The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.

[danmw22]

Wouldn't we all like to make a living from gambling?Wouldn't we all like to get out of the 9 to 5 rat race and earn a nice six figure,tax free salary from gambling?Well I think in reality this is never going to happen for 99.99% of us including myself.Ever since I have been young I have been thinking,researching and testing all sorts of gambling systems/strategies and to this day none have ever turned a consistent profit.I suppose that's why the bookies door's are still open. It began long before I was even legally allowed to gamble.Mid-Week and Weekend football accumulator's.Hoping I wouldn't be asked for I.D by the cashier.After a couple of wins I made up my mind what I wanted to do for a living(completely dis-regarding all my previous loses which were well in excess of my winnings:lol)I wanted to earn a living as a professional gambler. It wasn't long before I realised that this was going to be alot harder than I had previously imagined.It seemed that no matter how much time I spent on research/study I could not turn a consistent profit.Finally I thought of value.Then it all started to make sense.The reason I could never profit was because the bookies books are never 100% and they will profit no matter what the outcome of a football game/horse race. Then came my Betfair era.After being introduced to Betfair by a friend the idea of myself being the bookie appealed to me alot.So I decided to start laying bets.For newbies to Betfair(like myself at the time),laying seems to be foolproof.Just pick a losing horse/football team.How hard can it be?It started well.Laying complete outsiders.Making tiny amounts every time only for one or two winners to completely wipe out all my profit.Very Frustrating.Then again the value factor came into play.I concluded that Betfair's odds were pretty much true value or very close to true value.So at best I was going to break even.Actually at best I was going to be down money after Betfair's 5% commission on all my profits. Then came trading on Betfair.Trying to predict movement in odds to lock in a profit before the game or horse race even starts.I tried many systems including many variations of the lay the draw strategy only to be disappointed yet again..Again for beginners this system sounds fairly simple.Lay the draw of a football game before the match,wait for a goal to be scored then back the draw at a higher price to lock in a profit.simple right?not quite.What happens if its 0-0? "just take out an insurance bet on 0-0 to cover your loses"

[froment]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.

So finally after all my negativity...

I'd say word in thread title is more appropriate, it's reality, not negativity; at least, reality for most of us amateurish punters... Anyway, interesting read. :welcome to forum, enjoy your staying here! :)

[only1woz]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. We'd all love to be able to do this for a living, I reckon. As with all gambling, it SEEMS like it could be easy money. I'd be incredibly happy if I could do well enough to make it a decent part-time job "income". I don't think I'd ever be comfortable giving up my day job to pursue a betting "career". I like the security of a stable job, but if I can add to it with this for some of the luxuries in life, then that'd be ideal, for me.

[Cons]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. I remember when I worked in bookies a few years ago, we kept 'tabs' on the bigger spenders (dont even know if thats legal) as instructed by the higher-ups. We could see over a month the wins and losses that the punters were spending on. Only 1 person out of ALL who were monitored seemed to break even or make a little profit. He only ever bet on bigger staked doubles and did pretty well. My thoughts are that if a whole shop full of aged, experienced, regular punters cant seem to win, then what hope is there for the rest of us?

[The Saint]

Excellent post Dan - will look in later!

[danmw22]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. Yeah I always wondered what type of betting these so called professional gamblers engage in?Because in my opinion nobody is ever going to be a long term winner if backing in traditional bookmakers.It's just simple maths.If your not getting value you will never win in the long run.Simply like flicking a coin and getting 1.95 odds on either heads or tails.Eventually you will lose.Casino's have demonstrated this for years also.The house always has and edge,just like the bookmakers.

