shown little in her first 6 starts but improved a lot in the last few weeks moved to 3yo+ handicaps finishing second and first in the last two outings both over 1m at Pontefract (first on soft ground, second on good ground) off a mark of 51. Her latest winning effort showed she could improve a good deal upped in distance since she won going away and coming with a very strong finish from last to first in the final 2f. Paul Quinn has ridden 2 winners from 3 rides this month and 3 winners and 2 close seconds from 8 rides in the last 4 weeks and is operating at a good 13% strike rate this year (4 winners from 30 rides). Richard Whitaker has had just one winner of late (Miss Ella Jade's last success at Pontefract 15 days ago) but all his 9 runners saddled in the last 3 weeks finished in the money (1 winner, 2 second, 4 thirds and 2 fourths) so the stable isn't in bad form for sure. The opposition isn't the strongest you could find even for such a low level (0-65 class 6 handicap) with Bada Bing and Scarlet Prince the co-market leaders supported after their last decent efforts, both second in quite poor races where they showed nothing special imho. My main concern would be a least exposed type like the Brian Meehan-trained Capitol Gain (Luke Morris on board and first time cheekpieces today) or Gangsterbanksters who wears first-time visor today and represents the very in-form Karl & Elaine Burke's stable (6 winners in the last 10 days, 5 ridden by today's 3lb claimer Michael Metcalfe) but hopefully my selection is in better form at the moment and improving for the step up in distance should be able to follow up her latest win off a 4lb higher mark.

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 17th July 400 Beverley: Mojolika 1pt (10/3 Betfred/VC) A nice 2m handicap at Beverley and i will row in with my system horse again. Mojolika ran very well last time at Pontefract and was a touch unlucky to be caught by Blackstone Vegas after seemingly to have judged the race to perfection. Has a 2lb pull with that horse and this track will suit the selection better and has a C/D win in the form book. He won't want any rain but none is forecast so will take a chance on the weatherman being right for once. Trainer Tim Easterby is in marvellous form and i expect this one to go very close today.

[thewillows]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 17th July surely forster street will need the run today, and put in a strong performance at mkt rasen saturday? time will tell a suppose.

[kroni]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 17th July 4:00 Beverley 10pts e-w Markington @ 15/2 Betvictor Was going to put this up last night but he does need a sound surface and wanted to make sure thats what it will be, missed the 10/1 now though so will have to take 8's, i thinks he has a graet chance here, was 2nd in this race last year and won it the year before, this is his second run for his new stable so they should know what he's like now after a fair reapearance after a break when he was only beaten around 6 lengths over trip too short for him, looks on a very nice mark on old form as he won this off 76 in 2010 and was 2nd to Mojolika last year off 72, down to 68 today and has a massive pull in the weights of 31lb with that rival as he also had 3yo allowance last year. Moon Trip is the 3yo this year with light weight and could be danger but at 9/2 i don't want to find out IF he will stay the trip or not.

[nickf88]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 17th July

surely forster street will need the run today' date=' and put in a strong performance at mkt rasen saturday? time will tell a suppose.[/quote']Looks like you're right there mate no market move at all today for this horse and as you say is entered in a race Saturday, which strangely is a Juvenile hurdle. Be interesting to see what happens today/Saturday though.

[Stevet1859]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 17th July 7:00 Southwell: Run of the Day 1pt win 14/1 Paddy Power If Run of the Day reproduces her last outing here at Southwell she could go close. With the same conditions, the same jockey, and a slightly lower class of race, all looks fine. Its not easy to get off the mark at Southwell at the fisrt time of asking so this lightly raced three year old may have a little more scope to improve again.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 17th July 3:15 Ffos Las - Adeste - Back Very unoriginal one this but there's not much else to be truthful. Ran his best career race so far when a solid 2nd lto. This looks easier and he has proven he handles cut in the ground which is a big plus. Should really win this 1pt win @ 1/5 Paddy Power BOG

[Boulder5111]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 17th July Y5.50 Jawinski 0.5pt E/W 100/1 Bet365 I just missed out on a 66/1 placed horse a few days ago and this one follows a similar logic. It's arguably one of only 2 horses (on breeding) in the field that will really appreciate testing ground (the other being Lamusawama). There's (currently) 8 runners so this looks like taking a risk with in the hope that it takes to the ground and some of the market leaders don't. In addition it's not exactly friendless on the exchanges and some of the high street bookies have even trimmed it this morning. It's such a big price partly due to the unfashionable stable but he's not adverse to putting up claimers when his horses aren't fancied but gives Andrea Atzeni the ride today.

[markmywords]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 17th July 18:00 Southwell Strictly Pink - Won on only visit to Southwell over 6F. Seems to prefer AW with 3 wins 3 seconds and a 3rd from 15. Turf is not so prolific 1 from 17. This will be 1st run over 5F but related to 5F winners. Trainer feels the need to put a 7lb claimer onboard but claimer from 5 runs has had a winner and a 3rd. Trainer 22% rate at track. 0.5 EW 14/1 Whill

[curby235]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 17th July Great shout nickf88!!

[beaker1]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 17th July Sorry for putting this up a bit early but want to take the price incase it drops dramatically tomorrow. 2:00 Beverley - Forster Street - 1pt Win (9/1, Bet365) Usual type that I'm interested in, 3 'terrible' maiden runs (finished 4th on same course last time out which was a good run in reality) then gelded before making it's reappearance over a longer distance on it's handicap debut. Graham Gibbons booked hopefully for a winning job tomorrow and Tim Easterby is in amazing form recently, banging in a 5 timer Saturday so this horse making it's reappearance at this time hopefully is a sign of intent. Hopefully there will be a bit of money for this now to cement it's likelihood of a good run tomorrow. well done,great call

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 17th July

surely forster street will need the run today' date=' and put in a strong performance at mkt rasen saturday? time will tell a suppose.[/quote'] When a horse is entered into several races over a few days, it indicates one of two things. 1) They want to get the horse a run or two to get it's mark down 2) The horse is fancied to win and whatever race it goes into, it should do the biz. A lot of the time it is because the horse is fancied to win. Pity i didn't see that post earlier, cos i would have backed it today. Well done Nick, good shout.

