All-weather racing - does the draw matter?

[fintron]

Do you give much importance to the draw on the all-weather? Do you start your study by looking at those drawn low or do you look for horses that interest you on form first and then look at their draw lastly, downing stakes if poorly drawn and upping stakes if well drawn? Is a draw bias stronger at certain tracks more than others? Or do you adopt the mentality that you cannot predict exactly how races will pan out, despite how things will look on paper, and instead put faith in the jockey on your selection to take the best course during the race and adapt and respond to any situations that may emerge?

[fintron]

Re: All-weather racing - does the draw matter? I think in recent months I've personally adopted the last mentality - putting faith in the jockeys and hoping that things work themselves out regardless of the draw, but a few times in the last few weeks Ive ended up backing losers that have been wide drawn in small fields, but still forced to race wide (often keenly) and have got going all to late when getting into the straight. Does the lower standard of jockeys on the AW (plenty of apprentice riders) mean you are often better off backing the best jockeys in the race, that have the best clocks in their heads, that will react to situations? All of the AW trips (with the exception of 5f at Southwell) are around a bend too - does that mean, because they are going round a bend, the draw is more important than on turf, where many tracks have straight races even up to 1m?

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: All-weather racing - does the draw matter? I don't like high draws at Wolverhampton, especially. Won't be totally put off by draws if I think the horse has a great chance otherwise, but I wouldn't back many sprinters coming from a wide stall.

[mileni4uk]

Re: All-weather racing - does the draw matter? Jockeys are the most important thing on the All Weather for me, plain and simple. Someone like Steve Drowne or Joe Fanning can come from an outside draw, take it up, put them to sleep and win on the biggest dog in the race :)

[Trotter]

Re: All-weather racing - does the draw matter? I always think it 'ought' to matter, but in practise I don't pay much attention to it I tend not to look at it at all for races over 6 furlongs and and for sprints I'll perhaps look mat it to make a final decision between a shorlist of two or three, but it wouldn't be the most important factor in deciding between the horses on the shortlist Where i might use it is to put a line through front runners drawn wide as i reckon they use up too much energy getting across (but they still sometimes win !)

[Aidymac]

Re: All-weather racing - does the draw matter?

Jockeys are the most important thing on the All Weather for me' date=' plain and simple. Someone like Steve Drowne or Joe Fanning can come from an outside draw, take it up, put them to sleep and win on the biggest dog in the race :)[/quote'] Demoiselle Bond an example. :cow Agree with Mileni, i think its the jockeys more than the draw.. Look at Luke Morris, doesnt matter where he is drawn, he knows where to put the horse in the correct position.. I feel there is a very small draw bias on the all-weather, i think on the turf flat in big field handicaps, the draw is far more important, because the ground on either side of the track becomes a major factor, the ground on AW stays the same for all, so comes down to jockey ability imo.

[robertob]

Re: All-weather racing - does the draw matter? Interesting question, fintron. Personally I don't care too much about the draw on the All-Weather, except I consider to back a front-runner or horse that definitely needs to race prominently. But I don't think it's that important on AW, actually. I made some analysing about the draw bias for Wolverhampton and Kempton recently and found out that the draw bias is not that strong as I would have expected it, particularly over certain distances. But there was one really surprising result for the 8 furlongs at Kempton. My statistics showed that a wide draw in fields between 8-12 runners were barely a disadvantage over that distance. Far from it. It was even quite the opposite. Well, my statistic is not very representative, I only analysed the races of the last four or five month, but it was interesting to see anyway.

[fintron]

Re: All-weather racing - does the draw matter? Interesting replies guys, cheers. It seems then, that the general consensus so far is that the draw isn't really that important and if you like a horse drawn wide, stick with it, especially if its got Luke Morris or Joe Fanning on!

