fintron Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 What is the best piece of advice you can give fellow PL'ers to help keep them on track to make a profit in 2012? Mine would be to develop a set of rigid staking rules and stick to them. I suppose this is where record keeping comes in, because if you have a set of data behind you, it is possible to identify areas where you do best, for example, Group races on the flat over 5-8f. You might also see that following horses below odds on failed to yield a long term profit and that the outside chances are also showing a loss. By then writing down half a dozen strict betting criteria, perhaps on a little piece of paper to keep in your wallet, you then have a constant reminder, whether betting at home, at work, in a shop or on course, of the types of bets you should and shouldn't be placing. I acknowledge that in order to beat the bookies long term you have to be constantly on your toes and prepared to adapt to changes, otherwise you get left behind, but I think many punters, myself included, can lose focus at times, including when winning, when there is a temptation to play up winnings while in the middle of a purple patch, or bending selection criteria to try halt a losing run. I once came across a slogan, 'bet with method and win' and I think the most successful punters aren't those that pick the most winners or those most adept are identifying out-of-line prices, its the ones with the best mindset, the best discliplined. My 'bit of paper in the wallet' is something I hope will help me in this respect and keep my betting in focus for 2012. Whats the best piece of advice you can share on the forum? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Re: What is your best piece of advice for profitable punting in 2012? My advice is: Never back something that Aidymac has backed.. If you do this, that is half way to your betting stardom! :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kithanga Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Re: What is your best piece of advice for profitable punting in 2012? Focus and consistency From my experience of the last couple of years it would be to identify your strengths (Fintron covers that) and then focus on those races. There's so much racing and opportunities that I think focus is essential. Without it I find that I waste to much time trying to find the best race to bet in and can't see the wood for the trees. I'd also say that consistant staking is essential. For the first time this year I've also got my equivilant of Fintron's little piece of paper. A worksheet on my results spreadsheet that outlines my approach and staking. My one objective is to stick to those and let the results and variance play out over the year. Easier said than done I know. K Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Re: What is your best piece of advice for profitable punting in 2012? I have always struggled with my betting discipline so this year I hope to sort that out. Don't chase your losses, there's always tomorrow or the next day! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Re: What is your best piece of advice for profitable punting in 2012? One word - Discipline You don't have to bet every day, and if you are unsure, leave it alone! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Re: What is your best piece of advice for profitable punting in 2012? My one peice of advice would be to try and watch everything you can. I know some dont have the racing channels but with the technology these days and the replays on the sporting life and ATR sites there is no reason why you cant sit and watch the races if you want to take the game seriously. Its all free! The form book can be misleading if you havnt seen the race, the going descriptions are a bit off the mark I find too, make notes and build up a list of horses if you dont have a set type of race. If you are short on time just watch a particular type of contest, whether that be novices, hurdles, chases, sprints etc.... If you can get a good grasp of any discilpine it will help to read the races much more quickly. Might sound silly but try watching the closing stages of races back at x2 on the Sky Plus, its very revealing at times. Good luck:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Re: What is your best piece of advice for profitable punting in 2012? Enjoy your racing let it be pleasurable if its more of a chore to do the studying of form etc, etc take a break from it. Bet with a saved bank or money you have left after all the bills, family etc is sorted. Its good to look at a race and work it out yourself yes use the basic form guide ie past runs , trainer jockey etc but before/without the betting, comments from papers, tips, selections other source etc. you may find horse at value/big price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Re: What is your best piece of advice for profitable punting in 2012? stick with what you know, dont have to try new things other than keeping up with progress. keep records, analyse as others have said i need to avoid bets for the sake of it and use the trends more which i know can be profitable at decent prices also dont be afraid to back an outsider, favs only win 28% of races so dont think they will win based on stats alone Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Re: What is your best piece of advice for profitable punting in 2012? Must agree with pretty much everything that's been posted, especially regarding discipline, keeping records & watching as much as you can. Without doubt, it's a combination of all factors as great discipline is no good if you can't pick your nose, let alone a winner, whilst form study / watching racing bears no fruit if you lose your discipline and have those "fun" bets, just for interest. I'll also add in to the mix, specialization. I