Pricewise

[erhaab1965]

I've not been a backer of Pricewise for 10 years now mainly due to not being able to get on or being restricted to tiny amounts but i still read every column. In yesterdays edition he advised Fencing in the Dante ( Derby trail ) . Only last week he advised Bonfire for the Derby but today he offered no explanation to why he has opposed his ante post selection in favour of Fencing further down in the betting. If you backed Bonfire last week then surely you'd want it to win and not a less fancied horse. Result............... Bonfire wins. I don't know why he didn't even acknowledge Bonfire as his ante post selection. Strange tipping !

[The Saint]

Re: Pricwewise

I've not been a backer of Pricewise for 10 years now mainly due to not being able to get on or being restricted to tiny amounts but i still read every column. In yesterdays edition he advised Fencing in the Dante ( Derby trail ) . Only last week he advised Bonfire for the Derby but today he offered no explanation to why he has opposed his ante post selection in favour of Fencing further down in the betting. If you backed Bonfire last week then surely you'd want it to win and not a less fancied horse. Result............... Bonfire wins. I don't know why he didn't even acknowledge Bonfire as his ante post selection. Strange tipping !

Because yesterday he probably considered that the price on Fencing was 'out'. No doubt, if Bonfire had been 13/2 and Fencing 3/1 he would have gone for Bonfire.

[harrisman]

Re: Pricwewise

Because yesterday he probably considered that the price on Fencing was 'out'. No doubt' date=' if Bonfire had been 13/2 and Fencing 3/1 he would have gone for Bonfire.[/quote'] The big problem with pricewise,and I am a great fan of his columns which are always of interest to read,is that it is nearly always quite impossible to get on at the advertised prices-which makes a mockery of things, as long losing runs are very common.The whole point about his tipping style and also Hugh Taylor of ATR (someone else who is always worth a read) is that again it revolves purely around the price of a horse which they feel is too big which may have a greater chance of winning than the price suggests. However the important point to note about their analysis is that it means that the race in question may well be rather more open than the betting may first suggest so even if you can't get on their selections at the right price there may well be some value to had elsewhere. I did come across someone in a bookies recently who reckoned that he did quite well laying all the price wise selections for a place just before the off as he felt they were always overbet. I know other people who do likewise blindly laying AP at SP. Does make one think that a contrary approach may well be the right way to proceed sometimes. Some things I've been researching recently ,although at an early stage, regarding commonly held views about the usefulness of recent form especially in handicaps, are throwing up some interesting and unexpected results.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Pricewise 11/1 War Poet put up today. I got 9s best last night.

[The Saint]

Re: Pricwewise

The big problem with pricewise,and I am a great fan of his columns which are always of interest to read,is that it is nearly always quite impossible to get on at the advertised prices-which makes a mockery of things, as long losing runs are very common.The whole point about his tipping style and also Hugh Taylor of ATR (someone else who is always worth a read) is that again it revolves purely around the price of a horse which they feel is too big which may have a greater chance of winning than the price suggests. However the important point to note about their analysis is that it means that the race in question may well be rather more open than the betting may first suggest so even if you can't get on their selections at the right price there may well be some value to had elsewhere. I did come across someone in a bookies recently who reckoned that he did quite well laying all the price wise selections for a place just before the off as he felt they were always overbet. I know other people who do likewise blindly laying AP at SP. Does make one think that a contrary approach may well be the right way to proceed sometimes. Some things I've been researching recently ,although at an early stage, regarding commonly held views about the usefulness of recent form especially in handicaps, are throwing up some interesting and unexpected results.

Nice post... Don't keep us in suspense though!!:)

[harrisman]

Re: Pricwewise

Nice post... Don't keep us in suspense though!!:)

still a lot more stuff to go through yet unfortunately although It's looking even at this early stage that's it's likely more to be about laying horses as opposed to backing them, especially in the place market hence lower liability. I'm particularly intertested in why a well backed horse and on paper seemed to have a consistent and progressive profile underperformed on the day on a particular track-is there anything consistent in their recent history's that rather than being a positive factor in selection in fact is more of a negative even though it may be against the market consensus. Likewise in high priced winners the converse and of course this is without even considering what the connections intentions are on that day for the race in question which as we all know is of fundamental importance.

[The Saint]

Carried out something similar recently - although it be from a database of only about 100 runners... Nowhere near enough... Stuck on phone and will post l8r

[erhaab1965]

Re: Pricwewise

Because yesterday he probably considered that the price on Fencing was 'out'. No doubt' date=' if Bonfire had been 13/2 and Fencing 3/1 he would have gone for Bonfire.[/quote'] Going by what you are saying then his selection is based on price and not form. Nowhere in his column did he even hint that Bonfire was his ante post selection posted only last week.

[harrisman]

Re: Pricewise still at very early stages but obviously the track selection is fundamental . Obviously a laying system just as -is not the full answer but a filtered laying system for the place market in particular as the liability will be lower,after looking at individual video/hereditary analysis of likely identified laying selections at particular tracks and particular times of year/connections will hopefully provide a reliable source of (laying) profits.Maybe!!

