Germany v Greece > June 22

[Aidymac]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22

Out of these 10 games, 5 were friendlies. But if you consider 5 official games out of these 10, then you will notice that they have scored in the first 30 minutes in 3 out of 5. We have different approaches for betting and different betting strategies, so if you don't like my reasoning just don't follow my tips :)

Trust me, i won't be following your tips. :lol All the best Mustafa, again no offence meant, it's all about opinions, and i hope your bet does pull off.

[notoriouspunter]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22 Interesting discussion. The time when a goal is not luck. Some teams are better focused fro mthe start. Some need some time to adjsut to opponents tactics. Some teams attack from the start while others sit back to be in better shape in the end. The bet is a good option. Trend and observation suggests that Greece has problems at the start of the game. Now they miss the important player karagounis who is also very loud and influential on the pitch. So how will it work in their formation from the start. doubts.. The germans are more supposed to get into their rythmen flawlessly as they play it in the same formation since some years and have a good form. Tough, Greek defense is far more organized then hollands defense. holand might have better/higher rated defensive individuals but they have no working defensive game plan. While greeks are all about defensive approach first and shwoed it with many teams. BUT they often conceed once they play against very good offensive players.

[icecreamdreams]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22 why are people trying to slate Mustafa so much!? His bet has brilliant reasoning and brilliant odds so i just cant understand people talking nonsense about it. and im sure in this tournament there has been a fair few early goals early on, without doing the exact research id follow his bet no probs and could easily pop a few quid on 0-0 with a lay at half time if there is not a goal. job done. but no need to slate people just do the opposite if u so confident and see whos right...

[Fedar]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22

Not really. If Germany win two matches 1-0 in a row' date=' i don't go along and back 1-0 in the next match. If Everton win two games on the spin, i don't go and back Everton in the next game solely for that reason. If Rooney scores first in his last 2 matches, i don't back him for the next one for that reason. If Ferdinand is booked 2 matches in a row, i don't back it in the next match for that reason. Germany could easily score in the first 30 minutes against Greece, but to say it is very likely because they scored in the first 30 minutes in their previous matches is not great reasoning for me.[/quote'] Mate, I think you are being a bit too arrogant, and besides, your arguments lack common logic, so a little humility won't harm you. It is not rocket science to understand that if Germany statistically scores early very often at big tournaments and particularly against lesser sides, it means that probably it is not a lottery coincidence, but that the Germans like to start games very quickly. Excuse me, but your examples are very stupid, mildly said. First, we don't speak about the last two games (quote: "If Rooney scored first in the last two games), but basically analyzed all the games of Germany in WC 2006 and 2010, and Euro 2008. And if Rooney tends to score first in, say, 60% of the games, that it is a bloody good bet to pick him at 2.05. Don't you get it now or you need extra explanation?! Mustafa, btw, followed a similar strategy with Man City at the Premiership - he used to pick "more goals to be scored in the second half", and I think this bet was particularly successful over the whole season (I think it was about 80% success rate at coeff. equal to at least 1.80). According to your "arguments", if Man City scores more in the second half for, say, 5 games, then it is just a coincidence from which you cannot draw any conclusion, and it does not have anything to do with particular style, tactic and playing habits. Well, if you thought so, you'd have been damn wrong and losing lots of money this season. Please, reflect twice (at least) before ridiculing other people's arguments and strategies, because what you are saying does not make much sense.

[Aidymac]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22 Karagounis out is a big blow to Greece. I can certainly see Germany winning this game comfortably. Germany -1 @ 21/20 with Bet365 looks good value to me. Looking forward to this game.

[Mustafa]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22

why are people trying to slate Mustafa so much!? His bet has brilliant reasoning and brilliant odds so i just cant understand people talking nonsense about it. and im sure in this tournament there has been a fair few early goals early on' date=' without doing the exact research id follow his bet no probs and could easily pop a few quid on 0-0 with a lay at half time if there is not a goal. job done. but no need to slate people just do the opposite if u so confident and see whos right...[/quote'] I already got used to the fact that some people like arguing, and I don't have a problem with that, maybe it is because I am a lawyer :) Anyway, I really hope my bet wins since I have lost most of my bets during the tournament.