[RussP]

Re: All-weather racing - does the draw matter? It depends on how you view the question. Of course it matters. But it doesn't make the same difference it makes at Chester, for example. I agree that horses can win from any draw on the AW but, to me, early position is often key so having the best of the draw and being able to put your horse in the right place is important. Would a high draw put me off? Certainly not but I'm more confident with a better draw.

[The Saint]

Re: All-weather racing - does the draw matter? Personally, I will definatley consider the draw but a long way behind the horses ability which is always the most important thing. If I have got a decision on a bet to make then the draw will then become more important.... Not overly bothered in small fields or if the horse in question needs dropping out. Think someone else said - if I'm on a horse that likes or needs to lead - a low draw will definatly increase confidence. Takes massive discipline to pass based on the draw and it is something I struggle with on occasion - particularly when they then go and win!!

[Trotter]

Re: All-weather racing - does the draw matter? Talking of the draw..........does anyone else think it's a bit poor that the RP don't show the draw position on the horse form pages The Life does and it's quite useful to sort the horses runs by track (something else you can't do on the Post !) and just to look down the list at runs over todays track/trip and see where the horses finished from different draw positions - see if there's any correlation or if it's random

[Trotter]

Re: All-weather racing - does the draw matter? The 5F at southwell is a law unto itself I still think horses drawn high have a big disadvantage. This would be logical becasue the machines that rake the track gradually shuffle the fibresand towards the edges so it's deeper against the rails. For the same reason on the round course you rarely see front runners hugging the far rail - they come out into the centre of the track Every now and then they appear to hand rake the track to 're-balance' it which would involve hand raking the fibresand from the rails back to the centre to even it out a bit When horses do win from the near rail they tend to edge out towards the centre so early pace types can do it if they get clear of the horses outside them, but on the whole I always look for low draws at 5F As well as the draw though it's impossible to get a handle on the 'going' on this track via race times. You get Ghostwing recording a group one speed fig in a class 5 handicap then a couple of weeks later all the top Southwell 5F horses are running in a class 2 handicap and the winner posts a tine 40 lbs lower than Ghostwing It's a nightmare !

[RussP]

Re: All-weather racing - does the draw matter?

Talking of the draw..........does anyone else think it's a bit poor that the RP don't show the draw position on the horse form pages The Life does and it's quite useful to sort the horses runs by track (something else you can't do on the Post !) and just to look down the list at runs over todays track/trip and see where the horses finished from different draw positions - see if there's any correlation or if it's random

Agree that it's poor, Trotter. What's more, I think the RP site is great and, aside from this and the days since last run 'easy view', has pretty much everything you need to know. Would love them to add these extra 2 bits of information.

[chris34]

Re: All-weather racing - does the draw matter? For me draw isnt overly important in middle distance race and staying races, perhaps slightly more important sprint trips. I also wouldnt want to be back a horse coming from a wide draw if it was a front runner but wasnt the only front runner in the field. Draw little more important in big field sprints again even more so with prominent runners. And like other have mentioned jockeyship around the AW scene is well worth noting for me Raul De Silva is a decent apprentice on the other hand havnt been overly impressed with Jemma Marshall or Nicole Nordblad both getting plenty of rides this winter but look worth avoiding as much as possible in my opinion!

[fintron]

Re: All-weather racing - does the draw matter?

The 5F at southwell is a law unto itself I still think horses drawn high have a big disadvantage. This would be logical becasue the machines that rake the track gradually shuffle the fibresand towards the edges so it's deeper against the rails. For the same reason on the round course you rarely see front runners hugging the far rail - they come out into the centre of the track Every now and then they appear to hand rake the track to 're-balance' it which would involve hand raking the fibresand from the rails back to the centre to even it out a bit When horses do win from the near rail they tend to edge out towards the centre so early pace types can do it if they get clear of the horses outside them, but on the whole I always look for low draws at 5F As well as the draw though it's impossible to get a handle on the 'going' on this track via race times. You get Ghostwing recording a group one speed fig in a class 5 handicap then a couple of weeks later all the top Southwell 5F horses are running in a class 2 handicap and the winner posts a tine 40 lbs lower than Ghostwing It's a nightmare !

