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The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.


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Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. Yes of course that amount is profit is unreal even for almost all pros. Its why I put the word target in caps in one of my posts. It was a TARGET.edited to add that ok I usually expect to hit my targets so I guess it was what I expected in the circumstances preseason. What I certainly did not expect was Crawleys apparent money troubles. And I failed miserably to get it thanks in no small part to Crawley selling both ,BOTH:( strikers in January and Swindons late surge. As for my strategy I bet on accumulators in outright markets while endeavouring to keep back sufficient funds at the end of the season to hedge my positions.

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Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. In the long post I wrote a while ago I pointed out that I don't need much knowledge of football to make money from long-term markets. It occurs to me that perhaps I should give possibly the best example I found this season to show why I don't need much knowledge of football to make money from betting on it,ok? Oh yes and what I particularly like about this example is that I don't need to tell you what I did thus avoiding being accused of aftertiming. Okie dokie. William Hill had a market called 'To Win the Northern Section' ( and of course One 'To Win the Sthn Section) of the Johnstones Paint Trophy. Walsall were due to play at home to the Blades ,one of the two big teams in that section. Walsall were 10-1 to win the section and Blades 7-2. And Walsall were favourites to win the game*. There was to be no replay I should add. Now if profitable football betting is as hard as I keep reading on forums then presumably trying to work out how to proceed in this scenario should also be hard,no? All I can tell you is I knew what to do almost immediately. I will let you look up who actually won this game and indeed the Nthn Section at your leisure.( Though of course that doesn't actually prove anything). *In fact on the morning of the game the Racing Post strongly tipped the Blades to win the game and then they took over slight favouritism as a result.

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Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.

Moggis, hey, Common Sensei, is that you?! :lol Mate, no offense, but I get the feeling that you have been giving us too much crap talking. I myself, like you, have also won millions of dollars, making bets in retrospective. :lol If you want to impress somebody on this forum, please, post your "pro" bets in advance, not afterwards.
No offence taken mate:D I literally have not the slightest idea what I could possibly gain by impressing a random person on a gambling forum hence I'm not trying to impress anyone. In fact I don't even consider what I do to be in any way impressive. The main reason I am able to make a living from betting on football is because 99.5 % of all soccer bettors concentrate most of their effort on the 90 minute markets. As for posting my bets in advance on here what would be the purpose of that exactly? Are you or anyone else on here seriously suggesting that if I made a profit in just one season by posting bets on here you would actually believe me? I would need to post long- term bets for at least 3 years to get anyone to believe me.But why go to all that trouble when you could just pm me and ask to see proof? But strangely no gambler on any forum ever does that.Hmmmm. And anyway this thread is about the REALITIES of betting and trading for a living. Posting bets on gambling forums is almost as far removed from the realities of betting and trading for a living as it's possible to get I reckon.
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Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.

