Germany v Greece > June 22

[Sir Puntalot]

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[TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Germany v Greece (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.36[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]11.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.55 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Mustafa]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22 It's obvious that Germany won't have much trouble qualifying to the semi-final, but @ 1.33 there is no value in my opinion. So, I will focus on goals market. Germany tend to score most of their goals in the first half, especially before the 30th minute. In their last 2 games they scored on 24th minute against Holland and on 19th against Denmark. I don't think that Greek defense is stronger than Holland and Denmark, and moreover I expect them to defend for the most part of the game trying to score from set-piece or counter attack. If Germany play the way they did in their previous games I can see them scoring a goal in the first 30 minutes without much trouble. Germany Goal: up to and including 30th minute @ 2.05 William Hill

[deadrave]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22 how on earth greek defence is not stronger than hollands? or even denmarks? hollands defence is the worst in the entire tournament while denmark has only agger 2 shots on target from russia during the whole 90 minutes of game is the only think i need to mention you to understand that you dont have a clue about greece's defence do some research

[Mustafa]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22

2 shots on target from russia during the whole 90 minutes of game is the only think i need to mention you to understand that you dont have a clue about greece's defence do some research

If Russia had only 2 shots on target is because they were really poor, not because Greece were strong.

[Fedar]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22

It's obvious that Germany won't have much trouble qualifying to the semi-final, but @ 1.33 there is no value in my opinion. So, I will focus on goals market. Germany tend to score most of their goals in the first half, especially before the 30th minute. In their last 2 games they scored on 24th minute against Holland and on 19th against Denmark. I don't think that Greek defense is stronger than Holland and Denmark, and moreover I expect them to defend for the most part of the game trying to score from set-piece or counter attack. If Germany play the way they did in their previous games I can see them scoring a goal in the first 30 minutes without much trouble. Germany Goal: up to and including 30th minute @ 2.05 William Hill

Good pick, Mustafa. I'd like to add that besides the last two games, Germany do love to score early in elimination phases. As far as I remember (I will check the exact figures later and get back with more precise info), they scored before the 30th minute in every elimination game in South Africa, except for semi-finals (vs. Spain). Two early goals vs. England and Argentina, and one against Uruguay. Moreover, in 2008, they also scored early goals against Portugal (1/4 final) and Turkey (1/2 final), and only missed to do it against Spain. In Mondial 06, they could not score early against Italy and Argentina, but those are two of the toughest teams. However, against a relatively milder side - Sweden at 1/8 final, Germany scored whole 2 goals within about 20 minutes. They scored early also against Portugal in the "small" final. It is worth noting that for all those tournaments, Lowe was in charge (either head coach, or assistant). So, Germany has the habit to start quickly and I see no reason why they won't do it against the Greeks at this price.

[Jase82]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22 I agree with Mustafa here..... Greece were dire defensively in the first half, and overall this tournament they've been a shadow of their 2004 self IMO. The main reason they've qualified is because their group was wide open and lacking in any real quality. 1.36 on the Germans seems a bit of a gift to me.

[notoriouspunter]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22 Question is how karagounis missing influences Greece? I guess Makos will play for him in a more defensive position. Heis their leader on the pitch since 10 years so I think it must have some negative impact on the team despite the trainer saying the substitute will solve the same tasks. I fancy Germany to qualify. The odds are short but they have much more young firepower to substitute in a extra time. The straight win is to low for the risk of a draw. Instead I might choose lower stake but higher hc odds. Greece didnt play much world class opposition in the last 2 years. They have impressing stats in conceeding not much goals and almost never lost. Tough, once it gets vs. opposition that has some quality upfront they concede. They will fight. Germany will fight too and has the option to subtitute top international class players. Im preparing for big bets on germany that I might cover with 0:1 1:1 bets as I cant see any other positive result for greece.

[Alexc]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22 Gotta say, I think it's a little ridiculous how easily people are writing Greece off. To outplay Poland with ten men and beat Russia deserves respect. I don't actually think Germany are that strong at the moment. They've won three games but the one time they've played a side with a bit of organisation, the Portuguese, they've struggled. I think it could be interesting, though not that it matters anyway, seeing as England are obviously gonna win the thing now.

