BBOTD - Tues 7th Feb 2012

[The Saint]

445 - Southwell - Hunters Belt - 9/2 VC Explanation to follow...

[The Saint]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 7th Feb 2012

445 - Southwell - Hunters Belt - 9/2 VC Explanation to follow...

Sorry about that! My nearly 1 year old has been demanding attention! Outrageous!!! Course form reads 2 3 1 2 and has traded at lows of 1.02, 1.27 & 1.10 for the defeats. Travels strongly, has won over CD, top pilot on board. It's probably safe to say you would get a good run for your money and an EW bet would practically be a bet to nothing. Would have backed at 3/1 so have to jump at the 9/2. Sorry I can't put as much as I would like into this reasoning today - think I just about made the word count!:)

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 7th Feb 2012 3.45 Southwell Ghostwing 1pt win @ 8/1 Ladbrokes This is probably one of the most competitive race’s today so a little crazy to be napping in this but I do like Ghostwing here. Plenty in this race can be given chances but I think Ghostwing has excellent claims returning to this track. This horse showed vastly improved form on his first attempt on the surface when finishing 2^nd to Cadeaux Pearl at the end of December last year. That run came over 5f, and he was actually well detached coming into the final couple of furlongs but ran on very strongly to just go down by a length. He then confirmed that run when breaking the track record over the same CD. This time he was fairly prominent throughout the race but stayed on powerfully to win quite comfortably by just over a length. The form of that race has worked out well with No Mean Trick, Shawkantango and Bookiesindex Box all doing well last time out with No Mean Trick winning. He then followed that with a terrible performance at Wolverhampton where he was never travelling and finished last of 8. That run came off a mark of 82 but I think the change of track was more of a factor for his bad run than his new mark. When he won over 5f at Southwell, he won off 75 and gets in this race off 81. What makes him of big interest is the face that Darren Edward Egan has been booked for the ride and takes off a very handy 7lbs. This puts him on 74 which is 1lb lower than when he broke the track record over 5f. I don’t know much about the jockey but he had a nice winner today on Trojan Rocket and won on Night Trade earlier in the month. He has had a few other placed efforts and looks good value for his claim. Although Ghostwing has been running over 5f at this track, I think the way he was outpaced on his first outing on the surface suggests 6f should be well within his reach. In 2010 this horse won off 85 at Chepstow on the flat and actually finished a good 2^nd off 90 at Kempton later that year, both over 6f. That Kempton run was particularly impressive as he only finished just under a length behind Bohemian Melody who is a very good all weather horse and is contesting some very decent handicaps over in Dubai at the moment at the carnival. The pair pulled 5 lengths clear of the field that day so I would think that there is still plenty of room to manoeuvre for this horse of his current mark of 81. He is still only a 5 year old so there is every chance he can work his way back to the sort of form he showed in 2010. Brian Ellison always has to be respected at this track and he has the 2 at the head of the current market. I just have my doubts over the stable at the moment. Caldercruix is a horse I have backed recently and switched to this surface for the first time. If he handles it, then he must have every chance as he has been very consistent recently. Joe Le Taxi must be feared coming from the Mark Johnston yard and Bandstand could also run much better returning to this track. Tough looking race, in which half of the field could be given a chance of winning this but I just prefer the claims of Ghostwing. Novabridge who I napped today ran much better back at the track he had shown his best form at previously and I expect the same with this one. I am willing to forget his last run at Wolverhampton and expect him to build on his 2 very eye-catching runs on this surface. I don’t think the step up in trip will be a problem and he looks set for a big run, given he is effectively 1lb lower than when breaking the track record over 5f a couple of runs ago.

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 7th Feb 2012 *Hunters Belt - Southwell 4:45* I backed this horse last time out when it ran over the jumps at Musselburgh, it was very well supported but did not live up to its favourite's tag and it finished 4th in the end, having travelled really well for a long way. Back on the AW over a shorter trip it should have a huge chance. He has 1 win and 3 places from 5 runs on the AW and was a C+D winner over 3 pounds lower in 2010. Has traded really short in all of its other defeat's, it has to make its move at the right time, so a lot is down to how McHugh rides it, but he is a very capable jockey. All looks set for a big run. *1 Point WIN @ 3/1 VC BOG*

