BBOTD - Sat 25th Feb

[Haystacks]

Waterloo Dock - Lin 2.15 (1pt win 14-1 BET365 BOG) Waterloo Dock clinched his place in this final of the Blue Square Sprint Series with a narrow win last Saturday, for which he has only been raised 2lbs. Although he is a 7YO, and was running in sellers at the end of last year, he has shown miraculous improvement recently, with two wins and a second in his last four races. Well drawn for a prominent runner, I'm surprised that he is the rank outsider in the field at 14-1.

[The Saint]

Re: BBOTD - Sat 25th Feb

Waterloo Dock - Lin 2.15 (1pt win 14-1 BET365 BOG) Waterloo Dock clinched his place in this final of the Blue Square Sprint Series with a narrow win last Saturday, for which he has only been raised 2lbs. Although he is a 7YO, and was running in sellers at the end of last year, he has shown miraculous improvement recently, with two wins and a second in his last four races. Well drawn for a prominent runner, I'm surprised that he is the rank outsider in the field at 14-1.

Absolutely agree with you - SHOULD have backed this last week and did to the tune of a tenth of my normal stake!!:( Talked myself out of it. Was absolutely sold on his chance for the final and still might back him tomorrow... Started to run collateral form figures on the race last night and had around 9 of them crossing the line together!! Would still say the price is out though - may well join you - we shall see. Good Luck with him.

[The Saint]

Re: BBOTD - Sat 25th Feb 215 Lingfield – Waterloo Dock – 16/1 – VC This is purely price led – surely the most competitive race of the day but I’d at least say this one has as good a chance as any which would make it an 11/1 shot. Good draw in 2 for a horse that likes to race prominently he has won 6 and been placed in 12 of his 32 course appearances – may be forced to cover my stake with a place bet due to his relative consistency here. Is bound to be a strong pace wherever it comes from and this will suit too.

[corky]

Re: BBOTD - Sat 25th Feb 1645 kempton so fine .5pt ew so fine 8/1 bet365 4th last time out over 2 mile 4 furlong, gets the extra furlong as has won before over 2 mile 5 furlong, dickie johnson gets back on today,and i extremely hope i get off this long losing run today

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD - Sat 25th Feb 3.20 Lingfield True to Form 1pt win @ 10/1 Paddy Power This is another very competitive race but True to Form has progressed rapidly in the last few months and I give him a great chance of running well in this listed contest. He has 8 wins from 14 runs on the all weather and 4 wins in his last 5 runs on the all weather. Since October last year he has risen from a mark of 65 to his current rating of 92. His last run over this distance came at Kempton 3 runs ago where he got the better of Emerald Wilderness who went on to win his next 3 races in better company. True to Form probably found 12f to far a couple of runs ago but got back to winning ways at Southwell last time out. He is drawn well for this and has the services of Luke Morris and although he takes on higher rated animals here, I think there could be more improvement to come given he is only 5.

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD - Sat 25th Feb *Portrait King - Newcastle 3:25* Very interesting that Maurice Phelan brings this horse over from Ireland to contest in this good race after a success with the horse at Punchestown last time out. Should stay 4m 1f based on the evidence of its last 2 runs, where 2nd over 3m 5f at Fairyhouse to Smoking Aces, followed by a win over 3m 4f in the Grand National Trial at Punchestown, winning convincingly on heavy going. Looks a very progressive horse and this looks an easier race. Big chance *1 Point WIN @ 9/2 Bet365 BOG*

[fintron]

Re: BBOTD - Sat 25th Feb 1.55 Fairyhouse Celebrity Sevi - Listed winner on the Flat for Dermot Weld and has recently gone hurdling. faced a tough task on his hurdles debut in a Grade 2 last time at Leopardstown but the experience gained that day might not have been lost on him. 10/1 Bet 365, 1 pt win