[AlanJenkins2]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. I have never bothered trying to arb,as I know it gets accounts closed.If you want to make money betting,you have to use odds comparison sites,and only bet when you are getting the best odds or close to the best odds.Sadly,even that gets accounts closed. As I've said before,the bookies who don't close winning accounts are quick to respond to betting money,and always move their odds with the market.The ones that do close winning accounts aren't so quick on their feet - although they are good at advertising for new customers and marketing gimmicks ! I recently got a bit annoyed in a Paddy Power betting shop.Why ? Well,they refused to pay out on my ante-post bet on Fleetwood Town to win the Blue Square Premiership until the end of the season -even though they had already 'won it' mathematically,and been 'crowned champions'.It was perfectly reasonable for them to have such a policy - teams do,occasionally get deducted points for various reasons.However,they had fostered the reputation of paying out early,which had raised my expectations.The reality was that they pay out early for publicity.I had actually swallowed the hype.

[Machine]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.

Wouldn't we all like to make a living from gambling?Wouldn't we all like to get out of the 9 to 5 rat race and earn a nice six figure,tax free salary from gambling?Well I think in reality this is never going to happen for 99.99% of us including myself.Ever since I have been young I have been thinking,researching and testing all sorts of gambling systems/strategies and to this day none have ever turned a consistent profit.I suppose that's why the bookies door's are still open.

I If I had £1 for all the punters on here who 'talked the talk about value' I would be a millionaire They all think they know what it is but cant put there finger on it. Im not professing Im an expert in the 'dark arts' but at least i dont spout the crap as if I did, like the bull****ters I read on hear with there 'value this value that ****e' There is no difference whatsoever between gambling and running a business or even trading stocks. It all boils down to the same thing make the wrong decision your fcuked, just that with gambling and stocks you get fcuked a bit quicker. It takes certain mentality to be successful not just a few quid and a youthful bravado after reading some book about punting and spouting about 'value ' every other sentence. Winners are the dedicated people who research everything they can, work 24/7 at it and then some, Not you average Joe with a few bob sticking a £10 on a 14/1 shot in the 3.15 because he thinks its 'value' then when it loses saying ' in the long run I'll win because it was value' . The bookies are full of them and so are message boards.......................................click your red shoes together and go back to Kansas. . .

[AlanJenkins2]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. Well,let me start you off with a clue.You find a 97% ,98% or even a 100% book on an event.One of the bookies making up that book is right - and at least one is wrong.If you want to maximise value,you do not arb.You just bet on the price which is 'wrong'. I'll give you another clue.The traditional bookie,who closes accounts,is probably the one who is wrong.

[stho1978]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. "Think about it.If somebody had an edge on the market why would they be willing to share it with the public.Anybody with a legitimate profitable edge will never share it with anybody else." (Sorry - don't know how to quote only part of the message) Bang on. Why would anyone with a system that makes money want to sell it? Just use it and make money yourself out of it!Same with such tools as Bet Angel (no offence to Bet Angel's owbers / developers - it's probably just my ignorance). One thing I do like about betting though is the statistics behind it - not for making money but just because I find it interesting. I used to love reading old cricket score cards and averages. Strange or what......

[stho1978]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. Another point that I think Machine has sort of covered is that a lot of people, seasoned or green, just don't want to spend the time (countless hours) doing the sort of research that is needed. Same with someone setting up a business - people would love to work for themselves but it is so much hard work and uncertainty that the vast majority of us haven't got the patient or mentality to do it and deep down would rather stay working for someone else (it maybe boring but it's easy in some degree as you know what you're doing). But not me.....I'm gonna be a billionaire from betting one day......just you wait and see....

[Simmo]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.

After a couple of wins I made up my mind what I wanted to do for a living(completely dis-regarding all my previous loses which were well in excess of my winnings

This may have been a good place to find a new hobby, rather than deciding to try and make a living out of it! Seriously though, with regards to your point about not being able to profit due to book prices being less than 100%, it does make things harder yes, but by no means impossible. Apologies if Im stating the obvious, but by opening a large number of betting accounts with different bookmakers and taking the best possible price on offer, you'll give yourself a much better chance than if you stuck with one bookie. With a sole bookmaker, you might be looking at, for example, a 91% or 92% total book for a particular event, whereas you might get 97-99% by taking the best available prices. That obviously makes a big difference in the long run as you might only need to be 4 or 5 % 'better' than the bookie over time to make a half-decent profit rather than a much more unrealistic 10+% better. Not saying for one minute its easy though.