[BookiesBane]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22 Scorecast: Germany 3-3 Greece @101.00 - William Hill. 2 units. You might think this is a bit ridiculous, but I really think we could have an absolute classic on our hands on Friday. Both teams definitely have goals in them, and both are weak defenisvely too. Gekas, Samaras & Salpingidis have each impressed so far in this tournament and I really wouldn't be surprised if each of them were too notch against the shaky German back four. On the other hand, Germany always provide a potent threat going forward, a Gomez hattrick really wouldn't surprise me, nor would a Greece OG. I strongly believe there's value in this at 100/1, always get one ridiculous scoreline in a tournament and this could be it. Good luck to those who follow me! Hope to make my stay at the Punters Lounge a long & successful one!

[Sloppy]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22 BookiesBane if you really expect Greece to score 3 against Germany, when Russia had 61% possession, and Germany are a MUCH stronger side, who are most likely going to have close to 70%, you really are making a bad decision. I don't think there is a chance in hell that Greece will score 3, 1 against Russia, 1 against Czech Republic and 1 against Poland. I really have no way of seeing Greece scoring more than 1 lucky goal here, and to be fair that is a long shot. Good luck though, you are going to need a miracle. I'm going to bet a double on Portugal and Germany to win at odds of 2.38 with Ladbrokes. May do some future bets on goal markets but haven't decided yet.

[Rob the I ty]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22 Germany at about 1.33 sounds about right. They've beaten three teams superior to Greece already. I will say this about Greece they've defended quite well since the first half against Poland outside of the first 5 mins of the Czech match. They were missing both center halves in the Czech match and they conceded two quick goals. They haven't conceded since.

[arxidi]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22

It's obvious that Germany won't have much trouble qualifying to the semi-final, but @ 1.33 there is no value in my opinion. So, I will focus on goals market. Germany tend to score most of their goals in the first half, especially before the 30th minute. In their last 2 games they scored on 24th minute against Holland and on 19th against Denmark. I don't think that Greek defense is stronger than Holland and Denmark, and moreover I expect them to defend for the most part of the game trying to score from set-piece or counter attack. If Germany play the way they did in their previous games I can see them scoring a goal in the first 30 minutes without much trouble. Germany Goal: up to and including 30th minute @ 2.05 William Hill

HAHAHAHA mustafa you really know nothing. it's fair to say Holland had the worst defence out of the 3 teams, and Greece is not known for their attacking abilities but there defending..... They kept Russia to only 2 shots on target and you say "Russia aren't that good of an opposition thats why".... Russia outclased the Czechs and even Poland, they were outside threats to this competition and a lot of people expected them to do well, but they didn't because the Greek defence held them. You really need to get your facts right. Now Germany I believe should easily be able to beat Greece. It wont be a walk in the park if Greece play how they did against Russia but the Germany defence is too organized so I can't see Greece scoring too many. But yeah.. have you watched any games Mustafa????

[Mustafa]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22

HAHAHAHA mustafa you really know nothing. it's fair to say Holland had the worst defence out of the 3 teams, and Greece is not known for their attacking abilities but there defending..... They kept Russia to only 2 shots on target and you say "Russia aren't that good of an opposition thats why".... Russia outclased the Czechs and even Poland, they were outside threats to this competition and a lot of people expected them to do well, but they didn't because the Greek defence held them. You really need to get your facts right. Now Germany I believe should easily be able to beat Greece. It wont be a walk in the park if Greece play how they did against Russia but the Germany defence is too organized so I can't see Greece scoring too many. But yeah.. have you watched any games Mustafa????

As I said earlier, Russia had only 2 shots on goal because they thought this will be an easy game, it happens with them all the time. How can you call Greece defence good if they conceded 2 goals in the first 14 minutes against Cezch Rep. I watched all the games and don't post the same reply 3 times, it won't make it more convincing :)

[Jase82]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22

HAHAHAHA mustafa you really know nothing. it's fair to say Holland had the worst defence out of the 3 teams' date=' and Greece is not known for their attacking abilities but there defending..... They kept Russia to only 2 shots on target and you say "Russia aren't that good of an opposition thats why".... Russia outclased the Czechs and even Poland, they were outside threats to this competition and a lot of people expected them to do well, [b']but they didn't because the Greek defence held them. You really need to get your facts right. Now Germany I believe should easily be able to beat Greece. It wont be a walk in the park if Greece play how they did against Russia but the Germany defence is too organized so I can't see Greece scoring too many. But yeah.. have you watched any games Mustafa????

Could you please tone it down a notch or two :ok Everyone's entitled to an opinion, and there are always more than one viewpoint. Regarding the highlighted bit.... my own personal view is that it was more a case of Russia being poor offensively.... the commentators at HT even said they couldn't see Greece holding Russia out in the second half because they weren't defending well and looked like conceding each time Russia got forward.