realised a long time ago that I could only make money in handicaps, and even then, only flat handicaps. I'd even take it a step further and say that my success has come in races from 7f up to 1m3f in double figure fields, 0-65+ in class. With so much racing, it's a case of where to start so if you can specialise and eliminate 90% of the days racing, then so much the better. Add to that the fact you end up with deep knowledge on a smaller number of horses, it's another positive. Just don't be fooled into thinking that 1 or 2 'pieces of advice' will make your profitable, and don't ever rest of your laurels thinking you have the game cracked....you ain't! I have a list (in my wallet, to Fin's point) of 20 basic rules that I follow with every bet I make. Good luck & happy punting in 2012:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Re: What is your best piece of advice for profitable punting in 2012? Another plus for the punters nowadays is that bookies price up racing the night before and some of these are BOG bookies. With AW you don't have to worry about the changing weather so do your study early and get on early some amazing price available the night before and if you so wish layoff at a profit if/when price drop the next day or sit tight if they drift and win you get the bigger price and the options are their more times than you would think we as punters have never had it so good! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Re: What is your best piece of advice for profitable punting in 2012? DON'T pay any attention in what a trainer has to say, most info cant be trusted. Stick with a Jockey who is in form, stick with a yard that is in form. Follow big name jockeys making a long trip for one ride - then watch the market on his / her ride. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Re: What is your best piece of advice for profitable punting in 2012? My advice is: Never back something that Aidymac has backed.. If you do this, that is half way to your betting stardom! :) Not true fella, sounds like you are a wee bit down on your luck, but come on, your better than that. A few nice wins and you will have your Swagger back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twinny Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Re: What is your best piece of advice for profitable punting in 2012? discipline is a must,sensable betting,following proven systems and proven tipsters with percentage of bank betting, useing different banks for different systems Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kev2oo9 Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Re: What is your best piece of advice for profitable punting in 2012? Stick to what you know and don't be swayed. Even if you win big , don't stray away from regular staking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertob Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Re: What is your best piece of advice for profitable punting in 2012? Discipline is very much the magic word. Waiting for the right chances... that's what all about is. Save the money for bets where you're confident in regardless of the price. If you're confident in the chance of a longshot, say @ 16/1 but you feel it's rather a 6/1 chance, then bet on that horse as it would be a 6/1 chance. Don't bet odds-on. Sure, that's a matter of opinion but I think money does not lie on the street. And think three or four times before betting heavily on a short priced favourite anyway. This money can be probably better used for four or five value bets for horses at higher odds. And what is very important IMO: Watch as much racing as possible. As BH said it's available for free and a very useful tool. It's amazing how many eye-catchers are possible to find via video analysing - and therefore good bets next time out. I have to admit that I don't stick always to my own advices, unfortunately. I still had a super year in 2011 but not as good as it could have been if I would have avoided many stupid bets. It sounds easy to stay disciplined but in reality it's not. I keep records of all my bets, of course, and have seen at the end of the year, that I've done really bad in backing short-priced horses. So what would be the conclusion? Don't bet on short priced horses. But what do I have done today? Backed a very short-priced favourite in a maiden! And that's it. To be always disciplined is very difficult. However to know already where you're good in and where not in terms of specialisation on certain kind of races, is a good starting point to improve the own bank as to keep up the discipline as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisman Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Re: What is your best piece of advice for profitable punting in 2012? always keep a look out for some of the very small yards.some of their returns are much better to a £1 stake than some of the more fashionable yards and they have to try hard to place horses in the right races. One definately on my radar is Anthony Honeyball. I completely agree about discipline-much harder than you would think but also adaptability and flexibility is important as well. I don't have the figures to hand but I recall reading about a study on Betfair SP's which looked at the strike rates for favourites who drifted or shortened and there was little difference in the ratio of winners between the two groups. One thing I'm definately doing more of is laying horses especially if I've found something which I think could give a very short and well tipped favourite something to think about especially in beginner/novice chases.there's every chance that the odds will shorten so much that you have a big potential profit but small downside.One thing I'm struggling with at the moment is my main wins recently have been on the AW especially Southwell but I find it pretty tedious stuff, conversely I love the long distance NH chases but the results havn't been as good! Perhaps a break from the AW is in order! