BBOTD Thursday 12th of July

[Aidymac]

:ok

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 12th of July *Red Cadeaux - Newmarket 3:00* Love this horse! Backed it e/w @ 50/1 in Australia where it so so nearly won, was a bad beat, but what a gutsy animal, and you know when you back it you always get a run for your money. It won the Yorkshire Cup and was placed in the Coronation Cup and the Hardwicke, so it is cracking form on the table. It has won over this trip twice and is definately capable of beating all it's rivals here. Ed Dunlop is in good form with 5 of his last 18 runners winning and this horse should be favourite. *1 Point WIN @ 11/4 Hills BOG*

[chris34]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 12th of July

3.25 Warwick Fingers crossed this fixture gets the go ahead, so will keep it brief just incase it doesnt. Barons Spy is a decent sort that knows how to win, won last time out over this course in a weaker race this looks stronger and top weight in desperate ground perhaps too much rather than the 2lb rise in the handicap. Prime Exhibit appeared to struggle to get through the mud at Newcastle recently similar story likely here for all he does look well treated and likes some cut. Perfect Pastime regained winning thread last time out, and although that was on soft ground best form has been on fast ground prior to that and has always struggle off marks in the high 70's low 80's. We Have A Dream has dropped to a tempting mark but has been badly out of sorts recently and not one to trust at the moment. Bella Ophelia needs to bounce back from an awful run last time out and isnt totally ruled out but handicapper perhaps catching up with her! A chance is taken on Mister Musicmaster, who showed a glimmer of hope when 4th at Windsor 3 starts back when staying on well, not quite so good next time out back over 6f and completely forget last time out when involved in a false start and probably went the furthest of all the runners. He has now dropped to his last winning mark and creeps into this handicap off bottom weight which may be key in this bottomless ground with the yard in reasonable form. 0.5pt e/w Mister Musicmaster 11/1

>PP

[Stevet1859]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 12th of July 1:20 Newmarket: Rewarded 1pt win 9/2 Ladbrokes Rewarded brings some decent Group form from Royal Ascot to the table and he could well improve again. By Motivator the extra three furlongs should suit and the going won't be a problem. The form at the Royal meeting usually holds up and Rewarded looks a little value in this small field.

[jinxy]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 12th of July Sorry billy did the trends on the wrong race. Try again 8/10 winners had run 1 - 3 times Out goes Joshua tree and red cadeaux 10/10 ran in last 50 days. Out go Harris tweed, modun, sea of heartbreak 9/10 ran in gr race LTO. Out goes Dandino 9/10 won a gr race. Out goes fiorente 9/10 won over 1m4f+. Previous winning course form is a plus if they have ran at Newmarket. Quest for peace was 2nd at Newmarket and jackal berry has never raced here. Jakkalberry 1pt win 13/2 stan James. 3.00 Newmarket

[robertob]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 12th of July 15.00 Newmarket: Harris Tweed @ 11/4 Bet365 Harris Tweed has been running very well this season. He landed a Group 3 at Newbury in April, the form looks not very strong considering how baldy the rest of the field performed since, though he couldn't have won it in more impressive fashion as he made all as always and won it by 5 lengths. He then finished 3rd the Yorkshire Cup, when he just couldn't match the challenge of strong stayer Red Cadeaux in the closing stages, yet it was a very decent performance again and he wasn't far beaten. He steps down to 12f again for this race tomorrow as the York race came over 14f. I think 1m 4f is his best distance and the soft going will be very much in his favour tomorrow as well. It looks unlikely that he faces a challenge for the early lead and so he might be well able to dictate the pace from the front as he likes to do which can be a tactical advantage. Favourite Red Cadeaux is a fantastic horse but I feel he's better over further, despite his good record over 12f, and he faces Harris Tweed on 3lb worse terms this time. So this looks certainly an ideal opportunity for Harris Tweed to win a Group 2.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 12th of July Newmarket 225 - Silver Blaze 16/1 EW William Hill In a competitive race, I think this horse has great chance of being right up there at the finish. He ran a really good & reliable looking TS LTO when finishing 2nd to Valiant (who runs earlier on the card). Conditions look to be right up his street and while there are a few dangers (namely Razorbill who I really like the lookof should the ground stay good enough), I am expecting a good run for my money.

