Short Priced Favs

[Xtc12]

Re: Short Priced Favs Sizing Europe 15.20 Cheltenham 6Pt Win @ 1.91 SIZING EUROPE powered 15 lengths clear of Big Zeb in the Tied Cottage Chase at Punchestown last month, hot on the heels of his trouncing of Kauto Stone in the Tingle Creek at Sandown. Henry De Bromhead's brilliant 10-year-old stands head and shoulders above his contemporaries in the two-mile division at present and should retain his Champion Chase crown. Finian's Rainbow lost some admirers when caught by Somersby in the Victor Chandler Chase, but that was only his second run of the season and last year's Arkle runner-up could fare better back on a stiff track. Gauvain is not the easiest to predict but he is a three-time course winner and is capable of a big run if on a going day.

[Xtc12]

Re: Short Priced Favs Sizing Europe Lost Start Bank 100 Bets 97 Wins 64 Total Bet 1014 Total Won 1034.53 Profit 20.53 Strike Rate 65.9% Current Bank 120.53 Big Bucks 7 Pt Win @ 1.73 (BOG) I thought I'd never say it but, this is a tentative pick on Big Bucks.BIG BUCK'S continues to sweep all before him and has looked as good as ever in extending his unbeaten record to 15 this season, with a last-minute change of plan ultimately proving no problem to him when he caught Dynaste in the Cleeve Hurdle. He can't be opposed but may be facing the most serious threat to his crown because Oscar Whisky was classy enough to make the frame in last year's Champion Hurdle and has stayed 2m5f well enough here twice before an easy Kempton success. If he fails to get home, the next best option for forecast punters could be Thousand Stars because his only previous attempt at a distance in excess of three miles resulted in French Champion Hurdle glory, when stablemate Mourad was back in fourth.

[Xtc12]

Re: Short Priced Favs Big Bucks Won @ 1.83 Returns 12.81 Start Bank 100 Bets 98 Wins 65 Total Bet 1021 Total Won 1047.34 Profit 26.34 Strike Rate 66.3% Current Bank 126.34 Bens Folly 14.55 Fakenham 7 Pts Win @ 2.00 Ben's Folly only found one too good on his fencing bow at Newbury but has since pulled up when returned to timber last month.

[Xtc12]

Re: Short Priced Favs Bens Folly 2nd Start Bank 100 Bets 99 Wins 65 Total Bet 1028 Total Won 1047.34 Profit 19.34 Strike Rate 65.6% Current Bank 119.34 Captain Sunshine 14.50 Kempton 8 Pt Win @ 1.57 (BOG) CAPTAIN SUNSHINE threw away a prize at this course when hitting the deck and again jumped with little fluency at Ascot, but still managed to beat all bar Balder Succes. That one's stable companion Hindon Road represents the chief threat this time, and he showed what he is capable of when a close-up third in a novice event that was decent by Southwell standards. Natural Spring hasn't been seen for more than a year but is still best of the rest.

[Xtc12]

Re: Short Priced Favs Captain Sunshine Won @ 1.57 Returns 12.56 Start Bank 100 Bets 100 Wins 66 Total Bet 1036 Total Won 1059.90 Profit 23.90 Strike Rate 66% Current Bank 123.90 Mr Hudson 15.15 Newton Abbot 8 Pt Win @ 2.1 (BOG) This looks a match on paper between MR HUDSON and Golden Chieftain and the former is preferred. Paul Nicholls' gelding has earned a rating of 130 over fences following a pleasing start in a handicap at Taunton in December last year and is expected to get the better of Colin Tizzard's 132-rated chaser in receipt of 14lb. The latter does boast more experience over fences and that will stand him in good stead but Thelobstercatcher and River D'or might be forced to settle for supporting roles.

[Xtc12]

Re: Short Priced Favs Mr Hudson Won @ 2.25 Returns 18.00 Start Bank 100 Bets 101 Wins 67 Total Bet 1044 Total Won 1077.90 Profit 33.90 Strike Rate 66.3% Current Bank 133.9 ROI 3.2% Thats the end of this system till November, with a 3.3% return on investment. Will come back tomorrow and compare with last two years papertrail.

[skylark2009]

Re: Short Priced Favs Well done XTC, a nice profit made from what is usually considered to be a difficult price bracket to target (short prices). :clap I liked the way you turned this around after the slow start back into profitability. Just shows what consistent selection methods, staking and discipline can achieve.