[Jazzy Jim]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22 You won't get any arguments from me Mustafa, always find your reasoning helpful. Anyway, Germany have won their last 14 consecutive competitive matches, conceding 11 goals in those. Notably that includes a goal apiece versus Holland & Denmark, 2 versus Uruguay. Worryingly 2 against Austria. Still I believe the Greeks will need to rely on more than set-pieces to break down the Germans. Great prices on the draw and a Greek win, I love betting on the outsider (and in this tournament it's paid off) but only when the stats and my instinct tell me it's possible, not in this case I'm afraid. Germany to win to nil @ 2.1 Ladbrokes (2pts)

[cheekymonkey74]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22 I feel Greece's defence is not of high quality, it's just that they are forced to play defensive in most games and teams simply struggle to break park-the-bus teams down. Their midfield is the real problem, where they lose the ball far too easily. Germany will dominate the game in a huge way and will create untold chances. Greece's defence when up against a quality attack will simply crumble. Their defence has a history of conceding at bad times, such as start of games or halves or end of games. They lose confidence, focus and capitulate. I will simply lump on Germany -2.5, overs on corners and cards treble. I also like a card in first 10 minutes 5/1.

[Rob the I ty]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22 Agree with many on here. Germany to win to nil @1.83 with bet365 (8/10) While Germany have conceded twice in the past 2 gmatches they've been sturdy defensively. Greece will definitely try to hit on the counter and you know they'll have about 35% possession. Greece have carved out some opportunities but they've been due to goal keeping errors or outfield errors and the odd set piece. Low and the Germans know what it takes to snuff out teams like Greece in the KO phases. I can't expect Greece to have more than 1 or 2 decent goal scoing opportunities and with Neuer and a solid defense I don't expect the Germans to concede.

[Bubba-Gee]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22 I too like Mustafa feel the Germans can get out the starting blocks early and will be having 5 units Germany 2-0 ht score 11/2 and 3 units Germany 3-0 ht 16/1, good luck people

[kevshat]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22 4pts Under 2.5 goals Evs Ladbrokes

I think this will be a tight, low scoring game. Not just because Greece are involved although I’m sure that will help matters but because Germany haven’t really hit their straps in this tournament yet themselves and being such overwhelming favourites could just be a burden on them. Full preview here:

http://www.punterslounge.com/germany-vs-greece-betting--two-well-drilled-sides-can-play-out-a-tight-quarter-final-in-gdansk

[altocirrus]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22 People should chill the * out here. You are here to find inspiration and suggestion, not to start a debate or fight. I don't post often here, but I see huge contribution from Mustafa and some seniors here. Perhaps newbies could use some respect toward them? Anyway, aren't we all here aiming for the same thing? Profit?

[maliniok]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22 Sorry Kevshat but it annoys me when people say that Germany haven't hit their straps yet. They won 3 games and in the 2 games I watched (Portugal and Holland) they were excellent. Against Portugal they were well organised, determined and patient. Yes in the last 15 minutes they allowed Portugal too much space but with thwie excellent goalkeeper they really could afford a 15 min blip in 3 games. Against Holland it was the best performance in the tournament. They let Holland believe they may have some chance for the first 20 minutes and then they killed them with two fantastic goals. Denmark game I didn't watch so can't comment. Not sure what more you would want from a team to say that they've been playing well? 5-0 in every game?

