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Short Priced Favs

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Re: Short Priced Favs Swincombe Flame NR For today Kazlian 12.40 Ffos Las 15Pt Win No EMP It is very tough to oppose KAZLIAN in this juvenile hurdle and, while he failed to score at odds of 1-2 on his British debut at Market Rasen, David Pipe's charge will have learned a lot from that outing and improvement should be forthcoming.

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Re: Short Priced Favs Kazlian Won @ 1.25 returns 18.75 Start Bank 100 Bets 30 Wins 18 Total Bet 237 Total Won 180.09 Loss 56.09 Strike Rate 60% Current Bank 43.91 Charminster 12.50 Sedgefield 15Pt Win @ 1.73 (BOG) An interesting beginners chase for punters to work out but preference is for the returning CHARMINSTER. The Donald McCain representative boasts some eye-catching novice form over timber, most notably when second behind the subsequent Listed hurdler winner Whoops A Daisy at Hereford in January, and with winning C&D form in the book, he may take some stopping.

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Re: Short Priced Favs Charminster 2nd Start Bank 100 Bets 31 Wins 18 Total Bet 252 Total Won 180.09 Loss 71.91 Strike Rate 58% Current Bank 28.09 Tornado In Milan 3.55 Ffos Las 16 Pt Win @ 1.29 (BOG)

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Re: Short Priced Favs Tornado In Milan Won @ 1.29 Returns 20.64 Start Bank 100 Bets 32 Wins 19 Total Bet 268 Total Won 200.73 Loss 67.27 Strike Rate 59% Current Bank 32.73 Peddlers Cross 13.25 Kempton 16 Pt Win @ 1.67 (BOG) High-class hurdler, PEDDLERS CROSS, twice a Grade 1 winner and second in last season's Champion Hurdle, has made an exciting switch to the bigger obstacles, landing both of his starts to date in comfortable style. This is his toughest task to date but, with further improvement on the cards, he should take all the beating here.

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Re: Short Priced Favs Was away for a few days so will update. Disappointed with the way this has gone this year but will keep it going. Peddlers Cross and Belle De Fontenay both beaten. Tour D'Argent won @ 1.57 Returns 28.28 Start Bank 100 Bets 35 Wins 20 Total Bet 319 Total Won 229.01 Loss 89.99 Strike Rate 57% Current Bank 10.01 Fingal Bay 15.05 New 18 Pt Win @ 1.29 (BOG) The unbeaten FINGAL BAY has created a splendid impression and can maintain that record, stepping up to Grade 1 level for the first time. His galloping style should be well suited to this track and he can score before making his way to the Cheltenham Festival.

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Re: Short Priced Favs The Black Baron 14.40 Folk 18 Pt Win @ 2.2 (BOG) THE BLACK BARON boasts some useful form over hurdles, most notably when finishing two lengths behind You're The Top at Kempton, and likely to know his task first time over the larger obstacles, he should have the beating of these.

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Re: Short Priced Favs The Black Baron Fell Start Bank 100 Bets 37 Wins 21 Total Bet 355 Total Won 252.23 Loss 102.77 Strike Rate 56% Current Bank -2.77 Picture This 14.05 Folk 19 Pt Win @ 1.13 (BOG) A field of just two runners have declared for this beginners' chase and Paul Nicholls looks to have found an ideal opportunity for PICTURE THIS, a 144-rated hurdler, to open his account over fences on his return from a 443-day absence.

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Re: Short Priced Favs Edge of Town 13.05 Ayr 19 Pt win @ 1.2 It's hard to see beyond EDGE OF TOWN for the answer to this. Twice a winner over hurdles, he was massively impressive when scoring at Hexham on his chasing debut and a repeat performance should suffice here.

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Re: Short Priced Favs Edge of Town NR Mr Chow 13.40 South 19Pt Win @ 1.44 A 7lb penalty doesn't look enough to prevent MR CHOW completing a hat-trick over fences. He survived a last-fence blunder to score at Taunton on his chasing debut in November and followed up last month with a 20-length success over the same track and trip. With further improvement likely, he should take all the beating here.