Guys Moggis is a known gob-****ter. Most people just blank his posts. He used to be on here a while ago, claiming to be a millionaire author and world famous pundit (even appearing in newspapers and magazines). He has never given details of any of his actual bets placed, other than to state after the event has finished that he made a profit on it :wall He has never given any actual proof on here of his bets, instead he just hammers in the same lines "pro better" and "ant-post accumulators". He has proofed bets before, certainly on another betting forum, where all he did was fail miserabley. I can't post links to it (as was in another betting forum), but he was minus a lot of points in just 1 season, and tried to desperately finish in profit by betting on a big multi in the end- and this wasn't an anti-post multi either (needless to say that fell flat on it's face), after that he left the forum :rollin If you search through his posts, maybe from about 2 years ago(?), he was running his mouth on another thread and he got found to be a liar back then, as he fumbled like a retard to defend himself, only to undo lies after lies that he had told previously but had forgotten about, then again he left this forum for about 6 months-a year :rollin I don't post too much nowadays as rather busy, but feel I need to step in, as I remember his name and the crap he spouts. The guy is a bull****ter. Edit: Just realised he has changed his name since his "authoring" days but I will look through GC for it, I'm sure I can find it again.
Okie dokie. I'm going to reply as fully as possible to this post but I'm going to break up my reply as this is the kind of post that I think deserves a great deal of attention. Edit:I mean HIS post deserves a great deal of attention.Because there FAR TOO MANY PEOPLE LIKE HIM on gambling forums. And so I'm going to begin by doing one simple thing. I am going to offer to pay £400 to the charity of Scottys choice AND his train fare to London AND his expenses for the day if he agrees to meet me ( or to make it easier for him a friend/associate of mine) and he would be shown ALL my bets. And the icing on the cake is that I would leave it completely up to him whether he comes on here and admits he was utterly wrong and apologises. Including the bets that I did as far back as the year 2000 when I used to bet each way in order to take advantage of the place value inherent in antepost markets. Now,having made that offer I'm going to predict that he will not take me up on it. Because I believe that people like him have no interest whatsoever in the TRUTH. They have no interest whatsoever in HELPING people win money from bookies. How do I know what kind of person he is? Because pretty much everything he has stated in his post is DELIBERATELY dishonest or ,at best,deliberately misleading. Let me end this first reply to his post by telling you just one thing. On that other forum he mentions he came on to my thread and told me, "You dont know anything" And my reply was to immediately offer to show him MY OWN personal bets for that season with the bookies. And let's see whether the wonderful members of this forum can work out whether or not he accepted my offer. I couldn't help but notice that he made no mention of THAT in his post.I wonder why.Indeed,I wonder what his true motive is. I will be going through the rest of his post in due course.
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Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. BY THE WAY, It seems that some people on here require me to show proof that I have had significant success at betting on football. Yet when Pinkisntwell offered a bet that I or anyone else couldn't make £20,000 in a year I ACCEPTED the bet. What more do you want!?? Its it's not my bloody fault that he then changed the conditions so that effectively not only would I have to make £20,000 profit but I would ALSO have to do it with a bank of just £20,000!!!!!!!!! Thats not my fault!!!!!!!! To make ( a near guaranteed)£20,000 profit doing what I do I would need to place £50,000-£60,000 in bets. JESUS!! No wonder 98% of bettors don't make any profit all! You just couldn't make it up!