[Sophocles]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22 I think people easily get carried away with the final scores and miss little things. These little things would have changed the way alot of people think. Lets go through this very likely scenario: Germany didn't win all 3 games (eg. lose a point or 3 against Portugal). Greece scored the penalty against Poland (missed by Karagounis) and the clear goal against Czech was not cancelled. If Greece had topped the group with 2 wins and a draw, would you think the same? Of course if Greece had beat Poland and drew with Czech then they most probably would have lost or drew to Russia. Why? Because that is how the Greek teams operates. They like being stuck against the wall and needing to win. Anyone see the Olympiakos Eurobasket win? 19 points behind in 3rd qtr! Haven seen all the games, I believe Greece (post first 10 min of every game) is better than the 2004 team. Of course the competition is much stronger in this euro vs 2004. 3 points to think about: 1) Germans looked tired in the 3rd match 2) German team could underestimate their opponent. 3) There is a huge talent gap however look at the first half of Czech - Portugal last night... 4) Greek team looks to be getting better and better by every match and their last win could turn them into supermen. There may be a talent gap but if one team plays at 70% while the other at 130% then that gap closes... 5) Santos is probably one of the best coaches at this Euro. Personally, I think the best bet is an under 2.5

[CiderHead]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22 Greece are lucky to be here after Russia's poor performance in the last group game. With Karagounis missing they are considerably weakened, he's there leader on the pitch and is a big influence on the team. Germany have yet to kick into top form in the tournament but qualified with ease and were still impressive in doing so. Greece will look to keep the game tight and soak up the pressure that Germany will put them under. It will be like the Portugal Germany game in the group stages with Germany dominating and Greece not offering much of a threat going forward. Germany 1.36 WilliamHill Germany To Win To Nil 2.0 Ladbrokes Germany -1AH 1.48 Bet365 Germany 2-0 at 6.00 Ladbrokes

[NoFear]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22

I think people easily get carried away with the final scores and miss little things. These little things would have changed the way alot of people think. Lets go through this very likely scenario: Germany didn't win all 3 games (eg. lose a point or 3 against Portugal). Greece scored the penalty against Poland (missed by Karagounis) and the clear goal against Czech was not cancelled. If Greece had topped the group with 2 wins and a draw, would you think the same? Of course if Greece had beat Poland and drew with Czech then they most probably would have lost or drew to Russia. Why? Because that is how the Greek teams operates. They like being stuck against the wall and needing to win. Anyone see the Olympiakos Eurobasket win? 19 points behind in 3rd qtr! Haven seen all the games, I believe Greece (post first 10 min of every game) is better than the 2004 team. Of course the competition is much stronger in this euro vs 2004. 3 points to think about: 1) Germans looked tired in the 3rd match 2) German team could underestimate their opponent. 3) There is a huge talent gap however look at the first half of Czech - Portugal last night... 4) Greek team looks to be getting better and better by every match and their last win could turn them into supermen. There may be a talent gap but if one team plays at 70% while the other at 130% then that gap closes... 5) Santos is probably one of the best coaches at this Euro. Personally, I think the best bet is an under 2.5

This is one of the best reasonings behind a bet I have seen in a long time. It has helped me to see through my flawed reasoning/thinking, which easily gets derailed (or atleast creates doubts) once I see the uber-favorites priced so short.

[notoriouspunter]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22

I think people easily get carried away with the final scores and miss little things. These little things would have changed the way alot of people think. Lets go through this very likely scenario: Germany didn't win all 3 games (eg. lose a point or 3 against Portugal). Greece scored the penalty against Poland (missed by Karagounis) and the clear goal against Czech was not cancelled. If Greece had topped the group with 2 wins and a draw, would you think the same? Of course if Greece had beat Poland and drew with Czech then they most probably would have lost or drew to Russia. Why? Because that is how the Greek teams operates. They like being stuck against the wall and needing to win. Anyone see the Olympiakos Eurobasket win? 19 points behind in 3rd qtr! Haven seen all the games, I believe Greece (post first 10 min of every game) is better than the 2004 team. Of course the competition is much stronger in this euro vs 2004. 3 points to think about: 1) Germans looked tired in the 3rd match 2) German team could underestimate their opponent. 3) There is a huge talent gap however look at the first half of Czech - Portugal last night... 4) Greek team looks to be getting better and better by every match and their last win could turn them into supermen. There may be a talent gap but if one team plays at 70% while the other at 130% then that gap closes... 5) Santos is probably one of the best coaches at this Euro. Personally, I think the best bet is an under 2.5