[chris34]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 7th Feb 2012 3.45 Southwell Competitive looking handicap. Ghostwing had returned to form recently over this course over 5f breaking track record with strong tail wind on penultimate start, very disappointing under penalty last time out, 1lb better off today and decent 7lb claimer takes over but becoming more and more unreliable it would seem. Global Village has been in good form for this yard wining twice over CD went close over 7f around here last time out, another 1lb higher and requires a career best now but perhaps more to come on this surface. Avonrose was disappointing over CD last time out and up another 2lb since that run so visor really has to bring about some improvement. Bandstand is lightly raced and won here on penultimate start knowhere near so good at Kempton last time out but run 2 bad races there now so a possible excuse and ran 3 good races here only 1lb higher for latest win and could easily bounce back on this surface, Dancing Freddy keeps finding a couple to good off this sort of mark and just may need a help from the handicapper. Punching goes well here but not been in best form recently and this is a better race than he usually contests. Joe Le Taxi looks a shadow of his former self since returning from America and can only be watched at present. Upper Lambourn is the one that interests me the most, won a handicap over CD penultimate start with great ease 5lb rise fair enough for that and since ran a career best in a 5f sprint around here when coming from a long way back, should be competitive back in handicap on debut for another in form stable and is now 3 from 4 around here and relatively lightly raced for age and could be open to more yet. 1pt win Upper Lambourn 9/2 vc

[Dtrains]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 7th Feb 2012 1.45 southwell Phoenix Flame Was looking pretty much like a lost cause until showing a marked improved run last time with the fitting of a tongue tie, that run was at a trip to short so stepped back up to his ideal trip today and with the tongue tie on again expecting a big run on what is the last chance saloon for this horse. 1pt win 7/2 bet365