[Xtc12]

Re: Short Priced Favs 3.2% ROI Below is a table for this system for the last three years. 09\10 and 10\11 were papertrailed. I think that 11\12 did ok as there was no profit between 19th Nov. and 19th Jan. that was 64 bets. The longest run without a profit in 09\10 was 12 bets while 10\11 was 36 bets. This years run of 64 goes a long way in proving that this system works while even on a long losing run. The total Strike Rate of 65.7% makes me wonder about the 34.3% losses. Next time I am going to run another thread side by side with this and pick another horse in the race and bet on it e/w, once the place odds are evens or better and try and catch some of the 34.3% of losers. Would like to hear what others think about this system. [TABLE=width: 395]

[TR] [TD=width: 74, bgcolor: transparent][/TD] [TD=width: 122, bgcolor: transparent][/TD] [TD=class: xl65, width: 73, bgcolor: transparent][/TD] [TD=class: xl65, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent]09\10 [/TD] [TD=class: xl65, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent]10\11 [/TD] [TD=class: xl65, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent]11\12 [/TD] [TD=class: xl65, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent]Total [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Runners [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent][/TD] [TD=class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent][/TD] [TD=class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent]92 [/TD] [TD=class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent]102 [/TD] [TD=class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent]101 [/TD] [TD=class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent]295 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Winners [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent][/TD] [TD=class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent][/TD] [TD=class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent]60 [/TD] [TD=class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent]67 [/TD] [TD=class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent]67 [/TD] [TD=class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent]194 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Total Bet [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent][/TD] [TD=class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent][/TD] [TD=class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent]306 [/TD] [TD=class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent]674 [/TD] [TD=class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent]1044 [/TD] [TD=class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent]2024 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Total Won [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent][/TD] [TD=class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent][/TD] [TD=class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent]365.9 [/TD] [TD=class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent]756.28 [/TD] [TD=class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent]1077.9 [/TD] [TD=class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent]2200.08 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Profit [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent][/TD] [TD=class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent][/TD] [TD=class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent]59.9 [/TD] [TD=class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent]82.28 [/TD] [TD=class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent]33.9 [/TD] [TD=class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent]176.08 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Strike Rate [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent][/TD] [TD=class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent][/TD] [TD=class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent]65.2 [/TD] [TD=class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent]65.68 [/TD] [TD=class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent]66.3 [/TD] [TD=class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent]65.7 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]P on I [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent][/TD] [TD=class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent][/TD] [TD=class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent]19.5 [/TD] [TD=class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent]12.2 [/TD] [TD=class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent]3.2 [/TD] [TD=class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent]8.69 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Machine]

Re: Short Priced Favs If betting @ the front end of the market is your thing then I suggest you read 'The Gamblers Handbook' by E. Lennox Figgis, the mathematician who wrote several reports for the gaming commission. It was written in 1951 and its contents still holds true today. :ok

[Xtc12]

Re: Short Priced Favs Back to see if I can beat last years ROI of 3.2%. Hoping to get a better start than last year. Will start with a bank of 100 again. All bets with Boyles (BOG) First up is....... Close Touch 14.05 Ascot 3 Pt Win @ 1.62 The quirky, but talented, Lordofthehouse came from a seemingly impossible position (after being very reluctant at the start) to win what has turned out to be a decent novices' hurdle at Wetherby earlier in the month he should mount a bold bid here if on his best behaviour, although the hat-trick seeking CLOSE TOUCH looks the safer option on this occasion. Representing last year's winning connections, the 4-year-old stepped up his Market Rasen bumper success when hacking up first time over hurdles at Fakenham last month (despite losing a shoe at the start) and any further improvement could see him hit the target again. Alan King's NH debutant Fair Trade adds further spice to the race.

[NeilM]

Edit- wrong thread

[Xtc12]

Re: Short Priced Favs Close Touch Won @ 1.62 Returns 4.86 Start Bank 100 Bets 1 Wins 1 Total Bet 3 Total Won 4.86 Profit 1.86 Strike Rate 100% Current Bank 101.86 ROI 62%

[Skips1974]

Re: Short Priced Favs Hi there followed this thread last year very interesting nice to see you start off with a winner good luck with this I will follow with interest

[Xtc12]

Re: Short Priced Favs Balder Succes 12.20 Haydock 3 Pt Win @ 1.57 (BOG) Hollow Tree and Balder Succes look the 2 to focus on, the latter getting the vote on these terms. If this was a handicap Hollow Tree would be 9lb better, which gives the vote to Balder Succes, even though there is not much between them.

[Xtc12]

Re: Short Priced Favs Balder Succes Won @ 1.57 Returns 4.71 Start Bank 100 Bets 2 Wins 2 Total Bet 6 Total Won 9.57 Profit 3.57 Strike Rate 100% Current Bank 103.57 ROI 59.5%

[Xtc12]

Re: Short Priced Favs Snake Eyes 13.00 Kempton 3 Pt Win @ 1.15 SNAKE EYES made a pleasing debut behind the very useful Clondaw Kaempfer in a Fairyhouse bumper back in April and he can be expected to take all the beating on his hurdling debut this afternoon.