[kosminus]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. in my opinion, some advice. 1. accept decent roi . there is a difference between gambling and betting. 2. bet just one selection . max, max, max 3 selections on accumulator. 3. think about your hobby/job/passion for betting, only in the long run . have a strategy , stick to it. if you loose today, it`s ok, tomorrow you can be back on the road. 4. have a bank. have a staking plan. bet 5%, max 10% . use a wise money management . 5. before you place a bet ... take your money in hour hand and think if it`s worth to risk them on that odd, if you do accept that bet, at that specific odd, regarding your match analyzed. 6. your system must have decent strike rate. this is important. 7. betting is not about ..how much i win and what would i do with that money. see betting just like an investment. first of all....not loose the money ! it`s about risk management. 8. most important. bet money , only after you have analyze that match. 9. stats are not everything. 10. i think there are people who are betting for a living, cuz...it`s very simple. a 10% roi of ....1000 bank it`s 100 euro profit. yes, but ...at 100.000 bank ? 10.000 profit . this is betting. gambling is ... 10/1 accumulator, at odd of 1000 and wait for win the big prize. gambling is put money on that match knowing nothing about that game. ok, i`m a newbie punter :) so i accept criticize

[danmw22]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.

Well,let me start you off with a clue.You find a 97% ,98% or even a 100% book on an event.One of the bookies making up that book is right - and at least one is wrong.If you want to maximise value,you do not arb.You just bet on the price which is 'wrong'. I'll give you another clue.The traditional bookie,who closes accounts,is probably the one who is wrong.

If you just bet on the price which is wrong and which is more than likely being offered by a European bookmaker(stan james,william hill,paddy power)your accounts will be still closed.If the bookies believe that you will be unprofitable to them in the long run they will ban/limit you immediately.And believe me they will not be long finding you out!

[MPLouis]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.

If you just bet on the price which is wrong and which is more than likely being offered by a European bookmaker(stan james' date='william hill,paddy power)your accounts will be still closed.If the bookies believe that you will be unprofitable to them in the long run they will ban/limit you immediately.And believe me they will not be long finding you out![/quote'] Don't Pinnacle offer some of the best odds (and they don't close accounts)?

[AlanJenkins2]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. Yes,those bookies will still close or restrict your accounts if you win whether you arb or not.However,if you don't arb,and do win,you will keep a bigger slice of the winnings than if you hedge with the bookies who are 'right' - most of the time - the asian bookies. Pinnacle do offer some of the best odds - and they don't,to my knowledge,close winning accounts.They more or less 'are' the market -having framed their odds early on,they just let the market move them.Given enough volume and 2-way betting,they must win.Stan,James,William Hill and Paddy Power also move their odds in response to betting -but not quite as quickly.So the market can catch them out,but then they restrict winning punters.

[danmw22]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. "10. i think there are people who are betting for a living, cuz...it`s very simple. a 10% roi of ....1000 bank it`s 100 euro profit. yes, but ...at 100.000 bank ? 10.000 profit . this is betting. gambling is ... 10/1 accumulator, at odd of 1000 and wait for win the big prize. gambling is put money on that match knowing nothing about that game." I think this is one of the most ridiculous statements I have ever seen.betting for a living is simple?you must be joking?yes we are all well aware what 10% of 10,000 and 100,000 are but how do you plan on getting this 10% profit margin?and how often? yearly?weekly?daily?haha enlighten me..

[froment]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.

in my opinion, some advice. 1. accept decent roi . there is a difference between gambling and betting.