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD - Sat 25th Feb Sorry BH but I would like to change my BBOTD to this one. Thanks :ok 2.55 Newcastle Conquisto EW @ 33/1 Bet365 Rather large bet considering the price of this horse but I feel he has a good chance in what doesn't look the most competitive of races. Conquisto made an excellent start to hurdles back in 2010 finishing 2nd on hurdles debut at Doncaster before winning twice at Fakenham and Market Rasen. He then finished an excellent 5th in the Swinton at Haydock just 7 lengths behind the winner Eradicate. In that race Overturn, and Toubab both finished ahead of him and they are obviously very decent yard sticks. He ran in that race off a mark of 131 so is only 2lbs lower here but has shown he can be competitive off this mark. He hasn't had much racing since, and made a very low key return to action in 2011 finishing 8th of 12 at Market Rasen. He came on plenty for that run however and finished a very good 6th in a class 2 handicap at Aintree which was won by Far Away So Close. Not seen out since that run he made another low key reappearance last week at Market Rasen where he finished 7th of 10 after 316 days off the track. He travelled well for most of the race but weakened at the 2nd last hurdle and finished well behind. He likes to travel up with the pace which I think is the best place to be at Newcastle and he should have come on plenty for that run last week. The only 2 horses higher rated in this race are not in the best of form which makes this a very winnable race for Conquisto if you compare this race to his Aintree run last year. There are a couple of unexposed types here but they have to prove themselves in this better company. Stormy weather looks the biggest danger as he is chasing a hat-trick and the jockey's claim partly offsets his rise in the weights. Spiekroog must have a good chance also given he beat Bourne last time out who franked the form last week. I am guessing Conquisto must have come out of his last race very well, which is why they are making a quick reappearance with him. Is is proven that he does not go very well fresh but could possibly be a totally different proposition with that run under his belt. He has proven himself in better company and has shown he can be competitive off this sort of mark. The Steve Gollings horses are not winning but are running to form. He did have a winner on the flat the other day and the fact he has had no recent winners over jumps would not worry me. He is still only a 7 year old and is still relatively unexposed over hurdles with just 8 runs under his belt. I am very hopeful of a good run.

[fosterbet5]

Re: BBOTD - Sat 25th Feb ZAYNAR 9/2 ladbrokes - kempton 16:10 the runner is head and shoulders above the rest of the feild and im amazed hes 9/2 ! running of 150 i think underates this horse considering crystal bonus is 152 which seems to be mad , only ever coming at best 5th in a g1 and a win in g4 bt thats ratings for you . he runs off the highest weight but i cant see it being a major prolem the grounds fine , this runners a tough stayer and everyones carrying a substantial weight. he seems to be well ahead in the form too , for nick williams but his form reads 3-3-2-1-4-4 , being beaten by the likes of walkon , crand crus , tattenen and sprinter sacre 0_0 . i hope im not made to look stupid here but i cant see him being beaten here hes seems so much more classy than his opponients and hes a horse ive liked for a goood while now . trainer on decent form and jockey is fair enough . must go well !

[switzerland]

Re: BBOTD - Sat 25th Feb Newcastle 3.25 - Eyre Square - Win 5/1 PP Not the strongest Eider and I quite like Eyre Square who I think is a horse going places. In staying chases I always start with horses proven over the trip and surprisingly few of these have winning form at this kind of distance. Eyre Square was run over an inadequate trip lto but prior to that he won over 4miles on soft ground at Kelso. He jumps, travels, obviously stays and has very good course form. He holds a fair portion of the field on that Kelso run. Portrait King is a very nice horse but I don't think he deserves to be favourite ahead of Eyre Square. He has never been tried at this marathon trip so there's still a question mark as to whether he'll stay. Plus he's a young horse that has to concede weight to Eyre Square. I've had a decent each way bet on Eyre Square but will go win for the competition.

[skylark2009]

Re: BBOTD - Sat 25th Feb 3.05 Kempton - Hector's Choice - 8yo's have an excellent record in this race with 5 winners from the last 10 runnings and including the winners, 11 have placed from a total of 37 runners. There are two 8yo's today, Fiendish Flame and Hector's Choice. Using a formline through Consigliere, indicates that Hector's Choice may be the better of the two at the weights today. He's been in good form of late and may well be capable of running into a place today. 3.05 Kempton: Hector's Choice - 0.5pts E/w @ 8/1 Paddy Power (BOG)