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Re: Short Priced Favs Mr Chow Fell Start Bank 100 Bets 39 Wins 22 Total Bet 393 Total Won 274.46 Loss 118.54 Strike Rate 56% Current Bank -18.54 Alasi 14.30 Ludlow 20 Pt Win @ 1.2 ALASI arrives here right on top of her game and has made a pleasing start to her chase career. Paul Webber's mare scooped a Listed hurdle from Wetherby on her seasonal bow and then drew clear for a most authoritative success on her chasing debut at Huntingdon latest.

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Re: Short Priced Favs Diocles Won @ 1.2 Returns 24.00

Start Bank 100 Bets 41 Wins 24 Total Bet 433 Total Won 322.46 Loss 110.54 Strike Rate 58% Current Bank -10.54 Chesil Beach Boy 13.50 Winc. 20 Pt @ 2.88 It has taken CHESIL BEACH BOY some time to get the hang of the hurdling game but, despite the odd jumping error, he won nicely over C&D on Boxing Day. He's up 9lb now but if the penny has really dropped, he should take all the beating again.

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Re: Short Priced Favs Johnny Owen 13.30 Here 19 Pt Win @ 1.53 JOHNNY OWEN is forced to carry a 7lb penalty for scoring at Southwell over 2m this week and, having romped to a 19-length success on that occasion, back-to-back victories look the most likely outcome. He appeared to appreciate the ease in the ground and shouldn't be fazed by soft ground here, but he could be given something to think about by the consistent Realisation and the well-bred mare Cruise In Style.

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Re: Short Priced Favs Darlan 14.40 Taunton 19Pt Win @ 1.73 (BOG) Having suffered broken ribs at this track recently, A P McCoy will be forced to watch on as Barry Geraghty does the steering aboard the unbeaten DARLAN and, with more to come from the son of Milan, he is expected to have the beating of these.

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Re: Short Priced Favs Tomorrow Baile Anrai 15.10 Leic 19 Pt Win SP A select but interesting novices' chase for punters to solve but it might be worth siding with BAILE ANRAI. The Ian Williams charge is forced to carry a penalty for scoring in a Beginners' event at Towcester last time and is clearly held in high regard having been pitched into Grade 2 company at Cheltenham the time before. He finished within six lengths of the unbeaten and leading Neptune Novices Hurdle-fancy Fingal Bay in October last year and should go very close on a repeat of that performance.

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Re: Short Priced Favs Loose Preformer 14.15 Donc. 18 Pt Win @ 1.5 The unexposed LOOSE PREFORMER won nicely on his chasing debut over an extended 2m7f at Leicester last month and, with improvement likely, he will be fancied to complete the double.