[arxidi]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22 Yes sorry for posting it 3 times I pressed submit to many times by accident, my mistake. Anyway sorry if I may have gotten too angry mustafa and I know your entitled to your own opinion but I just think Greece is worth some credit and shouldn't be considered as one of the poorer teams in the comp, like many people have stated. Anyway sorry again for getting quite angry but we both have our own opinions

[Mustafa]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22

Yes sorry for posting it 3 times I pressed submit to many times by accident' date=' my mistake. Anyway sorry if I may have gotten too angry mustafa and I know your entitled to your own opinion but I just think Greece is worth some credit and shouldn't be considered as one of the poorer teams in the comp, like many people have stated. Anyway sorry again for getting quite angry but we both have our own opinions[/quote'] No worries :) Back to the point. Since germany were in the same qualifying group with us for this tournament I followed their games and most of the time they scored early goals; and they did so in this tournament already. So, I believe it is very likely that they will score in the first 30 minutes.

[Fedar]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22 Greeks are not bad, but they are at most an average team. No disrespect to anyone, but they qualified from the Mickey Mouse group of this tournament, and they did it with enough luck. Their defense is okay, but it is nothing special. Whenever they had been put under serious pressure, they looked chaotic and vulnerable, with the exception of the second half vs. Russia, but with the important note that it was mainly due to Russians' weakness when they must nick a goal against a very dense defense (and whoever follows Russia and have watched some of their qualifiers and friendlies, and in particular, the home qualifier vs. Eire and the friendly vs. Lithuania, knows what I'm talking about). It is worth noting that all of the Greek goals in this tournament came after severe defensive mistakes - Szceszny and Cech missing easy balls, and the Russian defender doing a big blunder. I don't think it will happen once again. Otherwise, Greeks were sympathetic offensively for two halves in the group games - 2nd half vs. Poland and 2nt against Russia. Other than these, they did not pose any threat. I always notice that for big surprise to take place (and Greece qualifying would be considered such), the underdogs must have a very good goal-keeper. I don't think that Greece has a remarkable goalie or something. Finally, Euro 2004 was a miracle that happens once in life-time. Now everybody knows the trick of the Greeks (well, maybe except for Russia) - defend, defend, and try to nick a winner from set-piece or a defensive mistake. I see a comfortable victory with class for the Germans and 2:0 seems like the most likely scoreline.

[icecreamdreams]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22 im with the camp that believes Greece aint actually that good. yes they can defend well but only cos they dont attack well so just spend most the game worrying about conceding. their goals have all been after defensive f#ck ups by the opposition and germany just shouldnt have any of these. their players are solid and dependable like all good germans! karagounis missing is a major loss to greece. probably the biggest los they could experience. he is their only decent intelligent player who can pick a pass or do a short sharp dribble to open things up...therefore germany will control possession and open them up when they fancy it. every one of germany's players is superior to what the greek players plays against week in week out and this will eventually tell with a few goals i feel. but done well with win to nil few times this fortnight and feel this is another one of them games, its 5/6. also clean sheet for germany seems a good bet, its 8/13. gomez to score at 8/11 aswell as hes getting nice form going

[MPLouis]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22 Off the top of my head ... Germany are clearly easily the better team and 'on paper' should win by a few goals. They have been impressive so far, but did look a little too relaxed/arrogant/complacent against Denmark in a game they could have lost which would have seen them eliminated (Denmark probably should have had a penalty). Germany excel at keeping possession. Greece have out-performed admirably. The win against Russia was a triumph of will and teamwork over skill. Whenever Greece score, it's as if their players grow to double their size and they become supermen. If Greece do score against Germany, they could do well. But if Germany score first, they will probably win comfortably. On balance, I see Germany winning by 2 or 3 goals. It's hard to find much value on that sort of result. No bet for me.

[notoriouspunter]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22 Germany is prepared. They analyze every opponent and check for weaknesses. Its known how Greece operates. Defend and hope to get a goal to defend that even more. Germany has too mucht alent for the greeks. Not only in starting eleven but also on the bench. The substitutes are hot. They want to play and they are all able to score. Greeks already losing Avraam papadopulus also miss holebas and Karagounis their most important player. They dont have much coming from the bench..Ninis maybe. Against teams like France and Russia I would fear them more as these teams underestimate other teams. But the germans dont do that. They have a game plan. They know the opponent and they are out to win it. Every one is warned playing greece not like 04 when they came from nowhere. + They are happy to play in Gdansk near their camp which means less travel stress then before to ukraine. Germany performs most the times better when the tournament goes along. Some players didnt hit top form yet but you can see that they are not far from it. German midfield will dominate the greece midfield. Greece dont have players with karagounis missing who play the ball well in midfield and hold it to retain possesion. Germany willtry to move the greek defense out of position to come over the weak flanks. Greeks have hard palyers in their squad and the pressure will push them for more cards then the germans Conclusion- Germany probably stronger then in the group phase and greeks with a depleted squad can only hope for a second miracle.. My bets: More cards? Greece 10/10 Germany to qualify 10/10 Germany to win 6/10 Germany hc-1 4/10 Germany hc-2 2/10 draw/greece + cs 1:1 to cover some % of main bets.