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Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. probably only way to win is watching news and picking right tips, with bit of luck and ability to stay off, keep your head down after you win, it might be possible to profit. Been throgh all that, started on combi for few quit, with electroic betting it got biger and higher, but I lost enough times. Still my two experences relates to 2004 2009 and 2015. First I was doing picking three or four results, number of goals in chl etc , higher prices, and placing them into "groups" of few selections,than 3 or four of those groups went into bet of doubles trebles etx so if won mutiply could be nice. but this could be done without hours of hussle only in shops in Czech repoublic, u cant do it on internet unless yo willing to spend time with re-betting al these trebles doubless etc as one group had more results . they offer you only to make combi of each selection which isnt worthy. so i didnt do it since i been living in ireland . but first win for cca 1 euro i got 200. next i was close to hit even 300 for ca 5 , but got only about 100 as one result eft me down.. later on luck left me and i lost again dont know if i went into red numbers or not but lost most profit surely than , long time only occasional betting,rarely, exept my first irish bet (won 500 for 10 ) it was nothing , but than comes the online gambling. 2009 First I was simply doing all possible betting, most lower prices over chrismass hit one or two combi of tennis gave me for 40 2x 400 or so, ((my knowledge of who to bet on isnt bad u see ) and went from hundred to make 2000 in just day or two. i even left my job cuz it seemed really cool but didnt keep my head down started risking and lost most of it on silly prices than, nothing special happened , lot of seession was going from 10 to hunred or so but ending up losing it all. i was killing the boredom with bet 365 )) Significantly better it went before last year christmass period, i made about good few hundred from less than 100 and seemed to be on top of it but than I lost 90 of my hard earned caas, next day placed combi of seven SINGLE bets for 375 and wasnt lucky, it left me with 200 or less which i gambled same night, than, knowing i can loose, i placed straight Combi bet for 300EURO to win 1000, i could cash out 760 as 6 of 7 selection were already won, but memphis lOst to utah that night in nba and i didnt even casged out small profit as the game went completely nuts , they lead half with five points, sO i said thisll win AND i take full 1000 euro, but utah scored about 10 points in row and sooner i could react it was GONE. so i lost PROMISNGLY GOING month seesion of making slowly bulding profit but felt i ve done to much risking . again. the best comes in january. gave up for three weeks, than, bored again, placed tiny bet of sixty to win just only 80,thinking no more, just for fun once, but somehow kept going and i had few hundreds profit in just day or two woudnt be me, if i dindt lose it ALL ,445 on single bet .that felt awful. left with hundred euro, i ws determined to do my best to recover such lose as i knew i can, well, first night went to only 75 profit but next day , with some luck and good knowledge of value bets (i hit mIlwaukee in detroit 3\1, portland with washingtom 3\1 sholdnt cashing early but didnt want make any chance of losing as portland lost night before by 2x 3 in last second to go against boston. and i KNEW they were sppoe to win even if price was high. ANd boy portland wins, almost always home. So even after cashing out less, i had from 150 already 850 or so. , was great, went sleep next day lot of footbal, me already on "good " side again, i was going bet wiyh half of it , low prices, 1x, match to keep draw 10 minutes to go etc , cashing out early, etc etc after weekend i had from 150 >1250 . FOR SECOND TIME OF MY LIFE I FELT THS COULD GO ON AND ON AND ON . no more stupid losing but next day i got question from bet 365 about gambling andmade mistake by thicking one YES answer, i was half sleepng lol. I LOST MY ACCOUNT FOREVER due to it, but as it was only becose wrong answer maybe they wd letting me win big longer as i still left there more monety in past , but never went to 1500 profit exept 2009 ad 2015. i trust you can win lot of money if you ask me but have to keep calm, its psycholgica thing, they profit from . than, next dayi lost/won more over losing on betway (cca 300) clear profit, 1500 from 100 in less than week , no luck but knowledge + experience the only system that works i think is TOTAL CHAOS but you must be organized , wait patiently until berdych , nadal, or whoever fuck plays & you are SURE is gonna win, plays. tennins is good but only for THOSE TOP NAMES , otherwise it can be lot of bull if you dont know them. it doesnt matter that price is low as long as you win and place only 1 2 or very few selectins ,have decent budget you can afford to even lose, and you picking when you think the price underated by them, means you are SURE and they JUST GUESS cos they know less than you. it happens but my problem is i keep going after winning and start only guessing . /VALUE BETTIG. as i told you i was grabbing mucH bigger prices for total favorites in my opinium , in NBA,sometimes 4 to 1 agains 1.2 or so, you just need BALLS TO PLACE IT for more money and sometimes feeling that the lower price really wins break you and you loose. me, they get it right against my tip sometines but thats matter of luck as well. NOT EASY TO BET NBA ANYWAY, LOT OF UNFORTUNE RESULTS, its random like, only that niht it was realy well as i felt i will grab big price for big stake and i did, but it get messy to pick results from nba i can get good tips, like today and every week, monchngladbach in bundesliga being totally underated , just gues 1x and its nice price,guess 1 and its almost guaranteed , so you need to have your NAMES , call them your horses, and know wen they face SURE -TO win opposition and when you beter stay out of betting . unfortunately, losing my bet 365 account, going on holiday, wasted 200 on nba in hotel room, and than without proper condtions to do it, gave me only more negative experience as i went into the up and dowm, random names betting, couldnt resist, but i trust in waves when you simply keep on winning, and if you patient enough to wait for examle even whole week to pick jst right tennins or football to be played, and stay out of what only LOOKS to be an easy bet, you can repeat the success, and least cover the loses. the problem they get you on is addiction , and that can cope with any system, you simply wont resist to make 10 shitty bets wile waiting for one REAL . arbitrage etc i dont do its too slow , and as you said it, . say you need budget least 500 hundred, stress free mind, lot of time and lot of activity to kill the temptations to bet while waiting for real bet(s) and its possible to win if you know the ropes, who is who, reading news, etc. without SYSTEM that s gonna grind you and takes AGES to profit youll find less and less REAL bets as you facing lot of suprises as you go, , that you wudnt even guess to ever happen,, but when you know the form, the style they do and go against , its best to go for tennis. murray, berdych, anderson, nadal, against lower seed, Cerbe,Kuznetsva,some others these are my current horses, isner , they can win most of times in first two rounds unless playing against someone whos higher , or someone who plays WElL but not joining to many tournaments and having lower positon in atp, thats how you pick surprise. its mateterof knowing and feeling when its SURE bet, almost RISK free, but not to win one euro for 100, but least 25 for 100..... nah mean, sometmes its hard to STAY off but when you want pick SURE bet or two its there mostly in tennis if you cope with it