[Lars]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 17th July

When a horse is entered into several races over a few days, it indicates one of two things. 1) They want to get the horse a run or two to get it's mark down 2) The horse is fancied to win and whatever race it goes into, it should do the biz. A lot of the time it is because the horse is fancied to win. Pity i didn't see that post earlier, cos i would have backed it today. Well done Nick, good shout.

3) They're unsure about the ground with the weather as it is and want to leave their options open. Well done Nick :ok

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 17th July PANDORICA 3.45 Ffos Las. 1 point win. Goes in the ground and gets in off the same mark as last time. Last time's effort gives her big claims in this, so no reason why she shouldn't go close. 11/4 Bet365 BOG

[nickf88]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 17th July Thanks guys much appreciated :okBeen on such a dreadful run of form lately as shown in my BBOTD figures, really needed that to go in!

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 17th July Bev 4.00 - Mojolika - win at 5/2 bog bet365 Won this race last year and comes here in good nick after finishing 2nd last time out Stable flying at the moment The second favorite is a Johnston 3yo stepping up in trip which is usually a sign of something worth backing but he's been weakening over 12f Rest look pretty exposed usual suspects

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 17th July Big Sylv 4.45 Ffos Las. 1 point win. The heavy ground shouldn't be of any concerns and the trip's fine. Handicapper drops her 2lb to a mark of 48, & so she should be able to go close to winning this race. Not too much strength in depth, so looks quite solid. 9/2 Betfred (bog)

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 17th July

*Future Security - Yarmouth 8:20* The Godolphin team have been on fire of late and this could be another winner to add to the list. Looking at the form, this horse was 3rd on debut to Thought Worthy, who is a top horse now. It then went on to win it's second run at Redcar, but that form behind Thought Worthy looks very interesting, especially as it was on heavy ground, and tomorrow will be soft aswell. 79 looks a leniant opening mark in handicaps for a horse that could well turn out to be a group horse. 8 of Bin Suroor's last 22 runners have won, he is in great form. Big chance. *1 Point WIN @ 9/4 VC BOG*

Non-Runner BH! *Praxios - Southwell 9:00* I think this outsider may have a live chance. It has run well on the all-weather before at Wolverhampton. Was 2nd of 13 on it's second run, and on it's third run was 3rd of 7. Since then it has run quite poorly, but 3 of those 4 runs were on turf, and now back on the all-weather i feel it could run a big race. It runs off a mark of 57 which is leniant, Gary Bartley takes off 3 pounds too to help the cause. This is Noel Wilson's only runner today, and he has a terrific record at Southwell surprisingly, 20 wins from 198 runners producing a profit of +£64.71 to level stakes, and on the flat that profit is +£83.71. Gary Bartley has a good record too when riding for him. 8 winners from 46 rides producing a profit of +£23.50 to level stakes. The favourite should take a bit of beating, but i am hopeful of a place here. *0.5 Points e/w @ 33/1 Bet365 BOG*

[Lodge]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 17th July 6.50 - Yarmouth - Red Rhythm @ 9/1 BetVictor Lightly raced 5yo who has hinted he is good enough to win at this level. Decent 5th on heavy ground at Chepstow last month, finishing under 2L behind the eventual winner who has just ran well again this evening. Back up to 7f which is probably a plus considering he looked to be staying on and dropped 1lb in the weights. Potential to go well at a decent price.

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 17th July Later runners, or not?

830 Southwell - Jonnie Skull - 4/1 - Hills Largely consistent in this grade. Takes a bit of stoking and lost momentum in the run last time out at Wolves. Handles the surface. Good Luck to all.

Non-Runner BH! *Praxios - Southwell 9:00* I think this outsider may have a live chance. It has run well on the all-weather before at Wolverhampton. Was 2nd of 13 on it's second run, and on it's third run was 3rd of 7. Since then it has run quite poorly, but 3 of those 4 runs were on turf, and now back on the all-weather i feel it could run a big race. It runs off a mark of 57 which is leniant, Gary Bartley takes off 3 pounds too to help the cause. This is Noel Wilson's only runner today, and he has a terrific record at Southwell surprisingly, 20 wins from 198 runners producing a profit of +£64.71 to level stakes, and on the flat that profit is +£83.71. Gary Bartley has a good record too when riding for him. 8 winners from 46 rides producing a profit of +£23.50 to level stakes. The favourite should take a bit of beating, but i am hopeful of a place here. *0.5 Points e/w @ 33/1 Bet365 BOG*

[thewillows]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 17th July I am swallowing my words. To be honest never saw that coming pal. Good arrows mate!

[DC]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 17th July 9.00 Southwell SMART AFFAIR 0.5pts e/w 8-1 Sporting bet A very weak race but bottom of the weights Smart Affair can take it with Luke Morris on board. Won off 46 over C&D back in March this year, then tried over further but failed to make any impression. Back to C&D LTO and finished 2nd 1/2 a length off 48 at 16-1. Carries the same mark again tonight and same jockey rides. Draw a possible negative but factored into the price and seen some horses finish well down the stand side already tonight. Here's hoping the penalty catches the skinny favourite out....