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD - Sat 25th Feb 3.25 Newcastle - 1pt win Incentivise @ 14/1 (Hills) Interesting, but relatively unspectacular renewal of the Eider Chase, and Richard Lee sends up this chap for the stable's first runner ever at Newcastle. He has three runners today, each at different tracks, and typical first-choice jockey Charlie Poste replaces Jake Greenall on this one. Whether he had a choice, I do not know, but it's no negative, for sure. I ticked off a few of these, perhaps rather foolishly, but Portrait King has been heavily smashed in the weights, and I'm happy to take him on under his penalty, for all he is a threat. A couple of fancied runners came down when in contention in the recent race he won, so I'll let him win at his current price of 4/1 I think, if he remains fairly treated. The form of Eyre Square's win at Kelso doesn't look all that strong, and he, along with Mister Marker, Captain Americo, and Posh Bird, may have exaggerated form hopes. The former had struggled either side of that success, and I'm not convinced the latter three were contesting great races last time out. I've been quite clinical with my assessment here, so am prepared to be incorrect, but I do really quite like Incentivise - especially at a very nice price of 14/1. Poste and Lee team up again, a partnership which boasts a very healthy +£86 profit to level stakes, and I don't think they're bringing this one up North to make up the numbers. He really is a true stayer, which is what is needed in this contest. He's a winner off 3lbs lower in December 2010, so his current mark of 113 may not be beyond him - especially over marathon trips. He does have a habit of getting outpaced in his races, but that seems a little less probable around this track and over this trip, but this occured in each of his races this season. Was a bit of an eyecatcher on his seasonal return when staying on without threatening, before disappointing at Exeter. However, he seems happier on left-handed tracks so I will forgive him that effort. His defeat last time back at Bangor, when beaten 28l, wasn't as bad as it appears on first glance. He looked to be struggling before keeping on quite well again to reach 4th of 9 come the line, and the extra yardage on a more testing track will suit here. Stronger handling will certainly suit, and he's just sliding down the weights. He's had a nice break since his latest run, to freshen him up, and his record after a break is pretty good. He's a previous winner when fresh, and his best effort this season came first time out, so the 73 days off the track can be a blessing, rather than a concern for this one. He's possibly one of the better treated horses in the race, and really ought to relish the conditions today. He looks overpriced, and is well worth an investment at the price.

[Lars]

Re: BBOTD - Sat 25th Feb The now “Racing Plus Chase” hasn’t got as big a field as it usually does, but it is of course a fairly competitive race. A few here will have eyes on Cheltenham or Aintree and I do think that SARANDO (15:05) has been the forgotten horse since falling in the Hennessey and although his form subsequently hasn’t been great, I think he’s been raced with this contest in mind and he looks severely overpriced if putting it altogether off a mark of 145. A fair hurdler, he really improved for fences although was a tad slow on the uptake, but put in an absolutely cracking effort on good ground at the Aintree Festival last year, when finishing only a neck behind the classy Quito De La Roque, just being worn down in the closing stages after a protracted duel in the Mildmay Novice event. He’s only really backed that up once subsequently, when winning a Graduation Chase event at Carlisle over this trip fairly easily, although on the subsequent form of the others he needed to. Pitched into the Hennessey three weeks later, he held every chance travelling well until falling with five left to jump. I’m pretty sure he would have in the top six or so if he’d completed (had jumped well prior to this) so it wasn’t a performance to be too disheartening, unless his confidence has been dented. Some will point to that being so when pulled up in the Rowland Meryick at Wetherby on Boxing Day. However, for a start he was held-up (which doesn’t suit) and was running on bottomless ground (also probably didn’t suit). He never really travelled and it’s an effort worth ignoring in my view, and the 4lbs he’s been dropped in the handicap because of it only makes him a more attractive punting prospect. He wasn’t seen until last week at Ascot when running over an inadequate trip over hurdles. Paul Webber has been quoted that they only ran him to get a run into him, as he’s a “stuffy horse” and that stable had been held-up a bit by the frost. It’s easy to see this by his effort, tapped for speed before staying on again under hands and heels riding. To me, it looked like an obvious pipe-opener for this race. Although the likes of Planet of Sound and Deep Purple are slightly more classy animals, they have targets elsewhere in the Grand National and although they’ll be unpenalised for any victory, I wouldn’t have said a hard race today would be completely in their best interests for the Aintree Marathon, along with the fact I’m not entirely sure that the drop in distance for them both is ideal. Animals such as Michel Le Bon are priced really on reputation at home, although his last effort in the Hennessey was a promising one, he isn’t really a punting proposition at 5/1 for anyone without inside information. Nacarat has a cracking record in this race but I’d rather be on a potential improver than one who’s falling like a stone in the ratings, and I just think that Sarando has been completely ignored in this market. He seems to have been raced since the Hennessey with this sort of contest in mind give his past two starts and I just feel he could run to something just shy of 154, which would put him in with a fair chance off his current mark. He’s no 16/1 shot in my book anyway, and I’d probably have him closer to the odds of Hectors Choice than of the outsider of the field. Good ground suits him and so does this kind of track, and although there’s a slight question mark to his jumping to his right (did it slightly at Carlisle, I’m not particularly concerned though) which could inconvenience, I’m more than willing to chance my arm that everything goes right for him, and if it does, he’s more than capable of being involved in the finish. Bets 15:05 Kempton – Sarando; 1pts @ 16/1 BetVictor (bog)