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  • 3 months later...
Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. BY THE WAY, It seems that some people on here require me to show proof that I have had significant success at betting on football. Yet when Pinkisntwell offered a bet that I or anyone else couldn't make £20,000 in a year I ACCEPTED the bet. What more do you want!?? Its it's not my bloody fault that he then changed the conditions so that effectively not only would I have to make £20,000 profit but I would ALSO have to do it with a bank of just £20,000!!!!!!!!! Thats not my fault!!!!!!!! To make ( a near guaranteed)£20,000 profit doing what I do I would need to place £50,000-£60,000 in bets. JESUS!! No wonder 98% of bettors don't make any profit all! You just couldn't make it up!
Yeah far point Moggis, I think it would be virtually impossible (or you would have to be very lucky) to make £20,000 profit out of just £20,000 invested. Even betting legends like Patrick Veitch only managed about 15% ROI, so to make £20,000 he would typically invest £133,000. The very best tipsters will perhaps make 20-25% ROI, guys like Tom Segal at Pricewise and Hugh Taylor at At the Races. Betting for a living is very tough and I commend anyone who can do it successfully. Not for the feint hearted that;s for sure.
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Like many on this forum I have never made money out of betting long term; mainly through silly bets. We all do them; the “Fun accumulator bet” “The last minute pun on a football match/horse race” and worse still for me trading… Still lose money when I trade and yet normally, my judgement is more often correct, but I bottle out when the market moves against me (Like many I would assume?) I have lost count the amount of times I have traded a lost, if only I had waited; would have greened up! As for normal betting since the middle of June I have had a serious attempt to be disciplined (I haven’t traded at all) and that’s the key… That word discipline. The other major important factor is to be able to pick winners! I like to think over a period of time I can produce enough winners to make me a decent profit. For those of you who cannot, you can always follow tipsters or even some people off this forum. I honestly believe most of us on this forum can profit out of betting if and only if, you have a Plan and stay disciplined. Firstly any plan or goals have to be realistic. Think you are going to make thousands out of betting over a short period of time, you are not being realistic! One other important factor is our own importance to how much we could realistically tolerate staking at any given time. I know deep down in my inner self that staking £200 a point would be out of my comfort zone, no matter how big my betting bank grew. Firstly betting will never become my full time income, for reasons I have stated above, so my next best option is to have a second income, a decent second income. My Plan 144points a year profit (12points a month) with a starting bank of £500.00 using stakes of 1% = £5.00 stakes. I have a three year plan compounding stakes My own goal is to make around £1300.00 a month with any surplus going back into the betting bank… On these figures and assuming I achieve the targets I would hit my desired target after 30months. That would mean a betting bank of £10.938 staking £109.00 a point producing £1300.00 a month income. Honestly; I still don’t think I would be comfortable with staking £109.00 a point; so I intend to split the points tally in half and probably use a tipster or some other source for half of my desired points per month/year. That would mean a maximum stake of £55.00 for each bet. I may even dilute by three making my maximum stake around £35.00 a point from each source. The negative for splitting and maybe using a tipster is their fees would have to be calculated into the figures. The betting bank would have to be larger or the goals above would simply take longer to achieve. Every best laid plan can go wrong; everyone has to accept that, the above may take four years or longer if my returns are not as good as I hoped! Equally I lose the £500.00 betting bank; I haven’t considered that option!!! Though it can happen; this is gambling at the end of the day. The annoyance I have, is with the people who on the outside of betting who look down on the industry as a little seedy. What’s the difference with someone investing in Stocks & shares or the futures markets; are we not all trying to make money? I would put our kind of investment “higher risk” but the returns could well outweigh conventional forms of investing. Remember that: This is an Investment!! I haven't attached the tables with the figures on; pretty easy to do yourself via excell. This is my plan; your plan can be whatever you want it to be, but be realistic!