[AMansWorld]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22 It's just not that easy as it looks like. Agree, Germans are looking really good this year and playing well, team ready to win a championship. But c'mon, it's Greece! No one expected that in 2004, i see no one got a lesson. Even if all squad is new, you just cannot give the Germans win before the match, there is so many ways match can turn out. And i'm sure Germans don't want to risk in elimination rounds opening theyr defense to atack all match. It's should be low scoring match, Greece team will try to go for penalties in this match propably. I think best value of this match is under goals. Good luck who would bet! Germany - Greece (under 2.5) @2.00 Ladbrokes

[notoriouspunter]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22

It's just not that easy as it looks like. Agree, Germans are looking really good this year and playing well, team ready to win a championship. But c'mon, it's Greece! No one expected that in 2004, i see no one got a lesson. Even if all squad is new, you just cannot give the Germans win before the match, there is so many ways match can turn out. And i'm sure Germans don't want to risk in elimination rounds opening theyr defense to atack all match. It's should be low scoring match, Greece team will try to go for penalties in this match propably. I think best value of this match is under goals. Good luck who would bet! Germany - Greece (under 2.5) @2.00 Ladbrokes

Hey this is a scenario that might happen but germans do know what greece is capable of. Trainer was german Rehagel (rehakles) in 04. It was so crazy how they changed their tactic in each game to counter the opponent and how they beleived in winning. But its different times. 8 years later. New coach isnt that tactican. Dont measure greece performance on russia game or `04. Russia is a disaster mentally- one day world beaters other day nothing at all. Greece back then had the perfect team and opponents to do it. I thought 2 days about it and I think germany can win greece tomorrow with great possibility. Players will be sharper and even more direct. I think germany has much more to reveal and in backhand then euro saw till now. Loew said he expects that Oezil will shine in the K.O phase. Well, is it to push Oezil? Or is he sure of it? Thing is Oezil was already great besides producing much goals. Oezil is a very intelligent player and german national team knows how to use their weapons. The left and right wing Podolski and Müller are not in 110% form till now and the runs dont work like Oezil would want them. Expecting every minute Reus and Götze to susbtitute in and explode. Germans always want to leave Group phase and peak in K.O phase and look how effective they played vs. opponents till now. In the K.O they will attack and punish opponents weaknesses. Greece might fight 100% but germans will so too. The offensive combinations are too much that Germany has in the sleeves compared to that odds. Under 2,5 3,5 can easily fall in this game. If greeks substitute offensive earlier then expected(maybe 70 minutes) then their game goes off balance and more goals are about to come. Would it be a surprise germany leading 2:0 at ht? Dont think so. Tough, I wouldnt choose the over either as the german hc's pay much better. ------------ Greek odds are only a product of their 04 triumph and the glimpse they showed vs. weak russia team in the person of Karagounis who wont play(undeserved) vs. germany. Tired greeks might even get one yellow to many ? Time for Katsouranis to step up? Gekas to nick one in? Will greeks have enough space going forward producing enough chances or can they again convert 80%(?) of their chances, this time vs german defence and goalkeeper? ?:D