I don't understand this advice at all... :unsure Decent ROI is not something you accept; you must achieve decent ROI, and it's neither easy nor simple. Also, would you enlighten me regarding difference between gambling and betting, please? In my book, it's pretty much the same stuff. :/

[The Saint]

I don't understand this advice at all... :unsure Decent ROI is not something you accept; you must achieve decent ROI, and it's neither easy nor simple. Also, would you enlighten me regarding difference between gambling and betting, please? In my book, it's pretty much the same stuff. :/

I think the poster is trying to say that gambling is something more speculative such as a ten fold acca or a lottery ticket. IE. a mugs bet. Betting/investing could be considered betting singles at value prices in order to achieve a profit on investment. Don't shoot me down - am just trying to interpret what has been said!

[kosminus]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. gambling - if i bet on a coin flip , there is 50-50 probability. have no clue about the outcome. this is random . betting - betting on a game, wich i know the teams, research them , and have decide to bet at a specific odd. i risk my money after i take a rational decision, not on 100% faith/random/lady luck.

[kosminus]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. my question is that . on over 2.5 you have 50/50 chance of winning . if you don`t hit al least 55% strike rate ....why betting ? why ? cuz ...you`re not good , and you`ll no achieve profit the same on other markets ... 1x2 , asian handicap if you are no good ...why still betting ? maybe this is not for you now make a simple math. why can`t you have a decent roi ? decent roi means at least 5%, 10% +

[kosminus]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. and please don`t tell me that i`m alone in this tread, and not any other punter share my thoughts ...

[UsManyDead]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. Ohhh....living out of betting. That would sound nice, but it's much harder than it looks, especially when you have so many obstacles to overcome. This is more like a business on a full market. Your struggle to get to the surface will be like fighting to stay alive, and in one sense it does mean this, because if you loose you loose all your investment. There is no room for error and no room for stupid mistakes. If you want to be able to run a successful business (like betting) than you need to consider the same steps. You won't be able to succeed if you don't have a plan and stick to it no matter what. You need discipline together with a lot of other important qualities. But before all of these you need a system. If you don't have that none of the above mentioned mean a thing. You might be the biggest entrepreneur, if your plan is destined to fail, you will fail. After getting your plan together you must create your strategy of attack, and gather all the info you need. If you want to win in the long run you must be one step ahead of the bookmaker, by reading what's his next move will be. Even so, the ability of a bookmaker to close your account or limit it with no motive (or a stupid one like you are a winner) makes things a little more clear and easy to anticipate. There will always be those bookmakers that are just (in some way) and never close down your account, so why not stick to them. After all you are after a steady profit not bankrupting bookmakers (impossible although). Another way to put it down is that your business runs because of other businesses, so if they block/fail/close you fail as well. You need to make yourself independent (and there are ways to try to do this). On other way of thoughts, yes it is necessary to get the best odds available, but would it pay for itself? Is it worth risking all of your business just to try to get odds with 0.05 - 0.10 bigger than somewhere else? I don't think so. Even though it may increase your ROI with up to 2%, if you risk loosing everything for 2% then you have forgot your purpose. You are after steady and constant profit. Beside Pinnacle (which I guess is the best bookmaker around), there are some others who offer good odds like 12Bet, or others. With my O2.5 Goals system I always crawl hundreds of matches and I rarely see other bookmakers giving more than 0.05 than Pinnacle. But maybe this is on Overs only (who knows). Even so I would rather cut down my winnings and still get them, than rather increase them and maybe not get them. After all the way to increase your winnings is to increase your bankroll, and to find a bookmaker to accept those big stakes you can bet. Although some of you might have said that there is like 1%-2% of people living out of betting. Unfortunately I never saw one these players "live", if you know what I mean. Yes, maybe they don't want to show themselves and share with us, but don't you think that it would be almost impossible to not be one person that is different than them all and go out and say, brag or anything about his winnings (and I don't refer to those scams). After so long, it would be impossible not to hear about one at least. This thing could only end like: either there are none, which means that in the long run the bookmakers are so good at giving out the odds that they will cut them when you should win and adjust them so well that you won get value when you should, or we already are part of those already, by only getting something like 10%+ ROI. Think about Grex and his systems, combined it will give you on average 26,8% ROI per year for the past 3-4 years (I think). Some one said think what would 10% mean out of 100.000, then multiple that by 2,68. My idea is that there are no "God Punters", who have 50% yield and are hidden themselves on their mansion on some island in the Caribbean. Those who have a constant yield profit over a long period, those are the 1%-2% that we all talk about. This is what I think. We can all be winners, but the amount of time, work, nerves you need to put in to this it might be too much for some, so they can't get there. Good luck to all of us!