[Stevet1859]

Re: BBOTD - Sat 25th Feb 3:05 Kempton: Deep Purple e/w 8/1Bet365 (1/4 123) Deep Purple looks a decent each way bet. He is an eleven year old and has mainly plied his trade in Graded races. Last time out in December he dropped in to handicap company and came through nicely to win off a mark of 149. Deep Purple is five pounds higher here, however he does run very well fresh and added to that he seems to go best right handed. Looking down his list of wins he has notched victories at Sandown, Huntingdon, Hereford Taunton, Ascot, and Kempton too over hurdles. The ground should not be a problem. Deep Purple may be a little vulnerable off this mark however he looks likely to give his running and should go pretty close.

[Boulder5111]

Re: BBOTD - Sat 25th Feb N2.55 Embsay Crag 0.5pt E/W 50/1 Stan James This is only the horses 2nd run in a handicap hurdle so it seems a bit premature to be writing it off as a rank outsider just yet. On flat form alone this would be one of the leading fancies having been competitive off marks around 80 on the flat whereas the current favourite for the race (Spiekeroog) struggled to compete off marks in the low 70s. It's also won a novice hurdle well when beating an odds on shot so clearly has ability over the obstacles. The excellent Henry Brooke takes off 3lb and he's on board for the first time today which would be another positive for me. All in all, this looks to tick more boxes than the average 50/1 shot so it looks worth chancing with as an e/w bet.

[Edberg]

Re: BBOTD - Sat 25th Feb 3.55 Lingfield CUT AND THRUST @ 5/1 bog (William Hill, Boylesports) Cut And Thrust looks in with a big chance at a very decent price in this race. The horse won 4 races in 28 starts and all were over 7f on Polytrack, twice here at Lingfield and twice at Kempton. With Nicole Nordblad won over C&D last month (second last start) and won with Adam Kirby at Kempton the race before. Last time out was not that bad facing a tougher test with off 10lb higher mark than previous win at Kempton (again with Kirby) in a race won by Garstang who was short head second nto off 6lb higher mark and won lto off 10lb higher mark. Today's mark is 1lb less but on adjusted marks is 8lb less thanks to the 7lb claimer on board and that means the horse is just 4lb higher than last win over C&D when he destroyed the field. The Happy Hammer is a C&D winner but that came over a year ago. Running over further was nothing special of late and was a beaten favourite lto. Copperwood is probably the main danger since he won 5 times on Polytrack and is a C&D winner who was rated 2lb higher when he won his last race. Joe Fanning on board today and first out with the training of Johnston with a nice stall number 1 but still a lot to prove after a long run of poor efforts in the last few months. Reposer is 8lb lower than his last win but his form has been terrible of late. Showboating is racing pretty well but is 0-10 on AW. Getcarter with Luke Morris on board is another danger but didn't win a race in almost 2 years now. Muhandis won lto but this is a way tougher task with his new mark and the same applies for Efistorm.

[robertob]

Re: BBOTD - Sat 25th Feb 15.55 Lingfield: Getcarter @ 5/1 VC Getcarter ran now twice in a row very well after his reappearance. His first start after a 124 days lay-off in January was particularly eye-catching in my mind as it looked there as he would have a big say about the outcome of the race, though he faced plenty of interferences in the closing stages and didn't get the space to start his move. He had a rather clear run lto and travelled very well but couldn't find enough to win his race. He won only once on the All-Weather, and that is quite some time ago, but he's 8lb below that winning mark and I think his chance is way better to find the way back to the winning ways in this not overly strong field than 5/1.