[Todorov]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22 Well lot of the key points were covered already in the posts above but still a few words from me. One of the most important things for me is the games the Greeks have already player and the conclusions from those games. Now of the 3 goals of the team came from opponent's mistake - two from GK's mistake and from Zhirkov. I do not believe that Greece will be that lucky again - not especially against Germany. Neuer and Hummels represent way more stability that the other teams Greece has faced in group A. I really rate them very high and expect the regular stability by them in the back. In that sense - I do not think that Greece will have to count on fortune and usually they have like 4-5 at most good attacks - this time they should have even less especially with Karagounis out. He is contribution to the team is really great - he has enormous experience and vision for the Greek's game and he is too essential part of their machine. I expect that the team will miss him organizing the game in the midfield a lot. Another thing is that Greece up to now haven't player against such strong offence - Russia had a lot of weak moments against them (likewise their game against Poland) as Russians were unable to show productivity in too many cases. Same goes for Poland - they were just too ineffective to score. And regarding Czech - I just don't rate their attacking power that great. So yes, Greece we good in defending as always but I sometimes think it is not their defense that was so great rather than the opponent's offense playing more or less weak. As everyone I expect the Greek's to mostly defend, keep spaces closed and rarely to look forward - possibly waiting 90 minutes for one or two chances. I guess they will be hoping for extra time and penalties where their chances are standing a bit greater. Anyway the main point is that if Germany finds a good way into Greece defense they should win this - and believe they will manage to do so better than the previous team Greece played against. I also think that the Manschaft will raise their game one more level for this stage of the tournament as lads have already mentioned before me. And finally - I hope that they won't underestimate the opposite side here. Having all that in mind I believe Germany deserves some confidence here though the odds are far from great. Still Germany -1.5 @ 2.00 Bet365 medium stakes Germany to win to nill @ 1.83 Bet365 medium stakes GL!

[arxidi]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22 I haven't had time to look at odds yet but I think a smart bet would be for Germany to not conceed, or Germany to win by 2+ goals? Some people say the Germans will win by 4+ but I don't think they would want to, they seem to have paced themselves at a good pace and will continue to win by 1-2 goals untill the semis and finals come and that's when they'll go the next level. I'll try post the odds and bookmarkers later but I'm liking Germany to win by 2+ or Germany to keep a clean sheet.

[Aidymac]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22

No worries :) Back to the point. Since germany were in the same qualifying group with us for this tournament I followed their games and most of the time they scored early goals; and they did so in this tournament already. So, I believe it is very likely that they will score in the first 30 minutes.

When a goal is scored in a game is pot luck in my opinion. It is pure guesswork, i don't think you can say Germany are very likely to score in the first 30 minutes... They are just as likely to score between 30-45 mins? It could easily be 0-0 at half time, it could be 1-0 to Greece at half-time. Just because they scored early in a couple of previous games, does not relate to the following match, as every match is different.

[Mustafa]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22

When a goal is scored in a game is pot luck in my opinion. It is pure guesswork' date=' i don't think you can say Germany are very likely to score in the first 30 minutes... They are just as likely to score between 30-45 mins? It could easily be 0-0 at half time, it could be 1-0 to Greece at half-time. Just because they scored early in a couple of previous games, [b']does not relate to the following match, as every match is different.

The same can be said about every single bet.

[Aidymac]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22

The same can be said about every single bet.

Not really. If Germany win two matches 1-0 in a row, i don't go along and back 1-0 in the next match. If Everton win two games on the spin, i don't go and back Everton in the next game solely for that reason. If Rooney scores first in his last 2 matches, i don't back him for the next one for that reason. If Ferdinand is booked 2 matches in a row, i don't back it in the next match for that reason. Germany could easily score in the first 30 minutes against Greece, but to say it is very likely because they scored in the first 30 minutes in their previous matches is not great reasoning for me.

[Mustafa]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22

Not really. If Germany win two matches 1-0 in a row' date=' i don't go along and back 1-0 in the next match. If Everton win two games on the spin, i don't go and back Everton in the next game solely for that reason. If Rooney scores first in his last 2 matches, i don't back him for the next one for that reason. If Ferdinand is booked 2 matches in a row, i don't back it in the next match for that reason. Germany could easily score in the first 30 minutes against Greece, but to say it is very likely because they scored in the first 30 minutes in their previous matches is not great reasoning for me.[/quote'] @ 2.05 bookies think that there is less than 50% chance of Germany scoring in the first 30 minutes. However, in my opinion if these two sides played 10 times, Germany would have scored in the first 30 minutes at least in 6 games (60%). Thus, there is a value in backing this to happen in my opinion.

[Aidymac]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22 But Germany have only scored in the first 30 minutes in 4 of their last 10 matches, against teams worse than Greece too. Israel, Switzerland, Ukraine, Belgium and Turkey... So why would they score in the first 30 minutes at least 6 times out of 10 against Greece?

[Mustafa]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22

But Germany have only scored in the first 30 minutes in 4 of their last 10 matches, against teams worse than Greece too. Israel, Switzerland, Ukraine, Belgium and Turkey... So why would they score in the first 30 minutes at least 6 times out of 10 against Greece?

Out of these 10 games, 5 were friendlies. But if you consider 5 official games out of these 10, then you will notice that they have scored in the first 30 minutes in 3 out of 5. We have different approaches for betting and different betting strategies, so if you don't like my reasoning just don't follow my tips :)