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About stho1978

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 06/15/1978

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  1. Ahhhh - course you do. That makes total sense. I knew how to work out the "and" (multiply them) but couldn't figure out the "or". Which of course is as simple as adding them. The answer's right there really given a sports book is made up of all the probabilities (perfect book - Betfair - 100%). Thanks both of you.
  2. Hi Thanks. I know that though (how to convert decimal odds to probability). I'm looking for the odds of one of several outcomes happening. EG the score to be either 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0. What are the odds of the correct score being one of those scores?
  3. Hi, I'm trying to work out the probability, and therefore the odds, of one of a selection occurring (A or B) - so they can't both happen. EG given I know the odds of each correct score happening, how do I find the following: the score to be, either: 1-0. 1-1. 2-1 or 2-2? 1-0 = 7.0 (decimal odds), 1-1 = 7.5, 2-1 = 8 2-2 = 17 Thanks
  4. Hi, Been looking at a few systems (out of interest rather than thinking they'll work) and quite a few suggest looking at past 5 matches to look for potential bets. As an example, O 2.5 goals. Look at home teams last 5 home matches in the same competition they're playing in next weekend, if they've scored more than 2.5 in 4 of last 5, do likewise for the away team etc etc etc - not asking for comments on the system as it's one I've made up as an example. The whole "last 5 matches" thing really annoys me though. Surely it's no where near enough of a sample - you need to look at the quality of the teams they've played in the last 5 matches for starters. Is there any merit of looking at only the last 5 matches (or 5 samples of anything in any walks of life), whether it's football, stocks and shares etc etc?
  5. Cheers Wayne - I plan on doing something like that anyway. I'm just trying to grasp the knock on effects for the other teams in the tournament (how it effects their potential profit).
  6. Can't decide where to post this, but this seems as good as any. On the world cup outright, I'm in profit no matter what: Brazil £165 Belgium £155 Japan £500 Sweden £200 Switz £280 Colombia £90 England £335 Uruguay £142 France £205 Russia £280 Croatia £75 This will be pure profit (after liabilities) through real monies and free bets spread across several bookies. Ideally I want to try and get it so I make around £200. Is it feesable to "borrow" future winnings to back one of the other teams to boost potential winnings? Eg backing Colombia for £10 from England's £335 at around 15.00. Of course that means England potential winnings goes down by £10, but what about the rest of the teams in the tournament? Do I just increase my liabilities by £10 or not worry as I've borrowed it off England's potential winnings? I just can't get my head around it. If it was just on the exchange and greened up, then I wouldn't have a problem. It's just because it's spread across several sites.
  7. How reliable are in play stats? I know there is software out there that can show you when a team has more shots, possession etc. but I was just wondering if anyone who bets in play uses stats or other guides (doesn't matter if you use specific software). I'm asking as I'm a great believer in that a period of unusual activity is followed by a period of less unusual activity. So, for example, Chelsea v QPR. In the first 10 mins QPR have had 10 shots, 75% possession and 8 corners but it's still 0-0 (completely made up figures). Now I wouldn't necessarily suggest backing QPR in play as I would presume that this was a slight blip on Chelsea's part and that things would return to a more normal pattern (or what you would expect to be normal in this type of game).So, therefore, the in play stats are pretty meaningless? You're basing your bet on a small sample rather than looking at the bigger picture, or would any of you in play bettors have a punt on QPR based on these stats?
  8. Xanadu or Mr Blue Sky? I'd go with Xanadu to be honest. Steve
  9. Hi - already got a Stocks and Share ISA and have some more money to invest. Was speaking to one of the management in my the bank the other day and he was telling me about a strategy he uses for his investments (it wasn't financial advice as he's not paid to do that). Basically, he would see how much his shares were worth and compare them to what they were previously. If they were at a high, he would reduce the monthly amount he would invest. If they were low, he would increase them or make a lump sum payment. Pretty standard and simple stuff (why I never thought of that I don't know!). Looking at my shares now they are the highest they've been since I opened the account 5 years ago. Was wondering though if it's worth waiting that bit longer or cutting my monthly investment now and reviewing in the next 2 to 3 months. I'm not looking for financial advice as such - was just wondering what everyone else's opinion is and if anyone else uses this strategy (PS sorry that this is one paragraph - for some unknown reason, the web the forum won't let me use my enter key....) Thanks
  10. Re: Maths Question - Goals Yeah I know but just checking my workings rather than the sample. I can use it on larger samples if needed. Thanks for the feedback though.
  11. Re: Maths Question - Goals Thank you very much. Just what I thought and a very simple question that most teenagers could answer but wanted to make sure I was right. I know it's a small sample but I just wanted to make sure my workings were correct.
  12. Re: Maths Question - Goals Ahhhhh it's not working! Anyway, hope you get the general idea.
  13. Re: Maths Question - Goals I've tried to edit this post, without success, so it reads like this (more spread out): Matches 0 goals 1 goal 2 goals 3 goals 4 goals over 5 goals 32 1 match 6 matches 8 matches 8 matches 3 matches 6 matches
  14. Need someone to confirm the following (it’s simple GCSE question and think I know but want someone to double check!!!!) If over 32 football matches the goal distribution is as follows: Total number of goals: Matches 0 goals 1 goal 2 goals 3 goals 4 goals over 5 goals 32 1 match 6 matches 8 matches 8 matches 3 matches 6 matches So in 1 match out of the 32 there were no goals scored, in 6 matches out of the 32 1 goal was scored, in 8 matches out of the 32 2 goals were scored etc. Therefore in % terms: 0 goals 1 goal 2 goal 3 goal 4 goal Over 5 goal 3.13% 18.75% 25% 25% 9.38% 18.75% What is the likely hood of a match having over 0 goals, over 1 goal etc? Now if there is a 25% chance of there being 3 goals exactly then there must be a 75% of there not being 3 goals. But I want to know what’s the likelihood of there being more than 3 goals. (I make it around 28.125%)
  15. Re: Systems and backing at true value One thing that people want to remember is that finding value is one thing but finding winners is something different. If you think Man U should be odds of around 1.2 at home to Liverpool but you can get odds of of around evens, coupled with the fact Liverpool have been poor away from home, Vidic returning from injury blah blah blah then you'd want to consider a small wager on the Mancs perhaps (depending on how you feel about the info in Liscarroll's first post). If you think a three legged donkey "running" at Nottingham should be around 100/1 but you can get odds of 150/1 then maybe save your well earned dosh and don't bet?