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Short Priced Favs

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Re: Short Priced Favs Johnny Owen 13.05 Font. 18 Pt Win @ 2.38 Anay Turge has been knocking hard on the door of late and should make his presence felt again, while Dontsayathing went very close off a 2lb higher mark when last seen in November 2009 and would be a serious threat if fully wound up on his return. However, JOHNNY OWEN has found a sudden lease of life and after defying a 7lb penalty to complete a double at Hereford on Sunday, a repeat performance should suffice in this company despite carrying a 14lb penalty on this occasion.

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Re: Short Priced Favs Johnny Owen Lost Start Bank 100 Bets 47 Wins 30 Total Bet 546 Total Won 521.78 Loss 24.22 Strike Rate 63.8% Current Bank 75.68 Problema Tic 14.20 Huntingdon 19 pt Win Another novices' event which both Nicky Henderson and Barry Geraghty landed 12 months ago and the 129-rated PROBLEMA TIC looks likely to make it back-to-back victories for the Lambourn-based handler. The six-year-old coped well when tacking the larger obstacles for the first time at Fontwell on Boxing Day and, while forced to carry a penalty for that success, a similar level of performance should suffice.

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Re: Short Priced Favs Problema Tic Lost Start Bank 100 Bets 48 Wins 30 Total Bet 565 Total Won 521.78 Loss 43.22 Strike Rate 62.5% Current Bank 56.78 Menorah 13.05 Kempton 20 Pt Win @ 1.5 (BOG) MENORAH's reappearance run at Exeter didn't quite go to plan as he unseated his rider two out when well in command, but compensation was landed at Taunton last time when surviving a last-fence blunder to open his chase account at the second attempt. This will be anything but a stroll in the park for Philip Hobbs' charge as Kumbeshwar would be dangerous if granted a soft lead and Alasi looked useful when winning on the bridle at Ludlow latest. However, the selection, a Supreme Novices Hurdle winner and Champion Hurdle fifth, has the class to prevail.

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Re: Short Priced Favs Double Handful 16.10 Plumpton 20Pt win @ 1.5 (BOG) JODAWES has performed well in this sphere so far, having been placed in all three of his starts over timber, but this looks a tough ask under top weight on his handicap debut and, for that reason, DOUBLE HANDFUL is preferred. The six-year-old relished the drop in trip when shedding his maiden status over 2m1f at Taunton recently and, having scored by a comfortable eight lengths on that occasion, he is taken to defy this 7lb penalty. Forest Rhythm completes the shortlist.

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Re: Short Priced Favs Howaboutnow 16.10 Ayr 20 Pt Win @ 1.44 (BOG) Young Palm takes the eye on paper and is certainly bred to have the requisite speed for this test. Market confidence behind his chance on debut would have to be respected but HOWABOUTNOW ticks plenty of boxes and rates the one to beat. A winner between the flags, Donald McCain's charge made a most impressive racecourse debut at Bangor last month, scoring in effortless style, and he looks up to defying a penalty. Perth third Blazin White Face is also respected receiving weight all round

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Re: Short Priced Favs Double Handful Won @ 1.5 Returns 30.00 Howaboutnow 2nd Start Bank 100 Bets 51 Wins 32 Total Bet 625 Total Won 583.18 Loss 41.92 Strike Rate 62.7% Current Bank 58.08

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Re: Short Priced Favs Vulcanite 14.15 Southwell 21 Pt Win @ 1.2 (BOG) Look no further than VULCANITE following his eye-catching debut run at Kempton last month. Charlie Longsdon's gelding served it up to the useful Tetlami on that occasion and, if given the chance to settle into the race today, the well-bred son of Dubawi should get off the mark at the second time of asking. Vivre Libre and Spiekeroog have both had two attempts and, while they shouldn't be completely ruled out, they may be forced to fight it out for minor money.

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Re: Short Priced Favs Kid cassidy 15.10 Lud 21 Pt Win @ 1.40 (BOG) KID CASSIDY suffered a hefty fall at Lingfield on his chasing debut but having had time to recover, Nicky Henderson's two-time hurdle winner is expected to take some stopping. When scoring over timber at the Punchestown Festival last May, the gelded son of Beneficial looked a very smart individual and one with plenty of scope for improvement now tackling fences. Silver Gypsy represents the main danger for the in-form partnership of Donald McCain and Jason Maguire, but she might be forced to fight it out for minor money with The Black Baron.