[gman1]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 12th of July 440 newmarket a 5 furlong sprint to finish things off and with the weather the way it is the 20 strong field may be significantly reduced to the point the places could fall to 3 paid out. with that in mind a less speculative choice should be taken. SHOWBOATING has 3pound pull with Le Toreador and a furlong less so should reverse recent placings and with the assistance of Frankie in the saddle and a stiff test of conditions should be in teh firing line. 9/1 WIN BET365

[Edberg]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 12th of July 4.40 Newmarket PEARL BLUE win @ 14/1 bog (Paddy Power and Ladbrokes) Lightly raced 4yo sprinter trained by Chris Wall who won 3 of her first 9 starts before disappointing on her last two outings. After a couple of poor efforts in maidens as a 2yo and a decent 3rd on her 3yo debut (still in maiden) Pearl Blue's first success came one year ago on her handicap debut at Windsor over 6f on good to soft where the filly bolted up racing off a mark of 58 and dropped in distance over the shortest trip on soft ground she won again by 7L in a handicap at Sandown last August racing off a mark of 69. 5th of 11 on her last start as a 3yo facing for the first time older horses in September over 6f at Chester off her new mark of 83 the Exceed And Excel's filly came back in action after a long winter break on the 16th of April and finished 5th of 14 over 5f at Windsor on good ground (beaten 3L) racing in a handicap off 82. Her third and so far last success came next time out at Doncaster over 5f on heavy ground 11 days after that comeback run racing off the same mark (82) teamed up with George Baker (back on board today). That race at Doncaster was a very strong one for the category (a class 4 handicap) and Pearl Blue beat pretty easily (strong finish in the last 50 yards) in second another soft ground-sprint specialist in West Coast Dream and the Roy Brotherton-trained gelding bolted up two days ago off a 1lb lower mark once he finally faced again testing ground (5f, soft ground at Windsor) while the third of that race (1.25L behind Pearl Blue) was Bedloe's Island who finished 6th of 16 in a high quality class 2 handicap won by Judge 'n Jury at York on his next start racing off a 6lb higher mark and bolted up back to his previous mark on his following start in a class 3 handicap at Redcar (upped 8lb after that win). The best name out the race is surely the one who finished 4th that day at Doncaster which was Head Space who has won twice since and was an unlucky third last time out (2 days ago). The Ruth Carr-trained 4yo gelding is one of the most highly progressive sprinters in UK at the moment imho and after his last impressive success at Ayr off a 3lb higher mark than when 4th, beaten 2.5L by Pearl Blue, at Doncaster as written above he would have very probably won again off a mark 91, another 9lb higher, last time out at Ayr (5f, soft) but for a big stumble when getting ahead close home (race won by Mayoman over Haajes). The fifth of that race was Bouncy Bouncy, who had won her previous start and finished twice second, once third and once fourth off 3-4lb higher marks on her following/last starts. The sixth of that race Noodles Blue Boy won next time a 17-runner handicap off a 2lb lower mark and finished 2nd, 4th and 2nd on his last three starts off his new mark (3lb higher than when beaten 4L by Pearl Blue at Doncaster). 7th was Sleepy Blue Ocean, out of form so far this year but able to win 6 times in his previous two seasons, 8th Haajes who's gone very close twice since (both times second), 9th Mayoman who had won his previous start and has won twice since (latest success off a 4lb higher mark two days ago beating Haajes by a head in a class 3 handicap over 5f at Ayr on soft ground already mentioned for Head Space), 10th Go Go Green who had won his previous start and won his next start too, 12th Rafaaf who had won his previous start and has gone close since and even the 13th Rocket Rob has won since and the 14th and last of that race The Nifty Fox has won his last two races (bolted up at Ayr on soft ground over 6f two days ago off a 4lb lower mark). This was a very long list but I wanted to underline how strong was that race, absolutely unusual for the category, and Pearl Blue's record over 5f is still the one of a progressive horse especially with cut in the ground (unbeaten in two starts on soft/heavy and 2 wins in 3 starts over 5f) so racing off a 2lb lower mark compared to her last two races, both over 6f on good/good to soft ground where she weakened in the last furlong, which means just 2lb higher than her last winning mark in that strong race at Doncaster, Pearl Blue has got a very good chance in this race with a good draw in stall nr.1, which should give her a good opportunity to sit just behind the pace (her jockey is usually a master to get his raiders with a strong finish from behind), a very good jockey on board in George Baker who knows her very well (rode her last time out, surely on some morning works and on her last win at Doncaster) and Baker has got a very profitable relationship with trainer Chris Wall over the years with both the jockey and the trainer showing a very good record (among their best ones) over this track (Newmarket July course) where the jockey, 2 winners and 7 seconds in the last 12 days, has collected 10 winners from 55 rides with 3yo+ runners over the last 5 years for a level stake profit of +60.38 while the trainer, who had a winner last week, is 9-47 with 3yo+ runners over the last 5 seasons here at Newmarket on the July course, with a +26.58 level stake profit. Le Toreador narrowly held Showboating over C&D last time out (13 days ago) and the two are among the main dangers here but there are plenty of runners with a decent chance as usual in this big field sprint handicaps even if many of them wouldn't want the ground to deteriorate too much (expected soft at the moment).