[Edberg]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 7th Feb 2012 1.45 Southwell Place Only Betting At Bluesq.com Amateur Riders´ Handicap (Div II) Cl6 1m3f DUNASKIN @ 11/2 bog (Bet365) This is the second division of the first race and I like the chances of the oldest horse in the group: the 12yo Dunaskin. Dunaskin has had a very good career on flat turf (7 wins, 8 seconds, 6 thirds in 61 starts with a win in a heritage handicap and two seconds in listed, collecting £152,481 and rated up to 99), a decent one over hurdles (5 wins and 3 seconds in 20 starts rated up to 130) and he's enjoying another decent career on All Weather tracks (3 wins, 6 seconds and 4 thirds in 30 starts during the last 2 years). Dunaskin joined Richard Guest's yard from Brian Ellison 20 months ago and in this very late stage of his career has been still able to put his head in front of all five weeks ago over C&D. After that race (29 Dec) a trainer's representative announced the retirement of the old warrior but he came back on track 7 days ago and with today's mark being just 1lb more than his last win over C&D he surely stands a good chance in a C&D that he loves (223121 is record over C&D) with top amateur jockey Mr S Walker on board and Richard Guest's yard being in very good form as written above for the first division of this race. Apache Warrior is a 5yo who will be running his 7th career race and after a promising 2nd in his debut in 2010 while still with George Moore he showed nothing. The horse joined an in-form stable such as the David O'Meara's one (10 winners with 51 AW starters in the last 2 seasons and 2 with the last five runners during the last week) during this Winter and even if his three handicap efforts were terrible (12th,12th,11th) after a long break of 236 days his debut on AW and his first out with his new training could give him a good chance in such a weak contest. The amateur jockey Mr N Slattery finished third with David O'Meara-trained Brunello in a similar race over C&D one week ago and has collected 2 wins with 25 rides over hurdles before that first ever start on flat. Mister Frosty has collected just 1 win in 37 starts in his career and that win came one year ago over 12f at Lingfield off a mark of 56 and therefore today's mark of 51 seems indeed a good one for this 6yo trained by George Prodromou who has saddled winners with 29 starters (17%) during this 2011-12 season (3 out of 13 for a 23% strike rate in 2012). Mister Frosty's last effort was a quite poor fifth at Kempton but the 75-day break and a handy mark (second off 52 last Winter over 12f here at Southwell) give him a good chance. Miereveld is together with Dunaskin one of the two C&D winners and no one else has ever won either over this distance or at this track so that's a very good note for this 5yo trained by Shaun Harris. That win came in December 2010 and the horse's best results on flat since that win have been two seconds over 12f and 11f always here at Southwell. Last second came over C&D one month ago (2nd of 6 in a seller 3/4L behind Overrule with Robert Winston on board) and his mark has gone up 3lb from that second. Today's jockey Mr John Willey takes 5lb off so his adjusted mark will actually be 2lb lower than his second over C&D achieved last January. One week ago Miereveld ran in a similar race for amateur riders but it was over 3f more (still here at Southwell) and in a 0-65 handicap so his 6th place (14 runners) 15 1/2L behind the winner Sistine doesn't read as a bad result in today's company. The big field doesn't suit him too much (both his win and his seconds came in very small field) but in this contest he stands a good chance at least to hit the frame. Phoenix Flame is the favourite of the race at the moment even if she is still maiden after 18 starts and has collected just 1 second (her best result) in 8 starts on AW. That second came 15 months ago over a mile here at Southwell and her efforts over longer trips (than a mile) didn't show any special improvement. Anyway she ran not that bad last time out (had a tongue-tie on for the first time and was staying on after losing the advantage over 2f from home), she is still only 4 (the youngest of the group together with Dolly Colman) and the representative of a good stable at this level (Alan McCabe) and with her current mark of 52 which becomes 47 on adjusted figures thanks to the booking of Mr O Garner, Phoenix Flame surely stands a chance in such a poor race but can't be rated as the favourite in my opinion. However Mr O Garner rode 40 horses this season and didn't achieve a single win (1 second his best result) and McCabe's stable didn't look in special form of late (0 winners with their last 18 runners, none of them racing close to their best) so I'm happy to oppose her. Magnitude on the other side represents a stable in very good form at the moment. His trainer Brian Baugh has saddled 3 winners with his last 8 runners and most of his horses have been running really well of late (only 4 of the last 15 missed the frame). Magnitude has won 4 races on flat turd (in 23 starts) but only once (in 17 starts) on AW and that win came at Lingfield two years ago in a seller over 12f. Last time out this 7yo finished 9th of 10 in a class 6 handicap at Wolverhampton, 28L behind Sommersturm but that was his first race after 6 months and with another 29-day break Magnitude's fitness should have improved a lot. The visor will be reapplied for the third time in his career (3rd and 4th in the other tries) and his mark has dropped down to 50 with his last win coming off 49 last May at Leicester. Another plus is the booking of top amateur jockey Miss S Brotherton (more than 50 wins in her career and 20 in the last two years). Last but not least Laura Land that is a 6yo mare representing the Brisbournes (read above for their super stats when partnering together). The mare won only once in her career but her results on 9 starts on AW have been pretty good. The win came in a similar race at Wolverhampton with Becky Brisbourne on board one year ago and in the race before that win with the same partnership Laura Land was second over C&D in what was the equivalent of today's race one year ago. After a decent fourth at Wolverhampton last May in another similar race, always with Becky Brisbourne on board, Laura Land had a 7-month break and came back just two months ago at Kempton finishing tailed-off 12th of 12 44L behind the winner Jamarjo. She doesn't look fit at all (dropped off the pace 3f out and rapidly weakening) bur probably she needed just a race to work on the track and lose 3lb so that for today's race she's again off a mark of 46 (the same of her only win) and 1lb lower than last year's equivalent race. Many question marks of course but with the recent exploit of her stablemate Harrys Yer Man the duo Laura Land and Becky Brisbourne look very dangerous in this race but I hope the Brisbournes will be happy with their win in the division I of this race :)

[fintron]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 7th Feb 2012 3.00 Wolverhampton McCool Banannas - posted this one in the '5 pts a day...' thread the other week and it cost me a trixie. Basically, was dropped in deep by Hayley Turner, met trouble in running, and was closing on the winner when finally in the clear, beaten less than a lenght into second. Turner isn't on here which is a big plus and the second is he's off the same mark. The negative is the small field and possible muddling pace, but its the closest i can find to a BBOTD on a dire days racing. 10/3 VC Bet, 1 pt win

[andyjkmak]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 7th Feb 2012 2.15 Southwell Magilini looks to have a good chance to get off the mark here in her first handicap. Wasn't the greatest run lto but I'm sure this shrewd yard will have been working towards an easy handicap mark and with the low draw and the drop in trip she may try to win from the front. Yard in great form with the last three runners winning so every hope that this one will go very close here. 1 Pt win 9/2 Bet365