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  • 1 year later...
On 19/08/2015, 13:51:00, Tiger21 said:
Quote
Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. BY THE WAY, It seems that some people on here require me to show proof that I have had significant success at betting on football. Yet when Pinkisntwell offered a bet that I or anyone else couldn't make £20,000 in a year I ACCEPTED the bet. What more do you want!?? Its it's not my bloody fault that he then changed the conditions so that effectively not only would I have to make £20,000 profit but I would ALSO have to do it with a bank of just £20,000!!!!!!!!! Thats not my fault!!!!!!!! To make ( a near guaranteed)£20,000 profit doing what I do I would need to place £50,000-£60,000 in bets. JESUS!! No wonder 98% of bettors don't make any profit all! You just couldn't make it up!

Yeah far point Moggis, I think it would be virtually impossible (or you would have to be very lucky) to make £20,000 profit out of just £20,000 invested. Even betting legends like Patrick Veitch only managed about 15% ROI, so to make £20,000 he would typically invest £133,000. The very best tipsters will perhaps make 20-25% ROI, guys like Tom Segal at Pricewise and Hugh Taylor at At the Races. Betting for a living is very tough and I commend anyone who can do it successfully. Not for the feint hearted that;s for sure.

I am passing by after a long hiatus and have only just seen this post. *

Just want to tell people about one of the members of this site. Well he may be an ex member not sure.

 

His name is Alistair and he pmd me a few years ago -I'm sure admin can check and they can read the pms if they wish.

 

Anyway,to cut a long story short Alistair has been betting accumulators on long term markets ever since. He and I have swapped up to 1000 emails over the years and we've had our collective ups and downs.

This season Alistair looks like making a £25,000 profit from a bank of just £5000.

 

Now obviously I'm not claiming that this is in any way normal . Nor am I implying that I will make anything like the % he will make but I am saying that this was the most straightforward season I can remember and it's a great pity that no one -or hardly anyone - listens to the likes of me.

Because most people have just missed out on an opportunity to make £1000s.

 

* I scrolled up from the bottom so havnt seen any other responses to my post.

 

If by chance anyone on here still wants to bet me that I can't make £20,000 from betting in a year I'm willing to compromise over the bank and I will attempt it with £30,000 starting at any point in the year as I bet in the summer as well.

edited to add that ,thinking about it,the bet would need to be at least £2000 and probably closer to £5000 since that person will effectively learn how to make £20,000 from sports betting.

A bargain Id say especially if I only make £19,000 and they win £5000!

But my bets would have to remain a secret between myself and the other party though they can of course report the outcome.

 

Oh yes. Since Alistair will have made his money from ordinary bookmakers let's have no more nonsense about bookies not allowing such bets/stakes/whatever.

Cheers

Edited by moggis
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  • 1 year later...

moggis I've read your posts on this site and I'm sure on others too and it's inspired me to try the longer term season bets. I've still not worked out how you do it so well! My bet this season is looking ok so far but I can't say I'm totally confident it will come in. Anyway keep up the impressive work, i'm sure there's more than just me who have started looking at this market because of your faith in it ( and your returns!!! ).

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8 hours ago, Zico10 said:

moggis I've read your posts on this site and I'm sure on others too and it's inspired me to try the longer term season bets. I've still not worked out how you do it so well! My bet this season is looking ok so far but I can't say I'm totally confident it will come in. Anyway keep up the impressive work, i'm sure there's more than just me who have started looking at this market because of your faith in it ( and your returns!!! ).

Oh wow.

That comment has made my day Zico. I expected to be told that this must be doctored .

In thst case let me point out that trying to win a million in a year is stupid .

There are too many problems with limits on markets you want to bet on .

But I felt I had to obtain overwhelming evidence that all the mathematicians and other experts are wrong if I was ever to succeed in getting across the very important message that betting singles on 90 minute markets really isn’t all it’s cracked up to be .