[smith17]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 12th of July 15.00 Newmarket: Dandino, 10/1 Boylesports, 1pt win Dandino finished second lto when he was beaten by ½l by Polygon. Before that he was narrowly beaten by the top class Sea Moon, who has since beaten a number of today's rivals comfortably. He has won on soft ground and run well on good to soft so today's ground should suit. Trainer James Fanshawe is having a good season as is jockey Richard Hughes. Hughes also has a very good record on the July Course at Newmarket.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 12th of July 4.40 Newmarket - 1pt win Jedward @ 14/1 (Ladbrokes) Don't usually like piling into these races but I'm really quite sweet on the chances of Richard Fahey's runner as I think she wants a stiff 5f with cut in the ground, but hasn't really had the chance to compete under these circumstances recently. She's a mare who relishes some give underfoot and her only win came over 5f on just her second start. That doesn't really tell the story as she's a rock solid handicapper at a good level and has run several good races since. She's only run one bad race since joining Fahey and that came over 7f at Chester which can safely be disregarded - especially as she bounced back afterwards. She put in a strong challenge over 6f at York next time out but just couldn't quicken at the death which suggests to me 5f is what she needs. The winner that day has won his next two races as well so there's plenty of substance there. Last time out, Jedward went back to Chester over 5f on quicker ground and it was probably just a little bit too sharp for her. She was under pressure early on and could only keep on into midfield. The return to a more galloping track will suit her and this test should be spot on. She's likely to be competitive off such a mark yet again and I think she's going to go very well indeed.

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 12th of July 1.20 Newmarket yazdi 1pt win @ 9/1 coral This horse confirmed his debut promise by bolting up by 7lengths on his next start at thirsk. He was sent off 2nd favourite for a group 3 contest at royal ascot over 2m but appeared to not get the trip. The drop back to 1m5f here should be ideal and I would expect a much better performance from him today. Ground won't be a problem and he looks too big at 9/1.

[corky]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 12th of July 1350 newmarket 1pt wim sir pranacelot 5/2 bet365 won its first 2 races before finishing 4th in the coventry stakes last time out, same trip today,and the only doubt is the soft ground which has been forecast,but small field should help ,no traffic problems and the finishing speed it showed in 1st two races may be seen today

[BARNSLEYCHOP]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 12th of July 7.20 EPSOM BATTLEOFTRAPHALGAR @ 9/1 BETVICTOR (BOG) .5ew This front runner could dominate from the 3 box tonight, was 3rd off 72 on his last flat turf run and the mark of 69 tonight should give him a chance. No problems regarding the ground and with a couple of the lesser exposed horse at the top of the hcap being taken out this looks a much easier race. An all the way win at around 9/1.