[skylark2009]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 7th Feb 2012 2.00 Wolverhampton - Perlachy - Course specialist who is running again after winning here four days ago, Perlachy won by a short head last time out over a course and distance he loves to run at. Eight of his eleven wins are here at Wolverhampton, with six of those at today's distance. He will be racing from his highest ever rating and will need to improve massively to win this. He seems to be in fine form looking at his recent races and may be capable of improvement with everything looking to be in his favour today. Suddenly Susan and Shawkantango' s best form is at Southwell, leaving Steelcut and Absa Lutte as the likely dangers here. 2.00 Wolverhampton: Perlachy - 1pt win @ 7/2 William Hill (BOG)

[smith17]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 7th Feb 2012 14:00 Wolverhampton: Steelcut, 4/1 Ladbrokes, 1pt win Steelcut has won over the course and distance three times out of five runs. He has a very decent jockey on board in Joe Fanning, who is in great form at the moment and is one of the top jockeys at Wolverhampton. All of Shawkantango's and Suddenly Susan's wins have come at Southwell. Perlachy looks to be the main danger as he is also a course specialist but he has never won over a rating of 66 (lto) and he runs off 72 today

[LJD]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 7th Feb 2012 Master Of Dance - 3.00 Wolverhampton This horse is running really well at the moment. Picking up two seconds in its last two races. It found an in form horse too good for it last time out but it ran on well from the back to pick up second. The trainer and jockey are in immaculate form at the moment an I can only see that form improving with this horse if it runs as well as its last two times out Master of dance win @ 7/2 paddy power

[Lodge]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 7th Feb 2012 4.45 - Southwell - Unex Picasso @ 5/1 Bet365 (BOG) A winner over C&D two starts ago, Unex Picasso should make a better impact returning to the course after running dissapointingly at Kempton lto. He was also put up in trip 4f for that race so a return to 12f should also help. Trainer Ian Williams has had 4 winners and 2 places from 7 runners, since the start of the year at Southwell so in decent form and should have a good shout here today.

[fosterbet5]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 7th Feb 2012 perlachy wolv 14:00 10/3 betvic , selection first as it has stopped me posting for about 3 hours and ive missed 4's

[fosterbet5]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 7th Feb 2012 this selection today is perlachy , ive picked her due to the fact shes cracking form atm and and is a bit of a course specialist winning here 8 times , 6 of which were over todays cd i do belive . she ran only 4 days ago but this shouldnt bother her to much , the forms 1121 this season and all 1st are at this track , already moving as a posituve in the market . winning jockey luke morris on board and trainer in great form , must go close

[robertob]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 7th Feb 2012 14.25 Vaal (SA): Legislature @ 16/1 Bet365 EW This is an intriguing sprint Handicap with plenty of chances. Bullard goes for a four-timer. He won easily three times in a row but takes a big step up in class again as is rating increases further as well and he has much more to do here against some very good opposition. He still can race of a light weight but I think his price reflects quite right his chances in this race. The first three of the card might have a bit too much to do from their weight and that leaves the door open for my selection, Legislature. He's well handicapped today as he's down to a MR off 90 and can race off 56kg in this race what should give him a real chance to be in the frame when he's anywhere near his best. He won two good races at the end of 2010, the last one even over course and distance in very impressive fashion. He was then off the track for a year and didn't show much in his two recent outings but he probably needed them to get fit. However he wasn't disgraced lto in my mind. These runs came over 1.000m but he's back over 1.200m today where is 2 from 2. He might be still not the old force and lost completely his way but at 16/1 a chance is taken that he can run a big race in a field where some of the rivals have a bit to prove.

[Boulder5111]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 7th Feb 2012 S1.15 Fantastic Storm 0.5pt E/W 50/1 BetVictor This one drops back in trip by 2 furlongs since its last effort under this pilot when it blazed a trail and weakened just over 2 furlongs from home. It has a change of headgear today which hopefully will help and it is still unexposed since this is its first run on the All Weather. Being progeny of Green Desert suggests it might improve for racing on this surface and that horses offspring have been doing particularly well this season. It's style of running would suggest that for excahnge players, it should be a much shorter price in running (currently trading at around 90.0).