Its all what ifs. Its not the reality. Infact germany deserved every win in the group stages. They were not lesser then their opponents. Greece is even missing Karagounis due to a not deserved yellow card. Its cruel and unfair but its the reality. If that and that would happened doesnt change a thing. Odds are spot on. It might not pay off in the long run but this is not just some league game favourit vs. underdog with the favourit not 100% concentrated. Its euros... both Teams 100% motivated. 1) Didnt see that. They did play slower towards the end cause denmark slowed down too. Germany had enough time to recover for this game and has the ability for same quality substitutions. All players are declared fit training fully the last 2 days. 2) They see it very realistic hearing their opinions. They know greeks will play defensive and they know all their opponenents in detail. So chances are that they wont underestimate. They talk much about not underestimating while trusting in their strengths. 3) First half.. The paid a price for their efforts in the first half beeing totally slowed down in the 2nd. 4) You could say the same about germans..they get better which each game too. No supermen just humans and both teams will probably at the best that they can play today. No 70% -130%. It will be 100% vs. 100%..at least the probability is higher for that scenario. 5) So is the german coaching team. Infact all the coaches in the quarter final teams must be great coaches to go that far. Why under? given your reasoning you should back Greece at a very good price..? Gremany tired and understimating. Greeks superheroes. Santos best coach will tacticly expose germany. Greeks getting better and better. Sounds like a must bet on Greece at 8/10 stakes...? In 2004 Greeks had the surprise effect and their opponents like france are the typical opponents who underestimate other teams. Russians in this tourney are totaly mental unstable team and they might not even know about greek 04 triumph anymore and I somehow doubt that they were prepared perfectly for the that clash. And even in that game russia had many shots on goal but wasted them. Germany is always prepared with video analysis of each player and briefings for the matchups and they know what greece is about. So I wouldnt bet on germany understimating greece. The real question is what will greeks do if they receive a goal? In group stages they attacked with great motivation. Will they stay calm and wait still for their chance with germany? Tough now they will have ultra defensive team with just 3 players natural offensive. They need to bring Ninis or another offensive player which will destroy the defensive shape. I do feel that greeks hope for under game as that would mean no humilation. I guess they fear a big loss like 0:4. I would love to hear a greek insider who steps away from his pride for an objective analysis.

[BelgianPunter]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22 Greece +2 @ 1.87 I don't think this will be an easy one for the Germans. Odds like 1.33 have nothing of value.

[BIG X]

4 points BTTS @ 2.37 Skybet I think this price is too big and I will have a play on BTTS. Most other bookies have this priced around 2.20 so for me Skybet are a fair way out on this one. Of the six games these teams have played in the tournament so far this would have come in 4 out of 6. Both teams have scored in every game with both keeping only one clean sheet. I expect Germany to win this match but I think Greece can at least cause them some problems and get on the scoresheet in the process. Greece showed when down to ten men against Poland they have a decent team spirit coming back to get the draw. They also overcame a better technical side in Russia to progress and I think they will go into this game without any fear. The Germans quality isn't in doubt and I really can't see the Germans failing to score here, so I think we are getting a great price on Greece just getting the one goal.

[BAGS is BENT]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22 Defence[greeks] vs Attack[germans] in my opinion,quite obvious that the greeks will try and stiffle the game,upset the germans rhythm and try and disrupt the game with all of the tricks in the book.Wouldnt suprise me if it was 0-0 at half time,but the germans will be patient and i expect them to wear the greeks down in the second half,as the greeks will begin to tire,cannot see the greeks scoring,for me the germans 1-0.

[CookieMonzter75]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22 This year in general has been all about teams sitting back, getting dominated, and still somehow winning. Chelsea topped it all off by beating Barca, and its given the lower tier teams real belief in that though they not be good enough skill wise, they can still play tactically and have a chance. More and more teams are trying to do this, the problem of course comes when they go behind. Greece will play as they always do, and try to nick a goal and win 1-0, Germany create many chances though, and I think that the belief in the smaller teams playing defensively and getting results may have been a little overdone on this game with so many people saying Germany are underpriced and playing the Greeks with a start. The Greeks have created very very little in 3 games so far, and Germany will get the lead at some point, I feel they will get more chances to score as Greece are incapable of breaking down the Germans, even if they open up, and id back Germany -1 on the asians. They WILL win, probably by more than 1.