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Petersson1984 Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Re: What is your best piece of advice for profitable punting in 2012? Limit yourself. If you pick to many, you´ll just end up whit a lot of losers. Try to find the real value. Have some criteria, the horse must contain. If the chosen horse, fails any one of them, dont back it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.Wilson Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Re: What is your best piece of advice for profitable punting in 2012? I always remember a good friend of mine Mark Owen Banks who helped me learn the basics in Horse Racing - If everyone had help like that then it would be a better place, although to be fair there wasn't forums around like this. He once told me, "I'd rather miss a winner than back a loser" Till this day I've probably underestimated the true worth of that saying and it's something I'm going to employ during the Turf season which will help me aim to reach my target of under 100 Bets during the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted January 4, 2012 Author Share Posted January 4, 2012 Re: What is your best piece of advice for profitable punting in 2012? The best advice ANYONE can give is ignore ANYTHING said by Mr.Wilson. The boy couldn't tip water out of a cup, let alone profitable bets. THAT right there is far more important than any staking plan or how you come by your selections. Id rather stick a pin in the paper blind than listen to Mr.Wilson A bit harsh Keith! What are we now, 4 days into the new year? I've already broken one of my rules in backing one in an egg and spoon race at Southwell yesterday - drawn in by a value price. :spank Gonna have a day off today as punishment! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrOwen Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Re: What is your best piece of advice for profitable punting in 2012? I for one would like gather as much knowledge. Can you share some of the basics Mr.Wilson for the knowledge bank? No worries if it's something you would like to keep :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
who?me? Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Re: What is your best piece of advice for profitable punting in 2012? stick with a yard that is in form. As well as using it to follow certain horses, I use Nag Me to alert me to when in-form trainers have runners. Have followed John Ferguson this way over the past few months and had several winners as a result. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
who?me? Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Re: What is your best piece of advice for profitable punting in 2012? What are we now, 4 days into the new year? I've already broken one of my rules in backing one in an egg and spoon race at Southwell yesterday - drawn in by a value price. :spank Gonna have a day off today as punishment! Does that mean that if you break 2 rules you have 2 days off etc?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Re: What is your best piece of advice for profitable punting in 2012? Any chance we can stick with the thread topic :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
who?me? Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Re: What is your best piece of advice for profitable punting in 2012? Any chance we can stick with the thread topic :ok I was trying to get it back on track. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Re: What is your best piece of advice for profitable punting in 2012? Cleaned up the thread, think the kids had broke in again:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Re: What is your best piece of advice for profitable punting in 2012? As well as using it to follow certain horses, I use Nag Me to alert me to when in-form trainers have runners. Have followed John Ferguson this way over the past few months and had several winners as a result. :ok Think John Ferguson is definitely a trainer to follow given his connections to Sheik Mo. His strike rate so far is pretty impressive especially with his hurdlers, think its around 38%. Good level stakes profits with his NHF runners and his his hurdlers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted January 5, 2012 Author Share Posted January 5, 2012 Re: What is your best piece of advice for profitable punting in 2012? Word was that Ferguson had a good one lined up this week. When I checked his entries he had Asaid at Huntingdon yesterday, then he's got Memorabilia today as well as an interesting son on Motivator in the bumper, that cost 120,000. It now looks like Asaid was the one as he won at 4/1 yesterday, beating One Lucky Lady the jolly. Was I on? Nope. Typical the day you choose to take off, one goes in. Sods law! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Re: What is your best piece of advice for profitable punting in 2012? New Years Eve Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted January 5, 2012 Author Share Posted January 5, 2012 Re: What is your best piece of advice for profitable punting in 2012? New Years Eve Ah. 8/11 best price now, think i'll give it a miss - despite the breeding and hefty purchase price. I wonder which Memorabilia turns up, the one that ran so well on debut or the one that bombed at Wetherby last time. Wonder if it can be put down to the ground last time? He's 5/2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Re: What is your best piece of advice for profitable punting in 2012? Been waiting for it to come out for a while but gonna leave it at that price too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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