[jayalexander]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 12th of July 2:05 Doncaster - Terenzium Ran in an apprentice race this time last year at Ayr, coming second, which may indicate that the 10yo is in peak condition around July. The female jockey won on a 40/1 for the trainer recently, who's in tip top form with three wins and four places in 13 over the past 14 days. This is his only runner of the day and there isn't another trainer with a representative here who can start to boast such positivity. 7/1 betvictor (BOG) - win

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 12th of July 2:40 Doncaster - A Certain Romance - Back There are a couple of newcomers in this who come from good yards but they may well have to go some to beat A Certain Romance. He ran a belter when 2nd and looked a future winner waiting to happen. He's been found a good opportunity to gain immediate compensation here 1pt win @ 4/6 Paddy Power BOG

[The Saint]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 12th of July 345 Doncaster - Ariyfa - 9/2 - VC Going round and round in circles today and have got a headache!! If all the weather reports are accurate then Doncaster should be drying out and hopefully race good/soft come off time. Consistent form figures 222122 with SDS booked, I don't conside the selection the most likely winner of the race but the fav is maybe priced up on what she might achieve given that she has been raised 8lbs...

[santos_]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 12th of July Newmarket 3.00 - Harris Tweed 1pts win 2/1 Bet365 A horse who always gives his all in his bold front running style. He didn't quite match his season return lto at York but he's the sort of horse who can easily bounce back you feel. If he gets on a softish lead he will be hard to peg back.

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 12th of July 225 NM: Samba King EW (28/1 Bet365) Backed this one earlier in the season when Barzalona gave it an awful ride, hasn't been ridden that well since to be honest. Form is better than it looks in the book and looks decent value to me on ground he will appreciate, Ajtebi takes over today and hopefully will be able to show his best.

[chris34]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 12th of July First a non runner so gotta settle for one where the price has been smashed this morning!

5.25 Doncaster This looks a really weak handicap on the face of it lacking much depth what so ever. Red Trump looks a risky favourite in my opinion, raced solely on the AW to date winning weak looking maiden last time out which really has worked out, of course open to improvement but has to prove in same form after break now trying turf for the first time and on desperate ground aswell so couldnt touch him at 10/3! Dr Red Eye couldnt have been more impressive last time out bolting clear in soft conditions at Catterick under De Sousa who rides again, a more possitive ride on 7f appears to be the key to him as he clearly lacks a change of gear but has the stamina to see this out in these conditions and if in the same mood a 6lb penalty wont be enough if the cheekpieces have the same effect today. The other that might be interesting in a weak race is Anton Chigurh who caught the eye last time out at Yarmouth making some ground up late on, that was only his 5th start and had previously shown better form on handicap debut on soft ground at Ponte over 6f staying on looking in need of further. So the soft ground and 7f may provide him with some improvement and cant be ruled out completely. 1pt win Dr Red Eye 2/1

>Bet365

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 12th of July Black Douglas 3.15 Doncaster. 0.5 points each way. Needs to improve quite a bit from debut effort, but wasn't suited by conditions then and should be much more at home on this type of ground today. Apparently thought of as making up into a quite useful horse, so if that's the case then a race like this should be within his grasp. Big price. 20/1 Bet365 (bog)

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 12th of July DISCOVERY BAY 3.30 Dundalk. 1 point win. Runs well here and so that's always a bonus, and with the handicapper giving him chances off a mark of 79, he does look sure to run a decent race. The pace of the race should suit also, so should go close. 11/2 Victor Chandler BOG

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 12th of July

225 NM: Samba King EW (28/1 Bet365) Backed this one earlier in the season when Barzalona gave it an awful ride, hasn't been ridden that well since to be honest. Form is better than it looks in the book and looks decent value to me on ground he will appreciate, Ajtebi takes over today and hopefully will be able to show his best.