[RedDevil92]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22 Their are rumours that Löw will make 3 changes for today's match: Klose will replace Gomez, Schürrle replaces Podolski and Reus should replace Müller.

[NunoC]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22 I word of advice, this Greece reminds me of Euro 2004 Greece. Everyone says that Germany will win easily. Greece has a very experienced team with good players. It has a coach who really understands football and has been very successful in the teams he coached. I do not agree with Mustafa when he makes a bet that Germany scores up to 30m. I believe a 0-0 at half time.

[HastGill1]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22 Germany have named their starting XI against Greece tonight, reports Bild. They line up as follows: Neuer; Boateng, Hummels, Badstuber, Lahm; Khedira, Schweinsteiger; Reus, Özil, Schürrle; Klose

[SALVO7ITALY]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22 I've been thinking about this one for a while and nothing really stands out for because the odds are so far in favor of Germany, But if you look at Germanys last three games they have one them all by a one goal margin. I know the quality of the opposition is alot lower but Germany know one goal will be enough tonight. And Greece are likely to be 11 men behind the ball straight from kickoff. Tie - Germany (-1 goal) vs Greece (+1) @ 3.6 This has to be worth a big punt. EASY MONEY!!!!!

[HastGill1]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22 I can understand dropping Podolski and Muller but Gomez? And why change 75% of the forward line in the quarter final match? He will be crucified in the German media if he gets this wrong.. I appreciate this is only 'predicted' currently, and I'm usually the first one to jump down peoples throats for putting up team sheets hours before the KO, but I can't imagine there would be a more reliable source than Bild in Germany..

[RedDevil92]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22 Klose's technical skills are definitely better than Gomez'. Gomez doesn't do a lot than shooting on their opponent's goal. Klose on the other hand is playing more for the team and as Löw knows Greece will sit back with all but one player, Germany has to change a bit. Reus and Schürrle are hot for sure. Podolski and Müller weren't that good so far and both players technincal skills are under Reus' and Schürrle's. So in my eyes, Löw is doing right if he makes those changes.

[carat]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22 Germany -1.5 goals over Greece @ 2.07 (Pinnacle) While I rate Santos as a coach, he has proven his teams are hard to score against in club football, I think the gap in quality will be too big tonight as Germany is a big step up from every team in Group A. I expect two goals from Germany to be enough to win this bet, because Greece are pretty poor going forward. Samaras has been awfull this tournament and I don't expect Gekas or Salpingidis to get much success against this Germany defense. Defensively Greece has looked vulnerable at times, especially Holebas looked like a real liability at left back. I also think the loss of Karagounis is huge for this team. This bet could be spoiled if Greece scores first, but if Germany scores first they can play their favourite game and I expect them to create numerous chances and win by some margin.

[notoriouspunter]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22 Klose, Reus, Schuerlle , Özil is the attack and this is a very strong attack that I hoped would play earlier on. tough, Loew made the right choices in playing the experienced podolski and Müller in difficult group matches. Now he has a front line well rested and hot to play. This Offense has goals in them. If they dont play that well Loew has still Gomez, Götze , Podolski and Mueller to substitute in. The talk about greece beeing like 04 you will probably hear for the next 50 years for every tournament they suprisingly come out the group stages.

[HastGill1]

Re: Germany v Greece > June 22 Mmm..I'm not so sure, if you have won your previous 3 games in the toughest group in the tournament is it a wise idea to change 75% of the attacking players? I can't see the logic in playing Klose ahead of Gomez, Greece will be defensive and gives even more reason to play someone who is a pure goalscorer - something Gomez is. He doesn't have Klose's all round game but he doesn't need it, he wouldn't be the first choice for Bayern if he was a bad player. I'm heavy into Germany by the way, -1AH, and -1AH-1.5AH, but I'm not overly encouraged about mass changes to a successful starting line-up..