[froment]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.

Don't shoot me down - am just trying to interpret what has been said!

Huh, I didn't know I leave an impression of such a cruel guy... ;) Thanks for clarifications, though; new meaning of those two words for me...

if you are no good ...why still betting ? maybe this is not for you

They usually say that past success in betting is not guarantee for future success. I believe the opposite can be said, too - if you are not good, that does not mean you will never be good! Try different strategies, markets, staking methods, bookies, etc., untill you improve your profit/loss! At least, that's what I've been always doing; but one can do it only if betting is a hobby, as someone said above, and not a primary source of income.

[pinkisntwell]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. Does anyone here know anyone who is a professional sports gambler (this does not include bookmakers)? Also, if you do know someone, do you know how much time he puts into his betting research and whether he would be making more money if he was to be working instead of doing betting research?

[anaconda69]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. Good staking and force of compound interest will make good researchers winners in my opinion

[MPLouis]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.

Try different strategies' date=' markets, staking methods, bookies, etc., untill you improve your profit/loss! At least, that's what I've been always doing; [b']but one can do it only if betting is a hobby, as someone said above, and not a primary source of income.

Can you explain what you mean by this please froment?

[kosminus]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.

Does anyone here know anyone who is a professional sports gambler (this does not include bookmakers)? Also' date=' if you do know someone, do you know how much time he puts into his betting research and whether he would be making more money if he was to be working instead of doing betting research?[/quote'] how are you betting? your research is based on how are you betting . on what market . there are 2 ways of selecting matches. analyze match between team a, and team b . and you say that ....well i think team a will win , or betting on the goal line 2.25 is value and there is very likely to be so . or you only bet that home team will win.that`s your strategy. so based on that, you search matches for your criteries. you look, (based on your critieres/rules) what home teams are most likely to win . moreover most of the research is on the internet. what are you interesting in ? stats or ....real research ? at stats are looking everyone else ....that`s why ..everyone is winning (that`s a joke) look deeper try to get info about the game, about the teams , injuries, style of play, teams morale, importance of the match. read match preview, read other tipsers opinion. most value ...read tipsers opinion from that country. here in romania i can watch tv, on sport channel and get the news ...that almost sure you will not have it. moreover ...i watched the last game of team a and i know how they play . this is an edge. always look at the stats ...but not bet full based on them . if a team a has avereage goals on home scored 2.2 / game that`s a sure thing they will score this games ? i don`t think so .... do you know if their forward are playing ? maybe he is not ....or the couch has a different aproach for this game and will use an ultra defense formula and style of play, like chelsea did with barcelona and bayern. yes, betting is not simple. maybe sometimes you don`t have big results, but you must to like this. betting and soccer as a game.

[kosminus]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.

Does anyone here know anyone who is a professional sports gambler (this does not include bookmakers)? Also' date=' if you do know someone, do you know how much time he puts into his betting research and whether he would be making more money if he was to be working instead of doing betting research?[/quote'] i forgot to say that i`m not a proffesional sports gambler. and i`m not making a living only by this.

[Jase82]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.

Also, would you enlighten me regarding difference between gambling and betting, please? In my book, it's pretty much the same stuff. :/

I think it's a terminology that a lot of punters tend to make in order to differentiate themselves away from the average gambler, which has a lot of stigma attached to it. It's much better to be known as a sports bet-tor, than as a gambler.