Apparently they haven't been harrowing the track as much as Southwell this winter (heard this from someone who regularly works on course but Hugh Taylor also mentioned it on his Twitter a few weeks back before going on one of his many holidays - he has more bloody holidays than Thomson's that guy!!!) because there has been less frost this winter, and I think the surface is riding a bit differently this year. Scott Dixon commented on it the other week in that Even Stevens race, saying that they'd had a little bit of rain and that it didn't suit him as much. If it means the track rides closer to polytrack than normal then it might explain why horses like Woolfall Sovereign are able to win first time up on the surface with no course form? I wondered why Shawkantango ran such a stinker a couple of weeks back and maybe, if the track is riding differently, it might go some way to explaining why? There was a massive tail win that day Ghostwing broke the track record, something else Scott Dixon mentioned on hide ATR interview I think (must have been talking about how the Cadeuax Pearl form had worked out iirc).

[Dtrains]

Re: All-weather racing - does the draw matter? Only take notice of draw over the 7f at wolvs where is drawn on the outside when there is 13 runners it is horrific the only option is too hold the horse up with the bend coming up so quickly, also wide drawn horses over the 5f at kempton are at a massive disadvantage, front runners rule the inner course at kempton it's to sharp the final bend poorly designed in my opinion front runners can kick for home while other horses are still handling the bend.

[stewartd14]

Re: All-weather racing - does the draw matter? I think the draw definitely matters, but I actually think the most important thing is having a jockey who knows how the track is riding. The number of "professional" jockeys who try and sneak up the inside at Lingfield/Wolves, or hug the inside rail at Southwell is embarassing. A low draw is only advantageous if you have a jockey on board who isn't going to stick rigidly to the inside when turning for home. As for Kempton, I actually think the better part of the track is wider out - dont like the horses that go for the cutaway, although the bias is less significant than those of Wolves or Southwell.

[Trotter]

Re: All-weather racing - does the draw matter?

As for Kempton, I actually think the better part of the track is wider out - dont like the horses that go for the cutaway, although the bias is less significant than those of Wolves or Southwell.

I think the problem with the cutaway at Kempton is that there's still two furlongs to go How many times do you see a horse make rapid headway on the inside at the cutaway, hit the front, then get swamped by horses on the outside I reckon the effort of being hard ridden to use the cutaway means they have nothing left for the finish particularly if they've been held up at the rear and sluiced right through the field on the inside.

[cpo]

Re: All-weather racing - does the draw matter?

Only take notice of draw over the 7f at wolvs where is drawn on the outside when there is 13 runners it is horrific the only option is too hold the horse up with the bend coming up so quickly' date=' also wide drawn horses over the 5f at kempton are at a massive disadvantage, front runners rule the inner course at kempton it's to sharp the final bend poorly designed in my opinion front runners can kick for home while other horses are still handling the bend.[/quote'] Great Example there of poorly drawn horse in a 7f race at Wolves. Double Carpet raced 4 wide throughout and around the bends I don't think he could have come any wider than he did. He looked to be about 10 horses wide coming around the bend and probably raced an extra furlong than all the other horses. A truly horrible ride from the utter useless Fergus Sweeney. Yes I am talking through the pocket.

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: All-weather racing - does the draw matter?

Great Example there of poorly drawn horse in a 7f race at Wolves. Double Carpet raced 4 wide throughout and around the bends I don't think he could have come any wider than he did. He looked to be about 10 horses wide coming around the bend and probably raced an extra furlong than all the other horses. A truly horrible ride from the utter useless Fergus Sweeney. Yes I am talking through the pocket.

That's the jockey though, not the draw. The first 2 were drawn wider

[cpo]

Re: All-weather racing - does the draw matter? Yeh I should have said good example of a crap jockey giving his horse absolutely no chance