I won a £50 free bet on Hills Poker last night, and was hoping it was credited in time for an e/w bet on this, for obvious reasons!! It wasn't :wall Nice place :ok And nice winner from BFR too :clap

[Boulder5111]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 12th of July D5.25 Two Sugars 0.5pt E/W 66/1 Stan James This is probably crazy but at the price, I'll have to have a few pence on. It's the breeding that is of interest for this handicap debutante - it's by Val Royal whose progeny show a good level stakes profit and a liking for soft ground. It's also drawn 1 so any strong bias towards either side might be in its favour and whilst I'm not a fan of Adrian Nicholls, it looks like an interesting jockey booking.

[Boulder5111]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 12th of July

D5.25 Two Sugars 0.5pt E/W 66/1 Stan James This is probably crazy but at the price, I'll have to have a few pence on. It's the breeding that is of interest for this handicap debutante - it's by Val Royal whose progeny show a good level stakes profit and a liking for soft ground. It's also drawn 1 so any strong bias towards either side might be in its favour and whilst I'm not a fan of Adrian Nicholls, it looks like an interesting jockey booking.

Came 4th and touched Evens for the place :( One to look out for new time perhaps (especially with a different jockey !) :lol

[switzerland]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 12th of July 8.25 Leopardstown - Beach of Falesa - 1pt Win 1/1 PP Missed the early prices but Beach of Falesa ran really well at Roscommon on Monday night and should take all the beating here. He looked all over the winner on that occasion, only to be beaten on the line by the heavily backed Willie Mullins horse. Lots of the opposition look very exposed. Citizenship has disappointed on his last few runs and Redera looks pretty exposed. Beach of Falesa handles soft and stays the trip. If Monday hasn't taken too much out of him then I'll take this 3year old son of Dylan Thomas to get the better of his elders.

[markmywords]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 12th of July 19:55 Epsom Jane Lachatte - Course winner under heavy going. Hadn't shown much since until a 3rd LTO. It was a much improved performance where ran over far side in run in. All the action though was stands side. Wanting a better run in this time and is rated a 1lb lighter. 1pt win ladbrokes 100/30

[Lodge]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 12th of July 19.55 - Epsom - Jane Lachatte @ 4/1 Skybet Ground looks pretty soft at Epsom this evening and this should cause no problem for Jane Lachatte. She won here in April over 9f when the going was heavy and despite not running quite as well since i feel she is probably still reasonably handicapped only 5lbs higher than her only success to date. She did run a reasonable race lto when placed at Doncaster over this trip and with the ground a big question mark for many in this race i think she is the one to side with.

[dili123in]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 12th of July

4.40 Newmarket - 1pt win Jedward @ 14/1 (Ladbrokes) Don't usually like piling into these races but I'm really quite sweet on the chances of Richard Fahey's runner as I think she wants a stiff 5f with cut in the ground, but hasn't really had the chance to compete under these circumstances recently. She's a mare who relishes some give underfoot and her only win came over 5f on just her second start. That doesn't really tell the story as she's a rock solid handicapper at a good level and has run several good races since. She's only run one bad race since joining Fahey and that came over 7f at Chester which can safely be disregarded - especially as she bounced back afterwards. She put in a strong challenge over 6f at York next time out but just couldn't quicken at the death which suggests to me 5f is what she needs. The winner that day has won his next two races as well so there's plenty of substance there. Last time out, Jedward went back to Chester over 5f on quicker ground and it was probably just a little bit too sharp for her. She was under pressure early on and could only keep on into midfield. The return to a more galloping track will suit her and this test should be spot on. She's likely to be competitive off such a mark yet again and I think she's going to go very well indeed.

excellent tipping.ty

[DC]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 12th of July 9.00 Epsom HOPES AND DREAMS win 7/2 paddy power (BOG) One of the only runners in the field to win on soft, has won over the trip twice and although off a high mark the claimer takes off 7lb tonight which means technically only 1lb higher than last victory. Cocohatchee is up 4lbs for only finishing 2nd by 2 lengths last time but is proven on the ground. Mambo Spirit has never won on this going. If you ignore the last run at the Curragh the selection has won 3 out of 4 races so is clearly in good form and at 4yrs of age is entitled to improve. Only slight negative is she's top weight on soft ground.