[jayalexander]

Haven't seen the race but lost by a neck. Form was franked by Clondaw, too :(

[Xtc12]

Re: Short Priced Favs Led by two lengths coming over the last and got caught on the run in. It makes me think why do I pick an odds on fav. with McCoy up on it. Snake Eyes Lost Start Bank 100 Bets 3 Wins 2 Total Bet 9 Total Won 9.57 Profit 0.57 Strike Rate 66.6% Current Bank 100.57 ROI 6.3%

[Xtc12]

Re: Short Priced Favs Just did a check on last years races. 2011/12 No. of Losers 34 jockey with most losers : Jason Maguire 17.6% Lowest losing odds 1.25 X 3 Including Snake Eyes @ 1.2 today Jason Maguire & AP McCoy have 25.7% of the losers

[skylark2009]

Re: Short Priced Favs

Led by two lengths coming over the last and got caught on the run in. It makes me think why do I pick an odds on fav. with McCoy up on it.

Just done a quick check on this through Proform. I.e A P McCoy rides when SP is odds on in the market. He has had a 62.34% S/R since 1997 from 1609 rides, with a small loss of 41.41pts to level stakes at SP. He's had nearly a 1000 more rides at odds on than the next best (Richard Johnson with 646 odds on rides, S/R of 58.51%). Your selection today (even if it did lose), looked all the stronger with such stats. I hope your short priced favs continues to go as well this year for you Xtc, as it did last year.:hope

[Xtc12]

Re: Short Priced Favs thanks for that Skylark, that stat surprises me about AP, I just hate when he is on an odds on fav., much prefer Geraghty or Ruby. Where will I find this Proform?

[skylark2009]

Re: Short Priced Favs If you google it you should be able to find it (it is subscription software so I won't post a link) . Alternatively you could try Horseracebase, which is probably similar and is stickied in the horse racing forum here on PL.

[NeilM]

He has had a 62.34% S/R since 1997 from 1609 rides, with a small loss of 41.41pts to level stakes at SP. He's had nearly a 1000 more rides at odds on than the next best (Richard Johnson with 646 odds on rides, S/R of 58.51%).

That's quite a hefty loss: if I was making that sort of loss over that period in my odds on account (2.76 points per annum) I'd have packed in betting years ago. Obviously it's down to the number of rides he gets but it is interesting that statistically Johnson isn't that much worse. I wrote a training document a while ago (copies available with company references taken out if anyone wants a copy) highlighting his actual performance versus the perception. It is interesting however that on these figures he has around two odds on rides a week, on average: instinct suggests it would be lower. Are these figures including non-UK rides?

[Xtc12]

Re: Short Priced Favs Hidden Identity 12.30 Lingfield 2 Pts Win @ 1.5 Buoyed by a profitable day at Ludlow yesterday, Richard Johnson can steer HIDDEN IDENTITY to more success in the opener. Forced to give a stone in weight to each of her rivals, the C&D winner looks a class apart on the form book and she was worth much more than the winning margin of three lengths when scoring from Shesha Bear here latest.

[Xtc12]

Re: Short Priced Favs Well how ironic that Hidden Identity was beaten while being ridden by Richard johnson. I think the weight cost him in the ground. Start Bank 100 Bets 4 Wins 2 Total Bet 11 Total Won 9.57 Loss 1.43 Strike Rate 50% Current Bank 98.57 ROI -13%

[Skips1974]

Re: Short Priced Favs Hi top weight in heavy going was to much for him did not expect a 25/1 to beat him but that's racing

[Xtc12]

Re: Short Priced Favs Oscar Hill 12.35 Taunton 1 Pt Win @ SP no EMP Many will argue that OSCAR HILL has plenty on his plate under this weight in testing conditions, but Gordon Elliott's charge handled similarly soft ground with consummate ease when dropped in class at Huntingdon earlier this month and a similar level of performance display should suffice here.

[Xtc12]

Re: Short Priced Favs Uscar Hill Won @ 1.72 returns 1.72 Start Bank 100 Bets 5 Wins 3 Total Bet 12 Total Won 11.29 Loss 0.71 Strike Rate 60% Current Bank 99.29 ROI -5.9%

[Xtc12]

Re: Short Priced Favs Rick 12.50 Doncaster 4 Pt Win @ 1.73 (BOG) RICK got the better of Blackstairmountain in a hurdle event at Punchestown in January '11 and, having finished a respectable seventh in the Grade 3 Silver Cross handicap behind Cape Tribulation at Aintree in April, he very much sets the standard in this novice chase. A close up second at Hexham on his debut for John Ferguson and chasing bow, he's entitled to have come on for that outing and should be good enough against these rivals. Of those, Mr Supreme and Jack The Gent look the most likely dangers.

[Xtc12]

Re: Short Priced Favs Rick 2nd Never got near the winner. Start Bank 100 Bets 6 Wins 3 Total Bet 16 Total Won 11.29 Loss 4.71 Strike Rate 50% Current Bank 95.29 ROI -29% For tomorrow.......can only be one horse Big Bucks 14.00 Newbury 5 Pt Win @ 1.10 (BOG) Need I say more?