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    • Monaco GP So Hamilton pulls a rabbit out of the hat and grabs pole for yet another Mercedes front row lockout. Lewis is an unbackable 1/3 shot to lead all of the way and this 78 lap traffic jam. I feel for Bottas as he was going quickest for most of the session and now finds himself stuck behind the best driver at Monaco in the race. He's a 4/1 shot to get past Hamilton so basically your betting 4/1 for Hamilton to retire?? Max Verstappen is now a 6/1 shot but is as short as 4/11 to finish on the podium so maybe the value has swung towards Vettel in this market who is a tempting 6/5 shot. H surely cant have another bad day like today, can he?? I'm struggling to see how Pierre Gasly is 4/7 to finish in the top 6 when Riccardo is 11/8, Gasly has a 3 place grid penalty to starts 8th while the Aussie starts 6th?? Leclerc who starts 16th is 13/8, that will be worth seeing if he finishes 6th!!! Lance Stroll struggles here and his car is pretty slow so backing him at 2/1 not to finish is worth a small bet to keep me interested in what could be a dull race. Bets Verstappen 7/2 Under 15.5 5/6 Vettel Top 3 6/5 Ricciardo Top 6 11/8 Stroll DNF 2/1  
    • Well done Steve, your first win in the Cup since May 2017 Unlucky Ken mate.      
    • Albert Ramos to beat Laslo Djere at 2.15 with betsson It's all about probability in this one and I rate the probability of this happening higher than the current odds of 2.15. Albert has been in the quarterfinal of Roland Garros before and knows how to play in grand slam events while Laslo is 1-6 in GS maindraw matches. I expect Laslo to run into some major difficulties against Albert. They met once before and Albert won 2-1 back in 2017 in Marrakech. Peter Gojowczyk to beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at 4.50 with Unibet Peter has beaten J-W before and most importantly on indoor hard and even in a 5 set Davis cup thriller by 8-6 in the decider. I think Peter could have enough to win this again even though his form isn't the best but neither is J-Ws form and I think clay suits Peter a little bit better and he's got the matchup advantage and knows how to find break opportunities in the J-W serve. Better chances of an upset than the odds suggest at least. Sveta Kuznetsova to beat (-1.5 sets) Kristina Kucova at 2.04 with Unibet Sveta could not have asked for a more favorable first round opponent. Kristina hates clay and she's never won a set in Roland Garros maindraw and her last two visits have been first round straight sets losses to Shuai Zhang 6-0 7-5 and Sam Stosur 7-5 6-0. She's done well to reach the maindraw from qualification but her opponents weren't really hard at all but she still had problems in last match against Katie Swan but won in a decider. Sveta should have many opportunities to break and could win in straight sets. Kateryna Kozlova to beat Bernarda Pera at 2.35 with Unibet Kateryna most famously knocked out reigning champion Jelena Ostapenko in straight sets last season in Roland Garros first round and later lost in second round. Bernarda Pera also won her first round match in Roland Garros last season and she beat Elena Vesnina but I don't rate that performance at all and she later also lost in second round. Anyway I don't see what makes Kateryna the underdog in this one. Kateryna has a higher ranking now (66), close to her career high 62 and I rate beating Jelena Ostapenko in straight sets higher than Bernarda beating a Elena Vesnina with retirement in her sights. Should be more  even odds here I think.  Roger Federer to beat (-6.5) Lorenzo Sonego at 1.97 with betsson I think I have to rate Rogers chances pretty high here. I don't think Lorenzo will get many looks into Rogers serve but Roger should find ways to find breakpoint opportunities on the Lorenzo serve. It might take some time but once Roger gets a break it could be a rout. This could even be covered in 4 sets.
    • I agree about Millman. He must have a chance to at least take a set as Sascha is all over the place right now. He's just won Geneva but it was such a struggle - apart from his first round every match was three sets and he only got the better of Jarry in a final set tie-break which it looked as though he did his best to throw away after building a big lead. It would be so ironic if this is to be the tournament where Sascha makes his grand slam breakthrough when his form is just not there after the last few years where he's been playing well but couldn't translate that into deep runs in the slams. I certainly wont be backing him and it'd be a brave person that did based on his season so far.
    • 2.10 Font - Demon Fou - win at 7/4 bog bet365
    • Few personal opinions apart from the picks above. I agree Millman is capable of an upset of Zverev.I'll be taking a side one on this one. I was looking forward to take on Cameron Norrie before Kyrgios pulled out.No one believes he's really ill n he hates clay season with a passion. Weren't he to take on a serious player in the 2nd round I'd have considered him to go on a bit further. Mikael Ymer will be decent n I expect him to win his first match art RG.I'd stay away from Jarry Vs DelPo.Most unpredicted 1st round match. Kohlschreiber is a formidable opponent especially this year but I think there's value in taking R Haase against him based on motivation.Also Lloyd Harris prefers hard courts to clay I don't see why he's the favourite to beat Rosol who despite being poor in form on a good day is decent on Clay.Thoughts @South_African_Punter
    • 3.15 fontwell risk and roll my win bet @ 1.73                  6.00 curragh hazraw my win bet @ 2.50                  4.25 curragh iridessa @12/1 my e/w bet                   5.00 curragh trading point @12/1 my e/w bet
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