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD - Sat 25th Feb 200 Kempton: Saddlers Risk (11/8 Hills) I think this one is the best of the juveniles at the moment and should take this on his way to the Triumph. He won very impressively on his debut over course and distance and the trainer thinks he's top notch. Doubts about all of his rivals makes him the stand out bet on a fair Kempton card today, Dildar has scope but needs to prove it on the track, Baby Mix has a poor run at Cheltenham to put right and Une Artiste will be surely better over longer than this sharp two miles. The course form and his jumping make this the only bet in the race for me.

[anokazr]

Re: BBOTD - Sat 25th Feb 4.10 Kempton Zaynar 5/1 stanjames win can make better time in comparable races than either the nichols of the henderson runners. i dont think the 25length win over a bunch of grade 4 contenders deserves cristal bonus being backed into 7/5. this guy only got dropped from the henderson yard last year after a crap run in the world hurdle and other than that he's placed in grade 1 and 2s for yonks. i reckon if he was still in cheltenham now he'd be 2/1 here.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD - Sat 25th Feb 1:45 Lingfield - Za'lan - Back Ran a cracker on debut when 2nd and not beaten far at all. This looks considerably weak as race and the opposition is thin on the ground. He should have learnt from the experience and on that basis should be able to go one better and break the maiden tag here 1pt win @ 4/11 Hills BOG

[Kithanga]

Re: BBOTD - Sat 25th Feb Newcastle 1.50 Bar De Ligne 2-1 (bog) Betvictor The form of both his hurdle starts is working out well. Harry Topper went on to win and then place second in a grade 2 last weekend and Cross Of Honour also won his next start comfortably. Has an extra 2f to cover here but the drying ground should be in his favour.

[jayalexander]

Re: BBOTD - Sat 25th Feb 1:30 Chepstow - Generous Kenny Maiden hurdle, here, where Generous Kenny's stats make his price look very generous. Sire's progeny are 5 wins from 27 over the 2m4f distance, with a further 4 placed, over the past year, as well as 2 wins in 5 at the track. Overall is 10 in 94 over the distance and going a further half a furlong is an even better 11 in 62, so plenty of potential. Carroll has placed 3 in 8 hurdles at the track in the last year and the jockey has placed around 1 in 3 of his 106 rides with the trainer. The horse hasn't performed well in his previous runs, but this will be his second time over the sticks, the distance seems more positive and the above stats don't lie. 200/1 paddypower (bog) - ew

[kev2oo9]

Re: BBOTD - Sat 25th Feb 5.10 Newcastle - King of the Wolds 1pt win 4/1 betfred bog was quite impressed by this lto , ran a bit keen but went on and won nicely imo by a length and 36L seperated 2nd and 3rd over CD and feel theres more to come on its 3rd start. Jefferson has an ok record in bumpers here , albeit with regen 0/3 in all bumpers , but given that was the horses debut cant judge at least one of those on that. Sire decent on flat and also has a decent in bumpers and trainers sole runner of the day

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD - Sat 25th Feb PICANSORT 2.15 Lingfield. 1 point win. I'm willing to persevere with him, as he does have another race in him and despite being raised in the weights without winning, he's still quite well in on his better efforts. Likes the surface and trip, so hopefully he'll get his head in front again today. 9/1 Bet365 BOG

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: BBOTD - Sat 25th Feb 2.15 Lingfield - Sulis Minerva - 5/1 Bet365 Think this ones a massive price here, the form of her last race looks really strong in this company and she's now 2lbs lower here with RDS claiming 5lbs. Back up to 6f where her best form has come and she still looks progressive. Most of these dont look to have much in hand with the handicapper and as long as this one gets a decent early position i think she'll win.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD - Sat 25th Feb Mr Syntax 2.20 Newcastle. 1 point win. Decent effort last time and he should be more than capable of improving upon it. Gets in off the same mark today, so with no trip and ground worries, he has no excuses. Has had a bit of a break, but this race been in their minds and so if all goes well, he should be fighting out the finish. 5/1 Bet365 (bog)

[bigprice]

Re: BBOTD - Sat 25th Feb 3.55 lingfield reposer 12/1 step up should suit,,

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD - Sat 25th Feb

3.55 lingfield reposer 12/1 step up should suit,,

Can you stop posting in this thread unless you have a read of the rules first, thank you so much.