[The Saint]

To Erhaab - sorry on phone still... Yes - personally, I think the column has lost its essence however and sometimes tries to pick winners that have an ounce of value to them rather than the one or two that really represent value!! Daft hypothesis really though as its a personal thing as to what is value and what isn't!! As for not mentioning bonfire - I'd agree with u... He should know he has a readership that already know.... I suspect he is told to write the column for the reader 'on the day' though.... Don't have figures but I have a sucpision he is pants ante-post so he may not mention them For that reason too! :)

[harrisman]

Re: Pricwewise

Going by what you are saying then his selection is based on price and not form. Nowhere in his column did he even hint that Bonfire was his ante post selection posted only last week.

surely his column is based on a combination of price and form in an abstract way not purely determinable from figures etc

[erhaab1965]

Re: Pricwewise

surely his column is based on a combination of price and form in an abstract way not purely determinable from figures etc

Sorry I don't quite understand what you are saying , but what I'm trying to say is that if you fancy a horse and the price stands out then tip it , but why would you tip a horse you don't fancy but the price sticks out. Whatever he tips is not value anyway because it will always be at deflated odds. Saint , don't know if I am allowed to advertise any other website but if you google "Tom Segal Tips " you will come across a site which has all his past tips with analysis. Please delete if I have broken forum rules.

[mowgli77]

Re: Pricewise

I've not been a backer of Pricewise for 10 years now mainly due to not being able to get on or being restricted to tiny amounts but i still read every column. In yesterdays edition he advised Fencing in the Dante ( Derby trail ) . Only last week he advised Bonfire for the Derby but today he offered no explanation to why he has opposed his ante post selection in favour of Fencing further down in the betting. If you backed Bonfire last week then surely you'd want it to win and not a less fancied horse. Result............... Bonfire wins. I don't know why he didn't even acknowledge Bonfire as his ante post selection. Strange tipping !

Am I right here that you are saying Bonfire was his ante post bet for the Derby and not the Dante? He has it both ways then, if Bonfire wins the race it gets cut for the Derby and he can then make another selection for the Derby with an "already advised Bonfire @ 10-1" next to it while also backing something else for the Dante on the day. He is a strange character, says he does no form study at all but watches races, goes with instinct and picks horses based on price that he considers value. He also claims he doesn't have a Betfair account but wouldn't go into why he won't bet on the exchanges, very odd. If punters on here struggle to get on how the hell does Tom Segal keep open accounts or get bets on in a shop? As someone once suggested maybe they let him have the odd £20 on so they know what he's going to put up in the RP and can then cut it. His prices never seem available so it makes his column worthless at times, he puts up Bridle Belle today at 20-1 and it opened on course between 10-1 and 12-1. I fancied it but not at the odds so I avoided it. Has his luck finally run out or will he be back firing in the winners soon enough?

[erhaab1965]

Re: Pricewise Tom Segal does race previews on Ladbrokes TV in the mornings , so they will be aware of what he is tipping long before the other bookies. Over 10 years ago all I could get was usually £25 or less , now if i want to back a horse he has also tipped its still the same amounts. Does anyone on here get bigger amounts on ? Pricewise is pointless if your average stake is higher than £25.

[BillyHills]

Re: Pricewise I don't know about Tom Segal but when i used to work with a well known bookie it was common practice to sign up to all of the tipping lines and to allow certain high rank tipsters to have phone accounts and have what they liked on, or a pre determined amount (liability). This was to get the tip off as soon as possible so the compilers could sort out the amount they wanted the shops to lay before cutting the prices. Henry Rix was in the hot seat back then and he was very good before he went private. It made company sense to be open with the tipsters and be on side with them rather than just ban them and get to know after everyone else. Now its very much the internet world i would imagine the practice is even more relevant these days, they need to know asap and the quickest way to do that is from the horses mouth so to speak.

[RussP]

Re: Pricewise Personally, I don't buy into the Pricewise / Hugh Taylor hype. Sure, they can pick winners but so can plenty of people (plenty of them on here). As everyone alludes to, the prices are very rarely available anyway and often the horses go off at false prices. The thing that frustrates me is if I pick the same as them but don't get on in time. Then the value has disappeared. Think this Bonfire thing is very odd. Agree totally with Mowgli on his point. In respect of whether or not it was value based, he absolutely should be explaining that he has taken Bonfire for the Derby and explain why he hasn't taken it for the Dante. Odd method if you ask me.

[fintron]

Re: Pricewise

I don't know about Tom Segal but when i used to work with a well known bookie it was common practice to sign up to all of the tipping lines and to allow certain high rank tipsters to have phone accounts and have what they liked on, or a pre determined amount (liability). This was to get the tip off as soon as possible so the compilers could sort out the amount they wanted the shops to lay before cutting the prices. Henry Rix was in the hot seat back then and he was very good before he went private. It made company sense to be open with the tipsters and be on side with them rather than just ban them and get to know after everyone else. Now its very much the internet world i would imagine the practice is even more relevant these days, they need to know asap and the quickest way to do that is from the horses mouth so to speak.

I think this is very much the case too, that the bookies infiltrate the winning services and go bottom price as soon as they can to divert custom to other horses or firms. Dunno whether you can say on here BH but was it common practice for bookies to swap info between firms on bets placed by certain individuals or accounts etc? I have heard that it happens, that speaking it is illegal, but in reality it happens? That doesnt make business sense to me though, If I was an odds compiler and got wind of a dirty Irish gamble for example, Id cut the horse to bottom price and try put people off backing it to try protect the profits of my firm. hopefully then anyone looking to land a big sting will take their cash elsewhere and hit someone elses profit.

[BillyHills]

Re: Pricewise Good point Fin, only know that the firm i worked for were very protective indeed of their profits, if it happened we didn't know about it and no-one was admitting to it either, but as you know people talk and i'm sure the grapevine was pretty lively at times. Don't forget my experience was pre-betfair days and a lot of the top owners had a accounts without trying to conceal their identity, remember Terry Ramsden and his gang, brings back memories!