And that at the very least those who do somehow make money from 90 minute market are simultaneously missing out by not betting on outright markets so their profit from 90 minute markets isn’t as good as they think .

 

The secret Zico to what I do is that it really isn’t very hard !

(But if you’re only doing one or two bets it’s nearly impossible. I’m afraid you need to place quite a lot of bets usually)

Many long term markets are surprisingly easy to trade and what people need to do is just take that on board and think about why that is .

What weakness does a bookmaker have in long term markets ?

The other thing is that they MUST be bet in multiples.

 

Do not not listen to people who say they shouldn’t .

 

Thanks once again. If you need any help by all means pm me .

 

Edited by moggis
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Oh yes  ,now I’m banned*from bet 365 .

And I’m absolutely gutted.

Im totally bereft as their site is the second easiest (to skybet) to use for the bets I do and they also have the markets I require .

And because this is a very straightforward season and I expected to win a lot in May but now all my bets can’t be hedged at all .

Nor do I dare use friends to place  bets on for me with them as it will be obvious .

 

* well restricted to 30p for an accumulator not totally banned 

 

Edited by moggis
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3 hours ago, Zico10 said:

@moggis Actually not sure I can pm you on here! Shame as I've wanted to pick your brain for ages ( well about 2 years! )when I first read your arguments for long term betting. I've never quite understood the stick you got and other punters resistance to it. 

Oh.

Well the fact is that the best way for anyone to learn how to do this is to just do it!

So long as the stakes are very low you simply can’t go very wrong .

And that’s because this also happens to very very entertaining.

So merely by dint of placing a dozen long term accumulators on various markets and on selections that are mainly low odds you are going to have an interest in a great many games.

It will also make you notice how the results affect the long term prices in lots of markets .

It really really is a huge pity that few people even think of placing accas on outright markets during the season.

They are missing out on a great deal of entertainment .

And at a time when gambling gets nothing but bad press .

Well if you need to know something you can try asking on this thread I suppose .

However the way I do this is certainly not the best way . This subject is so complex that I’ve barely scratched the surface.

 

Edited by moggis
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By the way the thing that everyone should be thinking about is the answer to this question,

Since we all know that long term markets have big overrounds and since it’s clear from the amount I laid out I must have placed a large number of bets (and I most certainly did ,a very large number ) and since I cashed out 100s and 100s of bets which we all know are poor value ,where on earth did the value come from ?

I mean to say it’s virtually impossible for so many bets to have been value overall isn’t it ?

And of course they were all placed with the same bookie so I wasn’t even looking for best prices . And the average number of selections per bet was 11 -12!

So where did the value come from ?

Somebody on this thread ridiculed me for saying (on another forum ) that the bets I do aren’t value even though they’re profitable.

I stand by that remark . The overwhelming majority of the bets I place I have no doubt whatsoever aren’t value .

And if that’s true it means that almost everything you read about betting is wrong doesn’t it?

You don’t have to find value to make money . Only on short term markets .

But surely that can’t be true can it ?

All the mathematicians and know alls and experts think it isn’t .

But I think they’re wrong .

But if the bets weren’t value then how did I win ? Luck ? 

Well two years ago I missed out on a far higher amount because Doncaster lost their last four games and were 1-0 up at second bottom Hartlepool with 16 minutes to go on the last day of the season.

So probably not luck .

So who’s right ? If the experts are right then where’s the value ?

While if I’m right you have to wonder why so many smart people could be so wrong and of course how I made a profit .

But either way it’s interesting ,no ?

Edited by moggis
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@moggis I agree with your thoughts on value. In fact if you look at some of my previous posts I find it's better not to over think things.

I actually also think people have a gambling style so to speak. Some people are very mathematical in their approach whilst others are a bit more intuitive for want of a better description. 

It's interesting that your long term bets are at lower odds and such large accumulators. So I'm assuming you do bets involving things like barca/real, bayern/dortmund, celtic etc to win leagues? 

My long term bet at the start of the season was multiples of 2 teams across 4 leagues e/w. At the mo 3 have a decent shout at winning their leagues but 1 is 9 points off first. The teams are all decent odds from 7/1 to 20/1. Again i'm assuming these are higher prices than you would do? 

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