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Re: Short Priced Favs Cristal Bonus 13.45 Chepstow 21Pt Win @ 1.44 (BOG) CRISTAL BONUS failed to make an impact in a couple of Grade 2 hurdle events when trained by Evan Williams last winter but he was a multiple winner in France and having since switched to the champion trainer, he could be hard to beat if taking to fences at the first time of asking this afternoon.

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Re: Short Priced Favs Balder Success 13.30 Ascot 21Pt Win @ 1.22 It's hard to look past BALDER SUCCESS. Bought into the Alan King stable after landing a valuable hurdle race at Auteuil in October, he couldn't have done the job any easier on his UK debut at Plumpton some three weeks ago and looks quite capable of defying a penalty.

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Re: Short Priced Favs Chartreux 15.45 Towcester 21 Pt Win @ 1.67 (BOG) CHARTREUX held a three-length advantage when crashing out at the 14th fence on his chasing debut at Hereford earlier this month and, providing that nasty experience hasn't dented his confidence, he should make amends. Universal Soldier, a two-time hurdle winner, looks the only possible danger on his first start for Charlie Longsdon, while How Nice could prove best of the remaining trio.

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Re: Short Priced Favs Ashbrittle 15.15 Wetherby 22 pt win @ 1.83 (BOG) ASHBRITTLE stepped up on a promising debut over hurdles when gamely beating a useful sort from the Evan Williams stable at Lingfield earlier this month (first pair pulled 21 lengths clear of the third) and, with further improvement on the cards, he can defy the extra weight to complete the double.

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Re: Short Priced Favs Crystal Rock 15.10 Leicester 23Pt Win @ 2.10Nicky Henderson saddled the winner of this race 12 months ago and he appears to have another big chance with CRYSTAL ROCK. This half-brother to Grade 2 winning chaser Jack The Giant was a model of consistency of the smaller obstacles (reached the frame in ten of his 13 starts) and can make a successful switch to fences.

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Re: Short Priced Favs Maes Choice 13.40 Muss. 24Pt Win @ 1.57 (BOG) Maes Choice confirmed the promise shown between the flags when running out an easy winner on her hurdling debut over 2m5f at Downpatrick last month and, despite having to shoulder a penalty, she could prove a cut above these rivals.

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Re: Short Priced Favs Update for the last three days Ashbrittle 2nd Crystal Rock Lost Maes Choice Won @ 1.8 Returns 43.20 Start Bank 100 Bets 59 Wins 37 Total Bet 799 Total Won 739.57 Loss 59.43 Strike Rate 62.7% Current Bank 40.57

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Re: Short Priced Favs Pacha Du Polder 14.55 War 24Pt Win @ 1.5 (BOG) Last year's winner, The Minack, has since gone on to better things for Paul Nicholls and it would appear that the champion trainer is again using this a stepping stone for another chaser with plenty of potential. The 141-rated PACHA DU POLDER made too many mistakes when contesting a Grade 2 at Ascot last time but he made a good impression when edging out the useful Eradicate in a ding-dong battle on his UK bow at Sandown in November and could be tough to beat here.

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Re: Short Priced Favs Sir Du Bearn 15.00 Font. 23 Pt Win @ 1.4 (BOG) Paul Nicholls scored with a short odds-on favourite in this race 12 months ago and should do the same this time around with SIR DU BEARN. The point-to-point scorer wasn't disgraced on his debut under Rules when behind the useful Nadiya De La Vega in a novices' chase at Warwick and, while out of his depth off 128 in a handicap hurdle at Ascot latest, he should fair better now eased in class and back over fences.