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 7th Feb 2012 3:15 Southwell - Derivatives - Back Unoriginal one this and disappointing that he's still a maiden given he's had plenty of chances but he's been banging on the door and this is by a mile the weakest race he has faced thus far. He really ought to win this comfortably in truth 1pt win@ 2/11 Hills BOG

[jayalexander]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 7th Feb 2012 4:30 Wolv - Agjala Second time out in blinkers for this 3yo filly and a step up in distance of 2.5f. Did not really improve on first time out blinkers, but in my opinion has a much better jockey in the saddle after Raul Da Silva takes the ride. Sheridan and Da Silva bagged a 50/1 winner at the track just last week and could pull off similar feat today. Trainer's only runner today. It was the same case on the 3rd. Was also the lucky last :) 33/1 bet365 (bog) - win

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 7th Feb 2012 2.45 Southwell: Drawnfromthepast (4/5 Boyles, BetVic) Pretty boring but again my top rated and a short priced runner, just cant be bothered to trawl through the form tbh. Jamie Osbourne does well in these sellers and this one won a claimer last time went beating Hinton Admiral. Rated 82 on the AW and has been higher and has plenty in hand on all of his rivals. Only negative he has yet to run on this surface but he had one the other day with a similar profile that got the job done ok.

[daftpegasus]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 7th Feb 2012 14:15 Southwell Magilini 7/2 VCBet Drops back to her favoured 5 furlongs today and also down in class. Together with the addition of blinkers will hopefully ensure that Magilini collects her first victory. David Barron has a good record on the all weather particularly here at Southwell and jockey Lee Newman is very expereinced on this course. Drawn in stall 1 should also help

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 7th Feb 2012 4.15 Southwell - 1pt win Pink Evie @ 9/1 (Bet365) If Gay Kelloway's charge can reproduce the form of her latest run today, now switched to the fibresand for her handicap debut, she may well be well-treated here. She struggled a bit on her debut over 6f, but it wasn't a terrible effort in a race that did at least work out at the moderate level. She couldn't produce anything next time out. The race was strong for the level, but still, being beaten as far as she was, was not particularly encouraging. However, she shaped much better last time when staying on over a mile at Wolverhampton at huge odds. She was only beaten 6 1/2l in 5th, in a race that worked out well. The winner was rated 70, with the 2nd horse slamming a 70-rated rival next time out. The third, beaten over 5l, beat a nice type next time, and the 4th was rated 70 and ran well next time out. Therefore, it appears that my selection ran to a higher mark than 55, or at least is very capable of winning off this mark with a similar run. She sneaks into this 0-55 maiden handicap and typically it is a very weak affair. She seemed to really improve for the tongue-tie last time out and that stays on here. Kelloway's horses have been running well recently and this looks an ideal opportunity for another winner at a nice price.

[corky]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 7th Feb 2012 1630 wolverhampton gabriel king 1 pt win 11/10 bet365 course and distance winner and step up to 1mile 1 furlong should help reverse the places with luctor embargo,race run to suit should see hanagan get into the winners enclosure

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 7th Feb 2012 LUCTOR EMERGO 4.30 Wolverhampton. 1 point win. Won well last time and could actually improve again. If that's the case he can win again. Weighted to suggest he needs to find a pound or two, but in form and more than capable. Should be 1st or 2nd and the odds select a value win bet. 11/4 William Hill BOG

[wafer]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 7th Feb 2012 4:45 Stop On @ Southwell - Reason to follow

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 7th Feb 2012 Trachonitis 4.45 South. 0.5 points each way.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 7th Feb 2012

Trachonitis 4.45 South. 0.5 points each way.

Been off the track for quite a time, but that will see him back refreshed and with no trip and surface problems, he's capable of going close. Looks to be going better than he is most times, but if he goes as well as he can, then he can defy what appear to be big odds. 20/1 Skybet (bog)

[wafer]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 7th Feb 2012 Hasn't ran since last Febuary and before that was off the course for over 2 years.Fell on last outing over hurdles and the return to the flat may help as will being 16lb lower that it was last time seen on the all weather.Jockey Tony Hamilton hasn't had a winner this year yet but did have a great profit here last year at Southwell of +70.75.Stable better known for their jumps horses but this could squeak a place at a nice price if going well. 0.5e/w @ 66/1 VCBet