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    • 4.25 Curragh: Fairyland 0.5pts e/w @ 12.00 with bet365. Thank you. 
    • Monaco GP So Hamilton pulls a rabbit out of the hat and grabs pole for yet another Mercedes front row lockout. Lewis is an unbackable 1/3 shot to lead all of the way and this 78 lap traffic jam. I feel for Bottas as he was going quickest for most of the session and now finds himself stuck behind the best driver at Monaco in the race. He's a 4/1 shot to get past Hamilton so basically your betting 4/1 for Hamilton to retire?? Max Verstappen is now a 6/1 shot but is as short as 4/11 to finish on the podium so maybe the value has swung towards Vettel in this market who is a tempting 6/5 shot. H surely cant have another bad day like today, can he?? I'm struggling to see how Pierre Gasly is 4/7 to finish in the top 6 when Riccardo is 11/8, Gasly has a 3 place grid penalty to starts 8th while the Aussie starts 6th?? Leclerc who starts 16th is 13/8, that will be worth seeing if he finishes 6th!!! Lance Stroll struggles here and his car is pretty slow so backing him at 2/1 not to finish is worth a small bet to keep me interested in what could be a dull race. Bets Verstappen 7/2 Under 15.5 5/6 Vettel Top 3 6/5 Ricciardo Top 6 11/8 Stroll DNF 2/1  
    • Well done Steve, your first win in the Cup since May 2017 Unlucky Ken mate.      
    • Albert Ramos to beat Laslo Djere at 2.15 with betsson It's all about probability in this one and I rate the probability of this happening higher than the current odds of 2.15. Albert has been in the quarterfinal of Roland Garros before and knows how to play in grand slam events while Laslo is 1-6 in GS maindraw matches. I expect Laslo to run into some major difficulties against Albert. They met once before and Albert won 2-1 back in 2017 in Marrakech. Peter Gojowczyk to beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at 4.50 with Unibet Peter has beaten J-W before and most importantly on indoor hard and even in a 5 set Davis cup thriller by 8-6 in the decider. I think Peter could have enough to win this again even though his form isn't the best but neither is J-Ws form and I think clay suits Peter a little bit better and he's got the matchup advantage and knows how to find break opportunities in the J-W serve. Better chances of an upset than the odds suggest at least. Sveta Kuznetsova to beat (-1.5 sets) Kristina Kucova at 2.04 with Unibet Sveta could not have asked for a more favorable first round opponent. Kristina hates clay and she's never won a set in Roland Garros maindraw and her last two visits have been first round straight sets losses to Shuai Zhang 6-0 7-5 and Sam Stosur 7-5 6-0. She's done well to reach the maindraw from qualification but her opponents weren't really hard at all but she still had problems in last match against Katie Swan but won in a decider. Sveta should have many opportunities to break and could win in straight sets. Kateryna Kozlova to beat Bernarda Pera at 2.35 with Unibet Kateryna most famously knocked out reigning champion Jelena Ostapenko in straight sets last season in Roland Garros first round and later lost in second round. Bernarda Pera also won her first round match in Roland Garros last season and she beat Elena Vesnina but I don't rate that performance at all and she later also lost in second round. Anyway I don't see what makes Kateryna the underdog in this one. Kateryna has a higher ranking now (66), close to her career high 62 and I rate beating Jelena Ostapenko in straight sets higher than Bernarda beating a Elena Vesnina with retirement in her sights. Should be more  even odds here I think.  Roger Federer to beat (-6.5) Lorenzo Sonego at 1.97 with betsson I think I have to rate Rogers chances pretty high here. I don't think Lorenzo will get many looks into Rogers serve but Roger should find ways to find breakpoint opportunities on the Lorenzo serve. It might take some time but once Roger gets a break it could be a rout. This could even be covered in 4 sets.
    • I agree about Millman. He must have a chance to at least take a set as Sascha is all over the place right now. He's just won Geneva but it was such a struggle - apart from his first round every match was three sets and he only got the better of Jarry in a final set tie-break which it looked as though he did his best to throw away after building a big lead. It would be so ironic if this is to be the tournament where Sascha makes his grand slam breakthrough when his form is just not there after the last few years where he's been playing well but couldn't translate that into deep runs in the slams. I certainly wont be backing him and it'd be a brave person that did based on his season so far.
    • 2.10 Font - Demon Fou - win at 7/4 bog bet365
    • Few personal opinions apart from the picks above. I agree Millman is capable of an upset of Zverev.I'll be taking a side one on this one. I was looking forward to take on Cameron Norrie before Kyrgios pulled out.No one believes he's really ill n he hates clay season with a passion. Weren't he to take on a serious player in the 2nd round I'd have considered him to go on a bit further. Mikael Ymer will be decent n I expect him to win his first match art RG.I'd stay away from Jarry Vs DelPo.Most unpredicted 1st round match. Kohlschreiber is a formidable opponent especially this year but I think there's value in taking R Haase against him based on motivation.Also Lloyd Harris prefers hard courts to clay I don't see why he's the favourite to beat Rosol who despite being poor in form on a good day is decent on Clay.Thoughts @South_African_Punter
    • 3.15 fontwell risk and roll my win bet @ 1.73                  6.00 curragh hazraw my win bet @ 2.50                  4.25 curragh iridessa @12/1 my e/w bet                   5.00 curragh trading point @12/1 my e/w bet
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